I think the list that really matters is assessing the 30 plus age (in 2025) bracket and how important these players are to each team:
Dangerfield
Stanley 33
Cam Guthrie 32
Atkins 30
Stewart 31 - Sicily 29
Cameron 31 - Gunston 32
Blicavs 33 - Frost 31
Duncan 33 - Amon 29
Bews 30 - Impey 29
Rohan 33 - Bruest 33
You can argue that Dangerfield, Stewart and Cameron are actually Geelong's three best players. Blicvas is probably still a top ten player for Geelong
Amon and Sicily both make Hawthorn's top ten, with Impey in or out depending how you'd rate it. Sicily would make Hawthorn's top 3.
Frosty, Breust and Gunston aren't in there, with the latter two likely not in the team except as subs.
With Battle and Barrass coming Impey perhaps slides just out of the top ten also.
This is where the difference is. The cliff is coming for the evergreens, though Cameron and Stewart still look sharp. But things can change quickly once you get to 32 as Breust and Gunston found out over the last 2 years.
There's not much there for Geelong in the upper echelon of the playing group in the 28 or older bracket outside of the group listed above.
My guess is that by the end of next year Dangerfield won't be playing midfield, and will be in a pocket. Big call for the team's best mid, but he's lost a little already, and the nature of that position isn't particularly forgiving to older players.
Breust and Gunston are back again next year only because they're effectively playing coaches. We lacked experience to give our side composure at times in 2024. We still need them on that front, and they both contributed well at times. But I wouldn't be surprised to see retirements from either before the end of the season.
Interestingly both were usurped by 19 years olds in Dear and Watson this year, and those two players are both likely top ten for us based on this year's performance.
+ 30 is a one sided age bracket at this stage, and reliance on players in this group puts the list on a little shakier ground that this year's performance might suggest. It's very different from 2022, when most of these guys were in their prime or thereabouts. The problem is going to be more pronounced when they retire, because the gap to the next bracket of top ten players is significant.
I had to include Amon and Sicily, and Atkins just to flesh things out.
Dangerfield
Stanley 33
Cam Guthrie 32
Atkins 30
Stewart 31 - Sicily 29
Cameron 31 - Gunston 32
Blicavs 33 - Frost 31
Duncan 33 - Amon 29
Bews 30 - Impey 29
Rohan 33 - Bruest 33
You can argue that Dangerfield, Stewart and Cameron are actually Geelong's three best players. Blicvas is probably still a top ten player for Geelong
Amon and Sicily both make Hawthorn's top ten, with Impey in or out depending how you'd rate it. Sicily would make Hawthorn's top 3.
Frosty, Breust and Gunston aren't in there, with the latter two likely not in the team except as subs.
With Battle and Barrass coming Impey perhaps slides just out of the top ten also.
This is where the difference is. The cliff is coming for the evergreens, though Cameron and Stewart still look sharp. But things can change quickly once you get to 32 as Breust and Gunston found out over the last 2 years.
There's not much there for Geelong in the upper echelon of the playing group in the 28 or older bracket outside of the group listed above.
My guess is that by the end of next year Dangerfield won't be playing midfield, and will be in a pocket. Big call for the team's best mid, but he's lost a little already, and the nature of that position isn't particularly forgiving to older players.
Breust and Gunston are back again next year only because they're effectively playing coaches. We lacked experience to give our side composure at times in 2024. We still need them on that front, and they both contributed well at times. But I wouldn't be surprised to see retirements from either before the end of the season.
Interestingly both were usurped by 19 years olds in Dear and Watson this year, and those two players are both likely top ten for us based on this year's performance.
+ 30 is a one sided age bracket at this stage, and reliance on players in this group puts the list on a little shakier ground that this year's performance might suggest. It's very different from 2022, when most of these guys were in their prime or thereabouts. The problem is going to be more pronounced when they retire, because the gap to the next bracket of top ten players is significant.
I had to include Amon and Sicily, and Atkins just to flesh things out.
It's a very good question, and both clubs have players at similar levels, across areas of the ground.
Of those in a similar age bracket:
Holmes - Day
Stengle - Moore
Humphries - D'Ambrosio
J Henry - Scrimshaw
Dempsey - Macdonald
Neale - Dear
Stewart - Sicily
Clark - McKenzie
Z Guthrie - Hardwick
SDK - Weddle*
*Stretch I know with Weddle marked for more time up the ground, but just trying to find comparisons.
Both clubs posses imposing small forward ranks, and would arguably be #1 & #2 in those areas across the league. It's pick your poison really.
Wizard, Macdonald, Ginnivan, & Moore - Mannagh, Close, Stengle, Miers.
Where Hawthorn really come out ahead is their prime aged midfielders for mine.
If we're prepared to call Day/Holmes a wash, it still doesn't change that Newcombe, Worpel, & Nash is just simply better than Bruhn & Bowes.
Bailey Smith could potentially make that look a bit more even, but it still needs one more IMO.
Not to mention Meek, who is just miles ahead of the corpse of Stanley and the still-raw Conway.
At this stage I'm inclined to say Hawthorn. Love what Mitchell has done, and the list looks primed for an extended tilt.
Geelong are 1-2 years away from really beginning that IMO. We need a couple more pre-seasons for the u-23s to really take over completely, and a couple more trades/FA's for mine.
All in all though, expect to see these two clubs meet in finals at some point over the next few years.
Just seems like fate yet again.