I think anyone we havent been able to beat consistently will still be our biggest threats. Port, Geelong and Richmond will trouble us again next year. All good teams, all going to be thereabouts youd think.
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Who is Hawthorn's biggest threat in 2016?
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cryptor
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I think Ceglar will be given first crack at Hale's spot (possibly reshuffled with McEvoy who is a better forward). Fitzpatrick is still raw.
The problem with Hale and Lake leaving is that their replacements are only going to be in the team because the spot is free, not because they dislodged those two through better performances like Langford did to Sewell last year (even if he regressed in 2015 due to injury).
Realistically you're not going to enjoy the luxury of that sort of handover with most retirements. These ones will almost certainly make us a weaker side in 2016. At best we can hope to stay as strong through a more speedy and mobile outfit.
We've got a coach that can evolve the gameplan at will and is excellent at timing it for our finals run without showing too much during the H&A rounds. We've got the experience and the cattle to go again, only injury and our own poor form can stop us.
With such a praise from the Cats, they certainly want something back. I shall take an annual leave on that Easter Monday enjoying the Cats-Hawks fight in the Coliseum.
cryptor
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He's not a better forward though. A very large part of Hale's role.
grumbleguts
User name to post ratio checks out
LOL 7 people have voted for freo. Is this sarcasm?
I mean do people even watch freo games? If I wanted to watch someone struggle to score for 120 minutes I'd watch some fat ugly old guys on a pub crawl.
I mean do people even watch freo games? If I wanted to watch someone struggle to score for 120 minutes I'd watch some fat ugly old guys on a pub crawl.
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I thought he was just the better player overall, that's what I meant by ruckman. Not just the tapwork, just the overall game. Ceglar went to another level before he was hit by injury.
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Our 4 biggest challengers are interstate teams (West Coast, Port, Freo, Sydney) which bodes well for us in terms of home ground advantage in the grand final. It makes finishing top 2 very important though. Not sure we can ride our luck again and try to repeat 2015.
Vdubs
Hall of Famer
All season, it was clear to me, and likely most people, that Hawthorn's best was easily the best. Did not need to finish top. That type of dominance came through in finals, despite the WCE loss. Pretty amazing. Much as I would be envious of a 4-play next year, and would love any team to stop it, deep down, I think it would be amazing to actually see a team in our life-time achieve that and be that dominant.
I just can't see any team being good enough when it counts to stop it happening.
I just can't see any team being good enough when it counts to stop it happening.
Railrider1978
Rookie
To be honest, it's hard to see anyone who stands out:
Freo - If it wasn't for their home ground advantage and soft draw in the 2nd half of the season they would have been lucky to be top 4, some very luck results in there. At best I can see them being at the same level next year which is not good enough. Needed a key forward. If they have a little bit of bad luck I can actually see them missing finals next year.
Eagles - Can see them dipping a little next year. Their midfield played out of their skins across the board with almost all having career best years. I can't see them replicating that and nor can I see where they can take another leap forward. I suspect teams will work out their gameplan and find a way to beat them - ala Hawks 2009 and Port 2015.
Port - A bit like the Eagles, everyone had career best years practically in 2014 and then dropped off 2014. I think they might improve but not sure the gameplan and midfield personnel is there to really challenge. They have some good results against us but best against best we'll win.
Swans - Their top 8 is fantastic when they're all there. Their weakness is the rest of them. Hard to see them challenging and in fact I am tipping they won't make finals.
Tigers - Really stagnating in my mind. Not much trade-wise to see how they improve, although those they did get fit where their holes are. Probably 5th/6th again. A mental danger to us if we meet in finals but that's all.
Cats - Some improvement is possible, but I think the balance of their recruits to exits (trades/delistings/retirements) is not as positive as most think. Again, I think they'll miss finals. Too many if's with injuries, etc.
North - Luckiest consecutive preliminary finalists ever. A 6-8 team and can't see why that will improve next year.
Dogs - Big jump this year and hard to do that 2 years running. If their key forwards and backs take a big step forward they could step up to top 4. Ruck is an issue too. Could be a threat but need everything to go right.
Crows - Will be thereabouts again, but need more top end midfield talent to make a GF.
Pies - Hard to get a read on the Pies. Not sure they're even a finals team as there's still a few pieces of the puzzle missing. Depth in the midfield remains a question and the backline has some question marks. Pains me to say it, but they could actually be the team that jumps up into the top 4 next year. I feel dirty.... like I need a shower with steel wool and laundry powder....
GWS - Too much instability this year too see them jumping. Midfield power now looks a little questionable. Might jump up into the 8 but not much more than that in 2016.
Suns - A big jump up the ladder this year if injuries abate. That's if...
Lions - Same as Suns. Not as bad as 17th.
Demons - They're my wildcard for 2016. I can see them getting 10 wins this year and causing some headaches through the year.
Saints - Don't think they'll change much in 2016. 6-8 wins only. Desperately need more midfield grunt. The only hole Carlisle will fill is the one at the end of their straw.
Bombers - Some good talent but spread too thin. No talented youth. Jobe looks shot. Another bottom 4 next year.
Blues - There was talk of the Saints being winless last year and this year. I'm struggling to see who the Blues can beat next year.....
Freo - If it wasn't for their home ground advantage and soft draw in the 2nd half of the season they would have been lucky to be top 4, some very luck results in there. At best I can see them being at the same level next year which is not good enough. Needed a key forward. If they have a little bit of bad luck I can actually see them missing finals next year.
Eagles - Can see them dipping a little next year. Their midfield played out of their skins across the board with almost all having career best years. I can't see them replicating that and nor can I see where they can take another leap forward. I suspect teams will work out their gameplan and find a way to beat them - ala Hawks 2009 and Port 2015.
Port - A bit like the Eagles, everyone had career best years practically in 2014 and then dropped off 2014. I think they might improve but not sure the gameplan and midfield personnel is there to really challenge. They have some good results against us but best against best we'll win.
Swans - Their top 8 is fantastic when they're all there. Their weakness is the rest of them. Hard to see them challenging and in fact I am tipping they won't make finals.
Tigers - Really stagnating in my mind. Not much trade-wise to see how they improve, although those they did get fit where their holes are. Probably 5th/6th again. A mental danger to us if we meet in finals but that's all.
Cats - Some improvement is possible, but I think the balance of their recruits to exits (trades/delistings/retirements) is not as positive as most think. Again, I think they'll miss finals. Too many if's with injuries, etc.
North - Luckiest consecutive preliminary finalists ever. A 6-8 team and can't see why that will improve next year.
Dogs - Big jump this year and hard to do that 2 years running. If their key forwards and backs take a big step forward they could step up to top 4. Ruck is an issue too. Could be a threat but need everything to go right.
Crows - Will be thereabouts again, but need more top end midfield talent to make a GF.
Pies - Hard to get a read on the Pies. Not sure they're even a finals team as there's still a few pieces of the puzzle missing. Depth in the midfield remains a question and the backline has some question marks. Pains me to say it, but they could actually be the team that jumps up into the top 4 next year. I feel dirty.... like I need a shower with steel wool and laundry powder....
GWS - Too much instability this year too see them jumping. Midfield power now looks a little questionable. Might jump up into the 8 but not much more than that in 2016.
Suns - A big jump up the ladder this year if injuries abate. That's if...
Lions - Same as Suns. Not as bad as 17th.
Demons - They're my wildcard for 2016. I can see them getting 10 wins this year and causing some headaches through the year.
Saints - Don't think they'll change much in 2016. 6-8 wins only. Desperately need more midfield grunt. The only hole Carlisle will fill is the one at the end of their straw.
Bombers - Some good talent but spread too thin. No talented youth. Jobe looks shot. Another bottom 4 next year.
Blues - There was talk of the Saints being winless last year and this year. I'm struggling to see who the Blues can beat next year.....
cryptor
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So in a nut shell anyone who was good is going to drop off, anyone in the middle will stagnate, any young teams who've had significant improvement in the last couple years will dip significantly, and the poor sides will improve but no where near enough?
I dare say you'll actually be right for most of these but history suggests there will be a few sides who will each show unexpected and significant improvement and a couple who will fall off the edge. I can't see where we get significant improvement from in 2016 over our 2015 side except perhaps in a bit of luck with our H&A results. I don't expect we'll fall over the edge but 4 of our best players are also our oldest. It's 6 months until the season starts and the end can come pretty quickly for older players. A lot of our fortunes in 2016 rest on how well those 4 blokes can maintain their output.
Strapping Young Lad
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cryptor
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Not sold on this 'fourthorn' term.
I still recall all the trolling after 2012 with that Hawkward meme. I think it would be fitting that if we were to win the 4th in a row that we could flip it into Hawquad.
Interesting analysis.
I think you are harsh on Richmond. They seem top four material next season. They are terrible in knock out finals.
West coast will be better for the run, expect them to remain top two or thereabouts.
Cats, A+ trade period for mine. They are back big time with their ins. Their outs were shot.
Extremely harsh on the swans. Their outs were massive. Can cause strain to any team at the top.
Just some observations
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My biggest concern is the AFL banning us from 2020 onwards after we complete the 7-peat in 2019.
They pose 2 different conundrums.
If you look at the last 2 years both McEvoy and Hale found themselves on the outer, with Ceglar playing well, and it was actually McEvoy who was most at threat. There's no doubt that Ceglar put BB on his game and sharing the duties probably kept all 3 fresh.
This time I'm not sure with Pittonet and Fitzy whether they're good enough to either push the other 2 out of the side as Ceglar did or even play enough to provide a good rest.
Plus no doubts both Ceglar and BB are more suited to first ruck rather than forward/ ruck.
With Lake going the question is do we revert to the 2013 defensive structure of 1 big KPD in Frawley and Gibson playing on a bigger player and then either Stratton playing bigger with say Litherland taking his lock down on the small role or does perhaps Heatherly come in to play Gibson's role as Gibson plays Frawley/ Lake's and Stratton continues as he has.
Or do we stick to 2014/15 model and pair Spangher with Frawley (assuming the former can stay fit) or throw Brand into the mix and let him duke it out with Spang?
I can't see how we're not facing a downgrade in defensive performance.
As for the rucks, if either can take hold of the forward/ ruck role then we may even see an improvement.
Interested to see hear who you think out of Ceglar/ BB is the more likely to play as main ruck and which play more forward? Or do you think it may be more 50/50?
If BB plays more forward we lose some of the benefit of his elite endurance but whilst Ceglar can take a grab his goal kicking can be a little shonky.
It's stupefying to think that we potentially lost a shot at more flags by stubbornly refusing to recruit a big bodied defender. And then now, with two decent rivals having more than one monster forward, we let go the very guy who came in and illustrated that very point, by winning us the 2013 GF.
Sure, he was old, and maybe slowing. But just I don't get why they rolled the dice on that again. Frawley is awesome, but he was also required to play on someone even with Lake in the side. And when both Frawley and Lake were up and going, damn, we looked very strong down back.
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I thought the Magpies went alright for the first part of the year and ran out of gas. With more endurance and some nice recruits they could be good a lot quicker than some might expect. Still need someone to kick goals though
I totally agree, I was pumped at the idea of pairing Frawley with Lake as soon as we got the former.
I posted late in the season that the idea of offing a player like him before there has been any sign of decline is premature but Clarkson said in a conference that he was showing decline in the weekly conditioning tests that they do and the supporters don't see that, in the end it's hard to argue with anything the club does right now.
I am a believer in doing what your enemies least want you to do and I doubt any club, let alone Geelong, Collingwood, WCE were sitting their thinking 'oh no Hawthorn have got rid of Lake there's an area we can't exploit anymore'.
If Spangher was more physically reliable then I suppose it would make more sense and he could be relied upon to play second fiddle to Frawley but the thing that gets me is that Lake was more robust than both of those 2 plus Brand last year.
