Who is the best Key Defender of the 21st Century?

[doppleganger]

I've never said Rance couldn't play.

He's being compared amongst the best 3 backmen since the turn of the century.

His poor performance in a Preliminary Final against a C Grader surely has to come into consideration, right?

After all, you've spent the last two years waxing lyrical about finals performances defining players' careers...

As soon as Rance retired, Richmond won two premierships without him.

Finals performances define players. Scarlett and McGovern both part of memorable premiership winning moments in close GFs.

Rance's most memorable finals performance was being unable to stop Cox.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I've never said Rance couldn't play.

He's being compared amongst the best 3 backmen since the turn of the century.

His poor performance in a Preliminary Final against a C Grader surely has to come into consideration, right?

After all, you've spent the last two years waxing lyrical about finals performances defining players' careers...

Cox isn't any superstar but he is not a C Grader. He has form in at least one other final, notably with McGovern in that team.

Rance was beaten in the air that night, but the Richmond defensive system was clearly thrown into disarray. Even if it wasn't, it is one game. And sure, yes it counts. But one great or shocking game is absolute proof of nothing on its own.

Rance was overall a very strong finals performer, he has no worries on that score. Not Dusty strong, but he was up there at the very least with the other key contenders based on finals performance. Like McGovern, he was not a straight out stopper. These guys are classy footballers who win loads of contests and create high value turnovers.

We could search the annals and find big matches where any player lowered his colours, or was disappointing to some extent, even Dusty. It doesn't negate a whole body of work including a great finals record saying the contrary. Pendlebury in the 2018 finals for example had 4 matches with a highest rating of 12.1. This is way below Rance's rating in the match you keep bringing up. And Pendlebury was playing midfield.

 

[Fadge]

Cox isn't any superstar but he is not a C Grader. He has form in at least one other final, notably with McGovern in that team.

Rance was beaten in the air that night, but the Richmond defensive system was clearly thrown into disarray. Even if it wasn't, it is one game. And sure, yes it counts. But one great or shocking game is absolute proof of nothing on its own.

Rance was overall a very strong finals performer, he has no worries on that score. Not Dusty strong, but he was up there at the very least with the other key contenders based on finals performance. Like McGovern, he was not a straight out stopper. These guys are classy footballers who win loads of contests and create high value turnovers.

We could search the annals and find big matches where any player lowered his colours, or was disappointing to some extent, even Dusty. It doesn't negate a whole body of work including a great finals record saying the contrary. Pendlebury in the 2018 finals for example had 4 matches with a highest rating of 12.1. This is way below Rance's rating in the match you keep bringing up. And Pendlebury was playing midfield.

Player Ratings....

If Rance's rating in that game was above 12.1, that tells us everything we need to know about your much vaunted Player Ratings. They obviously don't take into consideration losing aerial contests.

What was Bobby Hill's Player Rating in the 2023 Grand Final again?

Surely Rance's performance in the 2018 Preliminary Final wasn't comparable to Hill's performance in the 2023 Grand Final according to Player Ratings? Surely not...

 

[Meteoric Rise]

As soon as Rance retired, Richmond won two premierships without him.

Finals performances define players. Scarlett and McGovern both part of memorable premiership winning moments in close GFs.

Rance's most memorable finals performance was being unable to stop Cox.

You might wish to have another look at the 2017 Grand Final if you can bear it.

To jog your memory, Rance got Smith medal votes, was voted 3rd BOG by both coaches, and finished a cool 10th in the Ayres Medal, no mean feat for a Full back. Rance's opponent that day was opposition captain Taylor Walker, who is no slouch. This was the biggest game Rance ever played in.

Rance I am pretty sure also possesses the highest average player rating in finals of any key defender since 2012 when the ratings commenced.

And when you say his most memorable performance was being unable to stop Cox. That was unable to stop Cox kicking 3 goals. We are not exactly talking Ron Todd levels here Dopple.

 

[Mr Meow]

Player Ratings....

If Rance's rating in that game was above 12.1, that tells us everything we need to know about your much vaunted Player Ratings. They obviously don't take into consideration losing aerial contests.

What was Bobby Hill's Player Rating in the 2023 Grand Final again?

Surely Rance's performance in the 2018 Preliminary Final wasn't comparable to Hill's performance in the 2023 Grand Final according to Player Ratings? Surely not...

Player Ratings(TM) are the gold standard! Look how many Norm Smith medalists aren't even in the top 5 ranked players on the ground.

Richmond's Matt Thomas (superstar) had two games in 2015. His average player rating that season trailed only Ablett, Dangerfield and Fyfe.

 

[Fadge]

You might wish to have another look at the 2017 Grand Final if you can bear it.

To jog your memory, Rance got Smith medal votes, was voted 3rd BOG by both coaches, and finished a cool 10th in the Ayres Medal, no mean feat for a Full back. Rance's opponent that day was opposition captain Taylor Walker, who is no slouch. This was the biggest game Rance ever played in.

Rance I am pretty sure also possesses the highest average player rating in finals of any key defender since 2012 when the ratings commenced.

And when you say his most memorable performance was being unable to stop Cox. That was unable to stop Cox kicking 3 goals. We are not exactly talking Ron Todd levels here Dopple.

Player Ratings.

Now I don't care enough about Player Rating to know where to find them, but can you please provide the following two data items:

1. Bobby Hill's Player Rating in the 2023 Grand Final - 4 goals in addition to constant forward pressure to keep his team's nose in front throughout the game. Norm Smith Medal (unanimous) and maximum Coaches votes.

2. Alex Rance's Player Rating in the 2018 Preliminary Final. Regularly and consistently outpointed in aerial contests by Mason Cox, who kicked 3 goals in the second quarter to separate the game.

If there is any credibility at all in the Player Ratings algorithm, these two games should be poles apart.

Go.

 

[Mr Meow]

You might wish to have another look at the 2017 Grand Final if you can bear it.

To jog your memory, Rance got Smith medal votes, was voted 3rd BOG by both coaches, and finished a cool 10th in the Ayres Medal, no mean feat for a Full back. Rance's opponent that day was opposition captain Taylor Walker, who is no slouch. This was the biggest game Rance ever played in.

Rance I am pretty sure also possesses the highest average player rating in finals of any key defender since 2012 when the ratings commenced.

And when you say his most memorable performance was being unable to stop Cox. That was unable to stop Cox kicking 3 goals. We are not exactly talking Ron Todd levels here Dopple.

These are the same player ratings that had Richard Douglas ahead of Lance Franklin and Will Minson ahead of Luke Hodge in 2013.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Player Ratings....

If Rance's rating in that game was above 12.1, that tells us everything we need to know about your much vaunted Player Ratings. They obviously don't take into consideration losing aerial contests.

What was Bobby Hill's Player Rating in the 2023 Grand Final again?

Surely Rance's performance in the 2018 Preliminary Final wasn't comparable to Hill's performance in the 2023 Grand Final according to Player Ratings? Surely not...

Your trouble is they are not my player ratings.

They are the only viable player ratings system available, and they are valuable in detecting fadge bullshit and turning it into actual facts based on the player's performances. For example they know when Bobby Hill has looked like a superstar to the casual observer but had only 4 contested possessions and 1 x 1%er in a match, and they know when Rance has looked like a fool to the casual observer but had 7 contested possessions and 6 x 1%ers in a match, and had 3 score involvements from Full Back.

I love how you keep questioning the player ratings validity every time they rate a Richmond player's performance higher than you did, or Geelong or Collingwood player's performance lower than you did. So transparent.

 

[Fadge]

Your trouble is they are not my player ratings.

They are the only viable player ratings system available, and they are valuable in detecting fadge bullshit and turning it into actual facts based on the player's performances. For example they know when Bobby Hill has looked like a superstar to the casual observer but had only 4 contested possessions and 1 x 1%er in a match, and they know when Rance has looked like a fool to the casual observer but had 7 contested possessions and 6 x 1%ers in a match, and had 3 score involvements from Full Back.

I love how you keep questioning the player ratings validity every time they rate a Richmond player's performance higher than you did, or Geelong or Collingwood player's performance lower than you did. So transparent.

Ah, now I get why you rate Player Ratings so highly.

They are purely stats based with no consideration of influence on the match.

So you really have attempted to justify the Player Ratings algorithm that calculated Alex Rance's performance in the 2018 Preliminary Final as an equivalent (better?) performance than Bobby Hill's 2023 Grand Final?

Wowee.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Player Ratings.

Now I don't care enough about Player Rating to know where to find them, but can you please provide the following two data items:

1. Bobby Hill's Player Rating in the 2023 Grand Final - 4 goals in addition to constant forward pressure to keep his team's nose in front throughout the game. Norm Smith Medal (unanimous) and maximum Coaches votes.

2. Alex Rance's Player Rating in the 2018 Preliminary Final. Regularly and consistently outpointed in aerial contests by Mason Cox, who kicked 3 goals in the second quarter to separate the game.

If there is any credibility at all in the Player Ratings algorithm, these two games should be poles apart.

Go.

Happily. Thank you.

The player ratings consider the whole performance of the player. Not just the bits Fadge wants them to consider.

Bobby Hill, for all his skill and merit in playing an excellent Grand Final, is not within a bull's roar of Alex Rance as a footballer. And when the player ratings observed and tallied everything they did in these matches, they recognised this.

Player ratings perfect? No, no system of voting or rating players can be perfect.

Legitimate? Of course.

And the bonus is it stops people like you bullshitting about who is better than who. Which is why you absolutely hate the player ratings. And why I love them.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Ah, now I get why you rate Player Ratings so highly.

They are purely stats based with no consideration of influence on the match.

So you really have attempted to justify the Player Ratings algorithm that calculated Alex Rance's performance in the 2018 Preliminary Final as an equivalent (better?) performance than Bobby Hill's 2023 Grand Final?

Wowee.

Lol, the two things are by no means mutually exclusive. The player ratings are the best method available of doing precisely this, tallying a player's influence on a match, objectively.

 

[doppleganger]

You might wish to have another look at the 2017 Grand Final if you can bear it.

To jog your memory, Rance got Smith medal votes, was voted 3rd BOG by both coaches, and finished a cool 10th in the Ayres Medal, no mean feat for a Full back. Rance's opponent that day was opposition captain Taylor Walker, who is no slouch. This was the biggest game Rance ever played in.

You love player ratings yeah?

Walker (his opponent) avg 6.7 for his other two finals.

He upped that to 13 when matched against Rance in the GF.

Rance I am pretty sure also possesses the highest average player rating in finals of any key defender since 2012 when the ratings commenced.

Yeah as he chalks up 20 disposals whilst giving away goals.

Your precious player ratings rated Rance' 2018 PF game better than all of his 2017 finals.

And when you say his most memorable performance was being unable to stop Cox. That was unable to stop Cox kicking 3 goals. We are not exactly talking Ron Todd levels here Dopple.

How many key forwards have taken 8 contested marks in a final before?

 

[Fadge]

Bobby Hill, for all his skill and merit in playing an excellent Grand Final, is not within a bull's roar of Alex Rance as a footballer. And when the player ratings observed and tallied everything they did in these matches, they recognised this.

Indeed.

Player Ratings - zero consideration of influence on the result of a football game, instead let's just capture every statistic in isolation to rate a player's performance.

What could possibly go wrong with that algorithm?

 

[Fadge]

Lol, the two things are by no means mutually exclusive. The player ratings are the best method available of doing precisely this, tallying a player's influence on a match, objectively.

Except they don't.

Come on, stop stalling.

Player Rating for Rance in the 2018 Prelim.

Player Rating for Hill in the 2023 Granny.

Go.

 

[Mr Meow]

You love player ratings yeah?

Walker (his opponent) avg 6.7 for his other two finals.

He upped that to 13 when matched against Rance in the GF.

Yeah as he chalks up 20 disposals whilst giving away goals.

Your precious player ratings rated Rance' 2018 PF game better than all of his 2017 finals.

How many key forwards have taken 8 contested marks in a final before?

The fact that 2018 performance was rated ahead of his actual good finals in 2017 says it all.

Hawkins went close in the 2011 grand final with 7 in a commanding performance, but at least was playing on an inhibited player. And that indeed turned the match like Cox did in 2018.

There is the small issue of the best key defender this century actually being able to defend and negate. Rance was an intercepting king, in some ways he reminds me of Stewart or Sicily but with extra size. His defensive ability wasn't always top notch. And he didn't have elite longevity the way some others did. His sides defensive group performed better once he left. He's marked down a bit on those criteria.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

You love player ratings yeah?

Walker (his opponent) avg 6.7 for his other two finals.

He upped that to 13 when matched against Rance in the GF.

Yeah as he chalks up 20 disposals whilst giving away goals.

Your precious player ratings rated Rance' 2018 PF game better than all of his 2017 finals.

How many key forwards have taken 8 contested marks in a final before?

Rance was a lot busier in the 2018 PF than those 2017 finals. Collingwood had 58 inside 50's and his key defence partner clearly should not have been playing. Rance was simply a lot less busy in the 2017 finals fielding an average of about 48 inside 50's.

I am confident of one thing about the ratings. They don't make them up. They just add them up. Rance would have been debited for any contests lost and credited for any contests won. They don't sit there laughing their heads off saying Mason Fukcing Cox just took a mark over Rance let's take 50 points off for that, that is hilarious.

It takes the Fadge out of judging player's performances. Because unlike Fadge, CD didn't neglect to notice the 7 contests Rance did win, or the 3 scores he launched, or the 6 x 1%ers, presumably spoils etc.

To the guy in the pub, Rance was a laughing stock that night. But CD are a bit more thorough than the guy in the pub.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Except they don't.

Come on, stop stalling.

Player Rating for Rance in the 2018 Prelim.

Player Rating for Hill in the 2023 Granny.

Go.

It speaks for itself Fadge. Ratings don't have fadgegasms every time a guy slots and uncontested goal. They actually work out who is doing which things that matter most to influence the game.

 

[Fadge]

It speaks for itself Fadge. Ratings don't have fadgegasms every time a guy slots and uncontested goal. They actually work out who is doing which things that matter most to influence the game.

And still you're refusing to share the Player Ratings.

Are you embarrassed?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

And the trouble you all have, it is not like I am relying on player ratings to advance Rance over Scarlett. Scarlett's ratings were only for one year, so we didn't worry about them, but you can bet your bottom dollar Rance would have led Scarlett in player ratings.

Rance beats him for all of the following:

• Disposals per match
• Contested possessions per match(by about 60%)
• Tackles(by about 60%)
• Contested Marks
• 1%ers by over 100%
• Brownlow votes per match
• Coaches votes per match(by loads)

And even AA selections per years played and prime years played, which considering Rance played for Richmond and Scarlett played for Geelong, tells you all you would ever need to know.

So it is not like Rance's player ratings are some massive outlier. You would be worried if they weren't telling you he was right up there with the best key defenders of this century at the very least. Because if Scarlett is meant to be the best, Rance is miles better than him however you wish to measure it. Naturally Scarlett is a myth and he is nowhere near the best key defenders this century. So rance does have some real competition from other quarters, most notably McGovern.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

And still you're refusing to share the Player Ratings.

Are you embarrassed?

What are you on about?

I have acknowledged Rance's player rating for the 2018 PF was better than Hill's for the 2023 GF. At least catch me out avoiding the issue before you start doing victory laps celebrating catching me out avoiding the issue.

 

[Fadge]

What are you on about?

I have acknowledged Rance's player rating for the 2018 PF was better than Hill's for the 2023 GF. At least catch me out avoiding the issue before you start doing victory laps celebrating catching me out avoiding the issue.

That's the first time you've stated that.

But you've neglected to share the actual ratings.

What were they?

 

[Forward Press]

Yay, I love unrelated threads being ruined by yet another Richmond vs Collingwood shitfight.

 

[Mr Meow]

Rance was a lot busier in the 2018 PF than those 2017 finals. Collingwood had 58 inside 50's and his key defence partner clearly should not have been playing. Rance was simply a lot less busy in the 2017 finals fielding an average of about 48 inside 50's.

I am confident of one thing about the ratings. They don't make them up. They just add them up. Rance would have been debited for any contests lost and credited for any contests won. They don't sit there laughing their heads off saying Mason Fukcing Cox just took a mark over Rance let's take 50 points off for that, that is hilarious.

It takes the Fadge out of judging player's performances. Because unlike Fadge, CD didn't neglect to notice the 7 contests Rance did win, or the 3 scores he launched, or the 6 x 1%ers, presumably spoils etc.

To the guy in the pub, Rance was a laughing stock that night. But CD are a bit more thorough than the guy in the pub.

Player Ratings that had Kieran Briggs, LDU and Rowell ahead of Curnow, Greene and Walker in 2023.

Trey Ruscoe's single game was rated above Sicily's average game in 2023.

Dixon was the highest rated forward of 2022. McEvoy ahead of Jeremy Cameron the same season.

Sam Isles and Mitch Clark well ahead of Jack Riewoldt in 2012.

Armitage ahead of Sam Mitchell in 2015.

West Coast's Josh Kennedy in 2015 was behind Hartlett, Dahlaus and Jonathan Giles.

These findings all come from your Bible.

 

[Fadge]

It speaks for itself Fadge. Ratings don't have fadgegasms every time a guy slots and uncontested goal. They actually work out who is doing which things that matter most to influence the game.

So Rance had more influence for Richmond on the result of the 2018 Preliminary Final than Hill had for Collingwood on the result of the 2023 Grand Final?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

There is a reason you guys are trying to obfuscate the real argument by turning it into a player ratings debate.

That reason is because you have all foolishly fallen for the myth that Scarlett is somehow the best key defender this century. We don't even need player ratings to completely disprove that theory. Take your pick out of disposals, Brownlow votes, Coaches Votes, contested possessions, contested marks, 1%ers, tackles.

I will happily put them up against the Fadge eye test any day.