Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[WCE_phil]

No draft is completely uncompromised.

The period Tassie starts they should suspend or end the lop sided academy access rights of the Qld and NSW clubs.

I said uncompromised in relation to Tasmania. Next years draft is highly compromised due to FS and Academy however there are looking to be 3-4 absolute top tier mids in the next years draft that aren't tied to clubs.

If Josh Smillie spends the next 18 months playing and further developing his inside midfield craft and centrework then he is my early number 1 pick favourie for next year.

 

[WCE_phil]

End of the day if an expansion club drafts an academy kid that's one less quality player removed from the Vic,SA and WA talent pool.

The more Qld and NSW players picked early would suggest the talent pool is larger not smaller.

It these academy kids weren't top 20 picks those clubs would be selecting Vic, SA and WA kids. Now THAT does reduces the available talent to everyone else.

The SA & WA talent pools are reducing. The money isn't being pumped into the high level development programs for footy here from a young age like it is in other states.

Then you primarily have Victorian top end talent, primarily Vic Metro telling recruiting teams in lots of different ways they don't want to leave Melbourne.

I'm fine with the academies but there should be no discount on the players and imo they shouldn't be able to be paid for with more than 2 picks. If that means there is then a shortfall for next year sure they keep the player but their future picks get dropped down.

 

[ghostbat12]

The SA & WA talent pools are reducing. The money isn't being pumped into the high level development programs for footy here from a young age like it is in other states.

Then you primarily have Victorian top end talent, primarily Vic Metro telling recruiting teams in lots of different ways they don't want to leave Melbourne.

I'm fine with the academies but there should be no discount on the players and imo they shouldn't be able to be paid for with more than 2 picks. If that means there is then a shortfall for next year sure they keep the player but their future picks get dropped down.

talent pools are primarily reducing because of demographic collapse happening in the world. There are now 20% less 18 year olds in Australia than there were simply 10 years ago and it’s getting worse year on year.

Good luck to those retiring from now onwards for next 30 years (me included). No pension as there won’t be people paying for it. Mass immigration won’t be enough.

I predict retirement accomodation in Asia will be a big thing as people will need somewhere to die peacefully with super they have. It won’t be possible here as a) women no longer want children, career is meaningful and b) generally in west, people don’t look after their parents. Only looking what can be pillaged when they die.

Anyway, peak talent in afl was in a period of 10-20 years ago. Which will also be interesting for poor clubs as their fan base (like everyones) will fall dramatically. But when you don’t have many to start with, effect will be more horrific.

 

[ZergMinion]

talent pools are primarily reducing because of demographic collapse happening in the world. There are now 20% less 18 year olds in Australia than there were simply 10 years ago and it’s getting worse year on year.

 

[ghostbat12]

FACTS. See how there are 20% more 30 year olds than 18 year olds? Which means talent pool is 20% lower than 10ish years ago.

 

[ZergMinion]

View attachment 1719705

FACTS. See how there are 20% more 30 year olds than 18 year olds? Which means talent pool is 20% lower than 10ish years ago.

And yet you are still wrong:

Five year age groups | Australia | Community profile

profile.id.com.au

There were 52000 odd more 15-19 year olds in 2021 than in 2011.

 

[Tyberious Funk]

View attachment 1719705

FACTS. See how there are 20% more 30 year olds than 18 year olds? Which means talent pool is 20% lower than 10ish years ago.

Dude, do you even stats?

That's a distribution chart for 2023 only. It doesn't show changes between 2023 and 2013.

FYI, population of 18 and under... in Q4 2012, 5.8m. In Q4 2022, 6.4.

 

[amazingjoshy]

Sooo.....

that Harley Reid goes alright

 

[DanWCE]

Thank **** for my pension

 

[Bender_]

Possibly the worst stat extrapolating I've ever seen.

 

[WCE_phil]

TBH anyone who consistently works for 40 years with paid super should have absolutely no need for a pension. So in essence anyone who started working full time after 1990 should have no need for a pension unless they are disabled or have acquired a disability during their lives. For those of us who started before then, you potentially have an excuse.

 

[ghostbat12]

Dude, do you even stats?

That's a distribution chart for 2023 only. It doesn't show changes between 2023 and 2013.

FYI, population of 18 and under... in Q4 2012, 5.8m. In Q4 2022, 6.4.

I hadn’t included immigration in stats, but all those 30 year olds were 18, 12 years ago, yeh? But good discussion.

Also think there is a big difference between 2023 and 2021 and if numbers are more filled with immigrants, they are less likely to be involved with football. Not sure if anyone can filter out immigration demographic.

Good discussion as I am concerned about what all this means in general (not just football).

 

[ZergMinion]

I hadn’t included immigration in stats, but all those 30 year olds were 18, 12 years ago, yeh? But good discussion.

Also think there is a big difference between 2023 and 2021 and if numbers are more filled with immigrants, they are less likely to be involved with football. Not sure if anyone can filter out immigration demographic.

Good discussion as I am concerned about what all this means in general (not just football).

There's a graph in this link that shows number of annual births registered since 1933:

Births, Australia, 2022

Statistics about births and fertility rates for Australia, states and territories, and sub-state regions

www.abs.gov.au

While the fertility rate is definitely dropping, the number of births is actually pretty stable over the last decade, so the talent pool isn't shrinking.

Lots of valid concerns about the aging population, but it's not hurting the footy

 

[Tyberious Funk]

Lots of valid concerns about the aging population, but it's not hurting the footy

Particularly when you consider that we've barely tapped into the potential of the NSW/Qld markets, and the overseas market. People like to take the piss out of Mason Cox, but the opportunity to pull some serious talent out of the US is huge, assuming the right approach is taken.

 

[Keys]

So reading the last page or so if we do end up with pick 1, we need to trade it for fertility drugs

 

[bzparkes]

TBH anyone who consistently works for 40 years with paid super should have absolutely no need for a pension. So in essence anyone who started working full time after 1990 should have no need for a pension unless they are disabled or have acquired a disability during their lives. For those of us who started before then, you potentially have an excuse.

Not really. Lower income earners may end up with less than $500k, which might be enough to live for 10 years, if they don't spend on anything other than daily living. I guess with the retirement age getting higher and higher, most people won't even live that additional 10 years anyway, which appears to be by design.

Most younger people these days are severely struggling to get into the housing market, because income obviously doesn't grow anywhere near as fast as house prices - they are simply being priced out. Yes there's other investments they could be getting into but they come with significant risks/pitfalls that many don't understand, or are unwilling to take. You're never going to get rich working 9-5 but you should be able to live comfortable post retirement, in your own home, if you're worked 40+ years. That simply isn't the case anymore and will be even less so in the future.

Then there's the fact that a lot of people can't even afford to salary sacrifice, as they're already paying high rents whilst sharing with other people.

Study is getting more and more expensive and a lot of the thing people are studying at University are highly competitive fields, so they struggle to find any meaningful employment once they leave Uni + the ridiculous fees they have to pay back after the start working.

Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of financial decisions young people can make early on to set themselves up for future success later in life, however that requires a range of positive influences in their lives, such as parents educating their children financially from a young age, friends not peer-pressuring them to spend money doing random shit, self-restraint, etc.

When the average income earner looks at what they earn vs the price of property these days, they kind of just give up, to be honest.

 

[Rowan18]

Not really. Lower income earners may end up with less than $500k, which might be enough to live for 10 years, if they don't spend on anything other than daily living. I guess with the retirement age getting higher and higher, most people won't even live that additional 10 years anyway, which appears to be by design.

Most younger people these days are severely struggling to get into the housing market, because income obviously doesn't grow anywhere near as fast as house prices - they are simply being priced out. Yes there's other investments they could be getting into but they come with significant risks/pitfalls that many don't understand, or are unwilling to take. You're never going to get rich working 9-5 but you should be able to live comfortable post retirement, in your own home, if you're worked 40+ years. That simply isn't the case anymore and will be even less so in the future.

Then there's the fact that a lot of people can't even afford to salary sacrifice, as they're already paying high rents whilst sharing with other people.

Study is getting more and more expensive and a lot of the thing people are studying at University are highly competitive fields, so they struggle to find any meaningful employment once they leave Uni + the ridiculous fees they have to pay back after the start working.

Don't get me wrong, there's a lot of financial decisions young people can make early on to set themselves up for future success later in life, however that requires a range of positive influences in their lives, such as parents educating their children financially from a young age, friends not peer-pressuring them to spend money doing random s**t, self-restraint, etc.

When the average income earner looks at what they earn vs the price of property these days, they kind of just give up, to be honest.

House prices being unaffordable doesn't apply to Perth yet, but it likely will in the next few years (if immigration goes the way they're planning).

Australia will need to slow down immigration in the future for housing supply to catch up and prices to come down in real terms overtime. Or the State Governments will have to step in to build a hell of a lot of state housing. This will be a real problem for the bankrupt states that don't pay their way or have been relying on immigrant cashflows to prop up the economy (Victoria, Tasmania, likely South Australia).

 

[bzparkes]

House prices being unaffordable doesn't apply to Perth yet, but it likely will in the next few years (if immigration goes the way they're planning).

Australia will need to slow down immigration in the future for housing supply to catch up and prices to come down in real terms overtime. Or the State Governments will have to step in to build a hell of a lot of state housing. This will be a real problem for the bankrupt states that don't pay their way or have been relying on immigrant cashflows to prop up the economy (Victoria, Tasmania, likely South Australia).

Yeah, I've got friends who just bought a house in Perth, after spending the last 3 years looking for a place in Sydney/Brisbane(they live in Sydney). They'd much prefer to stay where they are but it's completely unaffordable, despite the both of them earning over $100k.

The house they bought is 30 minutes from Perth CBD, for around $650k. The equivalent in Sydney would cost them at least $1.5 million, if not more. Prices there are obscene.

 

[Kwality]

When the average income earner looks at what they earn vs the price of property these days, they kind of just give up, to be honest.

The longer you are in the workforce the more you earn & the better the opportunity to accumulate. Decisions like having kids always limit the ability to tuck a bit away for a rainy day or a deposit to get you on to the property ladder as distinct from the forever home.

 

[Obeanie1]

Sooo.....

that Harley Reid goes alright

Are you sure though.

Harley's stat's don't back that up lately.

In fact based on recent stat's odds are he doesn't get drafted.

 

[bzparkes]

The longer you are in the workforce the more you earn & the better the opportunity to accumulate. Decisions like having kids always limit the ability to tuck a bit away for a rainy day.

Oh no disagreement there, however it'd be nice to retire at 65 and enjoy a good 10+ years, instead of 75 and kick the bucket within 2.

 

[bzparkes]

Harley's stat's don't back that up lately.

In fact based on recent stat's odds are he doesn't get drafted.

Yep, up until the game on the weekend he couldn't even get a touch

 

[ROO DOGG]

Fu#k, so unless the eagles have enough superannuation we cant afford a Harley? Hope Nizzy's been paying his super.

 

[ziad]

Sooo.....

that Harley Reid goes alright

But there are 52000 more Harleys than a few years ago! (joking, for those that take every social media comment as gospel)

Seriously, I would like to see the AFL investment in youth development across regions. I know they are doing plenty in NSW and have done so for 10-20 years.

The Riverina region (southern NSW) is a very strong AFL area - and always has been. Ignored by the Eagles to my mind obver years but now with AFL support is a strong GWS development area. Good kids there play for Murray Bush Rangers or are offered footy scholarships to schools. In the past Sydney again with AFL support have done well out of the region. I dont hear of the AFL providing such support in WA and the WAFL appears a self centered basket case.

As an aside, imigration is significant and while the population is growing the % disposed to AFL is possibly declining. 50% of Sydney adults were born OS as a throw away. The AFL in NSW are attempting to address the non traditional ethnic groups. I must conceed they are quite professional in their development work and support to junior clubs.

 

[Priddis Is Done]

talent pools are primarily reducing because of demographic collapse happening in the world. There are now 20% less 18 year olds in Australia than there were simply 10 years ago and it’s getting worse year on year.

Good luck to those retiring from now onwards for next 30 years (me included). No pension as there won’t be people paying for it. Mass immigration won’t be enough.

I predict retirement accomodation in Asia will be a big thing as people will need somewhere to die peacefully with super they have. It won’t be possible here as a) women no longer want children, career is meaningful and b) generally in west, people don’t look after their parents. Only looking what can be pillaged when they die.

Anyway, peak talent in afl was in a period of 10-20 years ago. Which will also be interesting for poor clubs as their fan base (like everyones) will fall dramatically. But when you don’t have many to start with, effect will be more horrific.

On a tangent...

But I'm basing my retirement on the government being broke and there being no pension.

I don't want to rely on anyone. But that's just me.