Will any of the top 4 go out in straight sets?

[Nerv_01]

Very unlikely. The Top 4 this year is the strongest Top 4 I can remember, as all 4 teams have legitimite premiership hopes unlike previous years. There is a massive gap as well from the Top 4 down to 5th to 8th. Teams 5th to 8th are all pretty ordinary this year imo.

Disagree, Hawthorn and West Coast are not good enough to beat Collingwood and are highly unlikely to beat Geelong. There are two teams with a shot at the flag and they are 1 and 2 on the ladder. Hawthorn and West Coast have both only played one top 8 team twice and their Wins are inflated. Hawks played these teams twice - 2nd, 11th, 13th, 16th, 17th.

Don't know if anyone will go out in straight sets but Hawthorn is the best bet given that West Coast have a home ground advantage.

 

[LiterallyNobody]

Put a few on Sydney and Essendon to both win their first games. In my opinion Carlton and St Kilda are extraordinarily overrated, I genuinely think Sydney is better than St Kilda and I have a feeling Essendon will beat a team who has their position on the ladder greatly exaggerated.

And both teams will have a fighting chance in week 2 to beat a team coming off a momentum breaking loss.

If you were playing anywhere else but Etihad you would beat us. SCG, ANZ, MCG - we wouldn't beat you. But at our fortress etihad, i have a little more confidence. Having said that, I still rate you guys as a real chance to cause an upset Saturday night as your last three games at etihad against us you've been close with us in all of them and nearly beat us in two of them.

 

[Oneiros]

Given the results of the regular season I just can't really see West Coast getting knocked over by Carlton or Essendon at Subi. In a Melbourne finals berth, yeah, you might make the argument, but not at Subi. Arguments about Carlton playing Subiaco better than their own ground are just too fanciful to me, especially when you'll be playing against 18 in blue gold and white and three terrified little bumpkins in green

 

[Tulip]

Whoever plays Essendon in the second week.

Oh good, they're all safe then!

 

[grogan]

I think Geelong.
But having said that I think they can beat Hawthorn and Saints or Swans.
Saints and Swans can't beat Hawks but could beat Cats.
WC have second week in WA which probably assures a prelim. Collingwood are collingwood. Hawks can only be beaten by cats. That leaves Geelong.

 

[Pj.Rj.Hj]

Hawthorn and West Coast have both only played one top 8 team twice and their Wins are inflated.

2 1/2 Wins Inflated?

 

[MrPresident]

If you were playing anywhere else but Etihad you would beat us. SCG, ANZ, MCG - we wouldn't beat you. But at our fortress etihad, i have a little more confidence. Having said that, I still rate you guys as a real chance to cause an upset Saturday night as your last three games at etihad against us you've been close with us in all of them and nearly beat us in two of them.

While I don't think St Kilda at Etihad is an easy assignment by any means, I think winning at Skilled has given us confidence in our ability to perform on the road. Going down to Etihad doesn't seem as scary as it probably would have been before the Geelong game.

Either way, I think the winner of our game can beat Geelong, but would struggle against Hawthorn.

 

[LiterallyNobody]

While I don't think St Kilda at Etihad is an easy assignment by any means, I think winning at Skilled has given us confidence in our ability to perform on the road. Going down to Etihad doesn't seem as scary as it probably would have been before the Geelong game.

Either way, I think the winner of our game can beat Geelong, but would struggle against Hawthorn.

Agreed.

While I think both have our measure, I reckon we'd finish closer to geelong than to hawthorn. Having said that, geelong have worked out how to play against us where hawthorn still struggle. Were it not for our mental breakdown in the second quarter to let them in, who knows what we could've achieved in round 8 this year? Suffice to say, we may have been able to turn our season around much earlier (yeah, clutching at straws I know)

 

[Simple Jack]

as others have suggested I think the looser of Hawthorn and Cats are most likely to go out in straight sets but I think it is dependant on a few things.

1. How tough the game on Friday is ... ie if they bash each other and get some injuries then they may be a little sore and sorry going into a game against tough grinding sides like saints or sydney.
2. how easy saints or sydney get through their game. They will be on a shorter break so if it is a tight hard game they may struggle to get up again the following week.

none of the top 4 should go in straight sets but stranger things have happened and you never know what part the odd injury could play.

This post is 100% correct and a perfect summation of the situation.

 

[mytym]

First of all, let me just commend most of the posters on this thread - very un-BigFooty-like performance.

Of the 2nd week match up this is the order from most likely to least likely IMO:

Carlton d West Coast at Subi 40%
St Kilda d Geelong at MCG 33%
Sydney d Hawthorn at MCG 33%
St Kilda d Hawthorn at MCG 30%
Carlton d Collingwood at MCG 15%
Essendon d Collingwood at MCG 10%
Sydney d Geelong at MCG 5%
Essendon d West Coast at Subi 0%

That being said, let's see what chance they have of happening based on week 1 results:

Collingwood d West Coast 90%
Carlton d Essendon 75%
St Kilda d Sydney 55%
Geelong d Hawthorn 50%
Hawthorn d Geelong 50%
Sydney d St Kilda 45%
Essendon d Carlton 25%
West Coast d Collingwood 10%

Therefore the chances of the top 4 going out in straight sets are no better than:

Carlton d West Coast at Subi 36%
Sydney d Hawthorn at MCG 18%
St Kilda d Geelong at MCG 17%
St Kilda d Hawthorn at MCG 15%
Sydney d Geelong at MCG 3%
Carlton d Collingwood at MCG 2%
Essendon d Collingwood at MCG 1%
Essendon d West Coast at Subi 0%

I think that says it all. The only thing I'll add is that of all the top 4 sides Geelong is the one team that every other finalist believes they can beat. Of Course this doesn't mean they actually can beat them, just that they BELIEVE they can.

 

[HolyWars]

2 1/2 Wins Inflated?

 

[kreuze_missile]

Eagles. Straight sets

 

[kaiserchief13]

Eagles. Straight sets

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=138

 

[SA HAWK]

I have a bad feeling Hawthorn will.

Hope i am wrong.

 

[The_Big_Ship]

Collingwood d West Coast 90%

should be more like 75-78%, the eagles are far from being a $10 chance.

 

[eaglespremiers]

Carlton d West Coast at Subi 40%

Don't think this is entirely accurate.

 

[captain peanut]

under this finals system, only 2 of 22 winning elimination finals teams have progressed beyond the semi final the week after. hawks did it in 2001 when they rolled port at aami, and the pies did it in 2007 when they needed extra time to overcome the eagles minus judd cousins kerr at subiaco. it is damn tough to do

however this year does have a somewhat different feel about it. there is a massive gap between the top 3 and the rest. however west coast in 4th have no clear edge over either of carl or stk in 5th/6h - 13 of their 17 victories have come against teams finishing 10th or lower. they've won only 4 of 9 against the top 9 and 2 of 6 against the top 7 (which also tells you they only played each of the other top 7 teams once each - a draw doesn't get much softer than that). west coast, carl, stk deserve to be ranked together and the eagles simply lobbed into 4th due to circumstances falling their way. carlton are well placed to beat the eagles in week 2 in perth

 

[Blues_Man]

This post is 100% correct .

No it isn't ..he spelt loser wrong ...but the rest of it i agree with .

I believe Geelong will beat the hawks and leave them very vulnerable .

 

[Brissy Bomber]

Don't think this is entirely accurate.

I think it should be higher. Judd's capacity to have a major influence in W.A. is being severely overlooked imo.

 

[Pj.Rj.Hj]

... carlton are well placed to beat the eagles in week 2 in perth

Why?
It's as likely as WC beating Collingwood this week and we all know that no one can see that happening.

 

[sydney_crow]

I dont see the logic of giving precedence to a single match as opposed to an entire season of results.

I can see your point and I presume also that you are suggesting that the Hawks give back the 2008 flag in favour of Geelong

 

[lamaros]

Of the 2nd week match up this is the order from most likely to least likely IMO:

Sydney d Hawthorn at MCG 45%
St Kilda d Geelong at MCG 35%
St Kilda d Hawthorn at MCG 35%
Sydney d Geelong at MCG 35%
Carlton d West Coast at Subi 30%
Essendon d West Coast at Subi 25%
Carlton d Collingwood at MCG 15%
Essendon d Collingwood at MCG 15%

That being said, let's see what chance they have of happening based on week 1 results:

Collingwood d West Coast 85%
Carlton d Essendon 55%
St Kilda d Sydney 55%
Geelong d Hawthorn 60%
Hawthorn d Geelong 40%
Sydney d St Kilda 45%
Essendon d Carlton 45%
West Coast d Collingwood 15%

Fixed your numbers a bit. You do realise that Carlton probably have more injury worries than Essendon? And that Geelong is actually much better than Hawthorn?

 

[Nerv_01]

2 1/2 Wins Inflated?

Well when you consider Carlton and Collingwood played 11 of the 22 games against top 8 teams and the Eagles and Hawthorn 8 of 22, 3 wins inflated seems about right.

 

[Ricmel]

Can't see any going out in straight sets but the loser of Hawks vs Cats is most likely. Eagles get home final in second game and Pies vetry unlikely to lose 3 in a row based on the last 2 years.

 

[markr]

Well when you consider Carlton and Collingwood played 11 of the 22 games against top 8 teams and the Eagles and Hawthorn 8 of 22, 3 wins inflated seems about right.

On AFL 360 last week they showed the ladder if each club had played each other once to remove the imbalance. The top 8 was identical.