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Will any of the top 4 go out in straight sets?
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Hawks in straight sets; mmmm smells good!
No more illogical than having a 24 round 'season' which is completely pointless other than as a qualifying excersise for the actual 4 week season on which the only achievement can be gained.
In the VFL/AFL since 1930 (I think) the home and away season standing has been renedered just about obselete other than as your starting point for the finals.
If you finish first and lose a prelim you don't get any advantages, you're out. Same as a GF. So seeing as in the AFL nothing other than finals matters at all, the result of a final is far more important than the result of 22 home and away games.
*I'd like to point out I think it is one of the most stupid things about the competition, and I don't agree with it. We should either recognise the Minor premiership as more than nothing with the Premiership still taking precidence (ala NRL) or just cut the length of the season dramatically and have a longer finals series (round robin/knockout maybe) to determine the premiers.
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Well this is my point. I believe that your end of season rank should hold true through the finals. Otherwise you're playing 22games just for your 1st week of finals ranking which can be completely eliminated with a single loss. Theoretically a team that goes undefeated throughout a season can drop the first game of the finals end up playing the 3rd placed team (who could lose as many 7games) AWAY from home (interstate) in a Prelim. That doesn't make sense to me.
If Carlton play west coastin the 2nd week then west coast will go out in straight sets. Bookmark it.
I am more confident of beating west coast than essendon.
I am more confident of beating west coast than essendon.
it still hurts doesnt it mate......im sorry.
Enjoy your cricket season, were still enjoying our football season.
Hstory under this finals system says it's very unlikely any of the top 4 will go out in straight sets. But it's also rare that there's been a wildcard like st Kilda in the 5-8 pack. The loser of geel v haw will justifiably be very nervous ahead of a semi v the saints
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No.
Seriously, does anybody on this site take notice of previous years' results?
The last four years, an EXTREMELY weak/injured side has found its way into the top four and despite all and sundry agreeing these teams were awful, all four of them won their Semi Finals, in fact the two worst teams won theirs COMFORTABLY.
2007 - North Malebourne are destroyed by 105 points by Geelong in the QF, prompting everyone to declare they were gawn for 07 and would be "out in straight sets"
They bounce back to beat Hawthorn the following week comfortably.
2008 - St Kilda, without a doubt the worst top four side in the last eight years (literally FELL into fourth place) were hammered by Geelong in week one, giving them a date with Collingwood the following week - EVERYONE expected St Kilda to lose, even most of their own supporters, they had not beaten Collingwood all year - St Kilda won very easily in the end.
2009 - Collingwood, (the strongest fourth placed side IMO) fresh of a 28 points loss to St Kilda (which they troubled the Saints for much of the first half) struggled against Adelaide but did the job with a clinical second half performance. They were perhaps the luckiest team in this respect because Adelaide very nearly won the match before Collingwood got it in the dying moments, but the fact remained that a top four side did not lose to a 5-8 side once again.
2010 - The Builldogs were absolutely DECIMATED by injury, copped a ten goal hiding to the magpies and came up against a tough Sydney side. FDor the second year in a row, the team in fourth, overcame a half time deficit to account for their 5-8th placed opponent and avoid going out in straight sets.
The only two years where a team has gone out in straight sets since the new format are Port Adelaide who (correct me if I'm wrong) were decimated by injury and came up against a very determined Hawthorn side (who won the first EIGHT games of the season and were the last undefeated team remaining in the comp that year) AND West Coast in 2007 who were also injury-riddled, dropping a three point ddecision to Port Adelaide in the QF and then going down to a resilient Collingwood side in extra time the following week.
Geelong and Collingwood have dominated the entire year, their only losses this year came because no team could possibly maintain that type of form over an entire season (see St Kilda 2009) and their opponents took advanatage of a lull and beat them. Every win they had (virtually) they either cruised to victory without getting out of second gear or smashed their opposition. Yeah, Geelong had a few more tough tests with Carlton, hawthorn (twice) and St Kilda the first time, but apart from this, it was smooth sailing for the boys from Sleepy Hollow.
Hawthorn possibly had the most disappointing loss of any top four side this year, going down to (of all teams) Adelaide - mind you this was before the Crows became injury hit and dropped WAY out of form.
West Coast are probably the most susceptible side in the top four but they have one advantage no other top four side has in that they will host their Semi final (should they lose week one) in Perth at their fortress Subiaco. No team in the lower reaches of the eight stands a chance of knocking them off there.
St Kilda and Carlton are widely regarded to be the two teams in the bottom half of the eight with a chance of causing a n upset week two but the fact remains out of three attempts of whoever their opponent will be, neither team had ANY success. And that's not even taking into account the fact that both of them have a VERY tough opponent to get over this week.
Three of the last four matches between St Kilda and Sydney have been decided by fewer than three goals, the last three matches occured in Sydney and the other two were at Docklands where the biggest margin was only 14 points (in a game Sydney led at quarter time byt almost five goals)
Essendon and Carlton have a history of playing ridiculously close games depsite the form both are in. Both have injury concerns at the moment, meaning this won't be easy for either team.
So should either Carlton or St Kilda manage to get through their tough encounter week one, they will have to follow this up by a six day break against an opponent they haven't beaten in 2011 and in the case of Carlton, either interstate or against a side who has only lost two matches all year, pre-season included.
As much as I'd love the Saints to win the premiership or even just make a Prelim, sadly it ends for us either this Saturday or next Friday.
As for Sydney and Essendon, you only have to look at how they were playing just five weeks prior - both were out of form and neither looked capable of turning it around in time to play finals. Even though both have actually defeated Geelong this year, its hard to see either of them creating an upset week two either.
Prelim Finals to be:
Collingwood versus Hawthorn
Geelong versus West Coast
Seriously, does anybody on this site take notice of previous years' results?
The last four years, an EXTREMELY weak/injured side has found its way into the top four and despite all and sundry agreeing these teams were awful, all four of them won their Semi Finals, in fact the two worst teams won theirs COMFORTABLY.
2007 - North Malebourne are destroyed by 105 points by Geelong in the QF, prompting everyone to declare they were gawn for 07 and would be "out in straight sets"
They bounce back to beat Hawthorn the following week comfortably.
2008 - St Kilda, without a doubt the worst top four side in the last eight years (literally FELL into fourth place) were hammered by Geelong in week one, giving them a date with Collingwood the following week - EVERYONE expected St Kilda to lose, even most of their own supporters, they had not beaten Collingwood all year - St Kilda won very easily in the end.
2009 - Collingwood, (the strongest fourth placed side IMO) fresh of a 28 points loss to St Kilda (which they troubled the Saints for much of the first half) struggled against Adelaide but did the job with a clinical second half performance. They were perhaps the luckiest team in this respect because Adelaide very nearly won the match before Collingwood got it in the dying moments, but the fact remained that a top four side did not lose to a 5-8 side once again.
2010 - The Builldogs were absolutely DECIMATED by injury, copped a ten goal hiding to the magpies and came up against a tough Sydney side. FDor the second year in a row, the team in fourth, overcame a half time deficit to account for their 5-8th placed opponent and avoid going out in straight sets.
The only two years where a team has gone out in straight sets since the new format are Port Adelaide who (correct me if I'm wrong) were decimated by injury and came up against a very determined Hawthorn side (who won the first EIGHT games of the season and were the last undefeated team remaining in the comp that year) AND West Coast in 2007 who were also injury-riddled, dropping a three point ddecision to Port Adelaide in the QF and then going down to a resilient Collingwood side in extra time the following week.
Geelong and Collingwood have dominated the entire year, their only losses this year came because no team could possibly maintain that type of form over an entire season (see St Kilda 2009) and their opponents took advanatage of a lull and beat them. Every win they had (virtually) they either cruised to victory without getting out of second gear or smashed their opposition. Yeah, Geelong had a few more tough tests with Carlton, hawthorn (twice) and St Kilda the first time, but apart from this, it was smooth sailing for the boys from Sleepy Hollow.
Hawthorn possibly had the most disappointing loss of any top four side this year, going down to (of all teams) Adelaide - mind you this was before the Crows became injury hit and dropped WAY out of form.
West Coast are probably the most susceptible side in the top four but they have one advantage no other top four side has in that they will host their Semi final (should they lose week one) in Perth at their fortress Subiaco. No team in the lower reaches of the eight stands a chance of knocking them off there.
St Kilda and Carlton are widely regarded to be the two teams in the bottom half of the eight with a chance of causing a n upset week two but the fact remains out of three attempts of whoever their opponent will be, neither team had ANY success. And that's not even taking into account the fact that both of them have a VERY tough opponent to get over this week.
Three of the last four matches between St Kilda and Sydney have been decided by fewer than three goals, the last three matches occured in Sydney and the other two were at Docklands where the biggest margin was only 14 points (in a game Sydney led at quarter time byt almost five goals)
Essendon and Carlton have a history of playing ridiculously close games depsite the form both are in. Both have injury concerns at the moment, meaning this won't be easy for either team.
So should either Carlton or St Kilda manage to get through their tough encounter week one, they will have to follow this up by a six day break against an opponent they haven't beaten in 2011 and in the case of Carlton, either interstate or against a side who has only lost two matches all year, pre-season included.
As much as I'd love the Saints to win the premiership or even just make a Prelim, sadly it ends for us either this Saturday or next Friday.
As for Sydney and Essendon, you only have to look at how they were playing just five weeks prior - both were out of form and neither looked capable of turning it around in time to play finals. Even though both have actually defeated Geelong this year, its hard to see either of them creating an upset week two either.
Prelim Finals to be:
Collingwood versus Hawthorn
Geelong versus West Coast
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I'd say St Kilda (though it's no given they'll win themselves on Sat night), are the team that could do the damage in the second week.
That said, I think the top 4 will be the preliminary finalists, more than likely quite convincingly.
That's when the fun starts.
That said, I think the top 4 will be the preliminary finalists, more than likely quite convincingly.
That's when the fun starts.
Yep........Agreed with your entire post! What this tells me is that whoever wins on Friday night should almost become the premiership favourites!
Nothing against Collingwood there, its just that they will have a MUCH more difficult prelim!
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But they won't play like that again. Can't see any top 4 teams going out in straight sets this year.
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West Coast will destroy Carlton. Bookmark it. Why? Because West Coast are a much better team than Carlton.
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Going by this years form, West Coast will practically destroy anyone in Perth.
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I have a bad feeling about this finals series. Are we good enough to beat Geelong ? Yes I think we are. Do we have a gameplan that will beat Geelong ? No. Clarkson has an annoying habit of relying on defenders instead of putting faith in attackers, as was evident against Geelong in the H&A season. Dropping a man back, especially when we are in front, plays right into their hands. Geelong to beat us on Friday night for this reason.
Sydney and St Kilda are not as good as us, however there are a few surprises to come in 2011. This for mine will be the shock of the series. We will get rolled by one of these two.
Hope to God I am wrong, but i predicted the North loss in 2007, all the wins in the 2008 finals series, and the loss to Freo in 2010. I'm definitely no Nostradamus but have just got that feeling.
Sydney and St Kilda are not as good as us, however there are a few surprises to come in 2011. This for mine will be the shock of the series. We will get rolled by one of these two.
Hope to God I am wrong, but i predicted the North loss in 2007, all the wins in the 2008 finals series, and the loss to Freo in 2010. I'm definitely no Nostradamus but have just got that feeling.
Steady on a sec, we have still have a solid core of premiership players and players with finals experience, I don't think that will be an issue at home
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Despite my big rant from before, i have the exact same gut feeling. I don't think hawthorn will get close on Friday night for a start and I thikn they'll have their work cut out against whoeveer they play next week. My gut feel was whoever wins on Saturday will play Collingwood in the final, and my gut gut feel was it would be us....
BUT, i put that down to thinking with my heart not my head and when I really think about it, no matter how shaky or how suspect a top four team is, not one of them will be dropping their semi final to any of the 5-8 teams.
as others have suggested I think the looser of Hawthorn and Cats are most likely to go out in straight sets but I think it is dependant on a few things.
1. How tough the game on Friday is ... ie if they bash each other and get some injuries then they may be a little sore and sorry going into a game against tough grinding sides like saints or sydney.
2. how easy saints or sydney get through their game. They will be on a shorter break so if it is a tight hard game they may struggle to get up again the following week.
none of the top 4 should go in straight sets but stranger things have happened and you never know what part the odd injury could play.
1. How tough the game on Friday is ... ie if they bash each other and get some injuries then they may be a little sore and sorry going into a game against tough grinding sides like saints or sydney.
2. how easy saints or sydney get through their game. They will be on a shorter break so if it is a tight hard game they may struggle to get up again the following week.
none of the top 4 should go in straight sets but stranger things have happened and you never know what part the odd injury could play.
Essendon have beaten West Coast (in Melb) and Geelong (less than two kicks).
Sydney has beaten Geelong (at SS) and West Coast (in Perth)
St. Kilda has beaten West Coast (in Melb).
Carlton has beaten none of the top four sides.
On that form you would think that only Essendon and Sydney have a chance at getting an upset, but that it would be very unlikely, especially as they are not favourites to win their elimination finals.
Sydney has beaten Geelong (at SS) and West Coast (in Perth)
St. Kilda has beaten West Coast (in Melb).
Carlton has beaten none of the top four sides.
On that form you would think that only Essendon and Sydney have a chance at getting an upset, but that it would be very unlikely, especially as they are not favourites to win their elimination finals.
Can't see it. Carlton's forward line isn't good enough, Essendon have too many injuries, St Kilda rely too much on Riewoldt, who is playing injured, and we are not experienced enough to make it past St Kilda (which is a genuine 50-50 game)...The top 4 deserve to be where they are, and by rights should play off in the prelims. Should I said...
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Put a few on Sydney and Essendon to both win their first games. In my opinion Carlton and St Kilda are extraordinarily overrated, I genuinely think Sydney is better than St Kilda and I have a feeling Essendon will beat a team who has their position on the ladder greatly exaggerated.
And both teams will have a fighting chance in week 2 to beat a team coming off a momentum breaking loss.
