Who is the best Key Defender of the 21st Century?

[Fadge]

Yay, I love unrelated threads being ruined by yet another Richmond vs Collingwood shitfight.

So rating of Rance is irrelevant to the thread?

 

[Mr Meow]

There is a reason you guys are trying to obfuscate the real argument by turning it into a player ratings debate.

That reason is because you have all foolishly fallen for the myth that Scarlett is somehow the best key defender this century. We don't even need player ratings to completely disprove that theory. Take your pick out of disposals, Brownlow votes, Coaches Votes, contested possessions, contested marks, 1%ers, tackles.

I will happily put them up against the Fadge eye test any day.

3 times as many votes for Scarlett.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

That's the first time you've stated that.

But you've neglected to share the actual ratings.

What were they?

Mate, I am not your stats slave. You look them up and post them.

Then if you want to call them into question, go back and watch every minute of both matches and every action both player undertakes. And then list all those actions and tell us why you think CD are wrong.

Otherwise stfu about it on this thread as it is not even relevant to the thread question of separating the 4 players listed.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

I just looked at the voting in the poll LOL.

Leaving Rance out of it because I am a Richmond supporter and can be accused of bias.

Scarlett has roughly 8x more votes than McGovern. That is utterly laughable and just goes to show how easily most people can be fooled by just slavishly watching games and listening to commentators without studying what is actually happening. Scarlett has 8 times the votes and yet McGovern is a demonstrably better player or at the very worst Scarlett's equal depending on which elements of the game you rate higher.

 

[Dr Tigris]

I used the number of AA's to decide who made the cut so I thought it was fair to include that information but you are right that it could affect the vote somewhat.

I wish I could do this with small forwards but small forwards don't tend to get many AA's as most of the time they miss out and a midfielder gets in the "small forward" position. Betts, Milne, Cameron, Papley, none of them made the cut of 4 All Australians.

Tells you a lot about AA selection.

I'd take any of those 4 over the resting mids any day. Especially Eddie - brilliant player.

 

[Fadge]

There is a reason you guys are trying to obfuscate the real argument by turning it into a player ratings debate.

That reason is because you have all foolishly fallen for the myth that Scarlett is somehow the best key defender this century. We don't even need player ratings to completely disprove that theory. Take your pick out of disposals, Brownlow votes, Coaches Votes, contested possessions, contested marks, 1%ers, tackles.

I will happily put them up against the Fadge eye test any day.

So 'ability to defend' isn't a consideration of yours when determining who the best defender of the 21st century is?

Because that is absolutely a criteria that relies on the eye test, and one that Rance falls well short in.

 

[Mr Meow]

So rating of Rance is irrelevant to the thread?

In the 2013 EF the Rance-lead defence let Waite and Duigan (yes really) kick 4 goals each in a tight final. It's okay because he collected 20 disposals though.

Port put 132 on the board in his next final.

In the 2015 EF Waite strikes again, this time as a Roo, with another 4 goals in a close final (5 marks inside 50 and 2 contested marks; no contested marks for Rance). Brown and Petrie two apiece. What exactly was Rance marshalling? North put 100+ on the board.

2017 he was excellent through the finals series.

2018 he had a quiet QF where his team romped it in but Roughead still managed 3 goals and 2 contested marks (no contested marks for Rance). So a minor fail. Then a hugely embarrassing fail in the prelim.

And that's it because the bloke retired after 200 games and Richmond's defence performed better subsequently.

It's not quite the stellar finals catalogue MR is making it out to be.

 

[Fadge]

Mate, I am not your stats slave. You look them up and post them.

Then if you want to call them into question, go back and watch every minute of both matches and every action both player undertakes. And then list all those actions and tell us why you think CD are wrong.

Otherwise stfu about it on this thread as it is not even relevant to the thread question of separating the 4 players listed.

I don't need to watch every minute of both matches again to conclude that Hill's performance in the 2023 Grand Final was in a different stratosphere in terms of influence on the match in comparison to Rance's influence for Richmond in the 2018 Preliminary Final.

A logical person would see this and conclude 'hmmmm, maybe I shouldn't place as much weighting as I do on Player Ratings, as the algorithm is clearly flawed'.

 

[STPer18]

I just looked at the voting in the poll LOL.

Nah, you've been monitoring it closely since the start. No way you'd be going full statistician on us otherwise.

Maybe Rancey will get up if we try a 'best flopping and staging key defender of the 21st century'.

 

[doppleganger]

Rance was a lot busier in the 2018 PF than those 2017 finals. Collingwood had 58 inside 50's and his key defence partner clearly should not have been playing. Rance was simply a lot less busy in the 2017 finals fielding an average of about 48 inside 50's.

Pity he wasnt busy putting any pressure on.

Rance and Astbury were the two Tiggers who had least pressure acts of any Tigers.

But yes, he got plenty of sideways chip kicks had 20 disposals, so was busy.

I am confident of one thing about the ratings. They don't make them up. They just add them up.

Yep, they dont talk to influence they just tally up all descriptive stats.

Rance would have been debited for any contests lost and credited for any contests won. They don't sit there laughing their heads off saying Mason Fukcing Cox just took a mark over Rance let's take 50 points off for that, that is hilarious.

Like most watching the game, they would have been laughing their heads off at Rance's inability to defend an average forward.

It takes the Fadge out of judging player's performances. Because unlike Fadge, CD didn't neglect to notice the 7 contests Rance did win, or the 3 scores he launched, or the 6 x 1%ers, presumably spoils etc.
To the guy in the pub, Rance was a laughing stock that night. But CD are a bit more thorough than the guy in the pub.

Yeah the player ratings has Rance higher than the 2023 Norm Smith medalist.

Player Ratings dont equal influence, they talk to how "busy" a player is.

Rance was busy in the 2018 PF, (hence his high AFL player rating), but failed in his main objective to defend his opponent.

When picking a defender, if they cant stop an opponent who cares how many disposals they avg?

 

[Meteoric Rise]

So 'ability to defend' isn't a consideration of yours when determining who the best defender of the 21st century is?

Because that is absolutely a criteria that relies on the eye test, and one that Rance falls well short in.

How is Rance falling well short on ability to defend exactly?

He wasn't the best 1 v 1 key defender if that is what you mean, but he was no slouch, losing 21% of his 1 v 1 contests in the years the stat was recorded.

So he is maybe losing just under 1 X 1 v 1 defensive contest per match played. The best in each year are maybe losing 0.6 defensive contests per match and maybe 0.8 over their career. Rance throws in big contest win, spoil and tackle and presumably ground ball get, intercept numbers compared in combination compared to other key defenders. That is why players like Scarlett don't hold a candle to him.

 

[Fadge]

That is why players like Scarlett don't hold a candle to him.

According to you, a view that is clearly in the minority.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Pity he wasnt busy putting any pressure on.

Rance and Astbury were the two Tiggers who had least pressure acts of any Tigers.

But yes, he got plenty of sideways chip kicks had 20 disposals, so was busy.

Yep, they dont talk to influence they just tally up all descriptive stats.

Like most watching the game, they would have been laughing their heads off at Rance's inability to defend an average forward.

Yeah the player ratings has Rance higher than the 2023 Norm Smith medalist.

Player Ratings dont equal influence, they talk to how "busy" a player is.

Rance was busy in the 2018 PF, (hence his high AFL player rating), but failed in his main objective to defend his opponent.

When picking a defender, if they cant stop an opponent who cares how many disposals they avg?

Player ratings aren't bound by outdated notions like you are going on about. They just look at what the player actually does in the entirety of the match.

Rance 2018 PF 20 disposals 7 contested possessions rated higher than Bobby Hill's 18 disposal 4 contested possession 2023 GF.

Man in the pub says Bobby Hill had a blinder and was BOG. Even the coaches agreed on this occasion. Player ratings say deGoey and Crisp played way better than Bobby Hill and whilst I can't bring myself to re-watch the fiasco, from my one viewing, that makes perfect sense to me.

 

[Caligo]

The mid/forward discussion would be a very interesting one.

Johnson
Dangerfield
Chapman
Greene
Akermanis
R. Gray
Brad Johnson
De Goey

And I guess you'd have to throw Martin in there to make up the numbers.

Gaj in a canter

 

[Mr Meow]

How is Rance falling well short on ability to defend exactly?

He wasn't the best 1 v 1 key defender if that is what you mean, but he was no slouch, losing 21% of his 1 v 1 contests in the years the stat was recorded.

So he is maybe losing just under 1 X 1 v 1 defensive contest per match played. The best in each year are maybe losing 0.6 defensive contests per match and maybe 0.8 over their career. Rance throws in big contest win, spoil and tackle and presumably ground ball get, intercept numbers compared in combination compared to other key defenders. That is why players like Scarlett don't hold a candle to him.

So worse than Aidan Corr of North Melbourne in 2023.

Grimes easily beat that this year in a season where Richmond fans were calling for his head.

McGovern in 2017 had a 7.5% defensive loss rate. Harry Taylor 8.8% the same year as a 31 year old (2 years past Rance's retirement age). That is what elite looks like, even as an intercepting defender. Scarlett was better 1v1 than these two.

Rance, still in his prime as a 29 year old, had a whopping 25% defensive loss rate in 2018. Scarlett had a huge decline in his last season, as a 33 year old, to have a defensive loss rate in the mid to late 20s. Hence why he retired; his level before that was league leading but you'd need to have actually watched the matches to know that as the stats weren't available.

Rance certainly didn't earn those AA jumpers based on his 1v1 defensive ability.

 

[Fadge]

Gaj in a canter

Good point.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

According to you, a view that is clearly in the minority.

I could not be happier if I was a minority of 1 v 7 billion other people on the planet when it comes to the Matthew Scarlett myth. Good player but rating him the best key defender this century is absolutely laughable. There are players clearly with way better claims.

And I can't see any coherent argument put for why Scarlett is better than Rance or McGovern.

 

[Fadge]

Man in the pub says Bobby Hill had a blinder and was BOG. Even the coaches agreed on this occasion.

Man in the pub.

Both coaches.

Every Norm Smith Medal voter.

But not Player Ratings, who had him 13th best...

And therefore not Meteoric Rise

 

[Caligo]

Good point.

If you ban gaj though for whatever reason (say because he already won the midfield award) then it gets VERY interesting.

Dusty is probably my pick, so many great choices though. Stevie J was an absolute menace, terrified me every time. So hard to go past aker, and in the current game Toby is well ahead of anybody else in the league at that position. The best at my club was probably Burgoyne, but he was more of a utility than a mid/forward, and is probably a bit behind the other names listed.

 

[Fadge]

If you ban gaj though for whatever reason (say because he already won the midfield award) then it gets VERY interesting.

Dusty is probably my pick, so many great choices though. Stevie J was an absolute menace, terrified me every time. So hard to go past aker, and in the current game Toby is well ahead of anybody else in the league at that position. The best at my club was probably Burgoyne, but he was more of a utility than a mid/forward, and is probably a bit behind the other names listed.

I hadn't considered GAJ as I don't recall him being a true mid/forward at the same time, in the way they other players were.

He started as a small forward, spent his prime decade as a midfielder, and finished as a small forward.

 

[Caligo]

I hadn't considered GAJ as I don't recall him being a true mid/forward at the same time, in the way they other players were.

He started as a small forward, spent his prime decade as a midfielder, and finished as a small forward.

At his peak he was definitely an elite mid/forward. In 2010 he averaged 1.8 goals a game and 31.5 disposals a game. He had other big years too and they all kind of wash over in my mind, I had to actually look up the stat pages to see.

 

[Carbine Chaos]

Not sure if he's been mentioned yet but I'd say Dustin Fletcher

Dustin Fletcher

Age

49

Ht

198cm

Wt

92kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

16.0

4star

K

12.3

5star

HB

3.7

3star

M

4.7

4star

T

1.2

3star

MG

301.6

4star

No current season stats available

D

14.2

4star

K

11.4

4star

HB

2.8

3star

M

4.8

5star

T

1.4

4star

would be right up there, surprised he's not in the poll at least.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Man in the pub.

Both coaches.

Every Norm Smith Medal voter.

But not Player Ratings, who had him 13th best...

And therefore not Meteoric Rise

If the player ratings under-rated Hill's 2023 GF, as is entirely possible, this does almost nothing to call into question their validity.

If you have ever spoken to a man in a pub about football, you will know they are wrong about everything as a default position. I would even back you over this source of footballing wisdom Fadge.

The coaches made an absolute howler when they gave Houli BOG over Martin in the 2017 GF. They would have done that without ever re-watching the game. If you watch the game again, it is inconceivable that 6 contested possession Houli was better than 22 contested possession + major scoreboard damage Martin. They simply got it wrong but this does not mean Coaches votes are not credible.

We've seen head-scratching Brownlow votes in matches like JHF last year in one especially baron game scoring the 3 votes for BOG. But this does not mean the Brownlow has no credibility.

No one source is always right, none is always wrong.

 

[Meteoric Rise]

Not sure if he's been mentioned yet but I'd say Dustin Fletcher would be right up there, surprised he's not in the poll at least.

Insufficient longevity.

 

[Fadge]

If the player ratings under-rated Hill's 2023 GF, as is entirely possible, this does almost nothing to call into question their validity.

One simple example, from the most recent game played.

Runner-up in the Norm Smith Medal, K. Coleman, from memory was ranked 16th by Player Ratings?

Player Ratings are