FR0GGY
From a cartel villa in Tuscany
When was the draw released?
-
AFLW 2024 - Round 10 - Chat, game threads, injury lists, team lineups and more.
Where will we finish next year?
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This shouldn't be seriously looked at until the outcome of the Tippett saga is known. We could keep him and remain strong, lose him and secure reasonable return and remain strong, or give him away and find ourselves less optimistic.
BACCS - If Tippett goes and we lose a couple of keys early in the year, we will struggle to make the 8. Walker becomes our only good key forward. We'd quite literally be an injury away from having nothing to kick to. We have only one good ruckman on our list also, who was remarkably durable this year. His service greatly aided a still somewhat modest midfield by premiership standards. Dangerfield, Thompson, Sloane, no elite kicks and we generate no outside ball.
Trade period critical.
Next year might see luck smile on us again, but if it doesn't, earth and face will meet very quickly. We missed a rare opportunity this year and it won't take much to show just how rare.
BACCS - If Tippett goes and we lose a couple of keys early in the year, we will struggle to make the 8. Walker becomes our only good key forward. We'd quite literally be an injury away from having nothing to kick to. We have only one good ruckman on our list also, who was remarkably durable this year. His service greatly aided a still somewhat modest midfield by premiership standards. Dangerfield, Thompson, Sloane, no elite kicks and we generate no outside ball.
Trade period critical.
Next year might see luck smile on us again, but if it doesn't, earth and face will meet very quickly. We missed a rare opportunity this year and it won't take much to show just how rare.
TheCrouchingCrow
Senior List
Pick 8 and our first rounder for Griffen if Tippo leaves. Maybe another piece. He's outside run will complete us.
Kane McGoodwin
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The AFL release part of the draw before the official draw is released.
They want the 1st & last AFL game to be Adelaide v Hawthorn.
FR0GGY
From a cartel villa in Tuscany
Was this before or after the weekends game? Any reason they want this?
BUTTON 92
Cancelled
Has Griffen expressed any interest in leaving?
Given Fremantles trading history we could try our third rounder for Fyfe?
Kane McGoodwin
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It was meantioned months ago.
Kane McGoodwin
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The McLeod years are long gone & we paid them back with Modra.
Ryan Griffen is contracted & no way Bullies will release him!
I was thinking about starting a new thread but I reckon this is probably the place for it. A bit of a study on the evolution of premiership teams. The last 6 "new" premiership teams were: Collingwood 2010, Hawthorn 2008, Geelong 2007, West Coast 2006, Sydney 2005 and Port 2004. I'll come back to Hawthorn's 2008 team, but the one thing the others had in common is that they all built up to ultimately winning the flag with repeated finals appearances.
Collingwood made the finals every year from 2006-2009, with prelim appearances in 2007 and 2009.
Geelong made a prelim in 2004 and were only denied another prelim appearance in 2005 by Nick Davis. In 2006 they were early premiership favourites but it ended up in a disaster for them fuelled by internal turmoil.
West Coast made the finals every year from 2002-2005, obviously only missing the 2005 flag by under a kick.
Sydney made finals in 3 of the 4 years from 2001-2004, making a prelim in 2003.
Port made the finals in 1999 and 2001-2003, making prelims in 2002-3.
Point is, that it takes most clubs a few years of flitting around the 3-6 region, making semi finals and prelims, before they are ready to take the step up to being a premiership team. Interestingly, only one of these sides (WCE 2005 - and someone had to lose that game) lost a GF before they won one, which says to me that when the premiership year finally comes, the team takes another big stride forward, from being a 3-6 team to being premiers.
Hawthorn 2008 might be the exception that proves the rule (I hate that saying). They made a semi final in 07 (as we all know) but hadn't played finals for a number of years before that. But I think the 2008 flag was a unique one in that there was one dominant side all year and the Hawks just got them on the day. In fact, I'd say the way Hawthorn has been building since 2007 has all the hallmarks of a 2012 flag for them.
So in answer to the OP, I expect that we will once again fall somewhere between 3-6, before our premiership window truly opens in about 2015.
Collingwood made the finals every year from 2006-2009, with prelim appearances in 2007 and 2009.
Geelong made a prelim in 2004 and were only denied another prelim appearance in 2005 by Nick Davis. In 2006 they were early premiership favourites but it ended up in a disaster for them fuelled by internal turmoil.
West Coast made the finals every year from 2002-2005, obviously only missing the 2005 flag by under a kick.
Sydney made finals in 3 of the 4 years from 2001-2004, making a prelim in 2003.
Port made the finals in 1999 and 2001-2003, making prelims in 2002-3.
Point is, that it takes most clubs a few years of flitting around the 3-6 region, making semi finals and prelims, before they are ready to take the step up to being a premiership team. Interestingly, only one of these sides (WCE 2005 - and someone had to lose that game) lost a GF before they won one, which says to me that when the premiership year finally comes, the team takes another big stride forward, from being a 3-6 team to being premiers.
Hawthorn 2008 might be the exception that proves the rule (I hate that saying). They made a semi final in 07 (as we all know) but hadn't played finals for a number of years before that. But I think the 2008 flag was a unique one in that there was one dominant side all year and the Hawks just got them on the day. In fact, I'd say the way Hawthorn has been building since 2007 has all the hallmarks of a 2012 flag for them.
So in answer to the OP, I expect that we will once again fall somewhere between 3-6, before our premiership window truly opens in about 2015.
A FEW GOOD MEN
Club Legend
The two key factors that determine where a team finishes are;
1) The quality of the player list
2) Games missed by key players. Teams that are hit hard by injury can slip 4 or more places below their "natural position", teams with very low injury rates can lift by a similar amount.
So where does our player list fit in the AFL?
The good news is most of our key players will be 21-24 at the start of next season; Talia 21, Walker 22, Sloane 23, Dangerfield 23, Jacobs 24. Thommo would be the other player in our top six and whilst he will be 30 next March he is at the peak of his powers.
We also have many talented young players who will improve significantly over the next couple of seasons; Crouch 19, Kerridge 20, Lyons 20, Brown 20, Smith 21, Shaw 21, L. Thompson 21, McKernan 22, Petrenko 23, Wright 23, Otten 23, Jenkins 24, Henderson 24, Mackay 24.
A number of other contenders lost important players for a significant part of this year (Collingwood, West Coast, Geelong, Fremantle, Carlton, Essendon).
IMHO our player list is clearly in the best 8 and prior to the Kurt announcement top 4. At this stage I would have our list below Hawthorn, Collingwood and West Coast (assuming they retain all their players and injured players like Luke Ball and Le Cras reach their previous standard). I would rate our list at a similar level to Sydney and Geelong (with some exciting young kids but some important players 30+) and I also think Fremantle have a great list if Sandilands can play a full season.
So I think we start at position 4 on the grid and hope that a lower injury rate and faster improvement in our KIDS could see us playing off for a spot in the Grand Final in 51 weeks time.
1) The quality of the player list
2) Games missed by key players. Teams that are hit hard by injury can slip 4 or more places below their "natural position", teams with very low injury rates can lift by a similar amount.
So where does our player list fit in the AFL?
The good news is most of our key players will be 21-24 at the start of next season; Talia 21, Walker 22, Sloane 23, Dangerfield 23, Jacobs 24. Thommo would be the other player in our top six and whilst he will be 30 next March he is at the peak of his powers.
We also have many talented young players who will improve significantly over the next couple of seasons; Crouch 19, Kerridge 20, Lyons 20, Brown 20, Smith 21, Shaw 21, L. Thompson 21, McKernan 22, Petrenko 23, Wright 23, Otten 23, Jenkins 24, Henderson 24, Mackay 24.
A number of other contenders lost important players for a significant part of this year (Collingwood, West Coast, Geelong, Fremantle, Carlton, Essendon).
IMHO our player list is clearly in the best 8 and prior to the Kurt announcement top 4. At this stage I would have our list below Hawthorn, Collingwood and West Coast (assuming they retain all their players and injured players like Luke Ball and Le Cras reach their previous standard). I would rate our list at a similar level to Sydney and Geelong (with some exciting young kids but some important players 30+) and I also think Fremantle have a great list if Sandilands can play a full season.
So I think we start at position 4 on the grid and hope that a lower injury rate and faster improvement in our KIDS could see us playing off for a spot in the Grand Final in 51 weeks time.
Punchy Bassett
Brownlow Medallist
Wouldn't be surprised to see us just miss top 4 next year but to come storming back the year after.
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SugarShane
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Half right.
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FR0GGY
From a cartel villa in Tuscany
Isnt it relevant? This year is not over
There's enough relevance for it to stay live.
GROTTO
TheBrownDog
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Been playing around with AFL predictor.
Its not impossible to think that the final round game (Power V Blues) could determine our fate.
We dont need much to happen to land 9th, but would require the Power to beat the Blues definitely in the last round, hmmm you could see the filthy Powder drop a game and screw us.
If the Dons are stripped off points, 9th place may be the holy grail.
Its not impossible to think that the final round game (Power V Blues) could determine our fate.
We dont need much to happen to land 9th, but would require the Power to beat the Blues definitely in the last round, hmmm you could see the filthy Powder drop a game and screw us.
If the Dons are stripped off points, 9th place may be the holy grail.
Only decent prediction in the thread.
GROTTO
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