Prediction Will we make finals in 2023? AFL responds with "...not on my watch"

[WeeBlake]

There doesn't seem to be that many really good teams at present

Even some of the top 8 from last year aren't looking that impressive

It’s 2016 again

 

[ABAB]

Are we really that young?

Just look at us compared to 4 of the other 5 teams who have played this week32 so far:

This week our lineup was:

Adelaide - Average Age 24.9, Average Games 81.6. Players under 50 games - 9

Fremantle - Average Age 24.9, Average games 71.4. Players under 50 games - are 7
Gold Coast - Average Age 25.0, Average games 88.9. Players under 50 games - 5
Carlton - Average Age 25.1, Average games 87.8. Players under 50 games - 8
Sydney - Average Age 24.3, Average Games 82.6. Players under 50 games - 11

Sydney made a GF, Freo made the finals and Carlton should have last year. All were favoured to make the finals this year.

From our team that thrashed Carlton - we only had 6 players of the 23 who have had less than 5 AFL preseasons. Murray, TT, Pedlar have all had 3 preseasons, Soligo and Rachele 2 preseasons and Mad Max 1.

5/6 of our elite group are all mature players now. Dawson, Laird, Walker, Fog, Rankine should be able to last a season. Rachele I would understand if he fades, especially with his increased midfield minutes so far this year. The next tier of our squad are all mature - Doedee, Keays, Sloane, Milera, O'brien, Smith, Hinge, Butts. Even our interchangeables (not automatic best 22) - Jones, McHenry, Murphy, Sholl, Mcadam, Schoenberg, Worell have all been in the system at least 4 years.

We had the most over 30s of all those teams you've listed who played with Sloane (33), Walker (33) and Smith (32), Fremantle only had Walter (32), GCS only had Swallow (30), Sydney had none and Carlton had Curnow (33) and Newman (30) so our core group is still very young and inexperience. I don't expect those who are 23 years old to play consistent football for the entire season just yet (Fogarty probably the outliner given his physique) compared to those in their prime at 25+ years old.

 

[Dangarman]

Looking at the draw, of the 19 18 games left, I'd call us rank outsiders for the Geelong @KP, Pies and Dees @ the 'G, and Lions @ the Gabba.

The other 15 14 games I'd give us at least a one in 3 chance of winning, some of them we'd even start favourites.
We win about half of them we get to 9 or 10 wins.

We win two thirds of them we get to 12 wins, which is probably not enough in a 23 game season.

We've already dropped 2 games against the teams in our 'contention bracket' (IMO at least...), so unless we collect some marks from one or two of the four 'extra credit' field trips, were going to struggle to get to the grade that gets us into Uni.

Nice three wins under a lot of media attention. Next week we gotta show that we haven't shoved our collective heads up our collective arses.

 

[MsTopG]

Already bought my finals tickets. It's just a matter of whether its here or interstate. I have us down for 15 wins. That means 12 of the next 18 we should win.
Hawks W
Collingwood W
Geelong L
St Kilda W
Bulldogs L
Lions L
Suns W
West coast W
Collingwood L
North W
Essendon W
Gws W
Melb L
Power ,W
Suns W
Lions L
Sydney W
West Coast W

 

[kirky]

Yeah if we beat Collingwood then it’s on, don’t forget about the Burgess effect, the guy is world class.

Teams that are inexperienced as us don’t usually challenge top 4 though. It’ll be interesting to know Melbournes 2021 flag teams avg age and experience compared to ours.

This was the list (not grand final side but gives a bit of comparison)

Melbourne Playing List for 2021 - Draftguru

www.draftguru.com.au

 

[John Who]

Currently, we are playing “good enough footy” comparing with other teams. However, we’ve only beaten one team above us (the Blues) and this was a home game. Winning away AND winning against teams above us is now the litmus test.

The 5 game stretch from end of April to end of May will be the big test for us:

• Pies (H)
• Cats (A)
• Saints (H)
• Dogs (A)
• Lions (H)

Win 3 out of 5 in the above games, and I think this would signify that we’re going to pose a serious threat this year.

 

[Gtowncrow]

Currently, we are playing “good enough footy” comparing with other teams. However, we’ve only beaten one team above us (the Blues) and this was a home game. Winning away AND winning against teams above us is now the litmus test.

The 5 game stretch from end of April to end of May will be the big test for us:

• Pies (H)
• Cats (A)
• Saints (H)
• Dogs (A)
• Lions (H)

Win 3 out of 5 in the above games, and I think this would signify that we’re going to pose a serious threat this year.

As difficult it will be, we need to find a way of winning at the MCG. Winning against Melbourne and/or Collingwood at the G elevates us into "contender" status. Until then, we're "hopeful finalists".

 

[John Who]

As difficult it will be, we need to find a way of winning at the MCG. Winning against Melbourne and/or Collingwood at the G elevates us into "contender" status. Until then, we're "hopeful finalists".

Yes, agree. Although I was talking about this year specifically. Even if we do make the finals, realistically we’re not likely to win the cup this year. So a win at the G would be an extreme bonus rather a must at this stage.

 

[Danger in Texas]

Yes, agree. Although I was talking about this year specifically. Even if we do make the finals, realistically we’re not likely to win the cup this year. So a win at the G would be an extreme bonus rather a must at this stage.

With Dawson in the middle, I reckon the most likely flag window for us now should be 25 or 26. By then we can grab a couple of experienced targets to fill some gaps, as well as allow Rachele/Soligo/Pedlar/Berry and any other guys that come on to fully develop

Should see our maximum potential for the talent we currently have around then

 

[CDC60]

It's a different AFL world but the Crows 1997 Grand Final team had an average age of 25. Five players were under the age of 22 but they just happened to include McLeod, Edwards, Goodwin and Kane Johnson. We played six players under the age of 22 on Thursday and perhaps some of Rachele, Thilthorpe, Soligo, Pedlar and Max will also be considered club greats by the time they finish. A group of young players with elite talent can change a club's football fortunes in a hurry - and that's what we currently have.

 

[phill5158]

Still far too early to tell, although yes our wins over Port, Fremantle and Carlton have been impressive, I want to see if we can do the same against sides like Melbourne, Collingwood, Sydney, St Kilda and Brisbane. I know we won't beat all those sides but if we could beat even two of those then I feel we are in a good spot for finals.

On SM-S918B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[ams4crows]

We need to win two of the Collingwood Geelong Stkilda stretch for me to actually believe it's possible

 

[Samcro24]

Port with an easy run coming up and the cats must be due for a block of home games, sitting 9th and 10th.

You'd think we'd be a prime candidate to fall out of the 8 - the other sides looking solid. The first two losses are major missed opportunities considering how GWS and Richmond are going.

Perhaps not this week though.

If we're any good we'll win, and win well. And yes I know we're playing at a bogey ground, but Hawthorn are shit. They've managed 302 points for the year (60 average) with a highest score of 80 (vs north). Could end up 4th this week with a bit of luck.

 

[AFC979810]

Currently, we are playing “good enough footy” comparing with other teams. However, we’ve only beaten one team above us (the Blues) and this was a home game. Winning away AND winning against teams above us is now the litmus test.

The 5 game stretch from end of April to end of May will be the big test for us:

• Pies (H)
• Cats (A)
• Saints (H)
• Dogs (A)
• Lions (H)

Win 3 out of 5 in the above games, and I think this would signify that we’re going to pose a serious threat this year.

For me what looms as the most intriguing contest is going to be that Saint Kilda game. At home - it will be a really good challenge for Nicks.

Under the boss the Saints have allowed only 41 goals over the first 5 rounds of the season. In comparison we have kicked 53 goals over the past 3 weeks. Something is going to have to give.

 

[Samcro24]

Currently, we are playing “good enough footy” comparing with other teams. However, we’ve only beaten one team above us (the Blues) and this was a home game. Winning away AND winning against teams above us is now the litmus test.

The 5 game stretch from end of April to end of May will be the big test for us:

• Pies (H)
• Cats (A)
• Saints (H)
• Dogs (A)
• Lions (H)

Win 3 out of 5 in the above games, and I think this would signify that we’re going to pose a serious threat this year.

• Pies (H) - reckon we'll go ok but they'll have our measure
• Cats (A) - never win there and they'll probably be building
• Saints (H) - expect to win even though they are going well
• Dogs (A) - winnable but easy to picture a dirty day
• Lions (H) - we've lost the last 4 to them including two here but expect to win

2-3

 

[GROTTO]

Currently, we are playing “good enough footy” comparing with other teams. However, we’ve only beaten one team above us (the Blues) and this was a home game. Winning away AND winning against teams above us is now the litmus test.

The 5 game stretch from end of April to end of May will be the big test for us:

• Pies (H)
• Cats (A)
• Saints (H)
• Dogs (A)
• Lions (H)

Win 3 out of 5 in the above games, and I think this would signify that we’re going to pose a serious threat this year.

Cannot pencil a win from any of those.

With that said we should be aiming to try and win at least two of those, Saints and Dogs are winnable games.

 

[George Kramer]

Port with an easy run coming up and the cats must be due for a block of home games, sitting 9th and 10th.

You'd think we'd be a prime candidate to fall out of the 8 - the other sides looking solid. The first two losses are major missed opportunities considering how GWS and Richmond are going.

Perhaps not this week though.

If we're any good we'll win, and win well. And yes I know we're playing at a bogey ground, but Hawthorn are s**t. They've managed 302 points for the year (60 average) with a highest score of 80 (vs north). Could end up 4th this week with a bit of luck.

Yep, if we play those 2 again tomorrow we’d win well.

If only Dawson was playing midfield from the preseason. Some posters might dismiss this decision but given what he’s produced we’d win those 2.

He would have helped stop the GWS midfield onslaught and Nicks wouldn’t have thought he could use Dawson in defence against Richmond and we would have played Butts.

 

[spexau]

Yep, if we play those 2 again tomorrow we’d win well.

If only Dawson was playing midfield from the preseason. Some posters might dismiss this decision but given what he’s produced we’d win those 2.

He would have helped stop the GWS midfield onslaught and Nicks wouldn’t have thought he could use Dawson in defence against Richmond and we would have played Butts.

Both Nicks and the players have lamented our defense in the first 2 weeks. If we scraped those 2 I don't think we win all of the following 3. It was a catalyst for defensive mindset.

 

[George Kramer]

Both Nicks and the players have lamented our defense in the first 2 weeks. If we scraped those 2 I don't think we win all of the following 3. It was a catalyst for defensive mindset.

Nah, we can still identify issues even in wins, well good clubs can

 

[GROTTO]

Always happy to be proven wrong by the Crows when I underestimate them, super impressive start to the season being 3 and 2. Its also not unrealistic to state that we could have genuinely been 5-0 after Round 5. GWS and Tigers were not only winnable games, but we were in a position to win them in the 2nd half of each game.

If we are to make Finals in 2023, beating the Hawks is simply just a must win game. After the Hawks its a challenging 5 game stretch.

 

[Rotayjay]

• Hawks (A)
• Magpies (H)
• Cats (A)
• Saints (H)
• Bulldogs (A)
• Lions (H)

I think all of these games are winnable except Geelong at Geelong - that fixture was a write-off even in our grand final year. Winning there is simply not a realistic expectation, but who cares? We still made a granny despite losing comfortably at Kardinia.

Winnable doesn't mean we'll win, of course. If we can beat either Collingwood or St Kilda, we're in a good position to play finals and it would show the Carlton game wasn't a fluke. Beat both and we're looking at winning a final, or better. But if we lose to Hawthorn, a crap side we should beat, just because the club and ground have been traditional bogeys, would be a worrying sign that we've drunk the bathwater and lack consistency.

 

[Dirty Bird]

I've been doing a ladder predictor weekly

Pre-season - Adelaide 10th at 13-10
After Rd 1 - Adelaide 12th at 11-12
After Rd 2 - Adelaide 12th at 9-14
After Rd 3 - Adelaide 7th at 12-11 Defeat St Kilda in Elimination, Lose to Sydney in Semi
After Rd 4 - Adelaide 5th at 15-8 Defeat Port Adelaide in Elimination, Defeat Carlton in Semi, Lose to Melbourne in Prelim
After Rd 5 - Adelaide 3rd at 17-6 Lose to Melbourne in Qualifying, Defeat Sydney in Semi, Lose to Collingwood in Prelim

 

[secondary]

It seems that way at this point, but things change quickly. I have no faith against Hawthorn in Tassie, even though on paper it's an easy win.
But heck it's been fun so far!

 

[Scorpus]

• Hawks (A)
• Magpies (H)
• Cats (A)
• Saints (H)
• Bulldogs (A)
• Lions (H)

I think all of these games are winnable except Geelong at Geelong - that fixture was a write-off even in our grand final year. Winning there is simply not a realistic expectation, but who cares? We still made a granny despite losing comfortably at Kardinia.

Winnable doesn't mean we'll win, of course. If we can beat either Collingwood or St Kilda, we're in a good position to play finals and it would show the Carlton game wasn't a fluke. Beat both and we're looking at winning a final, or better. But if we lose to Hawthorn, a crap side we should beat, just because the club and ground have been traditional bogeys, would be a worrying sign that we've drunk the bathwater and lack consistency.

Collingwood at home will be very tough. They travel well, especially to Adelaide, and are a powerful side. Their ruck issues and the injury to McStay may give us an opportunity but Collingwood will still be clear favorites.

We aren't beating Geelong at Kardina until they are a bottom 4 side.

Saints and Bulldogs games are both highly winnable. On current form I'd have them as 60/40 games in our favour.

Not sure what to make of the Brisbane game. If this was an away game we'd have no chance. At home, who knows. Brisbane could blow us off the park or have a stinker. Tough to call

 

[Rotayjay]

For the hell of it, I scribbled a very optimistic scenario by looking at opportunities for good wins. It's only remotely possible if we play at our best or near our best in every match. 16 wins is minor premiership territory, extremely unlikely for a squad at our stage. But a supporter can dream.