Why do people think the Pies are so far ahead?

[Basti28]

the reason they appear in front is 2 fold:

1. they have lost nothing. and appear to have topped up with taz & krak

2. the remainder of the top 4 look a bit past it. getting older, losing players etc feeling is that WB, Geelong & saints might be due to start regressing


doesn't mean someone won't emerge but the existent power clubs seem vulnerable.

Agree.

We could also probably factor in:

3) The up and coming sides still look to be 18-24 months away from catching the Pies.

The cards have fallen very nicely for The Pies at present.

I do think The Dogs have topped up nicely and improved their list. Hawthorn can do anything on it's day, and Freo have the core in place to become a contender. Collingwoods immediate threat will come from these three clubs.

 

[PieNSauce]

Agree.

We could also probably factor in:

3) The up and coming sides still look to be 18-24 months away from catching the Pies.

The cards have fallen very nicely for The Pies at present.

I do think The Dogs have topped up nicely and improved their list. Hawthorn can do anything on it's day, and Freo have the core in place to become a contender. Collingwoods immediate threat will come from these three clubs.

I also agree to an extent but I think it really does ignore the fact that we have all seen sides dominate in one season only to fade into insignificance the next. That's not to say I think they will but I do think there are enough factors to suggest it could happen. In particular, and I have already said it elsewhere, young players are notorious for haveing break out seasons early and then fading for a couple of years. Daisy is the perfect example of that and from where I sit we have plenty of potential "Daisy's" in our side. While I don't consider them to be superstars, I saw Beams, Sidebottom and McCaffer do things this year that suggests huge promise but who is to say they won't have to deal with significantly more attention next year or that they won't go precisely the way Thomas did after his first break out season. I guess all I'm saying is that potential is one thing, realisation is another entirely.

 

[Daics35Marvel]

no team has won after drawing a grand final the year before.

This is a very good point and one that doesn't get a lot of credit on these boards. It's colloquially known as the "curse of the drawn Grannie" and it's just one of a number of hoodoos that the Pies will need to break if they want to go back-to-back. Others include:

• No team has gone back-to-back in a season in which the competition has expanded from 16 to 17 teams.
• No team has gone back-to-back the year after drafting Kirk Ugle.
• No team has gone back-to-back the year after West Coast won the wooden spoon.

Lots of factors working against the Pies would suggest that its unlikely to happen.

 

[Vinnie Vegas]

Collingwood played the other teams from the top four 10 times in total, and came out of it with a record of 7-2-1, with an average margin of 39 points in the wins.

We played the teams from the rest of the top eight 6 times in total, and came out of it with a record of 5-1, with an average margin of 45 points in the wins.

We played the teams from the bottom eight 10 times in total, and came out of it with a record of 8-1-1, with an average margin of 53 points in the wins.

In total, our record was 20-4-2, and including finals, our percentage was 144.29. The only team we failed to defeat in 2010 was Brisbane.

Just in the finals, our record was 3-0-1, with a percentage of 160.91

So it's fair to say we had a pretty good season. I don't think that we're being rated based on being young, or because we happened to win the flag - It's because over the course of the entire 2010 season and through the finals we demonstrated that we were the best side in the competition.

Obviously, you're going to rate the proven best side in the competition from the previous year as the best side in the competition going into the next year unless they have lost some of their best players. Not only has Collingwood not lost anyone from our Premiership 22, but we've added players that most people will agree have a good shot at pushing into our 22, making our lineup stronger.

People like to bring up the GF draw as an example of why we're not that far in front, but if we beat St Kilda by 48 points the previous time we played them (while missing Travis Cloke and Nick Maxwell), and beat them by 56 points the next time we played them, statistical variation would suggest that St Kilda were very, very lucky on that day to be that close.

 

[PieNSauce]

This is a very good point and one that doesn't get a lot of credit on these boards. It's colloquially known as the "curse of the drawn Grannie" and it's just one of a number of hoodoos that the Pies will need to break if they want to go back-to-back. Others include:

• No team has gone back-to-back in a season in which the competition has expanded from 16 to 17 teams.
• No team has gone back-to-back the year after drafting Kirk Ugle.
• No team has gone back-to-back the year after West Coast won the wooden spoon.

Lots of factors working against the Pies would suggest that its unlikely to happen.

Don't forget that no team has gone back to back in the year after a female has been voted Prime Minister. I would have thought that would be top of the list.

 

[jonbe54]

Pies have to walk the walk but honestly some posters are simply emoting rather than reasoning. That most on the main boards have an axe to grind is a given, but FFS

No team has won a granny next year after playing in a drawn granny the previous year?? Does your mummy know you are posting with the big boys?????

 

[Daics35Marvel]

Don't forget that no team has gone back to back in the year after a female has been voted Prime Minister. I would have thought that would be top of the list.

Very, very good point. How I forgot old "Julia's jinx" is beyond me. So many factors working against the Pies it's not funny.

 

[Scodog10]

To answer the OP I don't think we are that far ahead and the perception by some is probably based on 2 points. First of all we beat the other top 4 teams by a combined total of 160 points throughout the finals series (even though we were lucky to survive the draw with so many players playing poorly). The second is the belief by many that those 3 teams have either plateaued or are about to reach the decline and that Collingwood may well improve further next year.

From there the next greatest challengers are probably a Hawthorn team that has won about 22-23 of there past 45 games, Fremantle who have never won a final outside of W.A and Carlton who haven't won a final in a decade. Collingwood aren't that far ahead atm, but if they do improve in the 2011 season they would go in as heavy favourites to go back to back and deservedly so.

 

[damuzzdu]

Very, very good point. How I forgot old "Julia's jinx" is beyond me. So many factors working against the Pies it's not funny.

You could also add no team has gone back-to-back after having 2 draws in the previous year,

No team has gone back-to-back with same 4 teams in the last 4 for 2 years in a row,

...but the big one...no team has gone back-to-back after the Govt dumped its 1st term PM (Mr 73% in Nov 09). The Rudd factor will working big against Collingwood.

 

[spiraldiver]

It's not so much a matter of the Pies being so far ahead but of their closest challengers possibly falling out of contention. St Kilda, Geelong and the Bulldogs have been up there for a while now and there's no guarantee they'll be good enough to challenge for a flag next year. In this regard, Collingwood has timed its run to perfection.

 

[Sttew]

Dominance is short lived - Collingwood is now the hunted.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

Collingwood will lose nobody from the 2010 premiership side. Plus they have picked up Tarrant and Krak who may force out two premiership players.......potentially Blair and Goldsack. So in essence we will be stronger in 2011 than in 2010.

As has mentioned, previous teams lose important players.ie Hawthorn lost almost a quarter of the team that won them the 08 flag.

Geelong have already lost their premiership captain (Harley) and best player G.Ablett.

Saints, not losing anybody of significance but they have not added anything to their list either.

Dogs, lost some of their champions, but they were already passed it in 2010. Getting a fit Cooney and Higgins should improve them......but enough??

Will any of the up and coming sides be able to take a HUGE leap....Melbourne, Freo, North or Carlton......doubtful.

Why? your team took a HUGE leap in 2010 you lost a final to the cats by 12 goals in 09 fast forward 1 year later you beat them by a comfortable margin.

Fact is even the mighty Geelong couldnt go back to back a lot can happen in one season.

 

[magilla]

Who is going to beat us?

That is why everyone thinks we are so far ahead. There is no obvious challenger

 

[PieBeast]

It's not so much a matter of the Pies being so far ahead but of their closest challengers possibly falling out of contention. St Kilda, Geelong and the Bulldogs have been up there for a while now and there's no guarantee they'll be good enough to challenge for a flag next year. In this regard, Collingwood has timed its run to perfection.

Very shrewd post, kudos.

 

[Pie eyed]

I saw Beams, Sidebottom and McCaffer do things this year that suggests huge promise but who is to say they won't have to deal with significantly more attention next year I guess all I'm saying is that potential is one thing, realisation is another entirely.

I had this discussion with a few friends and it does usually occur that a player in a very young side who dominates then is given more attention.
Given Swan, Pendlebury, Wellingham, Thomas, Shaw, O'Brien, Dawes and Cloke will already be demanding even more attention, who is going to up the attention on the young turks? Then when you give them attention who gets Tarrant and Krakoer?
It's not as if they did not have opponents his season.

I think Collingwood have burgeoning talent in spades in the current 22 on every line with Dick, Davis and a brigade of young fellas already pushing for senior selection, even before we drafted anyone.

That said having a quiet year is usually going to happen in the second year not necessarily after a breakout year.

So Blairy may have a quiet one, everyone else is in their second year I think.

 

[Lord_Travis]

Collingwood are the reigning premiers, and are obviously a very good side. They deserve the right to be called the best at the moment.
Though there might not be an obvious challenger right now, let's all wait and see what happens next year. There is ALWAYS some surprises, and as has been said even the dominant Geelong couldnt go back to back. And who would have thought Freo would rise so far up the ladder last year.
It will be interesting to see how teams go next year with byes, a new AFL team, and further development.

Remember once the 2011 season starts, 2010 and all preceeding years are irrelevant.

 

[jimmy35]

Dominance is short lived - Collingwood is now the hunted.

Collingwood are always the hunted.

Injuries and hunger, as always, will play a big role in any back to back quest.

 

[Timmy from Thomastown]

Superior drafting and trading, and more drafting is the reason we are so far ahead

Comparing Collingwood and StKilda 2005-2010

New players drafted 2005-2010
Coll 26, StK 21
Still on list from the 2005-2009 drafts
Coll 14, StK 10
Recycled players drafted in 2005-2010
Coll 4 StK 10
Still on list (2005-2009)
Coll 2 StK 5
Traded players in
Coll 6 StK 10
Still there
Coll 4 StK 5
Traded players out
Coll 5 StK 1
Current number of promoted rookies on list
Coll 8 StK approx 4

Theres some telling stats there. We draft more kids, have more success through the rookie list, we are more selective with our recycling programme, and we are prepared to trade players away. The only player StKilda has traded away in the past six trade periods has been Xavier Clarke, and it took Crazy Vossy to agree to that one. And they used that pick to draft Jesse Smith who didnt play a game and retired.

 

[The Finger]

Superior drafting and trading, and more drafting is the reason we are so far ahead

Comparing Collingwood and StKilda 2005-2010

New players drafted 2005-2010
Coll 26, StK 21
Still on list from the 2005-2009 drafts
Coll 14, StK 10
Recycled players drafted in 2005-2010
Coll 4 StK 10
Still on list (2005-2009)
Coll 2 StK 5
Traded players in
Coll 6 StK 10
Still there
Coll 4 StK 5
Traded players out
Coll 5 StK 1
Current number of promoted rookies on list
Coll 8 StK approx 4

Theres some telling stats there. We draft more kids, have more success through the rookie list, we are more selective with our recycling programme, and we are prepared to trade players away. The only player StKilda has traded away in the past six trade periods has been Xavier Clarke, and it took Crazy Vossy to agree to that one. And they used that pick to draft Jesse Smith who didnt play a game and retired.

This is the most ridiculous thing ever posted. You were prepared to trade players away as you drafted poorly would be the most valid point.

 

[E Shed]

I don't think there is a whole lot of difference between how Collingwood play and how we tried to play this year. We just didn't have the depth to sustain it as vital players like, Mayne, Ballantyne, Tarrant, Barlow & eventually Sandi all succumbed to injury and fatigue. Even the mighty Pav was a shadow of how he started the year come finals.

Even when we were fully fit we still got trounced on our home deck, mainly because Collingwood's list is stronger and more even over the ground and I think their advanced Sports Science programme gave them the edge above most other teams over similar talent.

The other main factor, purely from a Freo perspective is, even if we get our list up to their standard and improve our fitness that couple of percent, don't see how we can topple them on the biggest stage given they generally play their last 6 or more games there and don't leave Melbourne for the 1/4 of the season.

I know it can be done but gee it's going to be tough. I have massive respect for The Eagles teams of the early 90's who did it under even more adverse conditions.

 

[CAS79]

I don't think there is a whole lot of difference between how Collingwood play and how we tried to play this year. We just didn't have the depth to sustain it as vital players like, Mayne, Ballantyne, Tarrant, Barlow & eventually Sandi all succumbed to injury and fatigue. Even the mighty Pav was a shadow of how he started the year come finals.

Even when we were fully fit we still got trounced on our home deck, mainly because Collingwood's list is stronger and more even over the ground and I think their advanced Sports Science programme gave them the edge above most other teams over similar talent.

The other main factor, purely from a Freo perspective is, even if we get our list up to their standard and improve our fitness that couple of percent, don't see how we can topple them on the biggest stage given they generally play their last 6 or more games there and don't leave Melbourne for the 1/4 of the season.

I know it can be done but gee it's going to be tough. I have massive respect for The Eagles teams of the early 90's who did it under even more adverse conditions.

Excellent post in the main.

Fremantle have the running game and the foot skills to break through Collingwood's great press. By adding another forward you will be able to utilise two tall marking players on the way up the ground which will aid you with players getting into trouble they will have targets to go to.

The biggest problem remains the finals experience and lifting to that intensity outside of Perth for the finals.

But in terms of ability and game plan Fremantle are the closest to getting the pies next year.

 

[Kick It 2 Me]

Lots of toss in this thread.

Hawks had a zone. It was broken down.
Geelong had superstars and quick movement. It was broken down.

Until someone on this board comes up with the answer of how to break down a swarming, all over the ground defence, I'll sit back and watch.

So come on BF. How do you break down a relentless swarm?

 

[MagpieJoel]

Fly spray?

 

[hellfire]

This is the most ridiculous thing ever posted. You were prepared to trade players away as you drafted poorly would be the most valid point.

Pendlebury, Thomas, Toovey, Reid, Brown, Dawes, Goldsack, Macaffer, Wellingham, Sidebottom, Beams... 11 premiership players from that period of drafting [2005-2008.... 2009 is a bit young]. Oh, how very very poor.

Looks pretty sound to me. It was the success of these drafts, which found us quality all over the field, that allowed a smooth transition during the retirements of Buckley/Licuria/Rocca/Burns/Holland/Clement/Wakelin and departure of Tarrant.

Once that crop of draftees matured, we were a force and won the flag.

Nevertheless... his post didn't prove anything, you were just wrong.

 

[Kick It 2 Me]

Fly spray?

I prefer the Milne technique, swat and run