Prediction Who will be better in 2025? Carlton or Hawthorn

[Mr Meow]

This is spot on.

People look at their top handful of players and conclude 'Carlton have an elite list'.

They do comparisons like the post you responded to, and people state ' I have Carlton's top 5 well ahead'.

But Carlton have had the best half dozen players of any team in the league for the past 3 to 4 years, and every year they've fallen well short of premiership contention.

12 wins
13 wins
13 wins

I read earlier someone commenting on Carlton's forward line being the best in the league....

Curnow
McKay
Then who?

The contenders bat 6 to 8 deep in their forward line. I don't even know who Carlton's third best forward is. I do know their third best forward would be outside of the top 6 of any team that wants to genuinely contend for the premiership.

Including mine.

Which of Carlton's forwards (outside of their top 2) are better than:
Mihocek
McStay
Elliott
Hill
De Goey (who we expect to play predominantly forward in 2025)
Schultz
McCreery

Their win tallies have been below par for their list. They have a good list capable of finishing top 4.

Saad, Newman, Acres, Cerra and Hewett are a good second tier.

Some of their no name players filled roles well last year until that horrendous final stretch of the season.

Consistency and health/fitness are issues that leave question marks, but it is not a bad list by any stretch.

 

[Dewyyyyy]

Newcombe needs more consistency in his game IMO.

He is big but not quick.

And he is the Hawks #1 mid.

How many other clubs would he be the #1 mid?

I would suggest none. Will be interested in Hawks fans thoughts on where he ranks compared to other clubs. And the Lols I will put in the 'yep I have nothing" column.

No surprise who the first lol was from.

So Lad which other club is Newcombe the #1 mid at?

Newcombe is explosive, he did need consistency earlier in the year but post bye and into the finals he was consistent and one of the better mids in the comp. Ridiculous

 

[peetoo]

Hawks have Carlton’s first this year haven’t they? …… tell you what if Carlton end up bottom 4 this year they will become my second favourite team!

Bottom 10 should be enough…easy draw apparently

 

[Dewyyyyy]

This is spot on.

People look at their top handful of players and conclude 'Carlton have an elite list'.

They do comparisons like the post you responded to, and people state ' I have Carlton's top 5 well ahead'.

But Carlton have had the best half dozen players of any team in the league for the past 3 to 4 years, and every year they've fallen well short of premiership contention.

12 wins
13 wins
13 wins

I read earlier someone commenting on Carlton's forward line being the best in the league....

Curnow
McKay
Then who?

The contenders bat 6 to 8 deep in their forward line. I don't even know who Carlton's third best forward is. I do know their third best forward would be outside of the top 6 of any team that wants to genuinely contend for the premiership.

Including mine.

Which of Carlton's forwards (outside of their top 2) are better than:
Mihocek
McStay
Elliott
Hill
De Goey (who we expect to play predominantly forward in 2025)
Schultz
McCreery

Motlop types are solid but aren’t there yet, it’s a bias toward looking at the best 6 and assuming the rest are role players, a lot of teams have 10-12 good or star players, some great teams even had more.

Newman, Acres, Saad types are also good. But better teams have more of these types and inbetween.

 

[carlton_99]

Motlop types are solid but aren’t there yet, it’s a bias toward looking at the best 6 and assuming the rest are role players, a lot of teams have 10-12 good or star players, some great teams even had more.

Newman, Acres, Saad types are also good. But better teams have more of these types and inbetween.

No team in the competition has 10-12 star players. If we are talking about good players than Carlton have that. Cripps, Weitering, Walsh, Curnow, McKay, TDK, Cerra, Hewett, Newman, Acres, Saad, McGovern and E.Hollands are just 13 off the top of my head that are at the very least "good" by any reasonable definition of the term. Any list can improve by adding a star but there are other factors that will improve Carlton far far more than having an extra star or two.

 

[Fadge]

Motlop types are solid but aren’t there yet, it’s a bias toward looking at the best 6 and assuming the rest are role players, a lot of teams have 10-12 good or star players, some great teams even had more.

Newman, Acres, Saad types are also good. But better teams have more of these types and inbetween.

Yep.

You take any team that you believe can genuinely contend for the premiership, and pick the best 30 players from that team's listed players and Carlton's listed players.

You'll get to about 12 of the 30 being Carlton players.

I've done it for Collingwood and Hawthorn.

It would be the same with Brisbane, GWS and Geelong.

 

[Robertio]

This is spot on.

People look at their top handful of players and conclude 'Carlton have an elite list'.

They do comparisons like the post you responded to, and people state ' I have Carlton's top 5 well ahead'.

But Carlton have had the best half dozen players of any team in the league for the past 3 to 4 years, and every year they've fallen well short of premiership contention.

12 wins
13 wins
13 wins

I read earlier someone commenting on Carlton's forward line being the best in the league....

Curnow
McKay
Then who?

The contenders bat 6 to 8 deep in their forward line. I don't even know who Carlton's third best forward is. I do know their third best forward would be outside of the top 6 of any team that wants to genuinely contend for the premiership.

Including mine.

Which of Carlton's forwards (outside of their top 2) are better than:
Mihocek
McStay
Elliott
Hill
De Goey (who we expect to play predominantly forward in 2025)
Schultz
McCreery

A few old men in the Pies forward line, i like McCreery and Shultz wouldn't get a game at Carlton in 2025, Moir and E Hollands would be picked ahead of him.

 

[Robertio]

Yep.

You take any team that you believe can genuinely contend for the premiership, and pick the best 30 players from that team's listed players and Carlton's listed players.

You'll get to about 12 of the 30 being Carlton players.

I've done it for Collingwood and Hawthorn.

It would be the same with Brisbane, GWS and Geelong.

Didn't Carlton finish ahead of Collingwood?

 

[Sinjin Smith]

Yep.

You take any team that you believe can genuinely contend for the premiership, and pick the best 30 players from that team's listed players and Carlton's listed players.

You'll get to about 12 of the 30 being Carlton players.

I've done it for Collingwood and Hawthorn.

It would be the same with Brisbane, GWS and Geelong.

I'll give it a crack, only my perspective:

Cripps
Weitering
Curnow
Newman
Saad
McKay
Walsh
TDK (yep on limited form)
Acres
Fogarty
Hewett
Pitto
Cerra (got a lot to prove)

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Curious. In these two comparisons who would posters be taking?

Left or Right?



Left or Right?

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

I'll give it a crack, only my perspective:

Cripps
Weitering
Curnow
Newman
Saad
McKay
Walsh
TDK (yep on limited form)
Acres
Fogarty
Hewett
Pitto
Cerra (got a lot to prove)

Looks about right. Hawthorn have a fairly deep best 22 and Carlton has gutted some depth to provide opportunity to youngsters like Jagga, Cowan, Motlop etc in 2025.

I think if this list were to remain the case for 2025 we'd finish about similar to 2024 but from what I've seen a few of those kids are looking ready to step up to another level where they'll hopefully be considered 'good' players like Fogarty and Hewett types rather than just decent kids. Jagga looks a level above that but not expecting too much from his debut season.

Unfortunately something that is impossible to predict with certainty before the season starts given the nature of training vs actual match play vs opposition.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

Hawks by 100 goals.

 

[matey]

Looks about right. Hawthorn have a fairly deep best 22 and Carlton has gutted some depth to provide opportunity to youngsters like Jagga, Cowan, Motlop etc in 2025.

I think if this list were to remain the case for 2025 we'd finish about similar to 2024 but from what I've seen a few of those kids are looking ready to step up to another level where they'll hopefully be considered 'good' players like Fogarty and Hewett types rather than just decent kids. Jagga looks a level above that but not expecting too much from his debut season.

Unfortunately something that is impossible to predict with certainty before the season starts given the nature of training vs actual match play vs opposition.

Fair enough impossible to predict re the Blues but off the top of my head on the Hawks you have been clear that they will miss finals, at best have an average midfield, Newk ain’t that good etc ……. but like you say let’s see how it pans out this season vs real opposition.

 

[WalshistheGOAT]

Fair enough impossible to predict re the Blues but off the top of my head on the Hawks you have been clear that they will miss finals, at best have an average midfield, Newk ain’t that good etc ……. but like you say let’s see how it pans out this season vs real opposition.

Yes and I stand by that I think they will. The top end of the Hawks and the lack of depth beyond their best 22 are my concerns.

The Blues flaws I am all too familiar with, but I think our floor is higher than the Hawks.

See what happens in 2025 though, Hawks being arrogant flogs are good for the drama and entertainment regardless of whether they go well or not.

 

[peetoo]

No team in the competition has 10-12 star players. If we are talking about good players than Carlton have that. Cripps, Weitering, Walsh, Curnow, McKay, TDK, Cerra, Hewett, Newman, Acres, Saad, McGovern and E.Hollands are just 13 off the top of my head that are at the very least "good" by any reasonable definition of the term. Any list can improve by adding a star but there are other factors that will improve Carlton far far more than having an extra star or two.

When this was being discussed earlier, I noted that cats 2020 had 11 a grade according to draft guru, the dodgy ones being Harley, Egan, Mooney, Milburn

But then Mackie Selwood Chapman were rated b+

 

[Mr Meow]

Yes and I stand by that I think they will. The top end of the Hawks and the lack of depth beyond their best 22 are my concerns.

The Blues flaws I am all too familiar with, but I think our floor is higher than the Hawks.

See what happens in 2025 though, Hawks being arrogant flogs are good for the drama and entertainment regardless of whether they go well or not.

For a second I thought you meant their supporters!

 

[Mr Meow]

When this was being discussed earlier, I noted that cats 2020 had 11 a grade according to draft guru, the dodgy ones being Harley, Egan, Mooney, Milburn

They were all in their 40s in 2020 from memory, so I agree that was surprising.