Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[Chump Change]

We wish he was worth that. If Reid's form line continues he'd lose the #1 player mantle to Walter.

It amazes me how the rhetoric around Reid differs from that which Hewett got last year. Hewett was playing as a forward in the WAFL, had a season with low continuity & fell from a possible top 5 pick going into 2022 to our 2nd pick.

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He'd have to drop off a fair way. But we can only judge him on current value. Trading #1 for 2x top 10 picks with at least one of them being outside the top 5 is crazy.

He kicked 3x first quarter goals the other day. None were amazing but he just gets in the right spot. he has a way of making things happen.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

He kicked 3x first quarter goals the other day. None were amazing but he just gets in the right spot. he has a way of making things happen.

Playing out of the goal square as a 186cm forward isn't getting to the right spots. Reid had no impact against SA and the way he kicked his goals highlights that fact.

If you watched Reid against SA and just watched Sydney destroy us then you should really question your ranking of a player who struggles to get involved around the ground, who instead moves from stoppage to stoppage when playing midfield and struggles to get involved in general play.





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[Chump Change]

Playing out of the goal square as a 186cm forward isn't getting to the right spots. Reid had no impact against SA and the way he kicked his goals highlights that fact.

If you watched Reid against SA and just watched Sydney destroy us then you should really question your ranking of a player who struggles to get involved around the ground, who instead moves from stoppage to stoppage when playing midfield and struggles to get involved in general play.


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Sounds like you're saying Harley is a spud?

 

[briztoon]

Sounds like you're saying Harley is a spud?

He's saying Harley isn't a mid.

 

[YeoGabbaGabba]

Harley: “I’m family oriented” and bloke was concerned about a 2.5-3hr drive if he’s drafted to a Melbourne based club.

JHF’s decision was definitely influenced by the ‘go-home’ rubbish, but also was talking about another “unstable year at North”.

Screams the same thing once again.

Would be nuts if we didn’t trade it in all honesty in my opinion. One 18 year old kid does not have a slight impact on the result from today. There are that many issues that need fixing before worrying about top-end talent, with no guarantees Reid even will be.

 

[Chump Change]

Harley: “I’m family oriented” and bloke was concerned about a 2.5-3hr drive if he’s drafted to a Melbourne based club.

JHF’s decision was definitely influenced by the ‘go-home’ rubbish, but also was talking about another “unstable year at North”.

Screams the same thing once again.

Would be nuts if we didn’t trade it in all honesty in my opinion. One 18 year old kid does not have a slight impact on the result from today. There are that many issues that need fixing before worrying about top-end talent, with no guarantees Reid even will be.

We're not trying to draft an 18 year old to lessen a loss. We're not drafting someone to come 10th. We're trying to identify and draft top end talent to take us to our next flag/s. Top end talent is the most important factor and the hardest to find. When you're at the top of the draft, it's the best chance you have at finding it.

 

[YeoGabbaGabba]

We're not trying to draft an 18 year old to lessen a loss. We're not drafting someone to come 10th. We're trying to identify and draft top end talent to take us to our next flag/s. Top end talent is the most important factor and the hardest to find. When you're at the top of the draft, it's the best chance you have at finding it.

And there’s no better way to kill a players potential by throwing them into the deep end from day 1 (losing multiple games by 100+), especially when said talent is a flight risk

 

[Chump Change]

And there’s no better way to kill a players potential by throwing them into the deep end from day 1 (losing multiple games by 100+), especially when said talent is a flight risk

Whether we draft 1x top 10 pick, or 2 (or 3), we're still chucking whoever it is into the deep end.

 

[CountryLad]

Playing out of the goal square as a 186cm forward isn't getting to the right spots. Reid had no impact against SA and the way he kicked his goals highlights that fact.

If you watched Reid against SA and just watched Sydney destroy us then you should really question your ranking of a player who struggles to get involved around the ground, who instead moves from stoppage to stoppage when playing midfield and struggles to get involved in general play.





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The kid played an average game after a 5 week lay off. He’s been best on ground in a number of other games he’s played this year. Judging him on just his last couple of performances as a bust as pick one is very harsh. He’s had no continuity of a side playing for Bendigo, Academy, Carlton and now Vic Country.

I’ve seen some of your posts, you’re clearly not a Reid fan which is fine. Everyone can have an opinion.

However there is a reason why the kid is considered the clear favourite as pick one this year.

Let’s just let the rest of the year play out before making a final judgment.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

Sounds like you're saying Harley is a spud?

No way, his one on one ability alone makes him a good prospect.

I'm just saying given the way the modern game is going you need to be able to get from contest to contest quickly and then be able to have the legs to move from that contest.

The best players hunt for the ball inside and outside. Oliver, Warner, Cripps at his best. When you look at Reid's post stoppage/ post contest work and he's nowhere. He doesn't hunt the ball, doesn't make himself available as an outlet by getting dangerous and he doesn't accumulate on the outside.

Some will say he doesn't need as many possessions because he's an impact player, the problem is you can't know how much of this impact derives from his physical advantage he'll lose next year.






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[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

No way, his one on one ability alone makes him a good prospect.

I'm just saying given the way the modern game is going you need to be able to get from contest to contest quickly and then be able to have the legs to move from that contest.

The best players hunt for the ball inside and outside. Oliver, Warner, Cripps at his best. When you look at Reid's post stoppage/ post contest work and he's nowhere. He doesn't hunt the ball, doesn't make himself available as an outlet by getting dangerous and he doesn't accumulate on the outside.

Some will say he doesn't need as many possessions because he's an impact player, the problem is you can't know how much of this impact derives from his physical advantage he'll lose next year.






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Why compare him to players he isn’t. His best comparison is Dustin Martin. The guy who will play HFF and have short midfield bursts.

We may need midfielders but in the top 10, its slim pickings with more KPP and flankers looking to be picked in that area. We are best to pick Harley, trade for Gold Coast pick and maybe get Curtin and then use the later picks for midfielders

For more immediate help we can grab Robertson, Fisher and give Shuey one more year. We will suck again nest year, so 2024 when the midfielders are more prevalent we can grab a few

 

[ThePuma #9]

No way, his one on one ability alone makes him a good prospect.

I'm just saying given the way the modern game is going you need to be able to get from contest to contest quickly and then be able to have the legs to move from that contest.

The best players hunt for the ball inside and outside. Oliver, Warner, Cripps at his best. When you look at Reid's post stoppage/ post contest work and he's nowhere. He doesn't hunt the ball, doesn't make himself available as an outlet by getting dangerous and he doesn't accumulate on the outside.

Some will say he doesn't need as many possessions because he's an impact player, the problem is you can't know how much of this impact derives from his physical advantage he'll lose next year.






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Valid points but what makes him so appealing is he has attributes that could translate into a very good midfielder with time. Happy to take the player on with a fend off or a spin from traffic and shows some real skills around the ball. Doesn’t do it enough to be considered a midfielder at this point though. That much I agree.

I see someone who is a bloody good mark, reads the play both back and forward pretty well and has attributes that could make him a very devastating midfielder if he continues to improve.

We need Mids badly but sadly this isn’t the year of Mids, it’s talls. I have preferred for so long now to take Reid instead of risking breaking the pick down into multiple picks/players/positions less required but after todays performance I feel the rot has sunk in so deep we need as many bites at the cherry as we can get to **** this lot off as quickly as possible.

Reid may be a luxury we just can’t afford

 

[Hawks_4478]

No way, his one on one ability alone makes him a good prospect.

I'm just saying given the way the modern game is going you need to be able to get from contest to contest quickly and then be able to have the legs to move from that contest.

The best players hunt for the ball inside and outside. Oliver, Warner, Cripps at his best. When you look at Reid's post stoppage/ post contest work and he's nowhere. He doesn't hunt the ball, doesn't make himself available as an outlet by getting dangerous and he doesn't accumulate on the outside.

Some will say he doesn't need as many possessions because he's an impact player, the problem is you can't know how much of this impact derives from his physical advantage he'll lose next year.






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Who would you pick ahead of Reid in the draft?

 

[Eastern Rangers]

The kid played an average game after a 5 week lay off. He’s been best on ground in a number of other games he’s played this year. Judging him on just his last couple of performances as a bust as pick one is very harsh. He’s had no continuity of a side playing for Bendigo, Academy, Carlton and now Vic Country.

I’ve seen some of your posts, you’re clearly not a Reid fan which is fine. Everyone can have an opinion.

However there is a reason why the kid is considered the clear favourite as pick one this year.

Let’s just let the rest of the year play out before making a final judgment.

The kid played an average game after a 5 week lay off. He’s been best on ground in a number of other games he’s played this year. Judging him on just his last couple of performances as a bust as pick one is very harsh. He’s had no continuity of a side playing for Bendigo, Academy, Carlton and now Vic Country.

I’ve seen some of your posts, you’re clearly not a Reid fan which is fine. Everyone can have an opinion.

However there is a reason why the kid is considered the clear favourite as pick one this year.

Let’s just let the rest of the year play out before making a final judgment.

Lots of players face a lack of continuity due to swapping teams, and players who get injured or sick often fall down the draft order subsequently.

He's been pretty mediocre since playing against Port and even then people celebrated some pretty dumb football. Playing on into trouble making multiple highlight clips.

Reid was also named in VicC bests v SA and his VFL performances were not noteworthy in spite of commentary so mind my skepticism.
.






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[Eastern Rangers]

Why compare him to players he isn’t. His best comparison is Dustin Martin. The guy who will play HFF and have short midfield bursts.

We may need midfielders but in the top 10, its slim pickings with more KPP and flankers looking to be picked in that area. We are best to pick Harley, trade for Gold Coast pick and maybe get Curtin and then use the later picks for midfielders

Because Reid isn't Martin. Go watch Martin's U18 footage.

Dustin Martin was a 90kg beef cake who could exit a stoppage, put on the after burners and run around opponents. He leaned up at AFL level and added upper body strength to his explosive pace.



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[eaglespremiers]

He's been pretty mediocre since playing against Port and even then people celebrated some pretty dumb football. Playing on into trouble making multiple highlight clips.

IMO that's a really weird interpretation of his game.
I thought his hands in marks in the wet were phenomenal and his choice to play on often paid dividends for his team with inside 50 opportunities.
Certainly I'd rate it above Wardlaw's game against Collingwood VFL side last year (which gets many plaudits).
For reference for others, here are some highlights from his first three quarters of that game:


Also, since then, what has he played?
A couple of games with the Carlton VFL side, the half a game for the AFL Academy against the Carlton VFL side and then the game on Sunday in the Champs against South Australia.
Given the step up to playing VFL I thought he transitioned well and improved with his second outing. The AFL Academy game was not the best for Harley and then he was played full forward for about two and a half quarters in the U18 champs game before he was moved on-ball. Sure, his early goals may not have been that impressive (didn't seem to hurt Watson's four goal haul the week before) but the opportunities for the VIC Country forwards dried up dramatically from about halfway through the first until after halftime. There were far more disappointing players out there like Archer Reid, Zane Duursma, Angus Hastie, Cooper Simpson, Joel Freijah, Tom Anastasopoulos and Harry Demattia who are all considered good to great prospects this year but who were all down on output and beaten by their SA counterparts.
Suffice to say I don't think we should go completely cold on him (as this board appears to have done) on one perceived poor performance.
There's a lot of Harley's year left to play before we can ascertain his full worth at the selection table in November (or the trade table in October).

 

[Aarick13]

If we were to split the picks in part due a perceived go home factor, who would we be drafting instead. Just WA players like Curtain or Edwards or are we backing ourselves that if we get some lower rated non-WA players we can keep them here even though we will be throwing them into the deep end as well.

If Reid is ranked as the best player in the draft you take him and if he wants to leave in a years time you deal with it then. We have a good record of keeping most players that we want to keep.

 

[Priddis Is Done]

Can we trade pick 1 for Warlord and change?

 

[Ambrose Burnside]

Whether we draft 1x top 10 pick, or 2 (or 3), we're still chucking whoever it is into the deep end.

Yeah this.

Why shit teams even bother with the draft is beyond me.

 

[shooshka]

Lots of players face a lack of continuity due to swapping teams, and players who get injured or sick often fall down the draft order subsequently.

He's been pretty mediocre since playing against Port and even then people celebrated some pretty dumb football. Playing on into trouble making multiple highlight clips.

Reid was also named in VicC bests v SA and his VFL performances were not noteworthy in spite of commentary so mind my skepticism.
.






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The lack of continuity is not just game day though… it is training and coaching (and let’s not discount the travel).

He’s commuting at least an hour each way for Bendigo training. 3-4 hours (assuming overnight stays) for games in Melbourne.

His natural attributes are elite, but he clearly has significant improvement scope in a professional environment also.

That is what’s exciting. The Hewitt comparison earlier probably wasn’t too far off (but looked at in a different way), with the benefit of a few preseasons his natural football ability will lead to increased output.


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[Wooshaaaa]

That doesn't take into consideration the quality of those games.

Go get a spreadsheet, put every draft from 2009 - 2018 or there abouts, and image you have pick 1, and then image you have pick 5 and 9.

Now have a look at the average #1 midfielder, as well as the precentage chance of picking such a player.
Then look at the odds of what you get with #5 and #9.

You'll discover the chance of getting an absolute midfield gun with #1 is high, and the odds of getting an above average midfielder is over 80%.
But when you have 2 picks between say #5 and 10#, the percentage chance drops to below 50%, and average quality of player also drops. The chance is more than reasonable of striking out with both picks.

#1 is worth more than 2x top 10 picks this year.

Who said anything about mid vs non mid


I talking pure games played over a career.

Any player in this comp that is good enough to play 200+ games has a reasonable level of talent and resilience.

I'll take 3 of them over one amy day

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[GoEaglesGoSGIO]

Almost feel this is a pointless discussion

Simmo has 100 percent made up his mind to trade pick 1 away for multiple picks. I think it’s 2 top 10s and a 2Nd rounder

 

[LordLucifer]

You don't need more U/18 players, you have too many of them already. Your immediate focus should be on securing older 'senior ready' guys who can withstand the rigours of AFL footy in the 22-26yo bracket. Whilst taking the best player in the draft sounds nice, it won't do much for your onfield efforts next year.

If you can trade #1 for 2-3 decent senior players (and there will be a club or two prepared to cough up a decent package), then your people would be nuts to knock it back.

 

[Priddis Is Done]

You don't need more U/18 players, you have too many of them already. Your immediate focus should be on securing older 'senior ready' guys who can withstand the rigours of AFL footy in the 22-26yo bracket. Whilst taking the best player in the draft sounds nice, it won't do much for your onfield efforts next year.

If you can trade #1 for 2-3 decent senior players (and there will be a club or two prepared to cough up a decent package), then your people would be nuts to knock it back.

I think you meant to say that we have too many under 20 to 22 to players.

In which case we do but a fair chunck are garbage or average.

Trading pick 1 for existing players makes us a mid table club at best in a few years.

 

[Eaglemaniac]

Almost feel this is a pointless discussion

Simmo has 100 percent made up his mind to trade pick 1 away for multiple picks. I think it’s 2 top 10s and a 2Nd rounder

Where did he say that mate? I’m interested to know if he’s said that publicly?