Strategy What to do with pick 1 now we’ve got it - Do We Need Reid or is it Curtins

[Dylan82]

I've had enough of all of these kents already.

Nothing would satisfy me more right now than drafting H.Reid and watch him kick a bag against the tin-rattlers.


And anyone else wanting to entertain splitting the pick in this massively compromised draft needs to give themselves an uppercut as well.

 

[Deepthroat]

We are definitely bottom 4, but no chance at getting No.1 with McKay and Goldstein moving on from North.

North lose their ruckman who had a better season than Bailey Williams and a KPD (with Logue also out to an ACL) reeks of a 2/3 win season if they are lucky.

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Hawks will be neck and neck with us for 2/3 pick.

Wheels might fall off Geelong, but even Witho/Gaff wouldn't get a game there.

At some point North have to go hard at getting established players into their mix.

Surely this is that year.

Clarkson was not brought in to develop 18 year olds for 5 years.

I wouldn't be surprised if they floated Pick 2 or 3 for a player.

 

[Dylan82]

At some point North have to go hard at getting established players into their mix.

Surely this is that year.

Clarkson was not brought in to develop 18 year olds for 5 years.

I wouldn't be surprised if they floated Pick 2 or 3 for a player.

If they [North] go after mature players, it will likely be with picks outside the first two rounds for names like H.Clark of St Kilda.

High picks is what accumulates quality. Mature players looking for opportunity to complement that quality can be found at a comparative pittance.

 

[Bleedblueandgold]

Robertson we trade for our future third.
Likewise if anything else use a future later picks while keeping our future first.

Future 3rd is too high if we have another s**t season. Future 4th is more like it.

 

[Deepthroat]

If they [North] go after mature players, it will likely be with picks outside the first two rounds for names like H.Clark of St Kilda.

High picks is what accumulates quality. Mature players looking for opportunity to complement that quality can be found at a comparative pittance.

Dangerfield, Cameron, May, Lever, Lynch, Prestia beg to differ.

 

[nameless]

Dangerfield, Cameron, May, Lever, Lynch, Prestia beg to differ.

All those players were traded to teams who had finished their rebuild and were playing finals.

 

[Dylan82]

Dangerfield, Cameron, May, Lever, Lynch, Prestia beg to differ.

North are at best still another 4-5 years away from big-game hunting for the final pieces of a premiership puzzle.

The comparison is not apt.


No point in spending high picks on established talent if they are well past their best by the time the list peaks.

At the moment they require mature bodies simply to protect their young talent from being beaten around - which can be procured at a low price.

 

[Deepthroat]

All those players were traded to teams who had finished their rebuild and were playing finals.

Prestia 2016 - Richmond 13th

May 2020 - Melbourne 9th

Lever 2017 - Melbourne 9th

Dangerfield 2015 - Geelong 10th

Playing finals?

 

[shooshka]

Alternative is we give Gold Coast our picks 19 35 38 54 for pick 4.

Can it be done. They just need points to match there academy players so might be willing.
We get Reid Curtin and still have future first intact. Pick 4 is 2034 points so we need to do better then that for it to be worthwhile.

Pick 19 is 948 points
Pick 35 is 522 points
Pick 38 is 465 points
Pick 54 is 220 points
Pick 57 is 182 points

Total 2337 points.

Why Curtin?

That is the question that no-one who is floating the significant trade costs to acquire pick 4 has answered.

He’s a high end talent from WA in a position of need - but that is not enough reason to sell the farm. It is a national competition, and he is by no means the only player who plays that position in this draft.

So if we are screaming for a CHB or rebounding back flanker, let’s go and get those players at a reasonable price (19, or slightly upgrade that pick into early teens).

F1st or the remainder of our 2023 draft hand after #1 is a huge cost for 1 player (of a type that you can still get an AFL quality player albeit slightly lower quality than Curtin projects, for a pick in the 40’s).


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[nameless]

Prestia 2016 - Richmond 13th

May 2020 - Melbourne 9th

Lever 2017 - Melbourne 9th

Dangerfield 2015 - Geelong 10th

Playing finals?

Yes playing finals.
Richmond in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018... etc

Melbourne in 2018, 2020, 2021

Geelong in every year besides 2015

Point is they weren't last, they brought in players when the list was finished and the team had been playing finals and needed mature players to go one better which they so did.

North spending top picks on players in their prime is nonsensical as their list is incomplete.

 

[Deepthroat]

Yes playing finals.
Richmond in 2013, 2014, 2015, 2017, 2018... etc

Melbourne in 2018, 2020, 2021

Geelong in every year besides 2015

Point is they weren't last, they brought in players when the list was finished and the team had been playing finals and needed mature players to go one better which they so did.

North spending top picks on players in their prime is nonsensical as their list is incomplete.

Lists can be turned around a lot faster than you think.

There is a nucleus of around 18 good kids that will form the basis of a Top 4 squad.

Another preseason and a year of no coaching interruptions will see them rise quickly.

Grabbing a 23/24 year old now only accelerates the rise.

They are not 4-5 years away from this rise.

 

[Coasters7]

Absolutely tiny sample but against the Allies he was schooled by real quality U18 forwards. Sticks in the back of my mind. A defensive utility player perhaps?

Definitely seems more of an early Callum Mills/Jordan Dawson type. Whether he makes that same switch into the middle will be interesting but he most likely projects to be one of those without the midfield ability.

 

[MaxHunt]

Hawks won 4 games more, Sun's 6, Freo 7 this year. It's bottom 2 again next year even with a major improvement. Trading F1 is too big of a gamble.

 

[Eastern Rangers]

You should trade future 1st only when you have a strong draft with identifiable players that fix holes in your 23. This is best done when you're close to competing.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using Tapatalk

 

[Deepthroat]

Lists can be turned around a lot faster than you think.

There is a nucleus of around 18 good kids that will form the basis of a Top 4 squad.

Another preseason and a year of no coaching interruptions will see them rise quickly.

Grabbing a 23/24 year old now only accelerates the rise.

They are not 4-5 years away from this rise.

In comparison, our nucleus is around 10 (am I am being generous).

Whilst both sides finished on same wins, they are well ahead in terms of talent.

 

[nameless]

Lists can be turned around a lot faster than you think.

North would beg to differ

 

[Cuzz09]

Draft Judd... make the 8
Draft Reid... make the 8

be nice hey

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[Wooshaaaa]

Rowan Jones was a pretty good pickup

But the 2 before him at 11 12!!

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[WCE_phil]

Personally if we're going to look at trading forward a future first imo the year to do it would be 2025. That will have given us a core build from 21-25 with 7 first round draft picks and 9 second round draft picks. Plus two number 1 MSD picks (one of which looks like a future top 15 in the team player and the jury is very much out on the other)

 

[Doashuey]

It's an interesting one to think about. How highly do we rate those late picks. Pick 19 really is the only one that hurts.

Picks in the 30s and 50s are a 50/50 anyhow. Our future is getting quality players. Reid and Curtin is the way to do it. We can work things out with players like Brockman through other means like PSD. Prob could get it done with pick 70. This year is actually a good year for it. We don't have anyone that's much value asking to come to us except those two who aren't worth much.

Brockman is basically free and Robertson will come cheap anyhow too if he decides too. Later future pick we could use. It's do-able and not as risky as you'd think. Would you be unhappy if we got Reid Curtin Brockman Robertson in this draft period. That's a decent hull. But it probably won't happen. Be worth suggesting to GC if they would be interested though.

Hough, Long, B Williams all taken above pick 35 and are B22. This is a fairly even draft evidently so there will be plenty for us to build our list with by taking 4-5 draftees. We need to get them right of course but recent evidence is that we pick fairly well with later picks, especially when we steer away from picking mids late in the draft. Rucks, key defenders, general defenders/flankers and general forwards are still areas of need and there will be some for us to use those picks on.
We need to build a team including depth and B grade/role players, trading out all our picks for one high end pick to grab a KPD is not a good list strategy for a team in our position.

 

[Free Agent]

Why Curtin?

That is the question that no-one who is floating the significant trade costs to acquire pick 4 has answered.

He’s a high end talent from WA in a position of need - but that is not enough reason to sell the farm. It is a national competition, and he is by no means the only player who plays that position in this draft.

So if we are screaming for a CHB or rebounding back flanker, let’s go and get those players at a reasonable price (19, or slightly upgrade that pick into early teens).

F1st or the remainder of our 2023 draft hand after #1 is a huge cost for 1 player (of a type that you can still get an AFL quality player albeit slightly lower quality than Curtin projects, for a pick in the 40’s).


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Yeah honestly I'm not sure. He has potential to be a star but is also a risk and could flop.

Probably not a good idea to sell the farm for. There's parts of his game that I like with his side movement through traffic. Its not a big deal if we miss him. Reid is the one that's most important. But then was thinking how there are a few teams after GC pick 4 and it's possible we could get Curtin aswell but it's requires us to get creative with our later picks.

End of the day it's not worth it as others have pointed out. Way too much to give up for an uncertainty.

Hough, Long, B Williams all taken above pick 35 and are B22.

Ok. We've done pretty good with those picks. Point proven. Agreed to keep our later picks.

 

[Doashuey]

Ok. We've done pretty good with those picks. Point proven. Agreed to keep our later picks.

As long as we stay away from trying to find those diamond in the rough mids- we have a terrible hit rate with those.

 

[GlennTwenty]

Plus two number 1 MSD picks (one of which looks like a future top 15 in the team player and the jury is very much out on the other)

Curious who you think is top 15 and who the jury is still out on? Maric has well exceeded my expectations. Culley I'm worried about.

 

[footy_basis]

Agreed.

I'm not completely against the idea of trading future 1st for Curtin. Be nice to get Reid and Curtin in this draft.
If we improve even slightly next season to say 12th then yeah it's worth it. And I guess we can work on next year's draft to try and improve our position into the top 10 by trading or working out something if we lost our first.

We need to be dead certain though that Curtin falls to that pick. Someone call Brady Rawlings and ask him if Kangas are taking Curtin lol. We could make it work. Tough one. To give up future first or not.

I didn't like his game on the weekend.
His highlights here are good but can he transition to AFL. Will need a few years to develop. Curtin is a risky prospect. Could be a star but he also could be a Brander which makes me not want to give up too much for. So much to dissect.

Lucky you have no involvement. Terrible thinking.

 

[Free Agent]

Lucky you have no involvement. Terrible thinking.

Is there a reason you have to be a prick about it. Never seen you on here before. You don't post much and that's a good thing. You add nothing on here.

 

[bzparkes]

Is there a reason you have to be a prick about it. Never seen you on here before. You don't post much and that's a good thing. You add nothing on here

Don't stress, the poster lacks any self-awareness.