Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

[Xtreme]

Bad time to use the Hulkamania example after what happened on Tuesday

HE was Hollywood Hulk Hogan at that moment

 

[Mr Meow]

Interesting about Dogs 2016
7th place but as you say only a game off top4

Very rarely you get a super even season at the top. 2016's top 7 were very bunched together, just like the top 7 of 2024. You could jumble up the top 7 teams in most orders those seasons and people wouldn't bat an eyelid.

It could happen again in 2025 but it isn't common.

 

[TheUnicorn]

Carlton finish higher but Hawthorn will be more of a threat for the flag.

 

[Fadge]

Both sides similar finishing position after H&A

Arr0w has 12 teams finishing between 5th and 8th...

 

[Fadge]

The whole point of playing this sport is to get as far as possible.

Making top 4 is making the prelims or further, there's really no debate to be had here.

A team being in top 4 for most of the year and not even making the prelims is not a top 4 team, because... you guessed it, they didn't make the top 4.

To say otherwise is a waste of time.

But they did.

The top 4 team played in a Qualifying Final, and gave themselves a big chance at genuinely contending for the premiership.

The 5th team played in an Elimination Final, and gave themselves the slimmest of chances of contending for the premiership.

 

[Arr0w]

Arr0w has 12 teams finishing between 5th and 8th...

Could you name them for me?

 

[Thrawn]

But they did.

The top 4 team played in a Qualifying Final, and gave themselves a big chance at genuinely contending for the premiership.

The 5th team played in an Elimination Final, and gave themselves the slimmest of chances of contending for the premiership.

They didn't reach the final 4, none of what you say is relevant.

You have a greater chance at contending making a prelim than bundling out before it, might want to check your math there.

 

[Thrawn]

Incorrect, context matters. Carlton are not aspiring to have a miraculous run of finals out of nowhere. It's time to be a proper top 4 team. 13 H&A win seasons are not a platform for premierships - find me examples in this finals format.

As I explained with Brisbane, they were coming off the back of a grand final and a handful of top 4 finishes. They were very finals hardened and were roughly a top 4 team in the comp for 5 years preceding 2025. If Carlton go on a similar run, then yes in a few years they would be a chance at a flag from 5th-8th.

So there is really only one side that has done it 5th-8th in this finals format without being heavily credentialed heading into the season: 2016 Bulldogs. Around 95% of the time you are going to need to do it the conventional ways: from the top 4, or from 5th-8th after having a bunch of top 4 finishes, prelims and a GF appearance already in the bank. Carlton have not had a Brisbane 2019-2023 run behind them.

It is not incorrect. The context here is where a team finishes in that year.

A team who was super consistent in the previous year but fail to make a prelim the next, due to injury, form etc aren't a top 4 side that year because they didn't reach that far. If they were good enough in that year, then they would've made the prelims. I never said they were platforms, I said if you're a top 4 side of X year, you have to make the prelims. You are ignoring the team's finishing position.

Of course I'd love Carlton to be finishing in the top four in the H&A season, but the fact remains in 2023 they got further than any other team bar three others. What other teams performances were in previous years leading up to that, does not change that fact.

 

[Fadge]

They didn't reach the final 4, none of what you say is relevant.

You have a greater chance at contending making a prelim than bundling out before it, might want to check your math there.

Melbourne in 2023 - if they beat Collingwood in the Qualifying Final they become premiership favourites. They lost by 7 points.

GWS in 2024 - They beat Sydney in the Qualifying Final, they get a home Preliminary Final. They were 20 points up at 3/4 time and lost by a goal.

Both teams had a greater chance at contending for the premiership than Carlton did in 2023 for example, given the difficulty of Carlton's preliminary final match-up.

Hence why I rate GWS as genuine flag contenders in 2024 (they lost by slim margins to both Grand Finalists), despite not making a Preliminary Final, and don't rate Carlton as premiership contenders in 2023, despite the fact they made a Preliminary Final they were never going to win...

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Melbourne in 2023 - if they beat Collingwood in the Qualifying Final they become premiership favourites. They lost by 7 points.

GWS in 2024 - They beat Sydney in the Qualifying Final, they get a home Preliminary Final. They were 20 points up at 3/4 time and lost by a goal.

Both teams had a greater chance at contending for the premiership than Carlton did in 2023 for example, given the difficulty of Carlton's preliminary final match-up.

Hence why I rate GWS as genuine flag contenders in 2024 (they lost by slim margins to both Grand Finalists), despite not making a Preliminary Final, and don't rate Carlton as premiership contenders in 2023, despite the fact they made the Preliminary Final...

Carlton who beat Melbourne (who apparently would have been premiership favourites if they beat the Pies) end up losing a prelim final by less than 3 goals but weren't considered contenders because hocus pocus Fadgey magic.

Go troll somewhere else, there's a banter thread for a reason.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Didn't the eagles get to choose between the Hawthorn and Carlton first round picks next year as part of the Barrass trade, and they chose the hawks one?
I'd say that's the best indicator - actual professionals in the industry, given the choice, are favouring Carlton to finish higher

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Didn't the eagles get to choose between the Hawthorn and Carlton first round picks next year as part of the Barrass trade, and they chose the hawks one?
I'd say that's the best indicator - actual professionals in the industry, given the choice, are favouring Carlton to finish higher

While I'd like to agree, this is the same team that traded pick 3 for Matt Owies and a couple of mid range first rounders...

But yes, I think that's pretty much the reason this thread was sparked in the first place.

 

[RCAB]

normally you'd say that people have short memories.... but the opposite appears when assesssing Carlton, it appears people have long memories.

 

[Taper]

normally you'd say that people have short memories.... but the opposite appears when assesssing Carlton, it appears people have long memories.

I'm old enough to remember Carlton sacking six head coaches.
People say they'll sack Voss if 2025 is another mediocre season, but Brian Cook won't let it happen given he's never sacked a coach in his 35 years working in football administration at the top level.

 

[matey]

Hawks are going to be without Lewis or Dear for a large chunk of the season and their midfield is average at best compared to the rest of the league.

Based on the last spanking …….. if Hawks midfield is average Carlton’s midfield must be well below average at best!

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Based on the last spanking …….. if Hawks midfield is average Carlton’s midfield must be well below average at best!

Blues were in free fall by that stage of the season so I don't really look to that as much of an indicator of each teams strength.

If you were given the pick which are you taking for 2025?

TDK
Cripps
Walsh
Cerra
Hewett
Jagga

Or

Meek
Newcombe
Day
Worpel
Nash
Mackenzie/Ward

 

[peetoo]

Blues were in free fall by that stage of the season so I don't really look to that as much of an indicator of each teams strength.

If you were given the pick which are you taking for 2025?

TDK
Cripps
Walsh
Cerra
Hewett
Jagga

Or

Meek
Newcombe
Day
Worpel
Nash
Mackenzie/Ward

Only Cripps makes it a contest, otherwise Hawks by so much

 

[matey]

Blues were in free fall by that stage of the season so I don't really look to that as much of an indicator of each teams strength.

If you were given the pick which are you taking for 2025?

TDK
Cripps
Walsh
Cerra
Hewett
Jagga

Or

Meek
Newcombe
Day
Worpel
Nash
Mackenzie/Ward

Obviously the midfield that were not in free fall during the pointy end of the season!

But this is a simplistic scenario you propose. Under Sam what is the Hawks midfield group? …… when our backs are venturing up the ground kicking goals or hitting up forwards or some of our small forwards are clocking up 12km+ each week. You need to also throw in Impey, Amon, Mass, Weddle, Finn, Macdonald, Moore, and Ginni (and good luck when Wiz builds a tank and gets to more contests in between creating havoc closer to goal) into your above groups as all of these players switch into a ball transition/midfield type of role during various stages of a game. Sam has said publicly on a number of occasions he wants to see several players getting it 20 times rather than rely on the same one or two players getting it 30 times each week.

Plenty are saying that Hawks will be worked out which is fair enough but the counter argument to that is the Hawks have just scratched the surface with this group of players. Let’s see how they go when all the kids get to 50-100 games. This season Hawks may take a step back before another few steps forward but Sam has them on the right track playing some attractive footy. Given it’s BF guaranteed to get a few lol’s from all the supporters out there that have the Hawks as their second favourite team but let’s see how things unfold

 

[StillAtLarge]

I'll say Carlton, narrowly. Too much kpp talent to not finish in the top 4. Also, they play Richmond early (should win that by 60+) and the weagles twice

 

[peetoo]

Let’s talk about the total goals by carlton players who left in 2024

 

[Blackhawk42]

Blues were in free fall by that stage of the season so I don't really look to that as much of an indicator of each teams strength.

If you were given the pick which are you taking for 2025?

TDK
Cripps
Walsh
Cerra
Hewett
Jagga

Or

Meek
Newcombe
Day
Worpel
Nash
Mackenzie/Ward

This isn't the mic drop you think it is, respectfully.

Hewett is a good player, but is he necessarily better than Worpel?

Newcombe and Day aren't ahead of Cripps and Walsh, and I'm more than happy to admit that. However, I'd argue that the former are more dynamic and are also both younger with scope for a lot more improvement.
Let's revisit that in a couple of years time.
For 2025, sure, you'd take the Blues pair.

Jagga Smith hasn't played a game yet.
For that reason alone I'd be taking Mackenzie in particular, if we're only discussing 2025.

I like Cerra, but far out it would be nice if he could stay on the park for an extended run. From a durability standpoint, I'm sure many would be happy to pick Nash or Worpel before him.

As for the rucks, TDK and Meek are such different players. They also have a relatively small sample size of looking like genuine A-grade rucks.
Toss of the coin. Do you want the athletic type who can work over his opponent in general play, or the Gorilla ruck who can win the strength battle and has very underrated skills?

 

[TheFourPillars]

This isn't the mic drop you think it is, respectfully.

Hewett is a good player, but is he necessarily better than Worpel?

Newcombe and Day aren't ahead of Cripps and Walsh, and I'm more than happy to admit that. However, I'd argue that the former are more dynamic and are also both younger with scope for a lot more improvement.
Let's revisit that in a couple of years time.
For 2025, sure, you'd take the Blues pair.

Jagga Smith hasn't played a game yet.
For that reason alone I'd be taking Mackenzie in particular, if we're only discussing 2025.

I like Cerra, but far out it would be nice if he could stay on the park for an extended run. From a durability standpoint, I'm sure many would be happy to pick Nash or Worpel before him.

As for the rucks, TDK and Meek are such different players. They also have a relatively small sample size of looking like genuine A-grade rucks.
Toss of the coin. Do you want the athletic type who can work over his opponent in general play, or the Gorilla ruck who can win the strength battle and has very underrated skills?

That's the thing with Carlton supporters. They still talk about individuals and individual stars. That is your success and your failure. Take Cripps for instance a star no doubt but Nash will play on him to limit his influence. You could try and do that to the Hawks but because we are so even across the board it's hard to shut us down in the midfield. It's the midfield team you are up against and how they play as a team. Given the last two years of performance against the best I would choose my team currently as they are still young and got real scope for improvement. Remember games aren't played on paper.

 

[Gavin Excell]

Obviously the midfield that were not in free fall during the pointy end of the season!

But this is a simplistic scenario you propose. Under Sam what is the Hawks midfield group? …… when our backs are venturing up the ground kicking goals or hitting up forwards or some of our small forwards are clocking up 12km+ each week. You need to also throw in Impey, Amon, Mass, Weddle, Finn, Macdonald, Moore, and Ginni (and good luck when Wiz builds a tank and gets to more contests in between creating havoc closer to goal) into your above groups as all of these players switch into a ball transition/midfield type of role during various stages of a game. Sam has said publicly on a number of occasions he wants to see several players getting it 20 times rather than rely on the same one or two players getting it 30 times each week.

Plenty are saying that Hawks will be worked out which is fair enough but the counter argument to that is the Hawks have just scratched the surface with this group of players. Let’s see how they go when all the kids get to 50-100 games. This season Hawks may take a step back before another few steps forward but Sam has them on the right track playing some attractive footy. Given it’s BF guaranteed to get a few lol’s from all the supporters out there that have the Hawks as their second favourite team but let’s see how things unfold

The big question mark I have is whether they challenge without a good key forward. Last year the small forward approach worked well but not sure if that's sustainable at the pointy end

 

[Fadge]

That's the thing with Carlton supporters. They still talk about individuals and individual stars. That is your success and your failure. Take Cripps for instance a star no doubt but Nash will play on him to limit his influence. You could try and do that to the Hawks but because we are so even across the board it's hard to shut us down in the midfield. It's the midfield team you are up against and how they play as a team. Given the last two years of performance against the best I would choose my team currently as they are still young and got real scope for improvement. Remember games aren't played on paper.

Absolutely.

'So much talent'!

Cripps
Curnow
Weitering
McKay
Walsh
De Koning

Then who?

 

[TheFourPillars]

The big question mark I have is whether they challenge without a good key forward. Last year the small forward approach worked well but not sure if that's sustainable at the pointy end

Yep I agree. Dear going down in preseason hasn't helped that. However we won't know how bad his problems are till January end and Mitch Lewis is flying in preseason. He looks fitter than he has ever been and may come back earlier than expected hopefully to have a better impact at the end of the year.

Edit: In the mean time we have swing men in Sicily Weddle and Battle that can fill the role till they come back