Will any of the top 4 go out in straight sets?

[lamaros]

On AFL 360 last week they showed the ladder if each club had played each other once to remove the imbalance. The top 8 was identical.

Which ones did they include? I'd rather have our first games against Carlton and West Coast, but our second against Richmond...

 

[mytym]

Fixed your numbers a bit. You do realise that Carlton probably have more injury worries than Essendon? And that Geelong is actually much better than Hawthorn?

Hence the inclusion of "IMO."

So let me get this straight. My downfall, is that I don't realise Geelong is much better than Hawthorn, but I do realise Carlton is much better than Essendon?

Ordinarily, I would have Essendon as a 5% chance to beat Carlton, but I have increased their chance to 25% purely because they lift against Carlton. I've done exactly the same thing for Carlton against Collingwood.

Geelong may be slightly better than Hawthorn (certainly not much better), but the recent record between these two suggests the game will be "toss of the coin" stuff.

 

[big_bird_84]

First of all, let me just commend most of the posters on this thread - very un-BigFooty-like performance.

Of the 2nd week match up this is the order from most likely to least likely IMO:

Carlton d West Coast at Subi 40%
St Kilda d Geelong at MCG 33%
Sydney d Hawthorn at MCG 33%
St Kilda d Hawthorn at MCG 30%
Carlton d Collingwood at MCG 15%
Essendon d Collingwood at MCG 10%
Sydney d Geelong at MCG 5%
Essendon d West Coast at Subi 0%

That being said, let's see what chance they have of happening based on week 1 results:

Collingwood d West Coast 90%
Carlton d Essendon 75%
St Kilda d Sydney 55%
Geelong d Hawthorn 50%
Hawthorn d Geelong 50%
Sydney d St Kilda 45%
Essendon d Carlton 25%
West Coast d Collingwood 10%

Therefore the chances of the top 4 going out in straight sets are no better than:

Carlton d West Coast at Subi 36%
Sydney d Hawthorn at MCG 18%
St Kilda d Geelong at MCG 17%
St Kilda d Hawthorn at MCG 15%
Sydney d Geelong at MCG 3%
Carlton d Collingwood at MCG 2%
Essendon d Collingwood at MCG 1%
Essendon d West Coast at Subi 0%

I think that says it all. The only thing I'll add is that of all the top 4 sides Geelong is the one team that every other finalist believes they can beat. Of Course this doesn't mean they actually can beat them, just that they BELIEVE they can.

Does Collingwood genuinely believe they can beat Geelong though? Everyone knows they can if they're at their best, but whether they believe they can considering they've been Geelong's bunny this year is debatable..

 

[mytym]

Does Collingwood genuinely believe they can beat Geelong though? Everyone knows they can if they're at their best, but whether they believe they can considering they've been Geelong's bunny this year is debatable..

Surely, you can't be serious?

 

[chefmeister]

Surely, you can't be serious?

Why not?
Collingwood have been Geelong's bunny this year..

 

[TheLip]

If Collingwood play like they did friday night they will not get close to another finalist.

Totally agree with this. Sadly for those daring to dream I have studied the fixture and can't see us playing in any more dead rubbers!

 

[krisholio14]

Totally agree with this. Sadly for those daring to dream I have studied the fixture and can't see us playing in any more dead rubbers!

The dead rubber stuff is a facade.

You'll still win quite well tomorrow.

 

[TheLip]

The dead rubber stuff is a facade.

You hope!

 

[captain peanut]

Does Collingwood genuinely believe they can beat Geelong though? Everyone knows they can if they're at their best, but whether they believe they can considering they've been Geelong's bunny this year is debatable..

champagne comedy at its absolute finest!!!

the last time coll played geel in a game that meant more than diddly squat in real terms, just under 12 months ago, coll led by 81 pts 15 min into the 3rd quarter

i really hope they do play again this finals series. just so the pies get to reinforce how little rnd 24 meant

 

[Simple Jack]

The dead rubber stuff is a facade.

It is?
Well if Collingwood were trying their hardest and you smacked them, and Hawthorn are spanking you now, how good are the Hawks?

 

[Adz]

The loser of tonight will go out next week too imo

 

[Synth]

No Buddy. Hawks are gone next week.

 

[LifeSpan-Void]

Hodgey's got a fair limp on him tonight too, dubious for next week.

 

[Adz]

I called it weeks ago. The loser of tonight was always going to struggle. The injuries of tonight have just about sealed the deal.

 

[Pie 4 Life]

No Buddy. Hawks are gone next week.

This. Can't see them beating the Saints, or even Swans which is a shame.

 

[wallyt99]

We wont be that bad two weeks in a row. We have won many games without Buddy and Roughy. Sydney or StKilda will pose no problems.

Unfortunately cant see us getting over Collingwood (or west coast) without Buddy.

 

[captain peanut]

this happens every year. one or both of the losers of the qualifying finals is apparently out on their feet, got injury problems etc and are ripe for the picking in the semi. yet only 2 of 22 elimination final winners under this system have progressed to a prelim. the hawks will probably find a way to get over the line next week. but will be exposed horribly in a prelim v the pies

 

[WhyAlwaysMe]

If St.Kilda beat Sydney then I can see them giving the Hawks a real run for their money. Either way sets it up for a very interesting Collingwood/West Coast prelim match up!

 

[SA HAWK]

We look shot after tonight.

 

[le dominateur]

Hawks are gone, their supporters know it as well. They will struggle to kick 10 goals against either Swans or Saints and their defence looked pathetic. Geelong really burnt their opportunities going forward, should have won by 10-12 goals.

 

[Seadog]

We wont be that bad two weeks in a row. We have won many games without Buddy and Roughy. Sydney or StKilda will pose no problems.

Unfortunately cant see us getting over Collingwood (or west coast) without Buddy.

Don't think they can beat the Pies, Saints or Eagles playing that style of game, hopefully for them they won't be that bad next week.

 

[CoastersFlag No.5]

No Bailey no Franklin maybe no Hodge no Hawks. Assuming no Saints or Sydney injuries both their defences can beat any forward line Hawks can come out without Buddy. Not to mention Lewis will get cited for his hit on Selwood. Worst case scenario is no Hodge, Buddy, Bailey or Lewis that gives them no chance of a grand final and a likely straight sets out. Losing Buddy is catastrophic enough.

 

[jko'neal]

We wont be that bad two weeks in a row. We have won many games without Buddy and Roughy. Sydney or StKilda will pose no problems.

Unfortunately cant see us getting over Collingwood (or west coast) without Buddy.

The Saints will pose a problem to every side in the top 8 so I wouldn't be too cocky about knocking them over next week.

 

[DO IT TO IT]

collingwood

 

[True Blue Cat]

I will admit when Buddy went down to the rooms i instantly thought the Hawks would lose next week. I'm not saying they can never win without him but when it comes to finals i don't see how they could cover such a massive loss.