Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[ABAB]

As opposed to the two and a half quarters we were dominated ourselves?

And yet still had a chance to win those games late so our domination was greater?

 

[TubbsFarquhar]

And yet still had a chance to win those games late so our domination was greater?

How many premiership points did we get in these games?

 

[BunjiMC]

our losses to gold coast, dogs, richmond, gws suggest we won't, and don't deserve to.

And our wins against Port, Brisbane and the Saints suggest we do?

 

[ABAB]

How many premiership points did we get in these games?

The discussion was about whether we deserve to play finals, our best is clearly up there with the top 4 and show we can cause some damage if we make it.

 

[Danger in Texas]

yeah what were the results?
L's
0 premiership points.
They will cost us.
Finalists shouldn't lose that many of those types of games vs teams who are 7th-14th quality.

What’s the difference between a side like us and the Cats, who lost to GC, GWS, Freo and Richmond?

That kind of inconsistency always shows with teams that are middle of the range

 

[I Lost My Keays]

our losses to gold coast, dogs, richmond, gws suggest we won't, and don't deserve to.

People didn’t expect us to make finals this year, we’re a two points inside the eight and you suggest we don’t deserve to make it? That’s not a good take at all.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

I'm happy to be an undeserving finalist and premier

 

[rabidcrow]

yeah what were the results?
L's
0 premiership points.
They will cost us.
Finalists shouldn't lose that many of those types of games vs teams who are 7th-14th quality.

Top 4 sides shouldn’t but finalists? Every year the teams that finished 7 or 8 would have lost games against teams in the bottom 8. That’s why they aren’t top 4


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[TRP1996]

I'm happy to be an undeserving finalist and premier

Being undeserving premiers certainly works for all the Vic sides.

 

[CrowToon]

Beat Collingwood and we make finals simple as that I reckon. We will win all of our home games bar Port (but may still win that) and we will get WCE on the road.

That'd get us to 13 wins and a decent % I reckon if we can avoid being absolutely belted on the road.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Calling it now, 12 wins will get in the eight

Seriously unlikely with a 23 game season.

Have you forgotten about the extra game?

 

[kirky]

our losses to gold coast, dogs, richmond, gws suggest we won't, and don't deserve to.

You are talking about the first two rounds - laughable. We played Richmond on a significantly shorter break after playing in 36C humid conditions the previous week.

I’ll give you GC and Bullies (even though we lost in a shit hole country stadium).

We are very good at home and would be confident against anyone at home (inc Port).

 

[kirky]

Beat Collingwood and we make finals simple as that I reckon. We will win all of our home games bar Port (but may still win that) and we will get WCE on the road.

That'd get us to 13 wins and a decent % I reckon if we can avoid being absolutely belted on the road.

We already have a decent % against our peers other than Geelong (they have an extremely difficult fixture for the remainder of the season). Our % is nearly worth an extra game.

Now if we do lose to Collingwood and Melbourne defeat Geelong (certainly possible) next week, we will still remain in the eight as at the end of the bye rounds.

 

[Dirty Bird]

Pre-season - Adelaide 10th at 13-10
After Rd 1 - Adelaide 12th at 11-12
After Rd 2 - Adelaide 12th at 9-14
After Rd 3 - Adelaide 7th at 12-11 Defeat St Kilda in Elimination, Lose to Sydney in Semi
After Rd 4 - Adelaide 5th at 15-8 Defeat Port Adelaide in Elimination, Defeat Carlton in Semi, Lose to Melbourne in Prelim
After Rd 5 - Adelaide 3rd at 17-6 Lose to Melbourne in Qualifying, Defeat Sydney in Semi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim
After Rd 6 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to Geelong in Semi
After Rd 7 - Adelaide 7th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to Geelong in Semi
After Rd 8 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Lose to St Kilda in Semi
After Rd 9 - Adelaide 5th at 15-8 Defeat Richmond in Elimination, Lose to Brisbane in Semi
After Rd 10 - Adelaide 10th at 12-11
After Rd 11 - Adelaide 6th at 14-9 Defeat St Kilda in Elimination, Defeat Western Bulldogs in Smi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim
After Rd 12 - Adelaide 9th at 13-10
After Rd 13 - Adelaide 8th at 13-10 Lose to Gold Coast in Elimination
After Rd 14 - Adelaide 6th at 13-10 Defeat Essendon in Elimination, Defeat Port Adelaide in Semi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim

		W	L	D	%
1.	Collingwood	21	2	0	129.9%
2.	Melbourne	19	4	0	130.9%
3.	Port Adelaide	17	6	0	117.5%
4.	Brisbane Lions	15	8	0	118.1%
5.	Western Bulldogs	15	8	0	108.3%
6.	Adelaide	13	10	0	116.0%
7.	Essendon	13	10	0	108.0%
8.	Geelong	12	11	0	109.3%
9.	St Kilda	12	11	0	108.0%
10.	Fremantle	12	11	0	98.3%
11.	Gold Coast	12	11	0	98.2%
12.	Richmond	11	11	1	103.3%
13.	GWS	11	12	0	94.7%
14.	Hawthorn	7	16	0	82.7%
15.	Carlton	6	16	1	92.4%
16.	Sydney	6	17	0	94.3%
17.	North Melbourne	3	20	0	72.5%
18.	West Coast	1	22	0	54.7%

QF1: COLLINGWOOD v Brisbane Lions
QF2: MELBOURNE v Port Adelaide
EF1: Western Bulldogs v GEELONG
EF2: ADELAIDE v Essendon

SF1: Brisbane Lions v GEELONG
SF2: Port Adelaide v ADELAIDE

PF1: COLLINGWOOD v Adelaide
PF2: MELBOURNE v Geelong

GF: Collingwood v MELBOURNE

 

[Mr MysteryGuest]

our losses to gold coast, dogs, richmond, gws suggest we won't, and don't deserve to.

I’ve never bought into this idea that certain teams deserve to be in finals.

Every team around us has lost similar games. Based on what you’re saying there would be 2-3 teams every year that don’t deserve to be there.

If you win enough games to get in the 8, then you ‘deserve’ to be in.

 

[kirky]

Based on quarters won for the year as at Round 13, we are 5th (won 29 lost 23) behind Melbourne (33-2-17), Collingwood (32-3-17), Port (32-1-19) and Essendon (30-22).

We are remarkably consistent over a game - 8-5, 7-6, 7-6 and 7-6 over the four quarters.

Posters on here can doubt our credentials but we are right in the mix this year.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Based on quarters won for the year as at Round 13, we are 5th (won 29 lost 23) behind Melbourne (33-2-17), Collingwood (32-3-17), Port (32-1-19) and Essendon (30-22).

We are remarkably consistent over a game - 8-5, 7-6, 7-6 and 7-6 over the four quarters.

Posters on here can doubt our credentials but we are right in the mix this year.

We just need to stop the quarters where the other team gets a huge run on.

 

[kirky]

We just need to stop the quarters where the other team gets a huge run on.

Yes it happened against Gold Coast but it has been less pronounced this year as compared to the last two years.

 

[MsTopG]

13 and percentage should get us there.
Collingwood L
North W
Essendon W
GWS W
Melb L
Powaa L
Suns W
Lions L
Swans W
WCE W

We must win one of Collingwood, Essendon, Melb, Powaa, Lions. If we can't win one those we don't deserve to make the 8. I think the powaa game is a 50/50 game. Collingwood will be very tough and we should lose unless the pies don't turn up. Melb is winnable as melb have been inconsistent but probably a loss. Lions have been inconsistent but they are generally very good at home, probably a loss. Winning one of Essendon or powaa is likely whether we make finals or not.

 

[whattagun07]

I’ve never bought into this idea that certain teams deserve to be in finals.

Every team around us has lost similar games. Based on what you’re saying there would be 2-3 teams every year that don’t deserve to be there.

If you win enough games to get in the 8, then you ‘deserve’ to be in.

yeah I get it.
I just think there's been too many of these losses to the middling teams. If we snag a big win or two against Coll/Port/Bris and beat who we should beat on the way home, then yeah, we will deserve to make it. I just think our trajectory is to narrowly miss, and we'll be able to look back at any of a few of our losses as ones that got away.

 

[Dangarman]

Despite being adamant that it will take 13 wins in this 23 game season to make finals, I'm starting to wonder if there are 8 teams capable of 13 wins.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

Despite being adamant that it will take 13 wins in this 23 game season to make finals, I'm starting to wonder if there are 8 teams capable of 13 wins.

The number will get lowered if the top few teams keep winning and the bottom few teams win some

As grubby as it feels, we need Port to keep churning out Ws. Same with Collingwood, Melbourne & Briabane.

Wins for Hawks, Sydney and (shudder) Carlton are good news. West Coast appear incapable but NM improving a fraction? Need them to pinch some wins against the big middle pack.

 

[MsTopG]

Despite being adamant that it will take 13 wins in this 23 game season to make finals, I'm starting to wonder if there are 8 teams capable of 13 wins.

We should have them on percentage.

 

[Dangarman]

My pipe dream scenario -
Extend our winning finals record against the Dogs to 4-0 in the EF
Send Collingwood to a straight sets exit in front of their rabid fans in the SF.
Beat Port by 119 points in an AO prelim.
Wouldn't really mind if we lost the GF after a run like that. (OK, who am I kidding. Of course I'd be disappointed if we went almost all the way...)

 

[arrowman]

My pipe dream scenario -
Extend our winning finals record against the Dogs to 4-0 in the EF
Send Collingwood to a straight sets exit in front of their rabid fans in the SF.
Beat Port by 119 points in an AO prelim.
Wouldn't really mind if we lost the GF after a run like that. (OK, who am I kidding. Of course I'd be disappointed if we went almost all the way...)

Don't mind it, but I'd rather straight set Port in the SF

PS and we win by 118, with Tex invoking the Bradman Rule and deliberately kicking OOF on the last kick of the match.