Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[06Premiers]

Pension Is Done

 

[Frederico_WA]

Particularly when you consider that we've barely tapped into the potential of the NSW/Qld markets, and the overseas market. People like to take the piss out of Mason Cox, but the opportunity to pull some serious talent out of the US is huge, assuming the right approach is taken.

 

[Keys]

Obvious path if we do end up with pick 1 is to take the unanimously rated best player. Unlikely we’d be criticised for that and it’d be exciting watching him develop.

Before then though we need to determine if Reid is actually the best player for us when compared to the players that would be available should we split pick 1

It should be pointed out that if we do draft Reid we will likely never get a better trade offer than what we will for pick 1

The beauty of pick 1 is we aren’t obligated to trade it so it will be up to other clubs to come up with an offer too good to refuse.

The advantage of splitting pick one is we could bring in two, or possibly three, talented players rather than one admittedly more talented player. We could then use our later picks to improve our draft hand for next year

There’ll be a lot of options and permutations so Duane Massey and his team of recruiters are going to need to do a power of work getting their draft board right so the best decision can be made

 

[Obeanie1]

Pension Is Done

How much longer can Pridi....I mean pensions be debated?

Just fold the pension and get over it.

 

[Frederico_WA]

I don't want to rely on anyone. But that's just me.

It's not about relying on the Gov't (we can't lol) its about taking what we deserve. Those f*ers take and take and take from us so the least they can do is give us a .......

.... Harley Reid is the beez-knees. We need to keep the #1 pick and plan for him, Ginbey and Long to be the new Judd/Cuz/Kerr.

 

[amazingjoshy]

Obvious path if we do end up with pick 1 is to take the unanimously rated best player. Unlikely we’d be criticised for that and it’d be exciting watching him develop.

Before then though we need to determine if Reid is actually the best player for us when compared to the players that would be available should we split pick 1

It should be pointed out that if we do draft Reid we will likely never get a better trade offer than what we will for pick 1

The beauty of pick 1 is we aren’t obligated to trade it so it will be up to other clubs to come up with an offer too good to refuse.

The advantage of splitting pick one is we could bring in two, or possibly three, talented players rather than one admittedly more talented player. We could then use our later picks to improve our draft hand for next year

There’ll be a lot of options and permutations so Duane Massey and his team of recruiters are going to need to do a power of week getting their draft board right so the best decision can be made

tldr: stop talking shit and get back on topic

 

[WCE_phil]

It's not about relying on the Gov't (we can't lol) its about taking what we deserve. Those f*ers take and take and take from us so the least they can do is give us a .......

.... Harley Reid is the beez-knees. We need to keep the #1 pick and plan for him, Ginbey and Long to be the new Judd/Cuz/Kerr.

Just be damned careful. A very easy comparison for those 3 players as our starting midfield could be Scott Selwood, Lachie Schultz and Cam Rayner.....

 

[Frederico_WA]

Just be damned careful. A very easy comparison for those 3 players as our starting midfield could be Scott Selwood, Lachie Schultz and Cam Rayner.....

Eh? Can you reword that ...

 

[Jandamarra]

Is Harley really that good?

 

[WCE_phil]

Eh? Can you reword that ...

Ginbey = Scott Selwood
Long = Lachie Schultz
Reid = Cam Rayner (not the closest comparison in regards to player type but perhaps in regards to a number 1 pick)

 

[briztoon]

End of the day if an expansion club drafts an academy kid that's one less quality player removed from the Vic,SA and WA talent pool.

The more Qld and NSW players picked early would suggest the talent pool is larger not smaller.

If these academy kids weren't top 20 picks the Qldand NSW clubs would be selecting Vic, SA and WA kids. Now THAT does reduces the available talent to everyone else.

I feel you’re deliberately ignoring some of my previous comments.

First, my original opinion was that this year’s top 40 were on par with last year’s top 30. That’s particularly relevant for the second round, it bats deeper. But this was including the academy kids. (Just as last year’s top 30 included father son and academy kids)

I have 6 academy kids in that top 40.

It’s great if the academy or father son clubs are using their original first and second picks to match bids on their kids.

But they’re not, they are trading those picks to other clubs for multiple later picks, who then uses those picks to draft kids from the open pool.

But because academy or father son clubs are trading out those early picks, the 37th pick is being pushed back to pick 42, but the 37th ranked kid is still going at pick 37.

 

[Mattman93]

Reid = Cam Rayner (not the closest comparison in regards to player type but perhaps in regards to a number 1 pick)

And yet, if only there were was an equivalent top 5 to 2017.

 

[Mulldogg]

Is anyone planning on heading to the WACA next Friday night to see the enigma that is Harley play for Vic Country under lights against WA?

If so, please tell me that you’re taking a “Welcome to the West Harls” banner with you.

 

[Cuzz09]

Eagles cheer squad should get down there in the goal square and chant some "SGIO GO EAGLES GO" at him.

He'll get depression within minutes

On SM-S908E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Obeanie1]

I feel you’re deliberately ignoring some of my previous comments.

First, my original opinion was that this year’s top 40 were on par with last year’s top 30. That’s particularly relevant for the second round, it bats deeper. But this was including the academy kids. (Just as last year’s top 30 included father son and academy kids)

I have 6 academy kids in that top 40.

It’s great if the academy or father son clubs are using their original first and second picks to match bids on their kids.

But they’re not, they are trading those picks to other clubs for multiple later picks, who then uses those picks to draft kids from the open pool.

But because academy or father son clubs are trading out those early picks, the 37th pick is being pushed back to pick 42, but the 37th ranked kid is still going at pick 37.

Im not ignoring them I just cant reconcile what you are saying based on the different posts.

So do successful academies increase or decrease the depth of a draft?

Another click bait article saying this is a difficult draft to gauge as it isnt dominated by mids. There are multiple talls and utilities standing out in the top 30 and talls take longer to adequately gauge. Get a group of good mids and they are showing earlier what they can do so people get. More hyped in a midfielder draft.

The 2024 top 30 doesnt have anyone over 200cm rated yet.

Feel there will be more players drafted this year than last simply because the two covid drafts were down on numbers.

Really dont know the depth of a draft for 5 plus years really.

 

[briztoon]

Im not ignoring them I just cant reconcile what you are saying based on the different posts.

So do successful academies increase or decrease the depth of a draft?

Another click bait article saying this is a difficult draft to gauge as it isnt dominated by mids. There are multiple talls and utilities standing out in the top 30 and talls take longer to adequately gauge. Get a group of good mids and they are showing earlier what they can do so people get. More hyped in a midfielder draft.

The 2024 top 30 doesnt have anyone over 200cm rated yet.

Feel there will be more players drafted this year than last simply because the two covid drafts were down on numbers.

Really dont know the depth of a draft for 5 plus years really.

I haven’t linked or referred to any articles on the draft.

Academies don’t really increase the player pool, because those kids aren’t available to all teams. Usually the only academy kids that go to other clubs, are kids an academy is happy to not match (and I’ve watched the Lions pass on quite a few academy kids late in drafts, in preference to draft a kid from interstate with a later pick).

I don’t know what different posts you are thinking about.

I thought the point I made was pretty easy to understand.

And it’s one that has been made on here by other posters as well (thought it was you or Monocle who had brought it up before).

Because GC, WB & HAW will trade out their first and second round picks to other clubs for multiple later picks (and more points), instead of using those early picks to match kids outside the open player pool, they allow other clubs to use those picks on kids inside the open player pool.

I was looking at the Lions first pick, and some of the players who might potentially be available around that pick, and worked out that all the players I would prefer to draft will more than likely be gone by that pick.

Then I looked at how things might pan out for WC. It looks like your late 2nd round pick tied to Port and your natural 3rd round pick will be pushed out beyond pick 40.

I figured those picks would be better off being used to trade up for GC’s pick 26 and a fourth round pick (to use to match a post 40 bid on Livingston or Collard).

 

[DanWCE]

Sorry if I missed it, is Reid playing this weekend in any televised games?

 

[Free Agent]

Draft experts give first indication into quality of 2023 class

Matt Rendell and Cal Twomey give their assessments.

www.sen.com.au

We must go for Harley Reid.

Even a draft expert has declared this year's draft to be average with not many midfielders.

This is not the season to be splitting picks. If the draft was good yeah I'd say ok go for it. But everyone needs to know this draft is average. We split it be a horrible mistake because there's a high chance of failing and what we need is midfielders more then anything.

Sorry to break the news but there isn't any mids in this draft. Harley Reid for pick 1.

Screw the other clubs offering picks. They know it's a crap draft and we will be the ones becoming a laughing stock.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Sorry if I missed it, is Reid playing this weekend in any televised games?

He's playing tomorrow at 1pm AEST in Bendigo.
There will probably be some form of stream (usually it's nothing to write home about).

 

[Wooshaaaa]

Obvious path if we do end up with pick 1 is to take the unanimously rated best player. Unlikely we’d be criticised for that and it’d be exciting watching him develop.

Before then though we need to determine if Reid is actually the best player for us when compared to the players that would be available should we split pick 1

It should be pointed out that if we do draft Reid we will likely never get a better trade offer than what we will for pick 1

The beauty of pick 1 is we aren’t obligated to trade it so it will be up to other clubs to come up with an offer too good to refuse.

The advantage of splitting pick one is we could bring in two, or possibly three, talented players rather than one admittedly more talented player. We could then use our later picks to improve our draft hand for next year

There’ll be a lot of options and permutations so Duane Massey and his team of recruiters are going to need to do a power of work getting their draft board right so the best decision can be made

One metric I like when talking whether the trade pick one is the following.

Looking at the average games played as per the draft position.

Can't recall exact numbers but I saw it here last year.

Please someone fix my numbers, it's a vague memory, but you'll get the point.

Draft pick vs games
Top 5 +250
5-15 +200
15-25 +150
25-40 +100


Take pick one.....250 games

Vs

Get 2 inside 10 and one inside 25....550 games.

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Avalor]

Split it...

 

[new breed]

Split it...

Just imagine all the picks , plus on draft night split pick 19 for two picks in the 20s .

Something like

Picks 5, 6 , 14 ( from pick 1 ) plus 23 , 27 ( from pick 19 )

= 5-6-14-23-27-38 .

NGA players last past pick 40 then use pick 50s and 70s .

 

[Chump Change]

Is Harley really that good?

We don't know how good he'll be, but at 18 there's a bigger gap between him and the rest of the field for a long time.

I think his market value is 1x top 5 pick and 2x 6-10 picks.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

We don't know how good he'll be, but at 18 there's a bigger gap between him and the rest of the field for a long time.

I think his market value is 1x top 5 pick and 2x 6-10 picks.

We wish he was worth that. If Reid's form line continues he'd lose the #1 player mantle to Walter.

It amazes me how the rhetoric around Reid differs from that which Hewett got last year. Hewett was playing as a forward in the WAFL, had a season with low continuity & fell from a possible top 5 pick going into 2022 to our 2nd pick.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

 

[Chump Change]

One metric I like when talking whether the trade pick one is the following.

Looking at the average games played as per the draft position.

Can't recall exact numbers but I saw it here last year.

Please someone fix my numbers, it's a vague memory, but you'll get the point.

Draft pick vs games
Top 5 +250
5-15 +200
15-25 +150
25-40 +100


Take pick one.....250 games

Vs

Get 2 inside 10 and one inside 25....550 games.

On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

That doesn't take into consideration the quality of those games.

Go get a spreadsheet, put every draft from 2009 - 2018 or there abouts, and image you have pick 1, and then image you have pick 5 and 9.

Now have a look at the average #1 midfielder, as well as the precentage chance of picking such a player.
Then look at the odds of what you get with #5 and #9.

You'll discover the chance of getting an absolute midfield gun with #1 is high, and the odds of getting an above average midfielder is over 80%.
But when you have 2 picks between say #5 and 10#, the percentage chance drops to below 50%, and average quality of player also drops. The chance is more than reasonable of striking out with both picks.

#1 is worth more than 2x top 10 picks this year.