Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

[carlton_99]

What I don't understand is why people can't accept "we were about the same". Like if your sides are separated by only percentage after 24 rounds, and the h2h disagrees with who had the higher %, you can't really get any closer than that. Ideally in such a situation one team would obviously prove themselves better in finals. It just doesn't always happen. All you need to do is get 2 more points, or advance further in finals, and it's concrete. Most times with threads like this teams will separate themselves in those terms.

In reality the teams would be about the same - I don't disagree. But I just think if you go to the trouble of setting up the thread and have all the banter that goes with it during the year there should be a team that comes out on top in the end for the purposes of thread specifically.

And on your second point it wasn't the case with Blues/Pies thread. One team made finals and one didn't and it was still not clear cut to some. Like I said I'm happy with any metric as long as it's established before the season starts and kept the same throughout the year.

 

[Mr Meow]

In reality the teams would be about the same - I don't disagree. But I just think if you go to the trouble of setting up the thread and have all the banter that goes with it during the year there should be a team that comes out on top in the end for the purposes of the thread.

And on your second point it wasn't the case with Blues/Pies thread. One team made finals and one didn't and it was still not clear cut. Like I said I'm happy with any metric as long as it's established before the season starts and kept the same throughout the year.

It's not much trouble to create the thread. Two sets of supporters got tetchy with each other and so want to argue for a season, which they will get to do, and if their teams are about the same quality at the end, they will get to argue some more. The thread would therefore serve its purpose.

If there's a clear winner then great, it means one set of supporters get to troll the others for at least an off season. Usually that's what would happen. Collingwood and Carlton supporters instead have been at a bit of a stalemate after 2024, which is why the back and forth over who was better continued.

 

[carlton_99]

It's not much trouble to create the thread. Two sets of supporters got tetchy with each other and so want to argue for a season, which they will get to do, and if their teams are about the same quality at the end, they will get to argue some more. The thread would therefore serve its purpose.

If there's a clear winner then great, it means one set of supporters get to troll the others for at least an off season. Usually that's what would happen. Collingwood and Carlton supporters instead have been at a bit of a stalemate after 2024, which is why the back and forth over who was better continued.

I guess that's where we differ. In my eyes the whole point of the H+A season is to qualify for finals. If one team qualifies and the other doesn't then that first team has had a more successful season. If it was a situation like you mentioned where both teams get KO'd in the same week of finals and then ladder position is also very tight (i.e., maybe small % difference between them) it does become really close. But to avoid all the unnecessary bickering at the end of the season I would just prefer a tiebreaker.

But this is obviously a group thing so if the majority are wanting to maintain some grey area then it's fine. Alternatively, if we want an answer in the end for the purposes of this thread I'm happy as long as the metric stays consistent all year.

 

[Mr Meow]

I guess that's where we differ. In my eyes the whole point of the H+A season is to qualify for finals. If one team qualifies and the other doesn't then that first team has had a more successful season. If it was a situation like you mentioned where both teams get KO'd in the same week of finals and then ladder position is also very tight (i.e., maybe small % difference between them) it does become really close. But to avoid all the unnecessary bickering at the end of the season I would just prefer a tiebreaker.

But this is obviously a group thing so if the majority are wanting to maintain some grey area then it's fine. Alternatively, if we want an answer in the end for the purposes of this thread I'm happy as long as the metric stays consistent all year.

But I don't understand why 8th vs 9th would be any different to 7th vs 8th finishing on the same points. It's still the same situation where you'd want something like a h2h advantage confirming the % advantage. If it contradicts it, good luck convincing anyone that team A was better than team B, or vice versa.

The message behind your post comes across as "it would be nice to know we will have an answer either way, even if we know situations can arise where deep down there isn't a difference". And yeah it doesn't really matter if so. Either people agree to it or not. I know with the Geelong vs Hawthorn thread, there's not a chance in Hell I'm celebrating supremacy if both sides finish on 52 points but we get thumped in an EF and they finish 9th. I have no idea if that's an opinion that would be shared by other Geelong supporters, or indeed Hawthorn supporters if they were the ones ahead by % only. 2024 Geelong had a better W/L record and the h2h record, so it was simple.

 

[carlton_99]

But I don't understand why 8th vs 9th would be any different to 7th vs 8th finishing on the same points. It's still the same situation where you'd want something like a h2h advantage confirming the % advantage. If it contradicts it, good luck convincing anyone that team A was better than team B, or vice versa.

The message behind your post comes across as "it would be nice to know we will have an answer either way, even if we know situations can arise where deep down there isn't a difference". And yeah it doesn't really matter if so. Either people agree to it or not. I know with the Geelong vs Hawthorn thread, there's not a chance in Hell I'm celebrating supremacy if both sides finish on 52 points but we get thumped in an EF and they finish 9th. I have no idea if that's an opinion that would be shared by other Geelong supporters, or indeed Hawthorn supporters if they were the ones ahead by % only. 2024 Geelong had a better W/L record and the h2h record, so it was simple.

My point is more even if the difference isn't significant it's still a difference. And I don't think there is any realistic situation that could arise where there is zero difference between the two teams after a season that goes for 23+ games.

And I think the level of celebration would be correlated to the level of banter during the season. If this thread stays the way it is where it has been mainly about serious football analysis then I doubt you will see many overexuberant celebrations no matter how big the gap is for whatever team comes out on top. If it becomes like the Carlton/Collingwood thread where it was endless banter and heaps of attacks on both teams all year then obviously you will get more overexuberant celebrations even if the difference between teams is small.

Edit: Again I am only talking for myself here. If people on here want to keep it more subjective it's 100% fine.

 

[Mr Meow]

My point is more even if the difference isn't significant it's still a difference. And I don't think there is any realistic situation that could arise where there is zero difference between the two teams after a season that goes for 23+ games.

And I think the level of celebration would be correlated to the level of banter during the season. If this thread stays the way it is where it has been mainly about serious football analysis then I doubt you will see many overexuberant celebrations no matter how big the gap is for whatever team comes out on top. If it becomes like the Carlton/Collingwood thread where it was endless banter and heaps of attacks on both teams all year then obviously you will get more overexuberant celebrations even if the difference between teams is small.

Edit: Again I am only talking for myself here. If people on here want to keep it more subjective it's 100% fine.

I completely get it. If there's no winner at the end of a thread like this, we get the same flat feeling after a drawn game of AFL. And I do understand your point that it could diminish weekly bragging rights opportunities whenever things are deathly close. So there a lot of emotion-based reasons to just agree to terms before the season that would always leave a clear winner or rolling winner. There is nothing fun about "yeah we ended up about the same after all that".

 

[BIGHAWK23]

Carlton have a horrendously unbalanced list and didnt address their main issues during the off season

Quality 2nd KPD and a quality small forward

Slow on transition and poor ability to run games out

Will lose the same way they did this year, giving up leads late in game

 

[carlton_99]

Will lose the same way they did this year, giving up leads late in game

I don't remember this being much of an issue so had a look and we lost two games all season when we had a 3 quarter time lead. What games are you referring to?

Edit: One of those two games (vs ADE) was actually a draw at 3QTR time but we did have a lead later in the game we gave up so I'm counting it.

 

[JustaBattler]

Carlton have a horrendously unbalanced list and didnt address their main issues during the off season

Quality 2nd KPD and a quality small forward

Slow on transition and poor ability to run games out

Will lose the same way they did this year, giving up leads late in game

The lack of a decent 2nd KPD is a huge issue for a few reasons - mostly it has meant that Weitering has had to sacrifice hsi ablity to be an elite interceptor and elite kicking game as he has been busy trying to cover for the lack of a 2nd KPD. He has had to run 15km+ in games to do this.

Lack of high quality finishing small forwards has also been a big negative- more so lack of forward defensive pressure allowing quality oppoinents to easy rebound exits - defensive weakness starting in forward lines saw Carlton with not top8 quality defensive stats.

I disagree that the list is 'horrendously' unbalanced and I see no evidence that Carlton cant run out games - 4 quarter endurance hasnt been an issue for thre years now- lack of outside leg speed has been...

You missed Carlton's biggest weakness though - very average kicking skill between the arcs - hence the issues with transition and a forced slow grind game style and too predictable down the line bombs too often.

Any improvement in ball movement between the arcs will make a huge difference - there are obvious easy partial fixes to this.

 

[Kenny Hunter09]

Walsh won the Gary Ayres medal in 2023...not sure what that says about finals performances or his top level...might say something???

Jai Newcombe plays one nice final against the Dogs and all of a sudden he's Brent Crosswell/Wayne Johnston...

For the first time in many years, Walsh is doing a full pre season...if his back holds up it's going to be exciting for Carlton supporters.

Apologies fellow Blues fans. After all my years of existence, I should know by now that my kiss is deadlier than Lou’s ever was.

 

[hawkman]

Apologies fellow Blues fans. After all my years of existence, I should know by now that my kiss is deadlier than Lou’s ever was.

At least you get an extra practice game to build fitness in before your season starts against us in Round 2

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Carlton have a horrendously unbalanced list and didnt address their main issues during the off season

Quality 2nd KPD and a quality small forward

Slow on transition and poor ability to run games out

Will lose the same way they did this year, giving up leads late in game

Carlton's lack of talent looks a lot worse to Hawthorn fans as we probably have the best depth in the league in those two areas.

KPD 1%'ers: WEITERING/Barass ... Weddle/Battle/Frost ... KEMP/Scrimshaw/Sicily

SF >1 Gpg: Moore/OWIES/MacDonald/Ginnivan/Watson/Breust/

 

[peetoo]

Carlton keep shipping out good small forwards

 

[Fadge]

Carlton keep shipping out good small forwards

Owies to return to Carlton in 4 years after kicking 170 goals for West Coast and playing in a Grand Final

 

[Fadge]

Carlton's lack of talent looks a lot worse to Hawthorn fans as we probably have the best depth in the league in those two areas.

KPD 1%'ers: WEITERING/Barass ... Weddle/Battle/Frost ... KEMP/Scrimshaw/Sicily

SF >1 Gpg: Moore/OWIES/MacDonald/Ginnivan/Watson/Breust/

Except.... Owies is no longer at Carlton.

Where do Fogarty, Moir, Motlop and Williams rank?

 

[carlton_99]

Carlton keep shipping out good small forwards

Who are these high quality small forwards that we have shipped out?

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

Supercoach certainly isn't the be all and end all, but it does give something of a objective view. Looking at this in a positional Head to Head:

Tom De Koning	18​	1785​	RUCK	Lloyd Meek	21​	2194​
Harry McKay	21​	1775​	KPF	James Sicily	22​	2204​
Charlie Curnow	21​	1731​	KPF	Joshua Weddle	25​	1815​
Marc Pittonet	14​	1243​	KPF	Mabior Chol	23​	1389​
Jacob Weitering	22​	1667​	KPD	Jack Scrimshaw	24​	2014​
Brodie Kemp	21​	1444​	KPD	Josh Battle	23​	1939​
Mitch McGovern	18​	1373​	KPD	Tom Barrass	18​	1510​
Matthew Kennedy	24​	1802​	SF	Dylan Moore	25​	2412​
Elijah Hollands	22​	1650​	SF	Connor MacDonald	25​	1868​
Zachary Williams	19​	1264​	SF	Jack Ginnivan	23​	1656​
Nic Newman	24​	2444​	SD	Karl Amon	25​	2289​
Adam Saad	18​	1536​	SD	Jarman Impey	25​	2044​
Jordan Boyd	19​	1153​	SD	Blake Hardwick	25​	1929​
Patrick Cripps	24​	2669​	Mid	Jai Newcombe	25​	2541​
Sam Walsh	20​	2146​	Mid	James Worpel	25​	2161​
Blake Acres	23​	2124​	Mid	Massimo D'Ambrosio	24​	2131​
George Hewett	22​	2063​	Mid	Conor Nash	25​	1909​
Oliver Hollands	23​	1425​	Mid	Will Day	16​	1459​
Adam Cerra	13​	1073​	Mid	Cameron Mackenzie	20​	1217​
Lachlan Fogarty	15​	919​	UTF	Nick Watson	18​	1211​
Lachlan Cowan	17​	1032​	UTD	Sam Frost	24​	1170​
Alex Cincotta	16​	783​	Bench	Jack Gunston	18​	992​
Matt Cottrell	14​	764​	Bench	Calsher Dear	17​	891​
Jack Carroll	15​	625​	Bench	Luke Breust	19​	741​
Orazio Fantasia	15​	606​	Bench	Harry Morrison	12​	740​
Corey Durdin	14​	537​	Bench	Finn Maginness	13​	695​
Matt Owies	23​	1230​	Bench	Josh Ward	12​	678​
			Bench	Changkuoth Jiath	11​	634​
			Bench	Seamus Mitchell	10​	375​

Owies out, Barass and Battle in. Sicily and Weddle (the biggest goalkickers of our KPD group) go forward

For those playing along at home, that gives a best 22 of:

LLOYD MEEK

JAMES SICILY

JOSHUA WEDDLE

MABIOR CHOL

JACK SCRIMSHAW

JOSH BATTLE

TOM BARRASS

DYLAN MOORE

CONNOR MACDONALD

JACK GINNIVAN

NIC NEWMAN

JARMAN IMPEY

BLAKE HARDWICK

PATRICK CRIPPS

JAMES WORPEL

MASSIMO D'AMBROSIO

GEORGE HEWETT

WILL DAY

CAMERON MACKENZIE

NICK WATSON

SAM FROST

I bolded the Cartlon players - makes them a bit easier to find!

Edit, still couldn't find 'em. Now Blue!

 

[carlton_99]

Owies to return to Carlton in 4 years after kicking 170 goals for West Coast and playing in a Grand Final

You're comparing Matt Owies to arguably the greatest small forward of the century?

 

[carlton_99]

Supercoach certainly isn't the be all and end all, but it does give something of a objective view. Looking at this in a positional Head to Head:

Tom De Koning	18​	1785​	RUCK	Lloyd Meek	21​	2194​
Harry McKay	21​	1775​	KPF	James Sicily	22​	2204​
Charlie Curnow	21​	1731​	KPF	Joshua Weddle	25​	1815​
Marc Pittonet	14​	1243​	KPF	Mabior Chol	23​	1389​
Jacob Weitering	22​	1667​	KPD	Jack Scrimshaw	24​	2014​
Brodie Kemp	21​	1444​	KPD	Josh Battle	23​	1939​
Mitch McGovern	18​	1373​	KPD	Tom Barrass	18​	1510​
Matthew Kennedy	24​	1802​	SF	Dylan Moore	25​	2412​
Elijah Hollands	22​	1650​	SF	Connor MacDonald	25​	1868​
Zachary Williams	19​	1264​	SF	Jack Ginnivan	23​	1656​
Nic Newman	24​	2444​	SD	Karl Amon	25​	2289​
Adam Saad	18​	1536​	SD	Jarman Impey	25​	2044​
Jordan Boyd	19​	1153​	SD	Blake Hardwick	25​	1929​
Patrick Cripps	24​	2669​	Mid	Jai Newcombe	25​	2541​
Sam Walsh	20​	2146​	Mid	James Worpel	25​	2161​
Blake Acres	23​	2124​	Mid	Massimo D'Ambrosio	24​	2131​
George Hewett	22​	2063​	Mid	Conor Nash	25​	1909​
Oliver Hollands	23​	1425​	Mid	Will Day	16​	1459​
Adam Cerra	13​	1073​	Mid	Cameron Mackenzie	20​	1217​
Lachlan Fogarty	15​	919​	UTF	Nick Watson	18​	1211​
Lachlan Cowan	17​	1032​	UTD	Sam Frost	24​	1170​
Alex Cincotta	16​	783​	Bench	Jack Gunston	18​	992​
Matt Cottrell	14​	764​	Bench	Calsher Dear	17​	891​
Jack Carroll	15​	625​	Bench	Luke Breust	19​	741​
Orazio Fantasia	15​	606​	Bench	Harry Morrison	12​	740​
Corey Durdin	14​	537​	Bench	Finn Maginness	13​	695​
Matt Owies	23​	1230​	Bench	Josh Ward	12​	678​
			Bench	Changkuoth Jiath	11​	634​
			Bench	Seamus Mitchell	10​	375​

For those playing along at home, that gives a best 22 of:

LLOYD MEEK

JAMES SICILY

JOSHUA WEDDLE

MABIOR CHOL

JACK SCRIMSHAW

JOSH BATTLE

TOM BARRASS

DYLAN MOORE

CONNOR MACDONALD

JACK GINNIVAN

NIC NEWMAN

JARMAN IMPEY

BLAKE HARDWICK

PATRICK CRIPPS

JAMES WORPEL

MASSIMO D'AMBROSIO

GEORGE HEWETT

WILL DAY

CAMERON MACKENZIE

NICK WATSON

SAM FROST

I bolded the Cartlon players - makes them a bit easier to find!

Supercoach points to rank players? Let's at least try to be a little bit serious now.

 

[The Feeder Club]

Supercoach points to rank players? Let's at least try to be a little bit serious now.

Be fair, everyone knows Josh Weddle is a better KPF than Curnow

 

[carlton_99]

Be fair, everyone knows Josh Weddle is a better KPF than Curnow

Except Sam Mitchell it seems

 

[YeoShuey]

Be fair, everyone knows Josh Weddle is a better KPF than Curnow

I thought this wasn't a banter thread??

Anyway, this is a next level ridiculous statement like saying that Mason Cox is a better player than Sam Walsh.

 

[The Feeder Club]

I thought this wasn't a banter thread??

Anyway, this is a next level ridiculous statement like saying that Mason Cox is a better player than Sam Walsh.

Be fair, everyone knows sarcasm when they see it