Analysis Why pick 4 is the most important selection the club will have in the next decade.

[crow2crow]

Unless I have forgotten more since 2018, top picks

Elite - JHF, Rankine,
Likely elite - TT, Wanganeen-Milera, Philippou
Questions out but have shown quality - Pedlar, Luko
Dud - Stephens

Not too shabby IMO

and Stephens is fake SA anyway

 

[Crow till I die]

Just take Smith. Langford a decent amount behind him as a prospect in my view

And I think being able to obtain Sharp (if he’s consensus #1) is going to be beyond our capability

Unless we get our hands somehow on Richmonds F1

 

[Danger in Texas]

Unless we get our hands somehow on Richmonds F1

I don’t think they’d do that type of deal. They know they’re winning the wooden spoon next year already haha

 

[119others]

If we pick the local boy at the expense of better talent we lose regardless if they stay the career or not.

Normally agreed, but not always. Just ask Kangas and JHF

 

[119others]

They are 2028 arent they? I think if they go through the same process as Gold Coast and GWS, end of 2026 they will have access to local talent that can play for them probably in the VFL in 2027 then at the end of 2027 they hit the actual draft and have exclusive access to current AFL talent to lure. But officially I dont think they interfere with the draft until 2027 that is the year you dont want to be bottoming out. Which will be super hilarious if Port bottom out around then.

A couple of teams inc Pies are going to be totally screwed list wise come 2026/2027. Already about 10 players over 30 and no first rounder for 3 of the last 5 years. They are going to need to grab a shitload of FA’s

 

[119others]

Draper isn’t more agile than smith , he’s quicker and has more burst speed

If you watch smith closely he has very similar looking agility to a Zac butters , his sideways movements buys him time and gets him through traffic

Who is more contested? Brutish?

Draper superior physically and Smith better skills and decision making it sounds like

Dangerfield when drafted lacked composure and a high skill level but easier to teach that than the pure physical traits of elite pace and brutish attack on the ball IMO

 

[119others]

I too prefer better disposal, that's why I would like smith as well. Just think draper has way too many other weapons that he's better at than anyone in the draft and that our side lacks.

Didn’t 6 of 18 recruiters recently say they would take Draper at one? If that’s true he’s unlikely to even make it to 4

 

[119others]

I don’t think they’d do that type of deal. They know they’re winning the wooden spoon next year already haha

0% chance Tigers do it. It’s fantasy land stuff

 

[GameofSloanes]

Unless I have forgotten more since 2018, top picks

Elite - JHF, Rankine,
Likely elite - TT, Wanganeen-Milera, Philippou
Questions out but have shown quality - Pedlar, Luko
Dud - Stephens

Not too shabby IMO

I'd be more likely to put Pedlar in dud, or nearly dud status

 

[GameofSloanes]

Didn’t 6 of 18 recruiters recently say they would take Draper at one? If that’s true he’s unlikely to even make it to 4

That's why aggressively pursuing SA talents the last couple of years can be handy (us and Port). Might stop someone from taking the risk of him going home, and get a local Vic kid instead

 

[Coopers]

A couple of teams inc Pies are going to be totally screwed list wise come 2026/2027. Already about 10 players over 30 and no first rounder for 3 of the last 5 years. They are going to need to grab a shitload of FA’s

If it's the pies, they'll be alright. They'll get a leg up when needed.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Who is more contested? Brutish?

Draper superior physically and Smith better skills and decision making it sounds like

Dangerfield when drafted lacked composure and a high skill level but easier to teach that than the pure physical traits of elite pace and brutish attack on the ball IMO

Contested , Brutish - Draper


Don’t underestimate Smith’s contested ball though , highly efficient and doesn’t fumble and stronger than he looks too

 

[119others]

Contested , Brutish - Draper


Don’t underestimate Smith’s contested ball though , highly efficient and doesn’t fumble and stronger than he looks too

Ok many thanks mate.

So a pacy, brutish player that already has high accumulation but needs work on skills / composure / decision making

Isn’t this like a superior Dangerfield when drafted?

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

We haven't been in this situation for a while!! Where in reality we have one spot and one good pick ...

I think we are all trying to work out how we can "game the system" and somehow maximise what we have - when really there is going to be 1 or 2 options in front of us on draft night when it gets to our pick.

There are two things we could in theory do:

(1) we could move up by trading in our F1 - but jeez that feels like a risky strategy. How can we be sure that THE player we want is THE man? I'm not certain how anyone could know that? The top 5, hell even the top 10, look pretty impressive as far as draftees go - what happens from here has too many ifs buts and maybes.

(2) we could split the pick into two first rounders and cut an extra player to make space - all indications are that we aren't going to do that. We aren't generally a club that takes those risks or is that brutal with it's contracted players. If the club somehow believed that Dodson was essential, we would have made moves already to accommodate that. Even we wouldn't take a project ruck with pick 4.

So, as boring as it sounds, we will pick the best rated midfielder on the board when it gets to our pick ... pat ourselves on the back (for finishing 15th and getting pick 4) and see what happens.

Actually something we as supporters have been crying out for from the draft - a top end elite mid.

There is no point spending next years picks to move up when the quality of player won't be significantly different.

We don't want to split picks as we lose out on a quality midfielder & we don't need another pick.

If we do want to come back into the draft, we can use our futures assuming we make a spare list spot.

 

[119others]

I'd be more likely to put Pedlar in dud, or nearly dud status

Yeah fair enough. He was the most questionable of all I must admit. Injuries have interrupted at least 2 of his 4 years on list. 2023 he looked like he could be an elite small forward and mid IMO

Still has 2 years left on contract and 2025 is clearly crucial for him. Good to see him training already

 

[119others]

That's why aggressively pursuing SA talents the last couple of years can be handy (us and Port). Might stop someone from taking the risk of him going home, and get a local Vic kid instead

Agree 100%. Should be a clear strategy from both SA clubs that EVERY half decent draftee (so excluding players like Stephens) will see us relentlessly pursue the players each and every contract year - if not earlier even

 

[Moonwatcher]

We would've been better off with Ebert in the end.

Or selling Dangerfield a year earlier while under contract.

 

[Moonwatcher]

So, as boring as it sounds, we will pick the best rated midfielder on the board when it gets to our pick ... pat ourselves on the back (for finishing 15th and getting pick 4) and see what happens.

Actually something we as supporters have been crying out for from the draft - a top end elite mid.

Got to give credit to Nicks. He got the job done.

 

[119others]

Or selling Dangerfield a year earlier while under contract.

He was only ever going to Cats. They are complete pricks to deal with. Even their “3 first rounders” for JC were pretty crappy ones and only worth about the same points we got for Danger 9 and 28

The trading future picks only came in around that time so not sure it was even an option in 2014.

Finally if you have effectively the best player in the competition on your list (Danger won B/low the year he left us) you are taking a MASSIVE risk trading them out early unless certain they were leaving - and generally players aren’t that transparent

Not sure club can be blamed for not trading out early (unlike TipRat which clearly we should have)

 

[WetCrow1991]

If you keep missing every top 5 pick you have then of course the next one is more important into perpetuity. If we miss this one you will be saying the same thing in a few years time.

Next year

 

[Jeffcrowe]

Ok many thanks mate.

So a pacy, brutish player that already has high accumulation but needs work on skills / composure / decision making

Isn’t this like a superior Dangerfield when drafted?

Not really as Draper is a fair bit smaller

Danger early days could play forward and take overhead marks , think he kicked 6 as a deep forward in his 2nd season

Draper accumulates more , danger took quite a few years to start getting >25

Draper will get the ball more and sooner due to increased endurance ( and other things ) , I don’t think anywhere near as damaging due to handball ratio and less penetration by foot than Dangerfield

 

[Moonwatcher]

He was only ever going to Cats. They are complete pricks to deal with. Even their “3 first rounders” for JC were pretty crappy ones and only worth about the same points we got for Danger 9 and 28

The trading future picks only came in around that time so not sure it was even an option in 2014.

Finally if you have effectively the best player in the competition on your list (Danger won B/low the year he left us) you are taking a MASSIVE risk trading them out early unless certain they were leaving - and generally players aren’t that transparent

Not sure club can be blamed for not trading out early (unlike TipRat which clearly we should have)

Yes, I'm talking perfect 20/20 hindsight here

 

[crow2crow]

Unless we get our hands somehow on Richmonds F1

we should be bringing everything forward not back...

dawson crouch not getting any younger

 

[Crow till I die]

we should be bringing everything forward not back...

dawson crouch not getting any younger

Look, as unlikely as it is we could trick Richmond into doing a trade (where we still take a top 10 player in this draft mind) where we get their F1. Imagine the doors that opens up? Finn Callaghan is OOC at the end of next year, it could give us room to come up with a monster offer for him and we would have the draft collateral to get it done with GWS. Likewise Phillipou or NWM etc. I seriously would be trying to see if they are open to a draft night trade down and a swap of picks IF the player they want in Smith is sitting there at our pick 4.

 

[ams4crows]

The fact Tassie is coming in is why Draper is important for us purely because you assume Tassie will poach some players from Vic clubs meaning they'll be space on those Melbourne clubs list to go talent hunting.

If we pick any of those Vic lads and turn in to great players, these days clubs are selling the farm in terms of 7 year million dollar Deals.

Just watch what happens to Reid, he's not staying at West Coast long term. It's now Vic clubs jostling to get into position in order to recruit him.

It's a player market now, big long term offers and you can chose where ever you want to go. Especially with two year worth of future picks about to be able to trade, club are going to have 2 or 3 firsts to give up for these players