Banter Who will be better in 2024? Carlton or Collingwood? Part 2

[Robertio]

Well he has got one more premiership medallion than every player on Carlton's list has in total, and he has kicked as many goals in a single finals game than Charlie has in his entire finals career (on multiple occasions).

Pity there are no other Collingwood supporters left in here we are getting the same old thing over and over.

 

[carlton_99]

Carlton are genuinely embarrassing. They walk around with their chests out and inflated heads when this list has achieved nothing. Absolutely nothing. Then their supporter base sit there and tee off on players who have won Premierships. Bob Chitty would turn in his grave at what Carlton have become.

Please point to where I have "teed off" at your players.

 

[Robertio]

Carlton are genuinely embarrassing. They walk around with their chests out and inflated heads when this list has achieved nothing. Absolutely nothing. Then their supporter base sit there and tee off on players who have won Premierships. Bob Chitty would turn in his grave at what Carlton have become.

Just check the thread title old mate, seems we are winning so far.

 

[JustaBattler]

Carlton are genuinely embarrassing. They walk around with their chests out and inflated heads when this list has achieved nothing. Absolutely nothing. Then their supporter base sit there and tee off on players who have won Premierships. Bob Chitty would turn in his grave at what Carlton have become.

Start a different thread

this one is about who will better in 2024 Collingwood or Carlton

so what do you reckon - is it COllingwodo the reigning premiers or Carlton the team that has achieved nothing that will be better in 2024?

simple question one would have thought and becoming even more simple as time goes on - I probably have more belief in COllingwodo than the typical COllinwgood poster on here- I think the dirty birds can still make it - for now.

but as your supercoach says (obviously a reader and fan boy of JaB) - the clock is ticking.

tic tock
tic tock

 

[Worm4]

Carlton are genuinely embarrassing. They walk around with their chests out and inflated heads when this list has achieved nothing. Absolutely nothing. Then their supporter base sit there and tee off on players who have won Premierships. Bob Chitty would turn in his grave at what Carlton have become.

Wow. Is that all you got this week ? How about something insightful. Make a prediction on the pies for this week. Give us a laugh

 

[Cleansweep17]

AFL.com.au's Brownlow Predictor after R18​

25 Patrick Cripps (Carlton)
23 Lachie Neale (Brisbane)
22 Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
22 Isaac Heeney (Sydney)*
20 Errol Gulden (Sydney)
20 Chad Warner (Sydney)
19 Zach Merrett (Essendon)
18 Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)


*Ineligible due to suspension

Sportsbet Brownlow odds​

$3.75 Patrick Cripps (Carlton)
$5.50 Nick Daicos (Collingwood)
$6 Lachie Neale (Brisbane)
$6 Marcus Bontempelli (Western Bulldogs)
$6 Zach Merrett (Essendon)
$15 Errol Gulden (Sydney)
$18 Caleb Serong (Fremantle)

I swear if Lachie Neale wins this year it’s got to be rigged. Would make it 1 vote off 4 Brownlows.

 

[Fadge]

Carlton are genuinely embarrassing. They walk around with their chests out and inflated heads when this list has achieved nothing. Absolutely nothing. Then their supporter base sit there and tee off on players who have won Premierships. Bob Chitty would turn in his grave at what Carlton have become.

Spot on.

I feel they need a timely reminder there is a 29% probability their current premiership drought extends to 50 years and beyond.

Tick tock.

 

[Arr0w]

Pie supporters losing the plot completely, struggling to stay on topic, sitting 12th will do that to you I guess

Tick tock

 

[Arr0w]

Spot on.

I feel they need a timely reminder there is a 29% probability their current premiership drought extends to 50 years and beyond.

Tick tock.

Even though it's been pointed out to you numerous times, you still have the % wrong

 

[Robertio]

Spot on.

I feel they need a timely reminder there is a 29% probability their current premiership drought extends to 50 years and beyond.

Tick tock.

You should start another thread about that, Blues have this one under control.

 

[Fadge]

Even though it's been pointed out to you numerous times, you still have the % wrong

View attachment 2051143

Yes, it's exactly the way you guys operate.

'Your calculation is wrong, but I'm incapable of providing an alternate answer, and rationale for the calculation'.

29%

 

[Arr0w]

Yes, it's exactly the way you guys operate.

'Your calculation is wrong, but I'm incapable of providing an alternate answer, and rationale for the calculation'.

29%

Still haven't inserted Tassy in your data I see

 

[Fadge]

Still haven't inserted Tassy in your data I see

And explained why.

But if you want to consider Tassie in addition to any other variables, do the calculation yourself, and share the results and rationale.

Otherwise....

29%

 

[carlton_99]

Yes, it's exactly the way you guys operate.

'Your calculation is wrong, but I'm incapable of providing an alternate answer, and rationale for the calculation'.

29%

You are assuming that every year there is a 1/18 chance that a team wins the GF which in reality is not the case.

And number you come up with needs that approximation symbol we spoke about earlier. You know the one that you criticised another person for not including in their data.

 

[Arr0w]

And explained why.

But if you want to consider Tassie in addition to any other variables, do the calculation yourself, and share the results and rationale.

Otherwise....

29%

This isn't about me fadge, it's about exposing your constant errors

Back to 2024, what's the probability of us finishing higher than the Pies?

 

[Arr0w]

You are assuming that every year there is a 1/18 chance that a team wins the GF which in reality is not the case.

So whatever number you come up with needs that approximation symbol we spoke about earlier. You know the one that you criticised another person for not including in their data.

It's pretty embarrassing, especially not including a 19th team

Then a myriad of factors, which of course can't be weighted so far in advance

 

[JustaBattler]

Slide by slide they will slide together

gone gone gone ing wood!!

 

[Fadge]

It's pretty embarrassing, especially not including a 19th team

Then a myriad of factors, which of course can't be weighted so far in advance

Now we get back to 'there are too many factors to be able to determine a probability'...

No matter how much you want to ignore the fact, there is a nearly one in three chance your team's current premiership drought will be extending to 50 years and beyond.

29%

 

[Fadge]

You are assuming that every year there is a 1/18 chance that a team wins the GF which in reality is not the case.

And number you come up with needs that approximation symbol we spoke about earlier. You know the one that you criticised another person for not including in their data.

So what is the correct 'approximate probability' if not 29%?

Go.

 

[OnceWeWereKings]

Fadge - in one post “you aren’t a contender unless blah, blah, blah……..”

Next post - Your probability to contend and win a premiership in the next 20 years is 29%

“You can’t write this stuff Jerry”

Comedy gold.

 

[carlton_99]

So what is the correct 'approximate probability' if not 29%?

Go.

You said 29% without mentioning the word approximate or using the symbol. I assumed you thought your number is exact which it is not.

Also while we are at it how do you get 29%...
Even assuming a 18-team competition and assuming every team has an equal chance of winning it it would be:
(17/18)^22 * 100 = ~28.43%

Given in 2024 some teams are now unable to win the GF due to number of wins required to make finals this number has probably dropped slightly.

 

[Fadge]

You said 29% without mentioning the word approximate or using the symbol. I assumed you thought your number is exact which it is not.

Also while we are at it how do you get 29%...
Even assuming a 18-team competition and assuming every team has an equal chance of winning it it would be:
(17/18)^22 * 100 = ~28.43%

Given in 2024 some teams are now unable to win the GF due to number of wins required to make finals this number has probably dropped slightly.

Ah, so someone gets it.....

Indeed, go ahead and change the calculation right now if you want to go into the more granular level. It might mean it's something like 27.5% as we sit here right now, but remember Collingwood were $6 for the flag 3 weeks ago and are now much longer than that, so odds can change quickly.

 

[carlton_99]

Ah, so someone gets it.....

Indeed, go ahead and change the calculation right now if you want to go into the more granular level. It might mean it's something like 27.5% as we sit here right now, but remember Collingwood were $6 for the flag 3 weeks ago and are now much longer than that, so odds can change quickly.

Putting it all aside this calculation is meaningless because the assumptions it is based on are not realistic.

But if you want to hang on to it at least quote the right rounded % which is 28% not 29%.

 

[Arr0w]

You said 29% without mentioning the word approximate or using the symbol. I assumed you thought your number is exact which it is not.

Also while we are at it how do you get 29%...
Even assuming a 18-team competition and assuming every team has an equal chance of winning it it would be:
(17/18)^22 * 100 = ~28.43%

Given in 2024 some teams are now unable to win the GF due to number of wins required to make finals this number has probably dropped slightly.

Now, back to 2024, what is the probability of Pies finishing higher than us?

 

[Fadge]

Putting it all aside this calculation is meaningless because the assumptions it is based on are not realistic.

But if you want to hang on to it at least quote the right rounded % which is 28% not 29%.

So I've understated the probability according to some because I excluded Tassie's inclusion in the competition, and overstated it according to others because I rounded up instead of down.

I'm happy to stick to 29%