What's going on with Carlton's list

[BROWN20]

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas the Bay.

My issue is that I - being a non-Carlton supporter relativey unacquainted with its depth players - could not see where significant internal improvement would come from after 2011. Basically, I saw 2011 as Carlton at its peak - which, mind you, was able to be competitive against some of the best teams and perhaps deserved to knock off WC.

The key questions are:
1. Is there significant/substantial development in the list?
2. Is the development able to be realised whilst Judd (29)/Scotland(32)/Waite(29)/Carrazzo(28)/Simpson(28) are still performing?

If the answer to 2 is yes, then you should be pushing for top 6, you would think, after an aberration year of injury.
If the answer to 2 is no, then when is the best window - ie, will you be in a position to challenge in 4+ years when you'll have Murphy(29)/Gibbs(27)/Kreuz(27)/Betts(/Walker(30)/Jamison(30)/Betts(29)?

It seems as though the best players are either peaking or about to peak, but there are doubts about the support staff.

I would suggest that there will not be many teams if any in four years time that will compete with GWS & Gold Coast once their development kicks in, from 2015 onwards with the concessions they have been given they will both be a dominate force, in the interim the Carlton list is good enough to be 4th-6th possibly better depending on how much improvement Malthouse can extract from the group.

 

[You Heard Me]

GWS ang GC will lose plenty in coming years. You can't pay 10-15 guns the big money. Simple as that.

 

[Fadge]

All lists need improving but it seems Carlton are happy to use the draft this year instead of trading for club discards like Knights or Chaplin.

Why aren't Collingwood trading for a Ruckman that could step straight in if Jolly goes down? Lynch can't ruck full time, Dawes is gone and Wood is rubbish.

You may not yet have heard of these two names:
Jarrod Witts
Jonathon Ceglar

Don't worry, you will. Some time in 2013. See, we know how to develop from within (Cameron Wood being the exception ).

 

[Magic Mike]

As a GC supporter, my biggest fear is the Collingwood juggernaut.

Forget GWS, the Pies will dominate for the next 5 years at least.

As for Carlton, they won't beat us again for a long time.

They couldn't beat us with most of our first choice team in the medical room, not to mention the fact that our team had nothing to play for.

 

[HFF]

It's interesting that just about every side is adding to their list and shaking it up addressing deficiencies and so forth yet the Blues seem "comfortable" with their list.

Didn't Mick say during the year that for any side to miss the finals, they have issues with their list to sort out in order to get back into the finals?

I can understand injuries as a reason where improvement will come from but the likes of Essendon and Collingwood for example had just as many injuries throughout 2012 and every side seems to be improving their list via players or picks except the Blues.

I'm staggered that they aren't a little more involved.

 

[bombermick]

A lot of coaches want to wait a season before making any large changes. It's going to make pinching one in the next couple of years almost impossible though, as the competition fixes holes.

 

[blueboy25]

Don't worry, you will. Some time in 2013. See, we know how to develop from within (Cameron Wood being the exception ).

Then why do you need Darren Jolly, Luke Ball, Krak, Q Stick et etc if you can develop within.

 

[Mr Meeseeks]

As a GC supporter, my biggest fear is the Collingwood juggernaut.

Yes everyone is aware what your thoughts on Collingwood are, you made about a thread a month on them this year... All wrong....

Agree with your thoughts on Carlton though, I think they are in for some lean, soul-searching years under Mick.

 

[Essendonia]

I would suggest that there will not be many teams if any in four years time that will compete with GWS & Gold Coast once their development kicks in, from 2015 onwards with the concessions they have been given they will both be a dominate force, in the interim the Carlton list is good enough to be 4th-6th possibly better depending on how much improvement Malthouse can extract from the group.

I reckon you're shooting them off a tad too early. Core will still be young. But they should both be dominant. Will be like visiting 2001-3 with Port and Brisbane.

Not that you have to, but you didn't answer my question; when will/should Carlton be targeting the flag? 2013-14 or a couple of seasons after that? More simply, are you currently/should you be topping up or drafting for the later run? (Answer seems self-evident from inactivity this week.)

 

[Monkey King]

I can understand injuries as a reason where improvement will come from but the likes of Essendon and Collingwood for example had just as many injuries throughout 2012 ...

This has been shown elsewhere as incorrect. Carlton's injuries were worse, from preseason limitations to players carrying injury. A good example of impact is the KPP injury list, with even back-ups like McInnes going down with an ACL and guys like Simon White being the lone KPD. Or Casboult being the lone ruck after being elevated from the rookie list just one and a half games after coming back from a knee injury himself. Or Eddie Betts playing the role of marking forward. It's not that we don't have reasonable to good KPP's in every position down the spine, it's that they were all injured at one point or other during the season and so were the back ups. In one game, Carlton were missing 11 starting players and something like 8 of their best 12. We can chew the bull all day long over this, but I'm really happy to wait for next season for this to be revealed to Carlton's detractors.

That said, I'd like a Lachie Hansen type to free up Henderson to take CHF. And FWIW I'm not sure why people think they've improved their list. They've lost Wellers and replaced one mid-level KPF with another one whose a bit older. Where's the big improvement?

 

[Essendonia]

This has been shown elsewhere as incorrect. Carlton's injuries were worse, from preseason limitations to players carrying injury. A good example of impact is the KPP injury list, with even back-ups like McInnes going down with an ACL and guys like Simon White being the lone KPD. Or Casboult being the lone ruck after being elevated from the rookie list just one and a half games after coming back from a knee injury himself. Or Eddie Betts playing the role of marking forward. It's not that we don't have reasonable to good KPP's in every position down the spine, it's that they were all injured at one point or other during the season and so were the back ups. In one game, Carlton were missing 11 starting players and something like 8 of their best 12. We can chew the bull all day long over this, but I'm really happy to wait for next season for this to be revealed to Carlton's detractors.

That said, I'd like a Lachie Hansen type to free up Henderson to take CHF. And FWIW I'm not sure why people think they've improved their list. They've lost Wellers and replaced one mid-level KPF with another one whose a bit older. Where's the big improvement?

Sounds like you're lacking depth...

 

[chunkylover53]

As a GC supporter, my biggest fear is the Collingwood juggernaut.

Forget GWS, the Pies will dominate for the next 5 years at least.

As for Carlton, they won't beat us again for a long time.

They couldn't beat us with most of our first choice team in the medical room, not to mention the fact that our team had nothing to play for.

"Us" being Collingwood or GC? You're old threads and ridiculous posts have made sure you have no credit around here whatsoever. Go make a new account.

 

[bombermick]

This has been shown elsewhere as incorrect. Carlton's injuries were worse, from preseason limitations to players carrying injury. A good example of impact is the KPP injury list, with even back-ups like McInnes going down with an ACL and guys like Simon White being the lone KPD. Or Casboult being the lone ruck after being elevated from the rookie list just one and a half games after coming back from a knee injury himself. Or Eddie Betts playing the role of marking forward. It's not that we don't have reasonable to good KPP's in every position down the spine, it's that they were all injured at one point or other during the season and so were the back ups. In one game, Carlton were missing 11 starting players and something like 8 of their best 12. We can chew the bull all day long over this, but I'm really happy to wait for next season for this to be revealed to Carlton's detractors.

That said, I'd like a Lachie Hansen type to free up Henderson to take CHF. And FWIW I'm not sure why people think they've improved their list. They've lost Wellers and replaced one mid-level KPF with another one whose a bit older. Where's the big improvement?

The Pies haven't (at least in the short term), but WCE, the Swans (when they get Tippett) and the Hawks all have.

Improvement from within won't be enough when you're already so far behind.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Results from Carlton's b&f:

1. Heath Scotland - 32
2. Eddie Betts - 25
3. Chris Judd -29
4. Brock Maclean - 26
5. Marc Murphy 25
6. Andrew Carazzo - 28
7. Kade Simpson - 28

The fact that there is not one player under the age of 25 in the top 7 of their b&f count has to be a huge concern. This is a club who in recent years has spent more time on the bottom of the ladder and had greater access to high draft picks than any other. Where are they? Why haven't any of them developed into the players that many thought they would come. Whose fault is it? The recruiters? The development staff? We should be seeing a side ready to peak and have a genuine tilt at the flag, yet instead all that exists is a veteran list on the cusp of collapse. Is this failure to develop youth now a crisis, and if so, how can Carlton go about changing what seems to be an entrenched culture of mediocrity?

Discuss.

If I were Carlton, I would be more concerned about the lack of quality KPP players, which is reflected by this B&F. Most of those midfielders have plenty of years left in them!

 

[Monkey King]

The Pies haven't (at least in the short term), but WCE, the Swans (when they get Tippett) and the Hawks all have.

Improvement from within won't be enough when you're already so far behind.

I guess this is where our thinking differs. I've never considered Carlton that far behind.

Sydney for example had a great season this year, despite being behind Carlton the season before - so it's just nowhere near as static as you make out. The Swans had terrific continuity in their list this year and that helped them a lot, with no less than 18 players playing all but 3 games together. Factors like this really do matter.

Then WCE, they get Wellers, but I'm not a big fan and not sold on how much he's gonna improve the list in real terms; I actually think WCE have far more improvement to come from within their existing list than from this trade.

Similar for he Hawks trade, Brian Lake may or may not improve the Hawks, depending on whether he can capture somewhere near his best form at 32yo and stay injury free. And they may yet lose Clinton Young.

None of these "improvements" are anymore guaranteed than Jarrad Waite staying injury free and as the Swans showed this season, sometimes the biggest steps forward are taken with those you already have.

 

[Monkey King]

Sounds like you're lacking depth...

Sounds that way doesn't it. But we have 3 AFL quality ruckmen, more than most clubs, and yet had to resort to playing an upgraded rookie as a lone hand in his third game back from a knee injury. Or four first choice KPD's going down with injury, leaving Simon White to play a lone hand in defense. Just because something sounds like something, doesn't mean it is. You should probably look closer and just find out what it really is instead.

 

[Monkey King]

If I were Carlton, I would be more concerned about the lack of quality KPP players, which is reflected by this B&F. Most of those midfielders have plenty of years left in them!

Hard to be top 10 in the B&F when you're on the sidelines one would think

What concerns me most, is getting our players fit and injury free.

If we can do that, it would be like having traded for half a dozen walk-up starts.

 

[blueboy25]

If I were Carlton, I would be more concerned about the lack of quality KPP players, which is reflected by this B&F. Most of those midfielders have plenty of years left in them!

A list of our KPP players and the number of games played this year
Waite -11 (injured)
Jamison - 16 (injured)
Henderson - 11 (injured)
Hampson -13 (injured)
Rowe - 0 games (cancer)
Casboult - 6 games (injured until round 13)
Mitchell - 1 game (injured till mid season)
Laidler - 4 games (injured)
Matt Watson - 8 games

So Jamison was the only one who played over half the games this year and in 2 of them he was subbed early due to injury. Not sure how you are meant to finish high in the B & F if you are not on the park.

On average Waite and Casboult were 4th and 5th in league for contested marks.

 

[Monkey King]

So Jamison was the only one who played over half the games this year and in 2 of them he was subbed early due to injury.

And if you know anything about the club and its players, you will know that Jamison actually carried injury all season and hardly made it out on the training track.

Not sure how you are meant to finish high in the B & F if you are not on the park.

On average Waite and Casboult were 4th and 5th in league for contested marks.

Exactly. What the B&F reflects, isn't what some people think it does.

And yes, when on the park, our KPP's are pretty decent. If we can manage to get them out there next year fit and injury free, that's where Carlton's biggest improvement is going to come from, not recruiting guys like Lynch Gumbleton or Brian Lake.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Hard to be top 10 in the B&F when you're on the sidelines one would think

What concerns me most, is getting our players fit and injury free.

If we can do that, it would be like having traded for half a dozen walk-up starts.

Not doubting that, but Carlton have trouble for a while settling down a quality spine. Sure you would admit this is your biggest problem. Hence you have often had to rely on a small forward line.

 

[West123]

Results from Carlton's b&f:

1. Heath Scotland - 32
2. Eddie Betts - 25

Eddie Betts is 25? Talk about Benjamin Button, I thought the bloke was at least 50 by now.

 

[bombermick]

I guess this is where our thinking differs. I've never considered Carlton that far behind.

Sydney for example had a great season this year, despite being behind Carlton the season before - so it's just nowhere near as static as you make out. The Swans had terrific continuity in their list this year and that helped them a lot, with no less than 18 players playing all but 3 games together. Factors like this really do matter.

Then WCE, they get Wellers, but I'm not a big fan and not sold on how much he's gonna improve the list in real terms; I actually think WCE have far more improvement to come from within their existing list than from this trade.

Similar for he Hawks trade, Brian Lake may or may not improve the Hawks, depending on whether he can capture somewhere near his best form at 32yo and stay injury free. And they may yet lose Clinton Young.

None of these "improvements" are anymore guaranteed than Jarrad Waite staying injury free and as the Swans showed this season, sometimes the biggest steps forward are taken with those you already have.

Those 3 clubs I listed have all fixed structural weaknesses. Unless Carlton do trade in a ready-made KPF, it's hard to see the Blues making enough natural improvement, as Waite never plays a full year.

 

[Monkey King]

Not doubting that, but Carlton have trouble for a while settling down a quality spine. Sure you would admit this is your biggest problem. Hence you have often had to rely on a small forward line.

That's not through lack of players though, it's through lack of their availability.

 

[Essendonia]

Sounds that way doesn't it. But we have 3 AFL quality ruckmen, more than most clubs, and yet had to resort to playing an upgraded rookie as a lone hand in his third game back from a knee injury. Or four first choice KPD's going down with injury, leaving Simon White to play a lone hand in defense. Just because something sounds like something, doesn't mean it is. You should probably look closer and just find out what it really is instead.

No doubt your season was decimated by injuries to ruckmen and KPP. Kind of irrelevant when the contention is that those blokes can't cut it anyway. As I stated above, IMO Carlton peaked in 2011 and there was no significant room for improvement.

No-one has answered my question: When is Carlton timing its run for, because that is not a premiership list.

 

[Monkey King]

Those 3 clubs I listed have all fixed structural weaknesses. Unless Carlton do trade in a ready-made KPF, it's hard to see the Blues making enough natural improvement, as Waite never plays a full year.

Potentially they have, under certain conditions that aren't guaranteed. Carlton's structural weaknesses can also be remedied under certain conditions that aren't guaranteed. Like I said, its far more dynamic a situation than you make it out to be.