Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[arrowman]

Looks like we will finish around 9-11th which a lot of us predicted.

It's just a pity that for a while there, we were hoping for more. I mean, it's still possible, but getting more unlikely. Making finals from here would be big.

Not making finals is probably a blessing in disguise as we will get a better pick and easier draw

Re the draw - it's broken down into 6-6-6 on the ladder, so it shouldn't make any difference whether we finish 7th or 12th. (Of course, we could get ourselves into the top 6 by winning an EF!) That said, the way the AFL allocates the double ups is a bit rubbery, and of course you can't predict which teams will actually be better / worse in the following season. But IMO our draw next year is likely to be harder than this year's.

 

[Ciao Giacomo]

Prior to the start of the season I thought we would finish between 9th and 12th. The AFL “experts” and the bookies had us finishing around 14th to 16th.

After losing the first two games I thought we would finish between 9th and 12th.

Now that we have won 4 in a row I expect we will finish …………between 9th and 12th .

And I still think we will finish between 9th and 12th, which is above the pre-season predictions. After 12 matches only Hawthorn have fielded a younger and less experienced team.

The difference between home and away form is exactly what you would expect for a team at our stage of development. The most surprising thing is our form against the top four teams, 2 wins and a 1 point loss plus spanking the 5th team but all at Adelaide Oval.

 

[MsTopG]

I think the flag is out of 3 teams. Collingwood, Brisbane and Geelong. I still think once Geelong get all their players back they are easily the best team. Brisbane my smokey as they have all bases covered. It's whether they can win on the MCG.

 

[aabp1978]

I think the flag is out of 3 teams. Collingwood, Brisbane and Geelong. I still think once Geelong get all their players back they are easily the best team. Brisbane my smokey as they have all bases covered. It's whether they can win on the MCG.

Not Port?

 

[MsTopG]

Not Port?

No. Not enough depth. Powaa, Melb will get found out in the finals. You know how powaa roll. All bluster during the regular season and fold when it matters. Rinse repeat.

 

[PCORF]

No. Not enough depth. Powaa, Melb will get found out in the finals. You know how powaa roll. All bluster during the regular season and fold when it matters. Rinse repeat.

Port have had a fairly easy draw but we'll see how Port measure up against the top sides at the business end of the season. They had a crazy win over Melbourne a few weeks ago and an impressive win over Brisbane at the start of the season. You finish top 4 and you have chance. Port could easily win their next 5 games before taking on Collingwood in Round 19. After the showdown they have an away game vs Geelong in R21, their last 3 games after that should be wins. 18-4 will mean nothing going into the finals, you need to earn it.

 

[MsTopG]

Port have had a fairly easy draw but we'll see how Port measure up against the top sides at the business end of the season. They had a crazy win over Melbourne a few weeks ago and an impressive win over Brisbane at the start of the season. You finish top 4 and you have chance. Port could easily win their next 5 games before taking on Collingwood in Round 19. After the showdown they have an away game vs Geelong in R21, their last 3 games after that should be wins. 18-4 will mean nothing going into the finals, you need to earn it.

That game against Collingwood on the MCG is a fairly good gauge of how I think Powaa will go. That was 60 plus. The Cats and Brisbane are better than Collingwood I believe. Pies don't have a genuine key forward. You could put melb in the same category. No genuine key forward star.

 

[Jeffcrowe]

No. Not enough depth. Powaa, Melb will get found out in the finals. You know how powaa roll. All bluster during the regular season and fold when it matters. Rinse repeat.

Disagree

Plenty of depth , been winning with lots of players out and have very good connection amongst their group

Remind me of collingwood last year , top 4 and maybe a granny

 

[Jeffcrowe]

That game against Collingwood on the MCG is a fairly good gauge of how I think Powaa will go. That was 60 plus. The Cats and Brisbane are better than Collingwood I believe. Pies don't have a genuine key forward. You could put melb in the same category. No genuine key forward star.

Alot has happened since then

 

[MsTopG]

Alot has happened since then

Yeah they haven't played any quality teams away. No away game against Brisbane, Melb, Geelong. The Geelong game coming up at Adel will tell us something. Geelong will come to play and they should have a few players back. The powaa have had a very easy draw and at perfect timing when key oppo players were out. They have been good but they still haven't beaten a genuine team away from home mainly because they haven't played one other than Collingwood which they got trounced. You watch when powaa get knocked out in the finals. There supporters will come for Hinkley. They also look like world beaters now. It's highly unlikely they can hold that form for 4months. They have peaked too early.

 

[kirky]

It's just a pity that for a while there, we were hoping for more. I mean, it's still possible, but getting more unlikely. Making finals from here would be big.

Re the draw - it's broken down into 6-6-6 on the ladder, so it shouldn't make any difference whether we finish 7th or 12th. (Of course, we could get ourselves into the top 6 by winning an EF!) That said, the way the AFL allocates the double ups is a bit rubbery, and of course you can't predict which teams will actually be better / worse in the following season. But IMO our draw next year is likely to be harder than this year's.

Our draw next year probably won’t be any more difficult as this year - if Port finish in top 6, that is one of a possible two games against those in the 1-6 section as opposed to this year where we will play both Preliminary Finalists.

We only play West Coast twice of West Coast, Hawthorn and North Melbourne this year.

 

[NSolis]

Yeah if you split the ladder in half, we play three top half teams twice (Collingwood, Port and Brisbane), all of which are currently top four, and three bottom half teams twice (Gold Coast, GWS and West Coast), only one of which is absolutely terrible. That's not a super easy draw, though I think it would have looked a lot better if it wasn't for Port Adelaide and Gold Coast improving. Our second half of the year is very easy, though.

 

[WeeBlake]

I think the flag is out of 3 teams. Collingwood, Brisbane and Geelong. I still think once Geelong get all their players back they are easily the best team. Brisbane my smokey as they have all bases covered. It's whether they can win on the MCG.

It’s wide open this year. Port and Melbourne are also real contenders.

 

[JPetro83]

It’s wide open this year. Port and Melbourne are also real contenders.

it is a 2 horse race IMO.. Collingwood and Port. forget the dees and Lions and Geelong

 

[MsTopG]

it is a 2 horse race IMO.. Collingwood and Port. forget the dees and Lions and Geelong

Who have powaa beaten away from home? St Kilda, Richmond, Sydney. 3 average sides. They have also been offered a dream home draw to date with games against Brisbane, Bulldogs, Melbourne, and have already played west coast, north, hawthorn who are basket cases, They have no chance unless they change the grand final to Adel Oval. Geelong are missing half their side and will still likely finish top 4. Once they get their team back they will be fresh and I can't see anyone stopping them. What's happening now will be very different to what happens in 3 months.

 

[AFC979810]

Who have powaa beaten away from home? St Kilda. They have no chance unless they change the grand final to Adel Oval

Thats brutal. They have one away loss in 2023 and that was to Collingwood at the MCG.

They are 4-1 away from home this year.

 

[crows dude]

Thats brutal. They have one away loss in 2023 and that was to Collingwood at the MCG.

They are 4-1 away from home this year.

And only winning their matches by under two goals before last weeks match. They are being so over-rated

 

[Apsaalooke]

We’re a promising young side that, like so many sides before us, lacks maturity away from home. You’re right, we were never in contention. Not this year. We are very much like the 2015/2016 Crows sides. In the next 12 months we’re going to see an away win against a very good team that finally says, “we’ve arrived”. I’m anticipating it will be quite a fun ride for several years from that point.

Proviso: we improve the current 22 by 2-3 players (with a combination of free agency/player recruitment and the sudden rise of a Cook/Nankervis type.

That’s right. At our best we can beat most teams, which hasn’t been the case since 2017. We don’t always operate at that level though due to inexperience, mental strength, motivation away from home, whatever. Fix that and add some shrewd recruiting, we could be top 4 in the next year or two.

The talent’s there, the consistency isn’t

 

[crows dude]

Ports Remaining Games
Bulldogs at Marvel - L
Geel at AO - L
Ess at MCG - L
Gold Coast at AO - W
Carl at MArvel - W
Coll at AO - L
Adel at AO - L
Geel at Geel - L
GWS at AO - W
Freo at WA - W
RiC AO - W

So I have them 6 wins and 5 losses finishihg with 15 and 8

Our remaining Games
WC at AO - W
Coll at MCG - L
North at AO - W
Ess at Marv - L
GWS at AO - W
Mel at MCG - L
Port at AO - W
GC at AO - W
Bris at Gabba - L
Syd at AO - W
WC at Perth - W

So we finish with 7 wins and 4 losses. Total of 13 wins and 10 losses

 

[rabidcrow]

Ports Remaining Games
Bulldogs at Marvel - L
Geel at AO - L
Ess at MCG - L
Gold Coast at AO - W
Carl at MArvel - W
Coll at AO - L
Adel at AO - L
Geel at Geel - L
GWS at AO - W
Freo at WA - W
RiC AO - W

So I have them 6 wins and 5 losses finishihg with 15 and 8

Our remaining Games
WC at AO - W
Coll at MCG - L
North at AO - W
Ess at Marv - L
GWS at AO - W
Mel at MCG - L
Port at AO - W
GC at AO - W
Bris at Gabba - L
Syd at AO - W
WC at Perth - W

So we finish with 7 wins and 4 losses. Total of 13 wins and 10 losses

I reckon Port win at least 2 more of those AO ones

In Terms of us Port, Sydney and West Coast away will be interesting


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[rabidcrow]

And only winning their matches by under two goals before last weeks match. They are being so over-rated

Like Collingwood last year…

A win is a win - particularly away from home. Every chance to get two home finals and then a strong chance to make the GF

But who cares - it’s about us and how we improve to take the next step.

Where can we field another midfield leader


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[crows dude]

I reckon Port win at least 2 more of those AO ones

In Terms of us Port, Sydney and West Coast away will be interesting


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They wont beat Collingwood. They may beat us so that gives them one extra win.

I still don't rate them and think they will fail big time come finals.

 

[skam85]

Port don't make the GF, I don't even see them in a prelim.

Flag contending teams peak in July and August, not May.

 

[Apsaalooke]

They wont beat Collingwood. They may beat us so that gives them one extra win.

I still don't rate them and think they will fail big time come finals.

The next showdown will most likely be our grand final. Port will have bigger fish to fry, or hopefully be fried. If we can’t get motivated to beat them then the whole year has been a waste of time.

 

[MsTopG]

They wont beat Collingwood. They may beat us so that gives them one extra win.

I still don't rate them and think they will fail big time come finals.

Powaa don't have great depth. If they cop a couple of injuries to their prime movers they have nothing underneath. The team with the strongest depth generally wins the flag.