Where will we finish ?

[On the quiet]

We have a pretty hard run home > Suns(H), Tigers(A), Blues(H), Saints(A), Demons(H)... we need to bring our best, I could envision us winning all 5 or conversely losing 2 or 3.

Don't want to look too far ahead but I know the Tigers had Lynch and Martin out yesterday but North were in front for virtually three quarters of the game.

Zurhaar kicked 6 yesterday, 4 on Grimes, Grimes also dropped the chest mark against the Suns the previous week with 45 seconds to go and the Suns scored from that. I just hope they leave Balta forward as I think their defence is much weaker with him not there, and I believe we beat them even at the 'G'

I am glad we are playing the blues at the GABBA.

Confident we can lose one of the remaining five and make top 4, drop two games and probably rely on %

 

[mpal6]

Ideally Geelong finish first and we finish fourth. Lions v Geelong at the G sounds like a fantastic first final.

I like our chances against Geelong. We match up well to them.

Just need to be aggressive in the middle and build on that defensive effort we showed yesterday. We can push them.

 

[M Malice]

I like our chances against Geelong. We match up well to them.

Just need to be aggressive in the middle and build on that defensive effort we showed yesterday. We can push them.

Yep, I fancy our chances against them as well. IMO the Premiers will come from the Cats, Demons or Lions.... can not see the Dockers or Blues winning it this season, if I had to nominate a flag smokie it would be the Swans.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Yeah another 10 goal belting from Melbourne will be a pretty horrible start to the finals

 

[mpal6]

Yeah another 10 goal belting from Melbourne will be a pretty horrible start to the finals

Then we better beat them in Round 23 so don't have to enter finals with that hanging over us.

 

[M Malice]

Next weeks games that have implications for us re top 2/4.... 3rd to 7th is bloody tight, can't afford too many slip ups.

Tigers v Dockers - A win for the Tigers at home would be good for us.
Swans v Crows - Crows no chance at the SCG.
Port v Cats - Can't see Port winning even at home.
Bulldogs v Demons - Bulldogs a sneaky chance IMO.
Blues v Giants - Giants no chance.
Magpies v Bombers - Go Bombers.
Lions v Suns - Percentage booster for the Lions.

Current ladder.

Cats- 52, 137%
Demons- 52, 132.6%
Lions- 48, 126%
Dockers- 48, 120.6%
Magpies- 48, 106.2%
Swans- 44, 120.8%
Blues- 44, 113.4%

Tigers, Bulldogs, Saints 36.

 

[luthor]

Lock in Geelong and Melbourne for for 1st and 2nd

Richmond, Dogs and Saints are fighting it out for 8th


Third to seventh is up for grabs with Lions, Freo, Pies , Swans and Carlton all in the mix

In terms of current ladder positions:-

Lions have Suns (12th), Richmond(8th), Carlton (7th), 10th (Saints) and 2nd (Melbourne)

Freo have Richmond (8th), Melbourne (2nd), Dogs 9th), WCE (17th), and GWS (15th)

Magpies have Essendon (14th), Port 11th), Melbourne (2nd), Sydney (6th) and Carlton (7th)

Swans have Adelaide (16th), GWS(15th), North (18th), Magpies (5th) and Saints (10th)

Carlton have GWS (15th), Adelaide (16th), Lions (3rd), Melbourne (2nd) and Collingwood (5th)

For the purpose of the exercise, if we sum the ladder positions of the opponents of the five teams we get:-

Lions= 39 (Avg = 7.80)

Freo = 51 (Avg 10.20)

Pies = 40 (Avg = 8.0)

Swans = 64 ( avg = 12.80)

Carlton = 41 (Avg = 8.20)

It might be a simplistic way of looking at it but the Swans have an absolutely dream run home and are a realistic chance of winning all 5. Even if they drop one of their last two, they probably get big %age boosts out of the other 4

Freo's draw is tricky for the next three rounds but they finish with two gimmie's and potentially two big percentage boosters as well

Lions , Pies and Blues all have similar degrees of difficulty.

We have a substantial percentage advantage over both of these so I'm pretty confident we finish in front of both.

On this basis, I think we finish 3rd, 4th or 5th.

We still have a 5-6 percentage lead over both Freo and Sydney but in order to be certain of a top 4 spot, I think we have to win 4 of our last 5.

I think we get home against the Suns, Carlton and the Saints so our season could well hinge on beating either Richmond at the MCG or Melbourne at the Gabba in the last round.

Whichever way you look at it , we absolutely MUST win next week.

A loss to the Suns and i think we can almost kiss our Top 4 hopes goodbye.

 

[M Malice]

Whateley an King don't think much of our chances this year, have us behind Magpies and Swans in their rankings >

David King and Gerard Whateley’s top 4 seeds after Round 18, 2022

KING:

1. Geelong

“Assets everywhere, point of difference everywhere.

“I’m starting to think right now there is a big gap between one and two.

“Some work to do for the chasing pack.”

2. Melbourne

“I’m worried about the Dees.

“I’m glad they got out of jail on the weekend against Port Adelaide … but they’re a stone in my shoe at the moment.”

3. Collingwood

“People say they haven’t played anyone, you don’t win eight in a row in this competition playing no one.

“That’s just crazy. That’s nonsense.”

4. Sydney

“I didn’t think I’d have them in the top six at this stage of the year.”
___________________________________________________________
WHATELEY:

1. Geelong

“They’re the carry over champions.

“I think those seedings make sense.

“It’s one of those rare occasions during the year where they just make sense.”

2. Melbourne

“Two, Melbourne.”

3. Collingwood

“Eight in a row – they demand a place.”

4. Sydney

“Been the hardest team to peg, but profoundly impressed with Saturday night.

“Their game is in order.”

 

[martinson]

Whateley an King don't think much of our chances this year, have us behind Magpies and Swans in their rankings >

David King and Gerard Whateley’s top 4 seeds after Round 18, 2022

KING:

1. Geelong

“Assets everywhere, point of difference everywhere.

“I’m starting to think right now there is a big gap between one and two.

“Some work to do for the chasing pack.”

2. Melbourne

“I’m worried about the Dees.

“I’m glad they got out of jail on the weekend against Port Adelaide … but they’re a stone in my shoe at the moment.”

3. Collingwood

“People say they haven’t played anyone, you don’t win eight in a row in this competition playing no one.

“That’s just crazy. That’s nonsense.”

4. Sydney

“I didn’t think I’d have them in the top six at this stage of the year.”
___________________________________________________________
WHATELEY:

1. Geelong

“They’re the carry over champions.

“I think those seedings make sense.

“It’s one of those rare occasions during the year where they just make sense.”

2. Melbourne

“Two, Melbourne.”

3. Collingwood

“Eight in a row – they demand a place.”

4. Sydney

“Been the hardest team to peg, but profoundly impressed with Saturday night.

“Their game is in order.”

These guys are nothing if not predictable.

People have been falling for Geelong around this time of the year for seasons on end.

Collingwood just fell in against Adelaide by 5 points. OK Cool.

Sydney were poison a couple of weeks ago now 'their game is in order'

 

[mpal6]

These guys are nothing if not predictable.

People have been falling for Geelong around this time of the year for seasons on end.

Collingwood just fell in against Adelaide by 5 points. OK Cool.

Sydney were poison a couple of weeks ago now 'their game is in order'

Sydney's charge could fall apart between Adelaide, GWS and Pies. All their bogey teams are coming up. I'm surprised these guys are raging about them.

 

[davemc_lions]

Pure form over the last 8 weeks, not been great. Lost to Freo, Bombers, Demons and Hawks. LWLWLWLW so this week
Although also the final rounds we playing teams who been up and down as well.
So I have no idea We could win all or loose all
The run home
R19: Gold Coast @ Gabba WLLWL
R20: Richmond @ MCG WLWLL
R21: Carlton @ Gabba LWLWL
R22: St Kilda @ Marvel Stadium LLWLL
R23: Melbourne @ Gabba LWWLW

 

[McIvor]

Whateley an King don't think much of our chances this year, have us behind Magpies and Swans in their rankings >

David King and Gerard Whateley’s top 4 seeds after Round 18, 2022

KING:

1. Geelong

“Assets everywhere, point of difference everywhere.

“I’m starting to think right now there is a big gap between one and two.

“Some work to do for the chasing pack.”

2. Melbourne

“I’m worried about the Dees.

“I’m glad they got out of jail on the weekend against Port Adelaide … but they’re a stone in my shoe at the moment.”

3. Collingwood

“People say they haven’t played anyone, you don’t win eight in a row in this competition playing no one.

“That’s just crazy. That’s nonsense.”

4. Sydney

“I didn’t think I’d have them in the top six at this stage of the year.”
___________________________________________________________
WHATELEY:

1. Geelong

“They’re the carry over champions.

“I think those seedings make sense.

“It’s one of those rare occasions during the year where they just make sense.”

2. Melbourne

“Two, Melbourne.”

3. Collingwood

“Eight in a row – they demand a place.”

4. Sydney

“Been the hardest team to peg, but profoundly impressed with Saturday night.

“Their game is in order.”

Sounds like I should pass on 360 tonight. GW cant stand fawning all over Carlton, wonder if hes views changed of them - sounds like Collingwood has replaced Carlton and like all journos in recent weeks will be signing the praises of Collingwood and how amazing they are. I had a read of Collingwoods trading thread and gosh, they are obviously the chosen annointed ones with every major talent wanting to play there and the desitnation club. Hell, even Rhys Mathieson is being discussed as a cheap target. Dan would want to be good there b/c most of them dont want him so can only imaging what its going to be like when he under-performs 50% of the time.

I am also expecting Daicos Jnr making the AA team such is he journos claims that he will be ignoring how long it takes for most interstate players to even make the top 40 let alone final 22.

 

[Nathan Barley]

Whateley an King don't think much of our chances this year, have us behind Magpies and Swans in their rankings >

David King and Gerard Whateley’s top 4 seeds after Round 18, 2022

KING:

1. Geelong

“Assets everywhere, point of difference everywhere.

“I’m starting to think right now there is a big gap between one and two.

“Some work to do for the chasing pack.”

2. Melbourne

“I’m worried about the Dees.

“I’m glad they got out of jail on the weekend against Port Adelaide … but they’re a stone in my shoe at the moment.”

3. Collingwood

“People say they haven’t played anyone, you don’t win eight in a row in this competition playing no one.

“That’s just crazy. That’s nonsense.”

4. Sydney

“I didn’t think I’d have them in the top six at this stage of the year.”
___________________________________________________________
WHATELEY:

1. Geelong

“They’re the carry over champions.

“I think those seedings make sense.

“It’s one of those rare occasions during the year where they just make sense.”

2. Melbourne

“Two, Melbourne.”

3. Collingwood

“Eight in a row – they demand a place.”

4. Sydney

“Been the hardest team to peg, but profoundly impressed with Saturday night.

“Their game is in order.”

Sydney or freo i get but Collingwood is just click bait

 

[Dalions]

Whateley an King don't think much of our chances this year, have us behind Magpies and Swans in their rankings >

David King and Gerard Whateley’s top 4 seeds after Round 18, 2022

KING:

1. Geelong

“Assets everywhere, point of difference everywhere.

“I’m starting to think right now there is a big gap between one and two.

“Some work to do for the chasing pack.”

2. Melbourne

“I’m worried about the Dees.

“I’m glad they got out of jail on the weekend against Port Adelaide … but they’re a stone in my shoe at the moment.”

3. Collingwood

“People say they haven’t played anyone, you don’t win eight in a row in this competition playing no one.

“That’s just crazy. That’s nonsense.”

4. Sydney

“I didn’t think I’d have them in the top six at this stage of the year.”
___________________________________________________________
WHATELEY:

1. Geelong

“They’re the carry over champions.

“I think those seedings make sense.

“It’s one of those rare occasions during the year where they just make sense.”

2. Melbourne

“Two, Melbourne.”

3. Collingwood

“Eight in a row – they demand a place.”

4. Sydney

“Been the hardest team to peg, but profoundly impressed with Saturday night.

“Their game is in order.”

I will give you my list of top 8 players that we need to get into form fast if we want to push for a Premiership.

1. Jarryd Lyons - we need him in form to atleast break even against the bigger midfields of the comp in finals (Geelong, Melbourne, Carlton)

2. Joe Daniher - need him kicking goals and at a minimum contesting the high ball, at the moment he isn’t.

3. Zac Bailey - one of our most influential when up and about (sorry Fish) he hasn’t really been the same since he got Covid need him in form fast.

4. Daniel Rich - has lost confidence in his kicking and especially his attacking kicking and short kicks. We all know what he provides when at his best.

5. Dayne Zorko - Fitness is the issue with Zorks, get him fit and he could be the leader in pressure and the X factor that we are missing.

6. Marcus Adams - similar to Bailey in that he just hasn’t been the same since getting Covid. Possibly the week or 2 off may be good for his run into finals. Need his marking ability back in defence.

7. Eric Hipwood - He was in great form before doing his ACL Last year, that Eric Hipwood we need back to push for a flag and like Daniher we need him to compete better under the high ball. Too many easy marks to opposition in our offensive 50.

8. Cam Rayner - need his explosiveness and breakaway ability in the middle back to where it was about 5-6 weeks ago and for a bit longer in games.

We get these players back to their best and we will be as good a chance as any come finals. And I still think we are a chance of top 2 if we can get everything to click.
If we can make it to 2nd on the ladder, it could be a salivating first week of the finals at the Gabba against Melbourne.

 

[davemc_lions]

Sydney or freo i get but Collingwood is just click bait

Actually the last couple of week the pies been a little off just beating roos and crows
Their losses Cats, Eagles, Lions, Tigers and Dogs. Apart from Eagles all in the top 9
We lost against Hawks and Bombers Cats, Demons and Freo. They beat 4 of the 5 we lost too.

On their day I think they can challenge although who knows. There form better then us and I hate the pies

 

[davemc_lions]

I will give you my list of top 8 players that we need to get into form fast if we want to push for a Premiership.

1. Jarryd Lyons - we need him in form to atleast break even against the bigger midfields of the comp in finals (Geelong, Melbourne, Carlton)

2. Joe Daniher - need him kicking goals and at a minimum contesting the high ball, at the moment he isn’t.

3. Zac Bailey - one of our most influential when up and about (sorry Fish) he hasn’t really been the same since he got Covid need him in form fast.

4. Daniel Rich - has lost confidence in his kicking and especially his attacking kicking and short kicks. We all know what he provides when at his best.

5. Dayne Zorko - Fitness is the issue with Zorks, get him fit and he could be the leader in pressure and the X factor that we are missing.

6. Marcus Adams - similar to Bailey in that he just hasn’t been the same since getting Covid. Possibly the week or 2 off may be good for his run into finals. Need his marking ability back in defence.

7. Eric Hipwood - He was in great form before doing his ACL Last year, that Eric Hipwood we need back to push for a flag and like Daniher we need him to compete better under the high ball. Too many easy marks to opposition in our offensive 50.

8. Cam Rayner - need his explosiveness and breakaway ability in the middle back to where it was about 5-6 weeks ago and for a bit longer in games.

We get these players back to their best and we will be as good a chance as any come finals. And I still think we are a chance of top 2 if we can get everything to click.
If we can make it to 2nd on the ladder, it could be a salivating first week of the finals at the Gabba against Melbourne.

good post the worry is the decline coming sooner then expect for Lyons, Rich and Zorko. Or they carrying something or bit of both

Rayner might not get to where we hoped just be a great solid player not Dusty Mk2 . Hipwood might be better next year.

Bailey, Adams and Joe the ones that need to find form.. as look above some weeks we carrying 6-8 players

 

[Mighty Lions]

These guys are nothing if not predictable.

People have been falling for Geelong around this time of the year for seasons on end.

Collingwood just fell in against Adelaide by 5 points. OK Cool.

Sydney were poison a couple of weeks ago now 'their game is in order'

They should jump on the Lions and post on BF.....would fit in perfectly. They lose to Adelaide on Saturday and the baby will be thown out with the bath water....sounds like a familiar story somewhere.

 

[martinson]

I will give you my list of top 8 players that we need to get into form fast if we want to push for a Premiership.

1. Jarryd Lyons - we need him in form to atleast break even against the bigger midfields of the comp in finals (Geelong, Melbourne, Carlton)

2. Joe Daniher - need him kicking goals and at a minimum contesting the high ball, at the moment he isn’t.

3. Zac Bailey - one of our most influential when up and about (sorry Fish) he hasn’t really been the same since he got Covid need him in form fast.

4. Daniel Rich - has lost confidence in his kicking and especially his attacking kicking and short kicks. We all know what he provides when at his best.

5. Dayne Zorko - Fitness is the issue with Zorks, get him fit and he could be the leader in pressure and the X factor that we are missing.

6. Marcus Adams - similar to Bailey in that he just hasn’t been the same since getting Covid. Possibly the week or 2 off may be good for his run into finals. Need his marking ability back in defence.

7. Eric Hipwood - He was in great form before doing his ACL Last year, that Eric Hipwood we need back to push for a flag and like Daniher we need him to compete better under the high ball. Too many easy marks to opposition in our offensive 50.

8. Cam Rayner - need his explosiveness and breakaway ability in the middle back to where it was about 5-6 weeks ago and for a bit longer in games.

We get these players back to their best and we will be as good a chance as any come finals. And I still think we are a chance of top 2 if we can get everything to click.
If we can make it to 2nd on the ladder, it could be a salivating first week of the finals at the Gabba against Melbourne.

Fantastic post. That's 8 very good players not performing near the level we would expect. Which sort of explains our patchy form this year.

Of those Bailey and Adams are the only ones I'd be confident about really coming good if covid has been the issue.

The others all have injury/recovery from injury issues that we don't really know the extent of.

Hipwood , Rayner and Daniher you'd hope would be better next year. Young enough to be better with a longer rest and more gym /rehab work.

Rich and Zorks are near the end. Lyons is maybe near the end but form not injury appears his issue.

 

[Mighty Lions]

Fantastic post. That's 8 very good players not performing near the level we would expect. Which sort of explains our patchy form this year.

Of those Bailey and Adams are the only ones I'd be confident about really coming good if covid has been the issue.

The others all have injury/recovery from injury issues that we don't really know the extent of.

Hipwood , Rayner and Daniher you'd hope would be better next year. Young enough to be better with a longer rest and more gym /rehab work.

Rich and Zorks are near the end. Lyons is maybe near the end but form not injury appears his issue.

Contrary to your post above, I think the 8 mentioned are all ready to step up and the timing to do so in August is perfect. Our coaching staff along with our medical staff are second to none....we are lucky to have such a well run & managed football club to follow and support unconditionally.

 

[martinson]

Contrary to your post above, I think the 8 mentioned are all ready to step up and the timing to do so in August is perfect. Our coaching staff along with our medical staff are second to none....we are lucky to have such a well run & managed football club to follow and support unconditionally.

That's good to hear ML.

I'm only putting up my impression from the outside. Everyone's carrying something at this stage of the year. It's often hard to tell to what extent.

If we could get a fit and well Zorko back that would provide a big impetus.

 

[Mighty Lions]

That's good to hear ML.

I'm only putting up my impression from the outside. Everyone's carrying something at this stage of the year. It's often hard to tell to what extent.

If we could get a fit and well Zorko back that would provide a big impetus.

No different to the other teams in the mix. Every team wants their list ready and their form as close to their best come end of August. It's still July here and we have not reached our best by a long way yet. We should all be excited rather than doom & gloom but...a week is a long time in footy isnt it martinson

 

[martinson]

No different to the other teams in the mix. Every team wants their list ready and their form as close to their best come end of August. It's still July here and we have not reached our best by a long way yet. We should all be excited rather than doom & gloom but...a week is a long time in footy isnt it martinson

It is indeed.

Last week's villain is this week's hero.

We have a lot of players either unavailable or down on form so you would hope we get better from here.

As long as we get at least 5th or 6th and have our list up and running by late August we're in with a chance.

 

[rye]

Whateley an King don't think much of our chances this year, have us behind Magpies and Swans in their rankings >

David King and Gerard Whateley’s top 4 seeds after Round 18, 2022

KING:

1. Geelong

“Assets everywhere, point of difference everywhere.

“I’m starting to think right now there is a big gap between one and two.

“Some work to do for the chasing pack.”

2. Melbourne

“I’m worried about the Dees.

“I’m glad they got out of jail on the weekend against Port Adelaide … but they’re a stone in my shoe at the moment.”

3. Collingwood

“People say they haven’t played anyone, you don’t win eight in a row in this competition playing no one.

“That’s just crazy. That’s nonsense.”

4. Sydney

“I didn’t think I’d have them in the top six at this stage of the year.”
___________________________________________________________
WHATELEY:

1. Geelong

“They’re the carry over champions.

“I think those seedings make sense.

“It’s one of those rare occasions during the year where they just make sense.”

2. Melbourne

“Two, Melbourne.”

3. Collingwood

“Eight in a row – they demand a place.”

4. Sydney

“Been the hardest team to peg, but profoundly impressed with Saturday night.

“Their game is in order.”

King was the only member of the first crack team to not have us in the top 4

whately ive noticed loves blowing smoke up the ass of melbourne clubs and is generally not worth listening to

 

[Dalions]

No different to the other teams in the mix. Every team wants their list ready and their form as close to their best come end of August. It's still July here and we have not reached our best by a long way yet. We should all be excited rather than doom & gloom but...a week is a long time in footy isnt it martinson

My post was not meant to be read as doom and gloom, only that we have a lot of improvement in us yet.
And I am hoping we can hit our best at the right time of the year.

 

[martinson]

My post was not meant to be read as doom and gloom, only that we have a lot of improvement in us yet.
And I am hoping we can hit our best at the right time of the year.

We're all hoping.

The issue is we haven't been in the form we would've expected all year. Are we just suddenly going to put it all together and get everyone back ,fit and firing ? Are we actually as good as we think we could be ?

Dunno. But it's possible.