Who's closer to a flag, Fremantle or West Coast?

[Yeti]

Inflationary affect has kicked in now with the change in draft trade dynamics.

Have you seen hill play?

What are these inflationary affects you speak of? And are they measurable? I don't believe any club has done anything close to trading picks 2 + 5 for pick 1. Again, look at the mini-draft, O'Meara was so highly rated GWS tried to get the AFL to change the rules so the could keep him!

I have not seen Hill play but I have read enough to know that people are fapping over him uncontrollably, 12 months out from the draft day. In between now and then anything could happen.

Let's look at the superdraft of 2003 as a good example of highly celebrated incoming talent.
Pick 1 - Luke Hodge
Pick 2 - Luke Ball
Pick 3 - Chris Judd

Are any of these 3 players worth 2 top 5 picks before they have even attended a single AFL training session? No, because even with talent as good as they turned out to be it is too much of a risk trading picks 2 and 5 for a single player.

How many number 1 picks turn out to be the best player in the draft? Few, if any do. Even Luke Hodge is not a clear standout as he was drafted in the same draft as Judd.

If you look at the top 5 picks of the last 5 drafts without mini-draft picks they are:
2017
Cameron Rayner
Andrew Brayshaw
Paddy Dow
Luke Davies-Uniacke
Adam Cerra

2016
Andrew McGrath
Tim Taranto
Hugh McCluggage
Ben Ainsworth
Will Setterfield

2015
Jacob Weitering
Josh Shache
Callum Mills
Clayton Oliver
Dary Parish

2014
Paddy McCartin
Christian Petracca
Angus Brayshaw
Jarrod Pickett
Jordan De Goey

2013
Tom Boyd
Josh Kelly
Jack Billings
Marcus Bontempelli
Kade Kolodjashnij

Again, alongside the 2001 "Superdraft" none of those players are worth picks 2 and 5 on their own. Regardless of how highly rated the talent is the number 1 pick is not likely to be the best player of his draft. Hill very well may have gone pick 1, but to say with certain that the Fremantle Football club would give up picks 2 and 5 for him is just ridiculous.

Even if you temper that and say, 2+5 for 1+10 I think you keep 2+5. Having two top 5 draft picks can set up your midfield OR your KP stocks for a decade.

The hyperbole around the drafts depth or quality are just that. Anyone saying West Coast has shot themselves in the foot trading out a first round pick from next years draft is just hoping that they nosedive down the ladder and look silly. But if they have their strategy right then it could very well give them the flag shot they need to have as NN gets older.

 

[bh90210fan]

And 2015? Let's face we haven't been great in the last two years , But anybody who thinks that is the status quo is in for a rude awakening

Yeah you guys went from 4 losses in 2015 to 4 wins in 2016. Talk about a rude awakening

 

[StCicatriz]

What are these inflationary affects you speak of? And are they measurable? I don't believe any club has done anything close to trading picks 2 + 5 for pick 1. Again, look at the mini-draft, O'Meara was so highly rated GWS tried to get the AFL to change the rules so the could keep him!

I have not seen Hill play but I have read enough to know that people are fapping over him uncontrollably, 12 months out from the draft day. In between now and then anything could happen.

Let's look at the superdraft of 2003 as a good example of highly celebrated incoming talent.
Pick 1 - Luke Hodge
Pick 2 - Luke Ball
Pick 3 - Chris Judd

Are any of these 3 players worth 2 top 5 picks before they have even attended a single AFL training session? No, because even with talent as good as they turned out to be it is too much of a risk trading picks 2 and 5 for a single player.

How many number 1 picks turn out to be the best player in the draft? Few, if any do. Even Luke Hodge is not a clear standout as he was drafted in the same draft as Judd.

If you look at the top 5 picks of the last 5 drafts without mini-draft picks they are:
2017
Cameron Rayner
Andrew Brayshaw
Paddy Dow
Luke Davies-Uniacke
Adam Cerra

2016
Andrew McGrath
Tim Taranto
Hugh McCluggage
Ben Ainsworth
Will Setterfield

2015
Jacob Weitering
Josh Shache
Callum Mills
Clayton Oliver
Dary Parish

2014
Paddy McCartin
Christian Petracca
Angus Brayshaw
Jarrod Pickett
Jordan De Goey

2013
Tom Boyd
Josh Kelly
Jack Billings
Marcus Bontempelli
Kade Kolodjashnij

Again, alongside the 2001 "Superdraft" none of those players are worth picks 2 and 5 on their own. Regardless of how highly rated the talent is the number 1 pick is not likely to be the best player of his draft. Hill very well may have gone pick 1, but to say with certain that the Fremantle Football club would give up picks 2 and 5 for him is just ridiculous.

Even if you temper that and say, 2+5 for 1+10 I think you keep 2+5. Having two top 5 draft picks can set up your midfield OR your KP stocks for a decade.

The hyperbole around the drafts depth or quality are just that. Anyone saying West Coast has shot themselves in the foot trading out a first round pick from next years draft is just hoping that they nosedive down the ladder and look silly. But if they have their strategy right then it could very well give them the flag shot they need to have as NN gets older.

So there's hyperbole around a draft and player that you admit you haven't seen? At least make an effort to watch the talent and form a judgement on it.

With so many underagers doing very well against much older counterparts that can only mean one of two things:
1) the 17 years olds really are that good
2) the 2017 draft class was a really poor one.

Now to answer your question on why GWS didn't trade 2 first rounder for JOM is because it was a completely different set of circumstances:
1) the 2017 draft where I suggested trading picks 2 and 5 was much softer at the top end. The 2011 draft class was a lot stronger,
2) GWS needed immediate access to the too end of the draft to pretty much build the entirety of their list,
3) GWS had a clear strategy of volume of first rounders over quantity with the idea that not all the players would stay but they would be able to trade them for more first rounders,
4) there was no ability to trade future draft picks which is when the inflationary affect kicked in.

If you're not an avid draft follower or watch any of the Colts then I can understand how you might find the statement I made shocking. But if you have followed it closely over the say the last 10 years you would see the softness at the top end of the 2017 draft and how great some of the 2018 prospects are.

Also the 2003 comparison is a strange one. For starters you got the wrong draft year. It was 2001 but in any case. You would need to consider the 2000 draft. As thats what I am suggesting. A club trading out of the previous year to target one of the available prospects in the following year. Given future trading was not available it was not possible. Also I didn't follow the draft closely then to understand if the same scenario applies. Did you? You're also comparing it to a time where the thinking on rebuilding your list was completely different with not as many avenues to bringing in talent to offset trading out an extra first.

 

[SHill Shall]

Yeah you guys went from 4 losses in 2015 to 4 wins in 2016. Talk about a rude awakening

So one more year of just 4 wins to equal that spoon run you guys went on: 2008 4 wins, 2009 8 wins and 2010 4 wins.

I’ll bet the house that we don’t manage only 4 wins this year.

 

[Fyfster]

And only two years after winning a flag, Now that's a rude awakening

 

[kranky al]

So one more year of just 4 wins to equal that spoon run you guys went on: 2008 4 wins, 2009 8 wins and 2010 4 wins.

I’ll bet the house that we don’t manage only 4 wins this year.

A fully operational death fyfestar would have to put the kybosh on a season as bad as last.

 

[Yeti]

So there's hyperbole around a draft and player that you admit you haven't seen? At least make an effort to watch the talent and form a judgement on it.

Don't put words on my screen, I said drafts as in ALL DRAFTS. I have zero expertise in previous under 18 talent so why would watching some now give me any insight with nothing to compare it to? I don't need to be a judge on underage talent to be able to formulate a clear and evidence based argument that no 17 year old is worth 2 top 5 draft picks.

If you're not an avid draft follower or watch any of the Colts then I can understand how you might find the statement I made shocking. But if you have followed it closely over the say the last 10 years you would see the softness at the top end of the 2017 draft and how great some of the 2018 prospects are.

Again, I refer to my point about touting talent 2 years out from a draft. I don't find your statement shocking, I find it completely without fact. You are saying that not just any club, but that the Fremantle Football Club, would have given up picks 2 & 5 for a 17 year old (very talented) kid. Anything could happen in the next 12 months that could see him slip down the rankings.

You have ZERO evidence that FFC would do this, you have no example of any club coming close to this.

Also the 2003 comparison is a strange one. For starters you got the wrong draft year. It was 2001 but in any case. You would need to consider the 2000 draft. As thats what I am suggesting. A club trading out of the previous year to target one of the available prospects in the following year. Given future trading was not available it was not possible. Also I didn't follow the draft closely then to understand if the same scenario applies. Did you? You're also comparing it to a time where the thinking on rebuilding your list was completely different with not as many avenues to bringing in talent to offset trading out an extra first.

You know I meant 01, I even marked it correctly down the bottom.

If you want to look at the the 2000 AFL Draft for comparison it went:
1 - Nick Riewoldt
2 - Justin Koschitzke
3 - Alan Didak
4 - Luke Livingdton
5 - Andrew McDougall

Even with drafting being as amateur as it was back then I don't see any club giving up 2 & 5 in that draft for a shot at Judd, Hodge or Ball. Of course I didn't follow the draft closely back then, I don't do it now! The same principle applies, NO 17 Year old who is touted as the most talented kid in next years draft is worth 2 top 5 draft picks.

If you have some actual evidence that Fremantle would do this I would love to hear it. Or is this like when Weller was on his way to St Kilda where you consider your thoughts as facts?

 

[salim malik]

How old will the following be in 2022:
Fyfe
Walters
Neale
Stephen hill
Brad hill
Bennell
Hamling
Wilson
Kersten

With the following retired:
Johnson
Mundy
Ballantyne
Sandilands

Freo and West Coast are both seasons closer to a flag than the Saints. Its a sad indictment on the Saints incompetence as a professional modern football club. HINT If I was a Saints supporter I would spend my days worrying about the Saints future and not obsessing about Freo.

 

[blitzer]

What are these inflationary affects you speak of? And are they measurable? I don't believe any club has done anything close to trading picks 2 + 5 for pick 1. Again, look at the mini-draft, O'Meara was so highly rated GWS tried to get the AFL to change the rules so the could keep him!

I have not seen Hill play but I have read enough to know that people are fapping over him uncontrollably, 12 months out from the draft day. In between now and then anything could happen.

Let's look at the superdraft of 2003 as a good example of highly celebrated incoming talent.
Pick 1 - Luke Hodge
Pick 2 - Luke Ball
Pick 3 - Chris Judd

Are any of these 3 players worth 2 top 5 picks before they have even attended a single AFL training session? No, because even with talent as good as they turned out to be it is too much of a risk trading picks 2 and 5 for a single player.

How many number 1 picks turn out to be the best player in the draft? Few, if any do. Even Luke Hodge is not a clear standout as he was drafted in the same draft as Judd.

If you look at the top 5 picks of the last 5 drafts without mini-draft picks they are:
2017
Cameron Rayner
Andrew Brayshaw
Paddy Dow
Luke Davies-Uniacke
Adam Cerra

2016
Andrew McGrath
Tim Taranto
Hugh McCluggage
Ben Ainsworth
Will Setterfield

2015
Jacob Weitering
Josh Shache
Callum Mills
Clayton Oliver
Dary Parish

2014
Paddy McCartin
Christian Petracca
Angus Brayshaw
Jarrod Pickett
Jordan De Goey

2013
Tom Boyd
Josh Kelly
Jack Billings
Marcus Bontempelli
Kade Kolodjashnij

Again, alongside the 2001 "Superdraft" none of those players are worth picks 2 and 5 on their own. Regardless of how highly rated the talent is the number 1 pick is not likely to be the best player of his draft. Hill very well may have gone pick 1, but to say with certain that the Fremantle Football club would give up picks 2 and 5 for him is just ridiculous.

Personally I reckon any of Bontempelli, Josh Kelly and Clayton Oliver would be pretty close to being worth picks 2 and 5 on their own. Certainly I reckon there would be a few clubs that would make that trade (if they ever had the picks to use).

 

[StCicatriz]

Don't put words on my screen, I said drafts as in ALL DRAFTS. I have zero expertise in previous under 18 talent so why would watching some now give me any insight with nothing to compare it to? I don't need to be a judge on underage talent to be able to formulate a clear and evidence based argument that no 17 year old is worth 2 top 5 draft picks.



Again, I refer to my point about touting talent 2 years out from a draft. I don't find your statement shocking, I find it completely without fact. You are saying that not just any club, but that the Fremantle Football Club, would have given up picks 2 & 5 for a 17 year old (very talented) kid. Anything could happen in the next 12 months that could see him slip down the rankings.

You have ZERO evidence that FFC would do this, you have no example of any club coming close to this.




You know I meant 01, I even marked it correctly down the bottom.

If you want to look at the the 2000 AFL Draft for comparison it went:
1 - Nick Riewoldt
2 - Justin Koschitzke
3 - Alan Didak
4 - Luke Livingdton
5 - Andrew McDougall

Even with drafting being as amateur as it was back then I don't see any club giving up 2 & 5 in that draft for a shot at Judd, Hodge or Ball. Of course I didn't follow the draft closely back then, I don't do it now! The same principle applies, NO 17 Year old who is touted as the most talented kid in next years draft is worth 2 top 5 draft picks.

If you have some actual evidence that Fremantle would do this I would love to hear it. Or is this like when Weller was on his way to St Kilda where you consider your thoughts as facts?

It was my opinion they would. I never said it was fact. Just like it's your opinion they wouldn't. Do you think every post in this thread is claimed as fact?

My comment on Weller was that he never wanted to go to freo. Said that on draft night. Also said he was a flight risk and the selection was a mistake.

I then like others had first hand knowledge he was homesick in 2015 and preferred a trade to the saints. That changed. The recent weller to st Kilda talk was more us having a lend at the overly sensitive freo fans on here. They're so easily triggered.

This year in particular was gold. Started on our board that he wanted to leave and come play with his brother. Before the day was out you had freo posters livid with what our board had said. Lame insults thrown around. My favourite was how Lachie would never leave. Was contracted for another year and absolutely loved freo.

 

[StCicatriz]

Personally I reckon any of Bontempelli, Josh Kelly and Clayton Oliver would be pretty close to being worth picks 2 and 5 on their own. Certainly I reckon there would be a few clubs that would make that trade (if they ever had the picks to use).

Exactly now that future trading has had an inflationary affect on the trade transactions you will find clubs becoming more and more open to trading multiple high end first rounders on the draft.

The reason for this is once that future trading was looking like coming in clubs started to invest more in watching the u17s. As they needed to understand the pool coming through in greater detail to understand what they were trading.

This didn't occur prior to future trading. It was more keeping an eye on what was coming through but it wasn't happening in the detail it is now. For example the hawks have a dedicated team to the u17s.

 

[StCicatriz]

Freo and West Coast are both seasons closer to a flag than the Saints. Its a sad indictment on the Saints incompetence as a professional modern football club. HINT If I was a Saints supporter I would spend my days worrying about the Saints future and not obsessing about Freo.

Of course west coast are closer to a flag than us

But freo are not and will never be unless they actually win one. Which given their history is probably unlikely

 

[Fyfster]

Of course west coast are closer to a flag than us

But freo are not and will never be unless they actually win one. Which given their history is probably unlikely

You haven't really won one since it was a national comp either , 66 is a long time ago

 

[Jiggyman]

You haven't really won one since it was a national comp either , 66 is a long time ago

Yeah, but you haven't won one.

 

[The Gtrain]

And only two years after winning a flag, Now that's a rude awakening

It was and to be honest I found it very difficult to have confidence in us winning games for many years after those bad years. Even when we got to the GF, we didn't have the quality to win, we would compete well, then just get blown off the park! WCE is a strong club but the list is not one that oozes immediate premiership. NN makes us a much better side. If we have a firing JK, NN, gov, Shuey, Jetta, Gaff, Yeo, Hurn, evening Darling we will win the majority of our games this year we just don't have that match winner like Judd use to for us. Lets hope gov and gaff sort the contract stuff out early on rather than letting it weigh them down. If they do delay lets hope they have great years to elevate their worth if that's their MO.

 

[kranky al]

Hugh McCluggage

Surely this is a made up name

An april fools joke that got out of hand?


You cant becalled mcbloodyluggage

What next?

Mcsuitcase?

Mcportmanteau?

 

[estibador]

This year in particular was gold. Started on our board that he wanted to leave and come play with his brother. Before the day was out you had freo posters livid with what our board had said. Lame insults thrown around. My favourite was how Lachie would never leave. Was contracted for another year and absolutely loved freo.

My favourite part was how even with you having his brother to use as bait, a player would still rather go to a basketcase in a non-AFL state than ever move to the Saints.

Oh, and no one gets 'livid' about Saints supporters thinking every player wants to play for them, the mass delusion is a running joke amongst other clubs' supporters.

 

[Fyfster]

Yeah, but you haven't won one.

No shit sherlock (only a coaster) quoting the f****ing obvious

 

[StCicatriz]

My favourite part was how even with you having his brother to use as bait, a player would still rather go to a basketcase in a non-AFL state than ever move to the Saints.

Oh, and no one gets 'livid' about Saints supporters thinking every player wants to play for them, the mass delusion is a running joke amongst other clubs' supporters.

Saints were never gonna pay him that much. For that much money I'd be happy to play for em

As for the livid comments you must not read your board then. The lols had on Weller and fyfe were a thing of beauty. Just so so so much insecurity in your supporters with your club.

 

[StCicatriz]

You haven't really won one since it was a national comp either , 66 is a long time ago

Still a flag.

So therefore we are closer as it's actually something that has occurred.

No one can say if or when freo will get their inaugural flag. It's an unknown. Therefore you cannot be closer to it.

 

[estibador]

As for the livid comments you must not read your board then. The lols had on Weller and fyfe were a thing of beauty. Just so so so much insecurity in your supporters with your club.

I read it daily, about the same as you with your obsession.

I think you're mistaking derision for anger.

 

[Fyfster]

Still a flag.

So therefore we are closer as it's actually something that has occurred.

No one can say if or when freo will get their inaugural flag. It's an unknown. Therefore you cannot be closer to it.

strange logic

 

[salim malik]

Of course west coast are closer to a flag than us

But freo are not and will never be unless they actually win one. Which given their history is probably unlikely

Still a flag.

So therefore we are closer as it's actually something that has occurred.

No one can say if or when freo will get their inaugural flag. It's an unknown. Therefore you cannot be closer to it.

VFL is not the AFL and even if you do count the VFL(which is only a Vic thing) the Saints are the club at the moment with the longest history of not winning a flag. 52 years is a long time between drinks. Given the 52 years in the wilderness by the Saints the probability of them winning a flag is next to nil. Like I said forget the Freo obsession and worry about where your club is heading.

 

[Boppo]

Of course west coast are closer to a flag than us

But freo are not and will never be unless they actually win one. Which given their history is probably unlikely

We've not won a flag and neither have you. 1966 was the VFL, a state league. If you want to compare, Fremantle won the state league (WAFA) eight times between 1886 and 1898.

 

[StCicatriz]

strange logic

It's not strange logic at all. It's fact. I would have thought it's pretty straight forward logic but you're now the 2nd freo fan to challenge it in this thread.

Can you tell me when freo will win a flag? If you cannot tell me that how can you determine how close you are to it compared to other clubs?