Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[whoa_vardy]

Gold Coast (A) - win, just
West Coast (H) - Win, smash them
Collingwood (A) - Win, coming off three wins in a row and the bigger the ground, the better we play.
North Melbourne (H) - win
Essendon (A) - the loss we had to have

4-1 over the next five games.

 

[Rotayjay]

I've changed my vote to yes.

I think we're better than the 2014 Crows, but not sure if we're better than the 2015 Crows.

 

[John Who]

I’d say currently we’re in with a very good chance of making it. It’s all about now to keep at the process and play with a similar brand of footy in the last half of the season. Still some uncertainties, however.

Positives this year:

• kids are all playing at a decent level, most appear to improve.
• veterans are playing consistent footy
• we’ve found the mojo as a club; spirits are at an all time high since 2017.
• media is giving us positive vibes instead of snarky attacks

Still the unknown in the latter half:

• how the kids will progress; will they continue their trajectory or will there be some drop off?
• injuries and how we cover the injuries
• will the players get too much ahead of themselves?

 

[Stephen2]

Pre-season - Adelaide 10th at 13-10
After Rd 1 - Adelaide 12th at 11-12
After Rd 2 - Adelaide 12th at 9-14
After Rd 3 - Adelaide 7th at 12-11 Defeat St Kilda in Elimination, Lose to Sydney in Semi
After Rd 4 - Adelaide 5th at 15-8 Defeat Port Adelaide in Elimination, Defeat Carlton in Semi, Lose to Melbourne in Prelim
After Rd 5 - Adelaide 3rd at 17-6 Lose to Melbourne in Qualifying, Defeat Sydney in Semi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim
After Rd 6 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to Geelong in Semi
After Rd 7 - Adelaide 7th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to Geelong in Semi
After Rd 8 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to St Kilda in Semi
After Rd 9 - Adelaide 5th at 15-8 Defeat Richmond in Elimination, Lose to Brisbane in Semi
After Rd 10 - Adelaide 10th at 12-11
After Rd 11 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat St Kilda in Elimination, Defeat Western Bulldogs in Smi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim

You'd think we could pinch the flag once after all those scenarios!

 

[crows dude]

We win showdown then get a showdown final. We lose showdown and Port finish 3rd instead of 6 and we finish 8th.

 

[MsTopG]

Will be a fight between us, Saints, Bombers, Dockers, Cats for three of the finals spots, it seems

I don’t have us as one of the likeliest to make it, but we at least have a chance

You can rule out the bombers and the saints. Both aren't that good. Essendon play Wce and North twice and have already played both already. They should get in with that draw but I don't think they will. The two big games for the cats are this week against dogs and their next after their bye against powaa at Adel oval. Lose both and it's curtains for them for finals.That would put them at 5 and 8 and needing to win 9 of their last 10. Most likely will need 14 to get in this year with the extra round. I think the dogs will be fired up this week at marvel after their loss to gc and should account for the cats.

 

[NSolis]

It's unlikely you'll need 14 wins to get in.

A useful tool here given that the season has 11 rounds of results already is to run sims of the rest of the season to see random 'probable' finals outcomes.

For example you can do that here: Squiggle AFL Ladder Predictor

Just now I ran 10 sims:
One time 8th place had 14 wins, while 9th, 10th and 11th place had 12 wins. So it is possible to need 14, but would require a big divergence between the top 8 and the rest of the pack.

In two of the sims 8th place had 13 wins. In both these cases several teams made it with 13 wins, including as high as 5th place, and at most one 13 win team missed out. So 13 wins combined with a percentage that isn't the worst of the 13 win teams is very likely to make it.

The other seven times 8th place had 12 wins and high percentage. Generally in these cases around 1-3 teams with 12 wins also missed the 8, and sometimes 7th spot had 12 wins as well. So with 12 wins you'd need to have good percentage and some other things fall your way.

For the record the Crows also made the finals in 8 out of 10 of the sims.

 

[Dangarman]

A real sliding doors moment on Sat night.

I think Gold Coast's season is over anyway, needing 8 wins from 12 games. If they beat us, there's still a pulse for them needing to go 7-4 in their last 11. If they lose, they will need 8-3 in the run home which I'm quite sure is beyond them with trips to Adelaide (x2), Melbourne, Sydney, Hobart and Canberra to come while hosting Brisbane, StK, Carlton and Collingwood and Hawthorn. Wouldn't surprise me if they lost ten of their last 11.

A win for us gives us wiggle room to drop 5 more games and still make the 8. A loss doesn't kill our season, but leaves us the tough but by no measure impossible task of a 7-4 back end.

The difference between a win and a loss for us is 7-5 or 6-6. The former is a fist pump 'yeah, we got this', the latter is more like a 'Nice work' pat on the back.

 

[Rotayjay]

I think the Suns are being oversold at the moment. They're not a good side and they will not make the eight. Stewie Dew's career is on death row, and one swallow (beating the Bulldogs) doth not a summer make.

However, there is every chance they'll be better than us on the day when we play them in the Territory. Frankly, if we can't handle a mediocre team at a niche ground then we deserve to be fighting for the last spot in the eight or miss finals. I think we'll win in a manner similar to the Hawthorn game - a shit ty game all around.

 

[I Lost My Keays]

I reckon we will get anywhere from 6th to 8th. We have a good run now.

 

[Eddie Murphy]

Both Gold Coast and Bombers away are tough fixtures. If we go out of those games with at least one win I’d say that’s a big pass

 

[rabidcrow]

You can rule out the bombers and the saints. Both aren't that good. Essendon play Wce and North twice and have already played both already. They should get in with that draw but I don't think they will. The two big games for the cats are this week against dogs and their next after their bye against powaa at Adel oval. Lose both and it's curtains for them for finals.That would put them at 5 and 8 and needing to win 9 of their last 10. Most likely will need 14 to get in this year with the extra round. I think the dogs will be fired up this week at marvel after their loss to gc and should account for the cats.

13 wins will make the 8. Expect bottom teams to provide some upsets in the back half of the year


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Hobbes]

13 wins will make the 8. Expect bottom teams to provide some upsets in the back half of the year


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

There are a lot of teams on the cusp. 12 wins is enough many years, and it may well be so here.

 

[Alwaysacrow]

Not at this rate. We can't win away.

 

[Cap]

Don't get me wrong, love them to.

But we desperately need quality mids, so might be a long term negative

 

[jackster83]

Lol

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

 

[Geoffa32]

No we won't...

On SM-A325F using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[kirky]

Gold Coast (A) - win, just
West Coast (H) - Win, smash them
Collingwood (A) - Win, coming off three wins in a row and the bigger the ground, the better we play.
North Melbourne (H) - win
Essendon (A) - the loss we had to have

4-1 over the next five games.

You are taking the piss.

We ain’t beating Collingwood in Melbourne.

And we just lost to Gold Coast.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Haven't changed my mind... that we will just miss the finals this year.

 

[Rotayjay]

It's now pretty safe to tip us at home and tip against us away. If we win every home game from here, that's 12 wins - very borderline and looking like missing out. Lose the Showdown and we're no hope.

 

[CrowToon]

We will win at least 11 games this year.

Eagles
North
Giants
Suns
Eagles

Please noone try to tell me we will lose at home to Giants or Suns. We have blown both out of the water in thr first half and whilst melted away in thr second half I don't see it happening at home.

Winnable games include:

Essendon (A) - they aren't that good but it could be another Suns game.
Sydney (H) - We play well at home,Swans are struggling. That's about it.
Port (H) - It's a showdown and it's our home game.

Certain losses:
Collingwood (A)
Melbourne (A)
Brisbane (A)


We win the 5 and jag 2 of the 3 winnable games we make finals. It's not beyond us. As long as we finish within a game 2 of the finals there is no reason 2024 can't be a big year.

 

[pjcrows]

Let's say:

WC - W
@ COLL - L
NM - W
@ ESS - L
GWS - W
@ MEL - L
PORT - L
GC - W
@ BRIS - L
SYD - W
@ WC - W

That's 12W 11L. These days you need 13W to be safe, or big percentage in a tight year, so unless we snag an away win then we aren't going to play finals.

My ceiling was 10 wins so I still think our trajectory is above where I was expecting.

 

[BRL121]

It's probably better if we don't. We can't win away and will embarrass ourselves if we reach finals.

 

[PCORF]

I looked through the remainder draw and we'll win 10 to 12 games. Finish with 12 wins and we may get in on %.