Who is the best Key Defender of the 21st Century?

[Mr Meow]

At his peak he was definitely an elite mid/forward. In 2010 he averaged 1.8 goals a game and 31.5 disposals a game. He had other big years too and they all kind of wash over in my mind, I had to actually look up the stat pages to see.

2010 Ablett did spend more time up forward in a role similar to Martin 2019 onwards, hence the higher goal tally. The other seasons 2007-2018 I would still class him as a pure midfielder though, unlike Martin and Dangerfield who would genuinely sit forward.

As a midfielder Ablett had 30+ disposals and 3 plus goals on 21 occassions. Matthews did it 32 times but was more of a mid/forward - we will never see the likes of Matthews feats again. It would be impressive to see a modern day midfielder match Ablett's feats. Martin managed it 4 times and you'd think he'd be one of the top contenders, plus spent more time up forward.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

One simple example, from the most recent game played.

Runner-up in the Norm Smith Medal, K. Coleman, from memory was ranked 16th by Player Ratings?

Player Ratings are

You will probably get other similarly lazy populist thinkers agreeing with you Fadge.

But convincing me will require you to watch every single action Coleman took in the game, list them all, and tell me why you think for example this amounts to more value than every single action Jordan DeGoey took in the game, after you list all his.

Because that is essentially what CD are doing. It is hilarious you think you know better by watching a game once nd having a fadgegasm every time a player gets a few easy balls and executes some good kicks under no pressure.

 

[Mr Meow]

You will probably get other similarly lazy populist thinkers agreeing with you Fadge.

But convincing me will require you to watch every single action Coleman took in the game, list them all, and tell me why you think for example this amounts to more value than every single action Jordan DeGoey took in the game, after you list all his.

Because that is essentially what CD are doing. It is hilarious you think you know better by watching a game once nd having a fadgegasm every time a player gets a few easy balls and executes some good kicks under no pressure.

You haven't replied to my many findings from the player ratings and my research into Rance's various weaknesses and poor games. The defensive % loss analysis in particular is a doozy.

You told me to remind you if you'd skipped over any posts, so here you are.

 

[Fadge]

But convincing me...

I'm not trying to convince you.

I'm stating facts.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Rance had gastro...

Rance was chopping out for Astbury...

It wasn't Rance, it was an imposter who looked like him and was wearing his jumper...

Let’s say Rance was on Cox from minute 1 to minute 120. Cox kicked 3-goals in in a half of footy as dominant as any you’d ever see, where the Pies led 62-9 or something silly.

Riewoldt kicked 5-goals on Phil Davis in a Grand Final …. Are you also naive enough to suggest it defines Phil Davis or defines Jack Riewoldt when GWS got obliterated?

Scarlett was an excellent defender. He made 6 x AA, with 5 of them coming when Geelong were good enough to make a PF or better - a PF in 2004, 3 x flag years and 2008 where they lost one game. It was probably one of the easier gigs in town defending for Geelong when they dominated the midfield.

Rance made 5 x AA, one in a flag year, one a PF, one a 13th placed finish and two in EF loss years. A far less dominant period where he was under siege far more regularly.

Probably explains Rance’s higher rate of possessions, 1%ers, contested possessions and contested marks, as the ball was coming down a lot more than Scarlett had to deal with.

Rance defended multiple players, Scarlett was more ‘back shoulder, 1v1’.

Rance is a pretty dislikeable character (plus he plays for Richmond) so it doesn’t surprise me when people aren’t aware of their careers in much detail they’d choose the more humble and likeable Scarlett.

It’s a coin toss for me anyway.



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[STPer18]

humble and likeable Scarlett.

Are you being facetious?

 

[Mr Meow]

Are you being facetious?

I thought it was just straight sarcasm.

 

[Fadge]

Are you being facetious?

I thought it was just straight sarcasm.

Standard Richmond Victim Complex.

 

[Noidnadroj]

Player Ratings.

Now I don't care enough about Player Rating to know where to find them, but can you please provide the following two data items:

1. Bobby Hill's Player Rating in the 2023 Grand Final - 4 goals in addition to constant forward pressure to keep his team's nose in front throughout the game. Norm Smith Medal (unanimous) and maximum Coaches votes.

2. Alex Rance's Player Rating in the 2018 Preliminary Final. Regularly and consistently outpointed in aerial contests by Mason Cox, who kicked 3 goals in the second quarter to separate the game.

If there is any credibility at all in the Player Ratings algorithm, these two games should be poles apart.

Go.

There are pro’s and con’s from any ratings systems, and certainly highlighting single games can produce anomalies … JHF got 3 x Brownlow votes in a very poor game he played against the Cats this year for example. Doesn’t mean we just throw away Brownlow votes entirely.

Player Ratings look at the impact of every contest - positive and negative - for your team. It greatly rewards winning contests to the benefit of your team. I don’t think it rewards very highly ‘being on the end’ of good play from up the field.

2 of Hill’s 4 x goals were simple ‘Joe the goose’ over the top passes. When looking at his highlights he also missed multiple passes inside-50 and turned it over a few times. Only 4 of his 18 touches were contested and he went at 72%

In the 2018 PF Rance had 20 touches with 7 contested and went at a very high 85% DE. Believe me I’m not watching the game back, but perhaps Richmond lose by 90-points and not 6-goals if he doesn’t play…??

I think what the ratings taken into account is that any player could’ve been on the end of those passes for two of the goals - it doesn’t greatly reward uncontested possessions. Any maybe a few of his turnovers and poor disposals resulted in Brisbane goals … I don’t know as believe me, I’m not watching the 2023 GF again either.

But for our ‘naked eye’ watching we see the 4 x goals and goal assist and in a close game he is awarded BOG - I had him BOG also. But if the reality is that 3-4 of his turnovers or lost contests DID result in Lion goals, which nobody knows in real time and without a replay, then maybe that’s why his game didn’t score as highly as expected.

We can only rate the things we see… player ratings rate the actual impact of things we often don’t see or wouldn’t even realise had happened.

When the player ratings in order for 2023 are:

Bont
Libba
Butters
Petracca
English
Anderson
Oliver
Sinclair
Merrett
Gulden
Tom Green
Naicos

And in 2022 was:

Oliver
Bont
Miller
Neale
Cripps
Petracca
Merrett
Crisp
Libba
Laird
English

Etc…..

Then I think they’re reflecting pretty well the better performers in the game.

Of course there are anomalies that don’t seem
to make sense as with any award or points system - but I’m more inclined to trust the player ratings that have been developed by analysing what wins and loses games of football, than biased opinion of supporters who can only process what their eye sees and wouldn’t know if a players turnovers resulted in opposition goals or not.


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[Jeremias]

Scarlett. And it's not even close IMO.

Rance was very good but I have a clear gap between the two.

Referencing certain statistics to try and downplay Scarlett's career is nothing short of embarrassing.
Disposals, contested possessions, tackles...please. Absolutely laughable.

 

[Caligo]

2010 Ablett did spend more time up forward in a role similar to Martin 2019 onwards, hence the higher goal tally. The other seasons 2007-2018 I would still class him as a pure midfielder though, unlike Martin and Dangerfield who would genuinely sit forward.

As a midfielder Ablett had 30+ disposals and 3 plus goals on 21 occassions. Matthews did it 32 times but was more of a mid/forward - we will never see the likes of Matthews feats again. It would be impressive to see a modern day midfielder match Ablett's feats. Martin managed it 4 times and you'd think he'd be one of the top contenders, plus spent more time up forward.

And that is why Lethal is the goat. Hilarious anyone even tries to debate it.

 

[Caligo]

One simple example, from the most recent game played.

Runner-up in the Norm Smith Medal, K. Coleman, from memory was ranked 16th by Player Ratings?

Player Ratings are

Player ratings are hilariously bad.

Should be utterly ignored.

 

[doppleganger]

Player ratings aren't bound by outdated notions like you are going on about. They just look at what the player actually does in the entirety of the match.

How busy they were.

Rance 2018 PF 20 disposals 7 contested possessions rated higher than Bobby Hill's 18 disposal 4 contested possession 2023 GF.

Who the **** cares how many disposals your full back or forward pocket get?

It is all about scoreboard impact for the forward, and if the defender was able to beat their opponent.

Man in the pub says Bobby Hill had a blinder and was BOG. Even the coaches agreed on this occasion. Player ratings say deGoey and Crisp played way better than Bobby Hill and whilst I can't bring myself to re-watch the fiasco, from my one viewing, that makes perfect sense to me.

Man in the pub sees Bobby Hill have 6 shots on goal and give a gimme to Pendles.

Man in the pub sees Alex Rance trail M.Cox all over the field and continually be outmarked.

But as Rance was busier, he gets a greater "player rating".

Why again would anybody judge worth of a key defender based on how many disposals they get...how "busy" they were?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

How busy they were.

Who the * cares how many disposals your full back or forward pocket get?

It is all about scoreboard impact for the forward, and if the defender was able to beat their opponent.

Man in the pub sees Bobby Hill have 6 shots on goal and give a gimme to Pendles.

Man in the pub sees Alex Rance trail M.Cox all over the field and continually be outmarked.

But as Rance was busier, he gets a greater "player rating".

Why again would anybody judge worth of a key defender based on how many disposals they get...how "busy" they were?

Lol yes, backmen should just drop the ball and start trying to defend each time they take possession.

This might explain it to you a little bit better than I every could:



Sorry to do that to you dopple.

 

[Cursed Cat]

Scarlett. And it's not even close IMO.

Rance was very good but I have a clear gap between the two.

Referencing certain statistics to try and downplay Scarlett's career is nothing short of embarrassing.
Disposals, contested possessions, tackles...please. Absolutely laughable.

And yet I don't reckon raw statistics even tell the whole story with Scarlett.

By the time Geelong won their breakthrough Flag in 2007 Scarlett had probably already peaked - his form when Geelong were a mediocre side was exemplary.

He could easily have a Norm Smith to his name too.

I rate Scarlett above Ablett jr, Bartel, Johnson - he was the bloke who finally stopped the rot after decades of sub-par Geelong key defenders. The Cats had a good (but oft-injured) one in Gary Malarkey in the 80s, then Stephen O'Reilly briefly in the 90s. Ben Graham was ok. Apart from that it was a bit of a horror show.

But after taking a little time to find his feet, Scarlett not only established himself as the best key defender of his generation, he re-defined what a key defender could do - I'd argue no key defender has attained his level of mastery before or since.

Regularly racked up 20+ disposals while completely demoralising his often highly-rated opponents.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Scarlett. And it's not even close IMO.

Rance was very good but I have a clear gap between the two.

Referencing certain statistics to try and downplay Scarlett's career is nothing short of embarrassing.
Disposals, contested possessions, tackles...please. Absolutely laughable.

Dismissing actual performance measures when comparing players is not embarrassing of course.

When this clown opposes me I now KNOW I am on the right track.

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Rance easily

 

[Aristotle Pickett]

Scarlett. And it's not even close IMO.

Rance was very good but I have a clear gap between the two.

Referencing certain statistics to try and downplay Scarlett's career is nothing short of embarrassing.
Disposals, contested possessions, tackles...please. Absolutely laughable.

'A clear gap' ? You've got to be joking. Rance revolutionised the game by guarding multiple players at once.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Let’s say Rance was on Cox from minute 1 to minute 120. Cox kicked 3-goals in in a half of footy as dominant as any you’d ever see, where the Pies led 62-9 or something silly.

Riewoldt kicked 5-goals on Phil Davis in a Grand Final …. Are you also naive enough to suggest it defines Phil Davis or defines Jack Riewoldt when GWS got obliterated?

Scarlett was an excellent defender. He made 6 x AA, with 5 of them coming when Geelong were good enough to make a PF or better - a PF in 2004, 3 x flag years and 2008 where they lost one game. It was probably one of the easier gigs in town defending for Geelong when they dominated the midfield.

Rance made 5 x AA, one in a flag year, one a PF, one a 13th placed finish and two in EF loss years. A far less dominant period where he was under siege far more regularly.

Probably explains Rance’s higher rate of possessions, 1%ers, contested possessions and contested marks, as the ball was coming down a lot more than Scarlett had to deal with.

Rance defended multiple players, Scarlett was more ‘back shoulder, 1v1’.

Rance is a pretty dislikeable character (plus he plays for Richmond) so it doesn’t surprise me when people aren’t aware of their careers in much detail they’d choose the more humble and likeable Scarlett.

It’s a coin toss for me anyway.



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It took a Richmond supporter to actually raise some interesting points here in possible favour of Scarlett.

Were Rance and McGovern's contested possessions only 50-60% higher than Scarlett's due to Geelong conceding a lot less inside 50's than the average team.

Well from 2007 onwards inside 50's are available. When you look through the seasons individually, Geelong were conceding around 5% less inside 50's than AFL median in most seasons. So this doesn't seem to be the answer. And in 2010 when Geelong the 4th most inside 50's in the AFL did Scarlett's contested possessions or total disposals rise?

Total disposals 17.6 is a bit above his average in prime years of around 16. But what about contested possessions? 4.2 is still around his career average. Still an absolute mile below McGovern and Rance's career contested possession average.

So what about when the Cats play v better opposition in finals, does the Scarlett Pimpernel get more contested possession?

Well that moves the needle slightly to 4.5 contested possessions per game for the arch receiver Scarlo. Still an absolute mile below Rance and McGovern. Their finals contested sherrin averages were 6.8 and 7.2 respectively.

Rance and McGovern are simply able to win more contests. They are just better athletes, better players. McGovern is by miles the best of them in the air, followed by Rance then Scarlett a bit behind Rance. Rance was by miles the best ground ball contest winner, followed by McGovern and then Scarlett. Scarlett probably the best ball user with McGovern not far behind him and Rance a fair bit behind both.

But you are talking about different levels of player here. Scarlett in 2023 would rank around 40th amongst key defenders for contested possession. Rance and McGovern would be in the top few, and that isn't their best season, that is their career average. Of the 2023 group of key defenders only Sicily and Taylor are anywhere near either Rance or McGovern for career average contested possessions. Laughably but predictably, they have 1 AA selection each. Scarlett may have been a trailblazer or something but there are loads of Scarletts around now, mostly better.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

And yet I don't reckon raw statistics even tell the whole story with Scarlett.

By the time Geelong won their breakthrough Flag in 2007 Scarlett had probably already peaked - his form when Geelong were a mediocre side was exemplary.

He could easily have a Norm Smith to his name too.

I rate Scarlett above Ablett jr, Bartel, Johnson - he was the bloke who finally stopped the rot after decades of sub-par Geelong key defenders. The Cats had a good (but oft-injured) one in Gary Malarkey in the 80s, then Stephen O'Reilly briefly in the 90s. Ben Graham was ok. Apart from that it was a bit of a horror show.

But after taking a little time to find his feet, Scarlett not only established himself as the best key defender of his generation, he re-defined what a key defender could do - I'd argue no key defender has attained his level of mastery before or since.

Regularly racked up 20+ disposals while completely demoralising his often highly-rated opponents.

If they had handed Scarlett a Norm Smith for his 22 uncontested possession wide receiver master class in the 2007 decider you would ****ing spew. It was like getting Smith Medal votes for circle work.

If Scarlett regularly racked up 20+ possessions, why does Rance averaging 17 disposals average more than Scarlett, and about 60% ore contested possessions? How demoralised must Rance's opponents have been?

No disrespect because I do believe Scarlett was a really good player overall, but if we think he is the best on offer amongst key defender this century we are dead set kidding ourselves.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

One extra disposal per game for an interceptor vs a 1v1 full back counting as "comfortably" more says it all for your analytic skills.

For starters, using statistics to compare full backs from complete different eras of game style is stupid and pointless to begin with. The game style trends had changed so much and defenders began to have a much more aggressive slingshot role and intercepting role in modern day football, where as for a large majority of Scarlett’s career it was about defend spoil and restrict your opponent. Scarlett was in many ways one of the first innovative key defenders to start slingshotting and attacking from the back half, he was ahead of his time in many ways.

For a full back to get 29 touches in a grand final was something unheard of

 

[Meteoric Rise]

For starters, using statistics to compare full backs from complete different eras of game style is stupid and pointless to begin with. The game style trends had changed so much and defenders began to have a much more aggressive slingshot role and intercepting role in modern day football, where as for a large majority of Scarlett’s career it was about defend spoil and restrict your opponent. Scarlett was in many ways one of the first innovative key defenders to start slingshotting and attacking from the back half, he was ahead of his time in many ways.

For a full back to get 29 touches in a grand final was something unheard of

For a full back to get 22 uncontested possessions in a Grand Final was certainly unheard of.

Game trends might change but if players come along and do what you did better than you then they are better players, simple as that.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

One extra disposal per game for an interceptor vs a 1v1 full back counting as "comfortably" more says it all for your analytic skills.

If it was 1 extra disposal per game and that was it I wouldn't be here making the argument.

It was 60% more contested possessions, over 100% ore 1%ers, 20% more contested marks, over 100% more spoils, about 30+% more coaches votes and on it goes.

The only thing Scarlett could do better than Rance was use the football better. Not a small thing in football that but he wasn't a so much better ball user to make up for the massive deficit in all these other areas. Scarlett was an excellent footballer. Rance was an excellent athlete and an excellent footballer.

 

[Elmer_Hauser]

Matt Scarlett and its not even particularly close either.

 

[geelong_crazy26]

For a full back to get 22 uncontested possessions in a Grand Final was certainly unheard of.

Game trends might change but if players come along and do what you did better than you then they are better players, simple as that.

Since you are using possession metrics and dismissing game styles as impacting them across different eras, then you are obviously incredibly clueless.

The people have spoken, as usual you can’t handle it and have a Meltdown.