Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[SugarShane]

Even with Burgess, the season might take a toll on the younger guys by the back third of the season. I'm daring to dream, but I think we'll probably just miss.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Sneak in I think, enough fire power to have 25+ shots a game. Dawson is top 5 player in the league. Young list so expecting some downs

 

[AFC979810]

Are we really that young?

Just look at us compared to 4 of the other 5 teams who have played this week so far:

This week our lineup was:

Adelaide - Average Age 24.9, Average Games 81.6. Players under 50 games - 9

Fremantle - Average Age 24.9, Average games 71.4. Players under 50 games - are 7
Gold Coast - Average Age 25.0, Average games 88.9. Players under 50 games - 5
Carlton - Average Age 25.1, Average games 87.8. Players under 50 games - 8
Sydney - Average Age 24.3, Average Games 82.6. Players under 50 games - 11

Sydney made a GF, Freo made the finals and Carlton should have last year. All were favoured to make the finals this year.

From our team that thrashed Carlton - we only had 6 players of the 23 who have had less than 5 AFL preseasons. Murray, TT, Pedlar have all had 3 preseasons, Soligo and Rachele 2 preseasons and Mad Max 1.

5/6 of our elite group are all mature players now. Dawson, Laird, Walker, Fog, Rankine should be able to last a season. Rachele I would understand if he fades, especially with his increased midfield minutes so far this year. The next tier of our squad are all mature - Doedee, Keays, Sloane, Milera, O'brien, Smith, Hinge, Butts. Even our interchangeables (not automatic best 22) - Jones, McHenry, Murphy, Sholl, Mcadam, Schoenberg, Worell have all been in the system at least 4 years.

 

[George CantStandYa]

I’m saying yes.

We will be extremely hard to beat at home and we’ve just had the bonus of an extra win at home.

If we were to play GWS and Richmond again in the next 2 weeks we would beat them. So those calibre of sides won’t concern us going forward.

We are likely to lose agains the very best sides but we will also sneak the odd win against them, just like we have over the last couple of years but we are better now.

This isn’t a side that is lacking in some self belief now, now they know how good they can be. We’ve also got Dawson in the middle for good now, we’ve just injected a premier midfielder into our struggling midfield. We didn’t have that for the first 2 weeks.

Our forward line is scary good and will keep us in most games. Plus we have depth.

Last year Sydney surprised with a young list on the rise. Collingwood blew the comp away with their resurrection. I can see us being that team this year and making the top 4. We are currently in the top 4 based on key indicators and form.

Melbourne and Collingwood are locks for top 2 I believe. So that’s 2 spots left, Brisbane are flaky and struggle away from home. Geelong would need to be massive from here to get there but could. We are better than Carlton. Saints I expect their bubble to burst eventually. Bulldogs too flaky. Swans would be another serious contender but even they haven’t been that convincing.

Just did a quick ladder predictor not taking into account margins. Had us equal 4th with Saints but I might have been too generous with the Saints. Crucial games are home games against Brisbane, Sts and Swans.

I believe we are on the roll of something special. Time for you negatives to jump on board

 

[kirky]

Lets make sure we pump Hawks and then the match against Collingwood the following week will be a massive game.

The last two years games at Adelaide Oval against the Pies have been decided by less than a kick and I’d suggest whilst they have improved, so have we.

And I’m not sure how the AFL have ****ed this up - we have two days more recovery from Round 6!

The oval might be a rocking on April 30th!

 

[AFC979810]

Lets make sure we pump Hawks and then the match against Collingwood the following week will be a massive game.

The last two years games at Adelaide Oval against the Pies have been decided by less than a kick and I’d suggest whilst they have improved, so have we.

And I’m not sure how the AFL have ****ed this up - we have two days more recovery from Round 6!

The oval might be a rocking on April 30th!

If we win next week and Collingwood wins against Saints and Essendon - Week 7 could be #4 Adelaide against #3 Collingwood. In the all important Sunday twilight timeslot.

 

[CrowsB4hoes]

Lets make sure we pump Hawks and then the match against Collingwood the following week will be a massive game.

The last two years games at Adelaide Oval against the Pies have been decided by less than a kick and I’d suggest whilst they have improved, so have we.

And I’m not sure how the AFL have ****ed this up - we have two days more recovery from Round 6!

The oval might be a rocking on April 30th!

It’s not funny when Rowie plays it and it’s less funny seeing it posted here

 

[kirky]

It’s not funny when Rowie plays it and it’s less funny seeing it posted here

Lighten up.

Its a bit of fun.

 

[WeeBlake]

I voted no but can see us making it. One thing to remember is we’ve been pretty lucky with injuries.

 

[Drugs Are Bad Mackay?]

There doesn't seem to be that many really good teams at present

Even some of the top 8 from last year aren't looking that impressive

 

[Danger in Texas]

Carlton was a defining game for how we would be looking this year, and we smashed it. The game against the Pies is the next challenge - win that, and we’re in an excellent spot for finals

 

[AFC979810]

Carlton was a defining game for how we would be looking this year, and we smashed it. The game against the Pies is the next challenge - win that, and we’re in an excellent spot for finals

Footy is a week to week game and can change very very quickly. Hawks is definitely the next challenge

Lose against the youngest team in the AFL who is on the bottom of the ladder and suddenly we are 3-3 - the same record we had in 2021/2022 with the next 5 games against Last years Premiers, 2 of last years prelim finalists, top of the table St. Kilda and Bulldogs at a suburban ground.

 

[rabidcrow]

Given our record v Hawks I think the old “one week at a time” comes into play

Due to losing the first two weeks our season is pretty fragile for the next month - need to win 2/3 out of our next 4 to really put us in the frame

As others have said we have started the last couple of years off with some good wins early - baby steps, lid on!


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[Danger in Texas]

Footy is a week to week game and can change very very quickly. Hawks is definitely the next challenge

Lose against the youngest team in the AFL who is on the bottom of the ladder and suddenly we are 3-3 - the same record we had in 2021/2022 with the next 5 games against Last years Premiers, 2 of last years prelim finalists, top of the table St. Kilda and Bulldogs at a suburban ground.

If we lose against Hawks I think it’s fair to say we’ll be well back down to earth, expecting an 11th to 13th finish

Maybe it’s some supporter emotional volatility coming through though, the league can be very unpredictable, hell the first game the Dees lost in ‘21 was against a well below average version of us lol

 

[Redline]

There doesn't seem to be that many really good teams at present

Even some of the top 8 from last year aren't looking that impressive

Thought the same when trying to put together the top 8. I thought Richmond would at least get 13 wins but that looks unlikely.

 

[TheRankineFile]

No. We will finish 10th.

 

[Multiballz]

Given our record v Hawks I think the old “one week at a time” comes into play

Due to losing the first two weeks our season is pretty fragile for the next month - need to win 2/3 out of our next 4 to really put us in the frame

As others have said we have started the last couple of years off with some good wins early - baby steps, lid on!


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

I think this week will be a huge test.
Perform in Tassie and I think we are every chance.

 

[George CantStandYa]

There doesn't seem to be that many really good teams at present

Even some of the top 8 from last year aren't looking that impressive

Exactly

 

[George CantStandYa]

We will not lose to the Hawks, settle

 

[Gtowncrow]

So if Port Carlton Freo aren’t any good and West Coast, North, Hawks, Gold Coast aren’t any good we are only competing with GWS, Saints, Richmond, Essendon, Dogs and Cats for one of the bottom 2-3 spots

We did lose to two of those so we have some work to do. Need to win the next two games and will be in a good position to play finals


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I don't mind your rationale and you make valid points.

I'm looking at the season through a different lens. I said it before but I really think our easiest pathway to finals is to make Adelaide Oval once again, our fortress.
We have 13 games at AO this year and winning 10 of them means we are looking for 3-4 wins away. Some away games are super tough (Melbourne and Collingwood at MCG. Cats in Geelong etc) but there will be opportunities throughout the season which are very realistic.
A strong follow up performance in Tasmania next round is important... We simply have to win...and should.

 

[pjcrows]

It'd be difficult to lose to Hawthorn. They are in genuine tank mode.

 

[radiojake]

It'd be difficult to lose to Hawthorn. They are in genuine tank mode.

and their best mid is out

 

[Gtowncrow]

Carlton was a defining game for how we would be looking this year, and we smashed it. The game against the Pies is the next challenge - win that, and we’re in an excellent spot for finals

Beating Hawthorn in TAS is predictable but then defeating Collingwood at home makes our season better than "excellent spot for finals" in my opinion.

Carlton and Collingwood are genuine scalps. In early season form, they were considered contenders.

I think your scenario of beating Collingwood places us in that level of consideration. Certainly the press will start to hypothesise.

You're right that the Collingwood game is huge. It's as big as the Carlton game was. But this time, we'd be elevating ourselves into a much higher conversation than "making finals".

I think we might be able to be the team this year that jumps into contention from outside the eight. Most seasons we see this happen and there is abundant evidence that says we are poised to make that leap.

If the injury gods are kind, I'm hopeful. Very hopeful...

 

[earlsta]

Yeah if we beat Collingwood then it’s on, don’t forget about the Burgess effect, the guy is world class.

Teams that are inexperienced as us don’t usually challenge top 4 though. It’ll be interesting to know Melbournes 2021 flag teams avg age and experience compared to ours.

 

[adelaidecrows]

If injuries hold I think we can make finals. From what I've seen, excuses are running out now. Our young players have become experienced now and the way they are playing is as good as anyone really.