Which game would have the biggest impact or butterfly effect on AFL history if the result was changed?

[BigVic]

Hawthorn vs Port Adelaide, 2014 Preliminary Final

What if Port Adelaide kicked straight and one more goal? Hawthorn one-and-done and Sydney would've faced Port in that year's Grand Final. Could've gone either way with Sydney's Grand Final record and Hinkley a potential premiership coach in his 2nd year at the helm.

 

[Fadge]

GAJ misses in the dying minutes of the 2007 Preliminary Final.

Collingwood start their own dynasty and Geelong again fail to get the monkey off the back...

 

[craffles]

I guess biggest impact on history would have to be something extremely significant so my votes go to GWS vs Tigers grand final or Freo VS hawthorn grand final allowing both those sides to win their first premiership.

 

[Fluro Boots]

1999 prelim, Wallis hits the top of the square or Fraser Brown misses the tackle. That Essendon side possibly wins the next week and ends up being a back to back side rather than the one that is largely seen as underperforming overall despite one of the best seasons ever in 2000.

 

[Colonial]

I guess biggest impact on history would have to be something extremely significant so my votes go to GWS vs Tigers grand final or Freo VS hawthorn grand final allowing both those sides to win their first premiership.

I reckon the Giants Dogs prelim in 16 possible would have had a bigger impact.
A possible Sydney Derby GF? Could have been interesting.

 

[Mr Meow]

St Kilda go back to back 2009-2010 and go on to become the powerhouse club of the 21st century.

It's two games, but I'm pretending the first premiership gives them that extra 1% belief the next season.

With Geelong and Collingwood reeling, the mighty Saints then threepeat in 2011.

 

[LuckyBounce!]

Geelong beat Hawthorn in the 08 grand final after only losing one game all year. They are then not as hell bent on redemption in the 09 grand final and St. Kilda get over the line!

 

[Franc de Borges]

Easily the 1971 Grand Final.

Both St. Kilda and Hawthorn enter the match with just one premiership apiece. Despite a 20 point lead at 3/4 time, the Saints are overrun and have still yet to add to their solitary flag. Hawthorn has since added 11.

Honourable mentions:

1970 Grand Final - The Colliwobbles isn’t a thing as the drought ends at three instead of eight, and Carlton arguably don’t become the league powerhouse. The result of the 1977, 1979, and 1981 Grand Finals also potentially impacted.

1984 Grand Final - Essendon’s drought continues while Hawthorn potentially win four (or more) in a row throughout the 1980s.

The key takeaway here is not to lose a big lead in a Grand Final.

 

[Toump Ass]

I wonder what would have happened if Dees didn't tank against Richmond in 2008 and Tom Scully got picked up by West Coast instead.

We'd get Dusty Martin and he'd probably be dead.

Butterfly Effect

 

[PetterdHoisted]

This is easy, 2020 Grand Final

No STAND rule if Geelong wins

If I could go back and given the choice:

-have to watch netball-footy the last 4 years

-or have to watch Geelong win that GF

Genuinely not sure what I would choose

 

[craffles]

I reckon the Giants Dogs prelim in 16 possible would have had a bigger impact.
A possible Sydney Derby GF? Could have been interesting.

Great call. First ever non vic GF derby with giants a possibility of winning their first flag would have been huge

 

[Roddy]

Comes down to one KICK, not just one game. Of course, we’ll never know, but Isaac Smith nails the easy set shot after the siren in the ‘16 QF, and we, choc-full of confidence, momentum, and multi-premiership superstars, sweep through and take the flag, giving us a four-peat and cementing that side as the greatest ever, not just among the greatest ever….

 

[Jon#]

2002 GF Collingwood vs Brisbane.
Rocca kicked a clear goal but was only given a behind.
But there was also another moment in the last quarter too where Lynch in front of Bris goals faked a push, not a hand even touched him, he gets the free and gets an easy goal. You could see the smirk on his face when he was payed it.
Two pivotal moments that robbed Collingwood of the win.
It's been a while but wasn't that faked free what put Bris in front and then Roccas robbing the nail in the coffin!

 

[jonnobackpocket]

2002 GF Collingwood vs Brisbane.
Rocca kicked a clear goal but was only given a behind.
But there was also another moment in the last quarter too where Lynch in front of Bris goals faked a push, not a hand even touched him, he gets the free and gets an easy goal. You could see the smirk on his face when he was payed it.
Two pivotal moments that robbed Collingwood of the win.
It's been a while but wasn't that faked free what put Bris in front and then Roccas robbing the nail in the coffin!

Yeah no way the best team of the modern era could have possibly won in they paid a goal

 

[Tarkyn_24]

GAJ misses in the dying minutes of the 2007 Preliminary Final.

Collingwood start their own dynasty and Geelong again fail to get the monkey off the back...

Chris Bryan with zero awareness another “great” moment from that game.

 

[Philhawk]

2013 Prelim - Hawks v Geelong

Hawks lose this game and Clarkson gets shown the door - not because he deserved to, but because the powers that be do him in.

The ripple effect is in his coaching tree.

Beveridge, Adam Simpson, Fagan all don’t get their roles (and Premierships).

The entire decade looks very different.

 

[Jon#]

Yeah no way the best team of the modern era could have possibly won in they paid a goal

Hi. I'm guessing you watched it? I was living in Qld at the time, footy wasn't anything big much north of Brisbane back then. I remember the days before the GF asking people I knew or at the shops "who you going for in the GF?" 99% of replies were "who cares, what that stupid Arial ping pong" or "what GF?"
GF day was like any other day where we were, no balloons, streamers or flags out at people's houses, business as usual.
The Rugby though polar opposite. You could hear cheers and yells all up and down the street from them watching.
Did you see that game? I think we were the only people in Yeppoon and Rocky watching it
Don't forget, that just 1 goal would have stopped their 2 in a row and 3 in a row. No bragging rights for any back to backs. A goal to you may seem insignificant but when you look at it in the light of what it should have done the outcome was hugely significant and far from a roll of the eyes. The win or loss of any GF can have huge knock on effects both positive and negative. Just 1 goal?

 

[jonnobackpocket]

Hi. I'm guessing you watched it? I was living in Qld at the time, footy wasn't anything big much north of Brisbane back then. I remember the days before the GF asking people I knew or at the shops "who you going for in the GF?" 99% of replies were "who cares, what that stupid Arial ping pong" or "what GF?"
GF day was like any other day where we were, no balloons, streamers or flags out at people's houses, business as usual.
The Rugby though polar opposite. You could hear cheers and yells all up and down the street from them watching.
Did you see that game? I think we were the only people in Yeppoon and Rocky watching it
Don't forget, that just 1 goal would have stopped their 2 in a row and 3 in a row. No bragging rights for any back to backs. A goal to you may seem insignificant but when you look at it in the light of what it should have done the outcome was hugely significant and far from a roll of the eyes. The win or loss of any GF can have huge knock on effects both positive and negative. Just 1 goal?

I can totally see how the number of people who were watching it in Queensland is relevant to the discussion………. Christ. Yeah I did, tier 2 on the wing actually. What it would have done to the result, so Collingwood win do they, without question, I’m sorry was it a kick after the final siren? I thought it happened in the 3rd quarter. Take your meds

 

[Blackhawk42]

2013 Prelim - Hawks v Geelong

Hawks lose this game and Clarkson gets shown the door - not because he deserved to, but because the powers that be do him in.

The ripple effect is in his coaching tree.

Beveridge, Adam Simpson, Fagan all don’t get their roles (and Premierships).

The entire decade looks very different.

The Sam Mitchell tackle on Shane Tuck early in 2010 literally saved Clarkson's job.

If that tackle isn't made and the Tigers win the game, who the hell knows what happens during that eventual 3-peat era.

 

[Hawkinspired]

2013 Prelim - Hawks v Geelong

Hawks lose this game and Clarkson gets shown the door - not because he deserved to, but because the powers that be do him in.

The ripple effect is in his coaching tree.

Beveridge, Adam Simpson, Fagan all don’t get their roles (and Premierships).

The entire decade looks very different.

Throw in Bolton as well. Though that wouldn’t change much for Carlton as they’d just find another coach to see out 3 and a half seasons before showing them the door.

 

[PhatBoy]

2013 Prelim - Hawks v Geelong

Hawks lose this game and Clarkson gets shown the door - not because he deserved to, but because the powers that be do him in.

The ripple effect is in his coaching tree.

Beveridge, Adam Simpson, Fagan all don’t get their roles (and Premierships).

The entire decade looks very different.

Good shout for sure.

From a Cats perspective I’m sure if it changes as much, not automatically anyway as Fremantle had a good record against us in general and they had won 2 Victorian finals against us that year and the year before. Winning the GF wasn’t going to be easy the week after. We still have fans who assume that if Varcoe kicks that goal and we win in extra time, we snare a fourth flag for the era; I’m not so certain

 

[Randall Stevens]

1966 Grand Final.

If the St Kilda didn't win that, they would have zero premierships in 128 years- but would they even be in the AFL today?

They had some extremely lean times from the mid 1970's to the early 1990's, both on and off field. Yet they still retained a fair amount of passionate support throughout that era, especially at Moorabbin. That support - along with some very clever deal making by Lindsay Fox and other administrators - kept the Club alive in the early to mid 80's. But would enough support still be there if the Club - even at that stage - had zero premierships in 80 - 90 years in the competition?

The five other foundation Clubs still in the AFL in their original form have all won a minimum of ten premierships. Of the four surviving Clubs to join the then VFL after 1897, the Bulldogs with two have the least premiership success.

Between the financial pressures which would have arisen and the aggressive merger policies of the AFL in the 90's, it would have been extremely difficult to survive this long without winning a premiership.

From a relatively less dramatic perspective, if the Saints don't win in 1966 would Alan Jeans ever have coached Hawthorn, and what would have been the butterfly effect of that?
With the Premiership won, he coached on at St Kilda until the end of 1976, and was then appointed at Hawthorn for the 1981 season.

However, if he had missed that flag, history would say it is very unlikely he would have coached 16 years without a flag. Say he finished up at St Kilda in 1969 or 1970 for the sake of the theory! In that case, by 1980 he is almost certainly coaching elsewhere or out of football altogether, and either not available or not considered for the Hawthorn job.

 

[Mr Meow]

This is easy, 2020 Grand Final

No STAND rule if Geelong wins

If I could go back and given the choice:

-have to watch netball-footy the last 4 years

-or have to watch Geelong win that GF

Genuinely not sure what I would choose

Easily the latter because in your deluded view the no "stand rule" might mean Richmond could upgrade the 2020 Covid flag to a 2022 version back at the home of football. You know, because Richmond could have remained a powerhouse.

 

[PetterdHoisted]

Easily the latter because in your deluded view the no "stand rule" might mean Richmond could upgrade the 2020 Covid flag to a 2022 version back at the home of football. You know, because Richmond could have remained a powerhouse.

ahhh, as I said, because we would still be playing footy, not a netball/footy hybrid abomination.

all because of that day.

hopefully not far away from STAND being abolished, maybe another year or two. Cornes came out last year in the papers absolutely rubbishing it, the first of the media in-club to do so. Didn't get any momentum though. Maybe this year a few more voices will chirp up. The umps are doing their bit quietly I feel, definitely less emphasis on the STAND shriek, and letting the game flow the way it used to, where they possibly can.

I'm fully confident we will make afl great again

(MAGA)

 

[Mr Meow]

ahhh, as I said, because we would still be playing footy, not a netball/footy hybrid abomination.

all because of that day.

hopefully not far away from STAND being abolished, maybe another year or two. Cornes came out last year in the papers absolutely rubbishing it, the first of the media in-club to do so. Didn't get any momentum though. Maybe this year a few more voices will chirp up. The umps are doing their bit quietly I feel, definitely less emphasis on the STAND shriek, and letting the game flow the way it used to, where they possibly can.

I'm fully confident we will make afl great again

(MAGA)

It's a tragedy how easy it was to dissolve a dynasty, that had to end in a Covid year no less.

Look how bad Richmond are now. All because umpires get to yell "stand".

That would be like Hawthorn crumbling after '08 with the deliberate rushed behind rule.