Who will be better in 2024? Hawthorn or Essendon?

[threesixpio]

Still no.

Fair enough

 

[bluespooner]

One of the things that Hawthorn have done well, especially during their premiership era is focus on specific needs and recruiting players and developing them to fill a role. One of the phrases they used was, "Master your craft" and I love that idea, because it doesn't imply being the best at everything. It means taking the thing that is your specialty, and mastering it, and being the best in the AFL at that thing. "Master your craft." It's a thing of beauty.

Now take Essendon. With the Bombers, you often hear things like, "we want to improve across the board"...."we just want to be more professional at all aspects of the game" Sounds good right? It's not really. Whilst there is nothing wrong inherently with trying to improve everything, you end up being jack of all trades, and master of none. All the major statistical indicators of success, the Bombers end up ranking 7-12, which is where we always finish.

Let's look at a specific example. There is a stat from Champion data measuring "post clearance." In this particular stat, the number one team of all time as Essendon of 2000 - Perhaps not surprising. Other exceptional teams from the last 25 years occupy other spots in the top-10 like Collingwood of 2011, Geelong 2008 etc etc. You know who ranks second of all time in that stat? Hawthorn of THIS year. Post Clearance Hawthorn of 2024 are the best team in the history of the game with the exception of Essendon 2000 at that stat

And this shows you how the Hawks approach the game. Instead of trying to improve across the board and be okay at everything but exceptional at nothing, they have decided to put MORE focus on specific stats that are relevant to premiership success. Master your craft. Their philosophy seems to be that if we can't be the best at everything at least be exceptional at something. At least that gives you an identity - it gives you a particular strength. It doesn't matter if they rank lower in other statistical categories because once they have mastered the ones that are important and become exceptional at those, they can then work at the other stuff.

It's one of the reasons they recruited Massimo D'Ambrosio. He's not that great a player but one thing he can do is kick. So they play to his strengths. One of the key indicators of premiership success is scores from defensive 50. All premiership teams in the last 10 years rank first or second in that stat. So, they recruit players who can transition the ball from back to forward who can kick. Who do Essendon play across half back? Andrew McGrath, who is a better player than Massimo D'Ambrosio, but McGrath tends to spray the ball when kicking from half back. Nick Martin, also a much better player than Massimo, but across half back he tends to turn the ball over. Essendon is so focused on trying to improve across the board that they don't excel at specific needs. Hawthorn focus on specific needs and master those things. Martin for example ALWAYS kicks goals when he is moved forward. So play him there. Maybe Zac Merrett who is the best kick in the team could be used across half back? Sounds like a wild suggestion, but play to his strengths. Hawthorn play to their strengths and are always exceptional at "some" part of the game.

Meanwhile we will attempt to "improve across the board" and fail every step of the way.

Brilliant analysis and read.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Hawthorn are the better team this year. No doubt about it. Goes to show how much impact a winning culture has.

Hawthorn don’t make excuses even with a young list and aim high. They beat the top teams when people don’t give them a chance and smash the teams they are expected to beat. That’s a team and culture with high standards. They maximise the talent they have on the list.

Essendon pat themselves on the back for scraping wins against bottom 4 teams and make every excuse they can think of on why they didn’t and cannot beat top 8 teams. A loser culture that no amount of draft picks can save because the loser mentality will pass onto the next generation.

While Hawthorn will aim for a premiership soon, we will aim for the lofty heights of a finals appearance that’s over at quarter time.

Culture is overstated. We keep drafting stumpy little blokes with poor skill sets, small frames, no power, no kicking skills, no endurance base or tall blokes that will take 5 years to develop. Cant blame culture for that.

Practically all the blokes that possess high quality AFL traits are playing fine. They dont seem to be experiencing cultural issues. If culture is a problem anywhere its list management and their football philosphy.

 

[hawkman]

Culture is overstated. We keep drafting stumpy little blokes with poor skill sets, small frames, no power, no kicking skills, no endurance base or tall blokes that will take 5 years to develop. Cant blame culture for that.

Practically all the blokes that possess high quality AFL traits are playing fine. They dont seem to be experiencing cultural issues. If culture is a problem anywhere its list management and their football philosphy.

The culture though has kept that recruiter who does this at the club for 20 years

 

[Art Vandelay_]

Sounds a lot like Essendon couldn’t identify his strength, and you’ve instead tried to invent a flaw.

Most players outside of the elite echelon of 'stars' - of which D'Ambrossio is not one of - have flaws that could make them a liability. Good coaches and footy departments play them in positions and roles that use their strengths and limit exposure to their weaknesses.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

The culture though has kept that recruiter who does this at the club for 20 years

Dodoro hasnt been our recruiting manager since 2018. He should have been gone but hes not the reason weve sucked at recruiting for a while.

 

[FB19]

One of the things that Hawthorn have done well, especially during their premiership era is focus on specific needs and recruiting players and developing them to fill a role. One of the phrases they used was, "Master your craft" and I love that idea, because it doesn't imply being the best at everything. It means taking the thing that is your specialty, and mastering it, and being the best in the AFL at that thing. "Master your craft." It's a thing of beauty.

Now take Essendon. With the Bombers, you often hear things like, "we want to improve across the board"...."we just want to be more professional at all aspects of the game" Sounds good right? It's not really. Whilst there is nothing wrong inherently with trying to improve everything, you end up being jack of all trades, and master of none. All the major statistical indicators of success, the Bombers end up ranking 7-12, which is where we always finish.

Let's look at a specific example. There is a stat from Champion data measuring "post clearance." In this particular stat, the number one team of all time as Essendon of 2000 - Perhaps not surprising. Other exceptional teams from the last 25 years occupy other spots in the top-10 like Collingwood of 2011, Geelong 2008 etc etc. You know who ranks second of all time in that stat? Hawthorn of THIS year. Post Clearance Hawthorn of 2024 are the best team in the history of the game with the exception of Essendon 2000 at that stat

And this shows you how the Hawks approach the game. Instead of trying to improve across the board and be okay at everything but exceptional at nothing, they have decided to put MORE focus on specific stats that are relevant to premiership success. Master your craft. Their philosophy seems to be that if we can't be the best at everything at least be exceptional at something. At least that gives you an identity - it gives you a particular strength. It doesn't matter if they rank lower in other statistical categories because once they have mastered the ones that are important and become exceptional at those, they can then work at the other stuff.

It's one of the reasons they recruited Massimo D'Ambrosio. He's not that great a player but one thing he can do is kick. So they play to his strengths. One of the key indicators of premiership success is scores from defensive 50. All premiership teams in the last 10 years rank first or second in that stat. So, they recruit players who can transition the ball from back to forward who can kick. Who do Essendon play across half back? Andrew McGrath, who is a better player than Massimo D'Ambrosio, but McGrath tends to spray the ball when kicking from half back. Nick Martin, also a much better player than Massimo, but across half back he tends to turn the ball over. Essendon is so focused on trying to improve across the board that they don't excel at specific needs. Hawthorn focus on specific needs and master those things. Martin for example ALWAYS kicks goals when he is moved forward. So play him there. Maybe Zac Merrett who is the best kick in the team could be used across half back? Sounds like a wild suggestion, but play to his strengths. Hawthorn play to their strengths and are always exceptional at "some" part of the game.

Meanwhile we will attempt to "improve across the board" and fail every step of the way.

Yes I encountered that on a leadership program I went on. It talked about defining what the important skills are for your role and start by ensuring you have a base level of competence in each.
Nothing outstanding just not a fatal flaw. Then once that’s achieved, take your biggest strength and amplify it. Makes sense in a team environment to drive complimentary skills to elite standards and develop your game plan to provide each line and player the maximum opportunity to showcase it.

 

[Captivating]

Keep going lovely, it just emphasises the point Essendon currently have a better football team than Hawthorn, full points for trying though.

27 pages. Let's keep it going.

 

[rei154]

Culture is overstated.

I genuinely think if this is the attitude inside the hanger this would be the first thing to rectify.

I feel like Essendon has had some good apple players- strong work ethic, on field and off field leadership, but also too many bad apples with off field issues and too much figjam without being able to back it up.

It feels like Essendon are doing/about to do a mini rebuild, for Zerretts sake I hope it doesn't take long.

 

[QuietB]

Most players outside of the elite echelon of 'stars' - of which D'Ambrossio is not one of - have flaws that could make them a liability. Good coaches and footy departments play them in positions and roles that use their strengths and limit exposure to their weaknesses.

Miers is a good example for you guys.

I am still trying to get my head around letting a 19yo D’Ambrosio go to retain Heppell

 

[threesixpio]

Keep going lovely, it just emphasises the point Essendon currently have a better football team than Hawthorn, full points for trying though.

 

[threesixpio]

Culture is overstated. We keep drafting stumpy little blokes with poor skill sets, small frames, no power, no kicking skills, no endurance base or tall blokes that will take 5 years to develop. Cant blame culture for that.

Practically all the blokes that possess high quality AFL traits are playing fine. They dont seem to be experiencing cultural issues. If culture is a problem anywhere its list management and their football philosphy.

Culture is not overstated at all. When the Tiges were at their best, or Collingwood last year, you could see a genuine enjoyment and a positive shared vibe and no it wasn’t just because they were enjoying winning. Hard work + fun.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Culture is not overstated at all. When the Tiges were at their best, or Collingwood last year, you could see a genuine enjoyment and a positive shared vibe and no it wasn’t just because they were enjoying winning. Hard work + fun.

Half the successful teams in the last 20 years have had significant drug problems, some had players feeling racially vilified or insulted by presidents or coaches, drink driving captains. All of that is culture. But they won anyway.

At the end of the day, good culture gets attributed to teams that win whether it's true or not.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

I genuinely think if this is the attitude inside the hanger this would be the first thing to rectify.

I feel like Essendon has had some good apple players- strong work ethic, on field and off field leadership, but also too many bad apples with off field issues and too much figjam without being able to back it up.

It feels like Essendon are doing/about to do a mini rebuild, for Zerretts sake I hope it doesn't take long.

Have the cleanest skin list by far. A lot of it because Dodoro has taken character over footballing ability for far too long. It's not important at all, if they can't play footy.

 

[rei154]

Have the cleanest skin list by far. A lot of it because Dodoro has taken character over footballing ability for far too long. It's not important at all, if they can't play footy.

In terms of off field/character issues I would say you guys are no where near the cleanest- players like Stringer are more than enough of a blight to ruin a culture long term.
A good example of a Hawks player who could have done a lot of damage was Patton- as soon as his attitude was made more clear to the club he was ousted.

From what I've heard there is a lot of figjam from other players that allows them to coast around the Don's and the ones who put in are needing more people to fly the flag with them without being flogs.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

In terms of off field/character issues I would say you guys are no where near the cleanest- players like Stringer are more than enough of a blight to ruin a culture long term.
A good example of a Hawks player who could have done a lot of damage was Patton- as soon as his attitude was made more clear to the club he was ousted.

From what I've heard there is a lot of figjam from other players that allows them to coast around the Don's and the ones who put in are needing more people to fly the flag with them without being flogs.

Stringer is now practicing islam and he visits the childrens hospital weekly for the terminally ill kids. His history is irrelevant to now.

As for figjam guys its Perkins and Draper. Hardly endemic. The players are just unskilled. Cracking down wont fix Tsatas kicking action, or Parish or Shiels ability to wear contact, Menzies or guelfis ability to run fast or have clean hands.

4 of the previous 5 games before the Saints we had a higher expected than our opponents. Its skill execution, not cultural malaise.

 

[JayJ20]

Culture is overstated. We keep drafting stumpy little blokes with poor skill sets, small frames, no power, no kicking skills, no endurance base or tall blokes that will take 5 years to develop. Cant blame culture for that.

Practically all the blokes that possess high quality AFL traits are playing fine. They dont seem to be experiencing cultural issues. If culture is a problem anywhere its list management and their football philosphy.

Culture is overstated? It is the single biggest difference between Essendon and Hawthorn right now. There's no reason for Hawthorn to be that much better than us, but the difference is one team has a winning culture and the other has a losing excuse-filled culture.

St Kilda just beat us by 53 points. Essendon hasn't even come close to beating anyone by that much. That's a culture issue not a list issue. Scraping wins against Richmond and West Coast is a culture issue. Not a list management issue.

There are no more excuses for the players to be dropping the way they have.

 

[HairyO]

Dodoro hasnt been our recruiting manager since 2018. He should have been gone but hes not the reason weve sucked at recruiting for a while.

As long as he remains at the club he has his fingers in the pie, manipulating and dictating. The idea that he isnt involved in recruiting is silly.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Dodoro hasnt been our recruiting manager since 2018. He should have been gone but hes not the reason weve sucked at recruiting for a while.

I've read this a few times
What exactly is his role at the club. It seems to be somewhat nebulous

 

[rei154]

Stringer is now practicing islam and he visits the childrens hospital weekly for the terminally ill kids. His history is irrelevant to now.

As for figjam guys its Perkins and Draper. Hardly endemic. The players are just unskilled. Cracking down wont fix Tsatas kicking action, or Parish or Shiels ability to wear contact, Menzies or guelfis ability to run fast or have clean hands.

4 of the previous 5 games before the Saints we had a higher expected than our opponents. Its skill execution, not cultural malaise.

Sorry, I don't think it's irrelevant. I'm glad he's no longer chasing underage girls and he's having a positive societal impact, but his past absolutely impacts the standards accepted.

With regards to the players in your club I'll accede to you in terms of who the figjam blokes are, from the outside looking in it seems like a many more of the players are getting high off their own supply without putting in the work to do so.

Hawthorn is currently getting high off its own supply, and I dont know how sustainable it is over the decade or so this playing group could largely be together. Right now it works though.

 

[threesixpio]

I've read this a few times
What exactly is his role at the club. It seems to be somewhat nebulous

He’s there to provide a winning culture to the recruiting team

 

[FB19]

Im not saying it is all his fault and the mosquito meme is good so Dodoro has earned his career for that alone, but I wish I was able to go through my career with so little performance and be praised so much. As far as the thread goes surely the question is answered.

 

[H00t]

People who hate on champion data are just mad it doesn’t fit their narrative. It’s a fact based statistic in all cases. Context to the stats helps which is why Hoyne has been awesome, but it is purely data and it’s hard to argue against.

My problem with champion data is they hide all the good and interesting stats and instead what’s available are only the most basic of stats.

Instead of rate of inside 50 kicks retained etc. they give us player ratings which is only different weighted SuperCoach points.

Then when they do give out these different stats they only give out a small portion at a time which never tells the full story.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

Culture is overstated? It is the single biggest difference between Essendon and Hawthorn right now. There's no reason for Hawthorn to be that much better than us, but the difference is one team has a winning culture and the other has a losing excuse-filled culture.

St Kilda just beat us by 53 points. Essendon hasn't even come close to beating anyone by that much. That's a culture issue not a list issue. Scraping wins against Richmond and West Coast is a culture issue. Not a list management issue.

There are no more excuses for the players to be dropping the way they have.

The single biggest difference is they haven't draft misfits to play roles they aren't suitable for. Frankly our players do not have the right genetic make ups to make a good team.

Why are we fatigued at this point of the year? Because we don't have good endurance runners, because we don't have big hard bodies cracking in to protect the smaller guys? Because we don't have good kicks of the ball, so we are chasing tail on turnover and not getting value out of our possession. Stkilda did beat us by 53 points but in our previous 4 games we had higher expected score.

How is that indicative of a team that has a poor culture? Not saying that the culture is exceptional or the best, rather that our problems haven't been effort based before this weekend, and improving the culture is not going to make these specific players not under skilled for required role.

There are genetic realities to the game, we can't wish away. None of that is solved by having the best player culture in the competition.

The problems are skill based founded in poor football theory from either recruiting or coaching.

 

[Red Black and Blue]

I've read this a few times
What exactly is his role at the club. It seems to be somewhat nebulous

Essentially contracts and trades/player acquisition. He's got a lot of relationships with established players around the comp and they want to keep that.

It's Robert Forster Knight that's been in charge of drafting, he's also been pretty bad so feel free to have a go there too, and now Matt Rosa is there to oversee it all.