Where will we finish ?

Where will we finish?

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There are a few coaches around the comp that seem to have figured Melbourne out since the middle of the season. Fagan and crew have adjusted our game plan as well as is evident in the last couple of weeks. This gives me hope.
 
Jeremiah001 said:
There are a few coaches around the comp that seem to have figured Melbourne out since the middle of the season. Fagan and crew have adjusted our game plan as well as is evident in the last couple of weeks. This gives me hope.
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Until we beat Melbourne, which Im not expecting any time soon, I doubt Fagan and he's assistance are in the category of being one of the few coaches. Time will tell.
 

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Hard to think what the ideal match-up is for us. Honestly, while top 4 is obviously the preference I wouldn't be too fussed if we finished 5th and got Carlton/Saints/Dogs at home first week, a win there could potentially shake off some demons and get us up and about for a charge. Richmond in an elimination final is a scary thought though.

Cats or Swans away aren't ideal if we make the 4 but I'd give us a good shout in the latter scenario.
 
Jeremiah001 said:
There are a few coaches around the comp that seem to have figured Melbourne out since the middle of the season. Fagan and crew have adjusted our game plan as well as is evident in the last couple of weeks. This gives me hope.
Click to expand...
It appears beating Melbourne template involves 2 parts. I'm no expert but this is based on various analysis done by people who get paid for spouting this stuff.

Geelong and other teams template - switch from side to side in D50, stretch their zone until a short option opens up further afield. Then change angles to go short initially and from that point go fast to catch their defense out. This requires lot of precision kicking and trusting your defensive setup to mark the ball going side to side. This method also seems to use Gawn as the focal point up the field, look for wherever Gawn is 40-50 out, use him as the center and try to go over or around him. This method relies a lot on kicking across the field in defense, be alert to run back and help with the switch and not panic.

Collingwood template - 100% dare. A big F U to your zone, we'll come out of defense and if I like an option further up the field, I'll follow my instinct with zero hesitation and kick to that player. There is no second guessing here so the ball keeps flying over your head and wherever it lands they swarm the opposition to try and overwhelm them. Trick is, they've perfected it over the last 10-11 weeks so they continue to back this approach even if it seems to fail from time to time. There is no wallowing in misery, poor me I missed a kick etc. They just keep going for it and they know now that if they keep at it - the game will turn in their favor.

The first model is what we sort of do and we have adjusted a bit recently which is nice to see. Even yesterday, Daniher was running back to defend but at the same time pointing the other player to run and cover the next guy further down the line. There was good comms between players and they all were able to direct each other. The reason this also worked is, Carlton hesitated. They were going back from the mark and didn't go that fast earlier. We had time to adjust. But the Geelong or Melbourne or even Pies won't give us that few seconds, they'll just go.

Second part of our adjustment comes from what happened in Q4. When we stop we tend to come to a grinding halt. Slow jog, have one big effort and then lie on the floor watching opposition run away from us etc. Even Zorko was guilty of it yesterday, he went to ground at center too easy and stayed there once or twice. Will our team be able to keep the pressure up for all 4 quarters is the other question. With top 2 or 3 teams, they'll keep coming even in Q4, there is no time to relax and take a breather.
 
mpal6 said:
It appears beating Melbourne template involves 2 parts. I'm no expert but this is based on various analysis done by people who get paid for spouting this stuff.

Geelong and other teams template - switch from side to side in D50, stretch their zone until a short option opens up further afield. Then change angles to go short initially and from that point go fast to catch their defense out. This requires lot of precision kicking and trusting your defensive setup to mark the ball going side to side. This method also seems to use Gawn as the focal point up the field, look for wherever Gawn is 40-50 out, use him as the center and try to go over or around him. This method relies a lot on kicking across the field in defense, be alert to run back and help with the switch and not panic.

Collingwood template - 100% dare. A big F U to your zone, we'll come out of defense and if I like an option further up the field, I'll follow my instinct with zero hesitation and kick to that player. There is no second guessing here so the ball keeps flying over your head and wherever it lands they swarm the opposition to try and overwhelm them. Trick is, they've perfected it over the last 10-11 weeks so they continue to back this approach even if it seems to fail from time to time. There is no wallowing in misery, poor me I missed a kick etc. They just keep going for it and they know now that if they keep at it - the game will turn in their favor.

The first model is what we sort of do and we have adjusted a bit recently which is nice to see. Even yesterday, Daniher was running back to defend but at the same time pointing the other player to run and cover the next guy further down the line. There was good comms between players and they all were able to direct each other. The reason this also worked is, Carlton hesitated. They were going back from the mark and didn't go that fast earlier. We had time to adjust. But the Geelong or Melbourne or even Pies won't give us that few seconds, they'll just go.

Second part of our adjustment comes from what happened in Q4. When we stop we tend to come to a grinding halt. Slow jog, have one big effort and then lie on the floor watching opposition run away from us etc. Even Zorko was guilty of it yesterday, he went to ground at center too easy and stayed there once or twice. Will our team be able to keep the pressure up for all 4 quarters is the other question. With top 2 or 3 teams, they'll keep coming even in Q4, there is no time to relax and take a breather.
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Nice post. This is as good of a summary as I have seen or heard.
 
Fox have done their ladder predictor >

PREDICTED WEEK 1 FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Geelong Cats vs Collingwood at the MCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium


Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Brisbane Lions vs Richmond at the Gabba

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Sydney Swans vs Melbourne at the SCG
_________________________________________

PREDICTED FINAL LADDER

1. Geelong Cats (18-4)

2. Sydney Swans (16-6)

3. Melbourne (16-6)


4. Collingwood (16-6)

5. Fremantle (15-6-1)

6. Brisbane Lions (15-7)

7. Richmond (13-8-1)

8. Western Bulldogs (12-10)
 
M Malice said:
Fox have done their ladder predictor >

PREDICTED WEEK 1 FINALS

First Qualifying Final (1st hosts 4th): Geelong Cats vs Collingwood at the MCG

First Elimination Final (5th hosts 8th): Fremantle vs Western Bulldogs at Optus Stadium


Second Elimination Final (6th hosts 7th): Brisbane Lions vs Richmond at the Gabba

Second Qualifying Final (2nd hosts 3rd): Sydney Swans vs Melbourne at the SCG
_________________________________________

PREDICTED FINAL LADDER

1. Geelong Cats (18-4)

2. Sydney Swans (16-6)

3. Melbourne (16-6)


4. Collingwood (16-6)

5. Fremantle (15-6-1)

6. Brisbane Lions (15-7)

7. Richmond (13-8-1)

8. Western Bulldogs (12-10)
Click to expand...

1 game off second spot
 
M Malice said:
Looking like we may have to win both games to make top 4, although I expect an upset or 2 before the end of the H&A season, these ladder predictors rarely work out.
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Assuming we beat St Kilda (putting that to the side), if we lose to Melbourne then we effectively need the loser of Sydney/Collingwood to lose in Round 23 as well (against St Kilda and Carlton respectively) to make top 4.

The Cats are locked in ahead of us given their percentage and the two game gap.

The loss to Melbourne will pretty much ensure they finish at worst on the same points but with a (likely) better percentage.

The winner of Sydney/Collingwood will be a game or (likely) percentage ahead of us.

The exception is if we overtake Sydney on percentage by flogging St Kilda and barely losing to Melbourne which is getting very edge case.
 
dlanod said:
Assuming we beat St Kilda (putting that to the side), if we lose to Melbourne then we effectively need the loser of Sydney/Collingwood to lose in Round 23 as well (against St Kilda and Carlton respectively) to make top 4.

The Cats are locked in ahead of us given their percentage and the two game gap.

The loss to Melbourne will pretty much ensure they finish at worst on the same points but with a (likely) better percentage.

The winner of Sydney/Collingwood will be a game or (likely) percentage ahead of us.

The exception is if we overtake Sydney on percentage by flogging St Kilda and barely losing to Melbourne which is getting very edge case.
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I dont think this cuts it. Freo will win their last 2 and finish half a game above us if we only win 1 game.

Freo are the sleeping top 4 finisher atm, with west coast and gws to finish.
 

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DevRoboGun said:
I dont think this cuts it. Freo will win their last 2 and finish half a game above us if we only win 1 game.

Freo are the sleeping top 4 finisher atm, with west coast and gws to finish.
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Yeah, if we lose to Melbourne only way we make top 4 is if we thump Saint by over 10 goals, Pies beat Swans but don't beat the Saints by more than two goals and Freo drop one game. Way too much to rely on going our way. Really just gotta win these last two.

If we were to win our two last games but fell short of top 2 who would people rather play: Swans at SCG or Pies at MCG?
 
pulpdriver said:
Yeah, if we lose to Melbourne only way we make top 4 is if we thump Saint by over 10 goals, Pies beat Swans but don't beat the Saints by more than two goals and Freo drop one game. Way too much to rely on going our way. Really just gotta win these last two.

If we were to win our two last games but fell short of top 2 who would people rather play: Swans at SCG or Pies at MCG?
Click to expand...

Not particularly fussed to be honest.

Pies would be due for a loss by then ;)
 
pulpdriver said:
Yeah, if we lose to Melbourne only way we make top 4 is if we thump Saint by over 10 goals, Pies beat Swans but don't beat the Saints by more than two goals and Freo drop one game. Way too much to rely on going our way. Really just gotta win these last two.

If we were to win our two last games but fell short of top 2 who would people rather play: Swans at SCG or Pies at MCG?
Click to expand...

I'd rather play Pies. If they made it to top 2, it means they've won all games. That'll be enormous weight to carry into finals.

From our perspective - a houseful MCG of feral Pies fans would be close to the very top in terms of high pressure scenarios. I'd prefer to face them.
 
McIvor said:
A draw between Swans and Pies this week would be helpful.
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I think I would rather a Swans win, the Pies percentage is woeful and we would go past them if they lost, the Swans are not all that far in front of us percentage wise, a narrow win for the Swans and a good solid percentage boosting win for us and we go past both of them.

If the Blues could upset the Demons we could even sneak into 2nd place.
 
pulpdriver said:
Yeah, if we lose to Melbourne only way we make top 4 is if we thump Saint by over 10 goals, Pies beat Swans but don't beat the Saints by more than two goals and Freo drop one game. Way too much to rely on going our way. Really just gotta win these last two.

If we were to win our two last games but fell short of top 2 who would people rather play: Swans at SCG or Pies at MCG?
Click to expand...
Pies at MCG… they will forever be our September bunnies
 
Elixuh said:
It is a shame that we had the COVID loss to Essendon, looks like that'll be the difference.
Click to expand...
It neednt have been had Fagan selected Mathieson. Have no doubt we win that game if Rhys was selected. It sounds like Fagan has admitted as much.

As someone else posted, the coach/match committe or whatever they call it has directly cost us two wins in my view - not the players
 

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