Obviously predicting the ladder is in vogue at this time of the year, most people either
a.) Pull a ladder out of their rear end on the basis of their own prejudices or likes, dislikes and gut feelings
b.) Go through and tip game by game using a ladder predictor program.
Virtually every one of those ladders will have Port, Brisbane, St Kilda and Geelong in the top 4. If you're feeling really daring, you might have pushed up a team from around 6th-8th. into the top 4. If you did either of those things, history suggests that you are totally wrong.
Here are some stats since the advent of the top 8 system in 1994.
-no top 4 has ever contained the same teams two years running.
- Only on one occasion have 3 top 4 teams stayed the same. On average, only 1-2 out of the top 4 stay there.
- Every year, at least one team who didn't make the finals the previous year made the top 4.
- There is a 70% chance that at least one team who finished 12th or worse the previous year will make the top 4.
So given that the bouncing about the ladder position shows no signs of altering, what predictions can we make? Unless there is a dramatic departure from the way things have been for the last decade;
-At least one of Port, Geelong ,Brisbane and St Kilda will finish outside the top 4. Most likely 2 or 3 of those teams will drop out of the top 4.
- At least one of Freo, Kangaroos, Carlton, Adelaide, Collingwood, Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Richmond will make the top 4.
So depressing as it sounds, when the wild eyed Collingwood or Richmond fan does their 'totaly unbiersed' ladder prediction which has their side finishing top 4 next year, there's actually more chance that they'll be correct than the reasonable sounding person who tips conservatively and says the top 4 will stay with Port/Bris/St Kilda/Geelong. Weird huh?
a.) Pull a ladder out of their rear end on the basis of their own prejudices or likes, dislikes and gut feelings
b.) Go through and tip game by game using a ladder predictor program.
Virtually every one of those ladders will have Port, Brisbane, St Kilda and Geelong in the top 4. If you're feeling really daring, you might have pushed up a team from around 6th-8th. into the top 4. If you did either of those things, history suggests that you are totally wrong.
Here are some stats since the advent of the top 8 system in 1994.
-no top 4 has ever contained the same teams two years running.
- Only on one occasion have 3 top 4 teams stayed the same. On average, only 1-2 out of the top 4 stay there.
- Every year, at least one team who didn't make the finals the previous year made the top 4.
- There is a 70% chance that at least one team who finished 12th or worse the previous year will make the top 4.
So given that the bouncing about the ladder position shows no signs of altering, what predictions can we make? Unless there is a dramatic departure from the way things have been for the last decade;
-At least one of Port, Geelong ,Brisbane and St Kilda will finish outside the top 4. Most likely 2 or 3 of those teams will drop out of the top 4.
- At least one of Freo, Kangaroos, Carlton, Adelaide, Collingwood, Bulldogs, Hawthorn and Richmond will make the top 4.
So depressing as it sounds, when the wild eyed Collingwood or Richmond fan does their 'totaly unbiersed' ladder prediction which has their side finishing top 4 next year, there's actually more chance that they'll be correct than the reasonable sounding person who tips conservatively and says the top 4 will stay with Port/Bris/St Kilda/Geelong. Weird huh?