Prediction Will the Hawks go a step further in 2025?

[extractasam]

Completely agree, the natural trajectory of Nick and Calsher is enough to improve our list regardless of the additions. I was more talking about players to come in to the 22 from the SF team.

For what it's worth the rational part of me can see Calsh having a bit of second year blues. If keys put more work into him and stop him leaping he might struggle until he either works through it or gets strong enough to compete (his genes should sort that out quick enough).

I think Nick should only get better and can honestly see him kicking 40+ next year. I think smalls with his workrate are harder to stop than talls. If he gets the supply he will tear multiple games apart next year.

The worst thing that can happen is the holds get ignored by umps and he loses a bit of confidence if the poor games stack up. Aliir tried it in the semi and the umps were all over it, but you are right.

Hopefully Barrass doing his own stopping down the other end can offset whatever we potentially lose in our forward line.

 

[Dipper]

Good thing your username didn’t involve Tuck - or maybe a bad thing ?

All I can think about right now is Plugger.

That's a lie because I just thought of Stephen Dank too.

 

[Ka Norkers]

I'll preface my reply here by saying that I genuinely thought Hawthorn would finish bottom two or three last year, so take this with a grain of salt.

Hawthorn had their best chance over the next decade to win a flag in 2024. Should have won a flag in 2024.
1. Absolutely stiffed with two utterly key injuries to Day and Frost at the wrong time.
2. Played an awful game against Port, as the young Hawks were prone to do every 5 or 6 weeks in the second half of the season. Still only lost by three points, and the usually reliable Moore missed a shot he'd make 9.5 times out of 10. Siss's shot from 50+ was a bit in the lap of the gods, so not as dirty on that. I was uber confident Hawks would smash that team of lifeless pretenders who, laughingly, call themselves the "bloods" in the prelim, and Brisbane at the MCG would have seen Newk shine like never before, he was Norm Smith bound, make no mistake about that.

Still, like 2007 and 2012, this team has the combined strength of character to overcome that incredible disappointment, and focus on winning that flag. Not so much 2007, but that dirty night in Port Adelaide last September will annoy me for the rest of my days.... the premiership was there for the taking.

2025 Crystal Ball.
Expectations of middle-of-the-road to lesser than average injury list (young list)

1. Hawthorn will finish top 4, from there, and expectation of a flag.
2. Jai Newcombe will finish as AA player and Brownlow top 5. He's already a top 10 player in the AFL.
3. Sicily, Macdonald Barrass and Mass will join Newk in the AA 40 squad.
4. Dear, Watson and Lewis will all kick 30+ goals, the latter off only 9 games.
5. Barrass will seem to be one of the greatest bargain trades of the modern era.
6. Damien Barrett will jump on the band wagon and simply ignore his previous ridiculous pontifications. Ditto Montagna.

 

[Bugs1977]

Completely agree, the natural trajectory of Nick and Calsher is enough to improve our list regardless of the additions. I was more talking about players to come in to the 22 from the SF team.


For what it's worth the rational part of me can see Calsh having a bit of second year blues. If keys put more work into him and stop him leaping he might struggle until he either works through it or gets strong enough to compete (his genes should sort that out quick enough).

I think Nick should only get better and can honestly see him kicking 40+ next year. I think smalls with his workrate are harder to stop than talls. If he gets the supply he will tear multiple games apart next year.

With the small ball brigade that he’ll have at his feet all he has to do is to bring it to ground if he can’t mark it himself. Earlier in the season I thought both he a Mabs did a fantastic job of this and you could tell the message from Sam was just don’t let the opposition mark it easily.

 

[Roddy]

Big changes down back, but I don’t think it will take as long as fwd line in 24 to gel

Agreed, been thinking the backline won’t take as long to lock in as some think. The two blokes coming in are experienced and consummate professionals, and should only take a summer/pre-season to get with the system.

 

[HawthornHawk]

What really stands out to be me next year is our depth, we have 30 players with senior experience to call on, plus a couple of handy additions in Lewis and Blanck if they can get right.

I only worry about our lack of depth as small/high half forward especially if Breust regresses. I guess that's where Hardwick's versatility will be important.

 

[cryptor]

What really stands out to be me next year is our depth, we have 30 players with senior experience to call on, plus a couple of handy additions in Lewis and Blanck if they can get right.

I only worry about our lack of depth as small/high half forward especially is Breust regresses. I guess that's where Hardwick's versatility will be important.

I wouldn’t assume Breust regresses on his 2024 season. Quickly people forget he was in contention for AA in 2023. His apparent drop off this year was due to his season being derailed by the grumbly groin which meant he had to be managed all season.

Give him a clear run at it and we’ll likely see something much closer to his 2023 season.

 

[HawthornHawk]

I wouldn’t assume Breust regresses on his 2024 season. Quickly people forget he was in contention for AA in 2023. His apparent drop off this year was due to his season being derailed by the grumbly groin which meant he had to be managed all season.

Give him a clear run at it and we’ll likely see something much closer to his 2023 season.

Should have said 'if' not 'is', regardless the point stands that the impact of our small forwards is really important with the way we play and we are not batting as deep in that position as any other

 

[matey]

What really stands out to be me next year is our depth, we have 30 players with senior experience to call on, plus a couple of handy additions in Lewis and Blanck if they can get right.

I only worry about our lack of depth as small/high half forward especially if Breust regresses. I guess that's where Hardwick's versatility will be important.

I’m pretty happy with Wiz, Ginni, Moore, Croc …… I reckon it will be one of the best small forward groups in the comp. Wiz will be one of the best he is unbelievably good!

 

[Simon_Nesbit]

What really stands out to be me next year is our depth, we have 30 players with senior experience to call on, plus a couple of handy additions in Lewis and Blanck if they can get right.

I only worry about our lack of depth as small/high half forward especially if Breust regresses. I guess that's where Hardwick's versatility will be important.

Agree with your depth comment, I feel we have as much - if not more - depth than any of the other contenders.

Your call of HFF/FP is a bit of a strange take for mine - it's one area of the ground we have surplus AFL quality players (the other being HBF/3rd talls).

I feel we've given the KPD enough coverage now, but KPF, Ruck and onball is still lacking in support (or more correctly our 'support' level players are playing the prime role); whilst the wing remains a shortcoming (lots of options, just none that have inked their name).

 

[HawthornHawk]

Agree with your depth comment, I feel we have as much - if not more - depth than any of the other contenders.

Your call of HFF/FP is a bit of a strange take for mine - it's one area of the ground we have surplus AFL quality players (the other being HBF/3rd talls).

I feel we've given the KPD enough coverage now, but KPF, Ruck and onball is still lacking in support (or more correctly our 'support' level players are playing the prime role); whilst the wing remains a shortcoming (lots of options, just none that have inked their name).

In comparison to other areas on the ground, ie when at our best we play all 4 of MacDonald, Ginnivan, Watson and Moore, often with Breust in addition as sub. Who is next man up from BH if one of them gets injured?

We have more than enough depth for Ruck and on ball imo, how many teams have a backup ruckman of Reeves' calibre? Then we have Mackenzie, Ward, Maginness and Morrison fighting for last position on the bench depending on how mid heavy we will want to go.

Great problems to have. The fact that all of Reeves, Morrison, Maginness and Frost chose to stay when there was reported interest in them tells me the players really believe they're a chance in 2025 and they don't want to miss out.

 

[moginie]

In comparison to other areas on the ground, ie when at our best we play all 4 of MacDonald, Ginnivan, Watson and Moore, often with Breust in addition as sub. Who is next man up from BH if one of them gets injured?

Anderson.

 

[cryptor]

Should have said 'if' not 'is', regardless the point stands that the impact of our small forwards is really important with the way we play and we are not batting as deep in that position as any other

You mentioned Hardwick. I'd also expect Newcombe and Day to also play increased forward half minutes in 2025. Finn has also proven he can add something different as a forward half player which I don't think many expected. Matt Hill also looks like a genuine possibility of someone who could potentially debut next season as a wing/forward.

I reckon our small/medium forward stocks are among the best and deepest in the league currently. I'd be more concerned about our tall forward options.

 

[threesixpio]

You mentioned Hardwick. I'd also expect Newcombe and Day to also play increased forward half minutes in 2025. Finn has also proven he can add something different as a forward half player which I don't think many expected. Matt Hill also looks like a genuine possibility of someone who could potentially debut next season as a wing/forward.

I reckon our small/medium forward stocks are among the best and deepest in the league currently. I'd be more concerned about our tall forward options.

Agreed although Calsher is someone that came out of the blue

 

[cryptor]

Agreed although Calsher is someone that came out of the blue

He is very much an exception to the rule. It's rare even for a top 10 pick KPF to have that kind of impact in their first year. If Dear or Chol aren't available at any point before Lewis is back then we'll probably be relying on a mix of Battle/Sicily/Gunston/Weddle to play KPF - which is far from the end of the world but it's hardly ideal. The alternatives are the taller but far less experienced likes of Ramsden/Scaife/McCabe/Uhr-Henry.

 

[arupist]

Agreed although Calsher is someone that came out of the blue

Only in the sense that he played seniors sooner than expected. His talent was undeniable even before he was drafted. Have a look back at his highlights. Personally, I was not all that surprised at his progress, particularly after his BH games.

 

[peetoo]

If a team finishes a season strong, they tend to start the next season strong

 

[Fleabane]

If a team finishes a season strong, they tend to start the next season strong

We haven't done that the last few years but I'm hopeful we'll turn that around this coming season. Should be an exciting year.

 

[Bedi]

What really stands out to be me next year is our depth, we have 30 players with senior experience to call on, plus a couple of handy additions in Lewis and Blanck if they can get right.

I only worry about our lack of depth as small/high half forward especially if Breust regresses. I guess that's where Hardwick's versatility will be important.

Pretty bloody happy about that 5 year contract as i reckon we're gonna see him play his best footy up forward

 

[HawthornHawk]

Anderson.

Funny you mention him, I was thinking he could have the attributes to get games early in his career as a pressure forward. Fingers crossed

 

[mustang]

I think we will win around 14 to 16 wins which will be a great season.

Why?

Harder draw yes we have brought it some players and our backline will be a lot stronger, but more teams will play like Port did and we will need to adjust to other teams playing like this against us.

We need a second tall to support Dear, will Lewis come back strong as Chol goes missing in big games.

Will Dear and Watson get second year blues.

I think if we can get around 14-16 wins we should be happy, which should get us around 4/6 spot.

 

[tommyk72]

If a team finishes a season strong, they tend to start the next season strong

Except for Hawthorn, who have recently made it a habit of ending strong and starting weak.

 

[Nuggets73]

A lot will be dependant on Mitch IMO .. if he comes back solid, kicks 2-2.5 goals a game … it’s on!

 

[peetoo]

Except for Hawthorn, who have recently made it a habit of ending strong and starting weak.

Every season?. Not really

 

[tommyk72]

Every season?. Not really

You're right, not every season. But generally we've finished seasons stronger than we start the next (and even than we've started that same season).

2018 - won 6 of the last 8
2019 - lost 3 of the first 5; won the last 3
2020 - lost 5 of the first 8; won last 1
2021 - lost 4 of the first 5; won 3 drew 1 of the last 4
2022 - lost 6 of the first 9; won 4 of the last 7
2023 - lost 8 of the first 9; won 3 of the last 7
2024 - lost the first 5