Will we make finals?

[dogwatch]

For those still interested, we have firmed from $5 to $3.5 to make it. Generally that means there has been plenty of punter support.

The round 23 game for for Pies v Blues with Cripps suspended is:
Pies $1.62
Blues $2.31

Interesting our round 23 game v Hawks is the exact same price.

Hope people don’t mind me referencing odds as I know it’s not for everyone. Just find it interesting to see if opinions match the odds

Those match odds equate to a 61.7% chance of the favourite winning and 43.3% of the outsider winning. That adds up to 105% which incorprates the bookies’ margin which is about 5% in this case (ignoring draws).

So pro rata that would mean a 58.8% chance of the favourite winning and 41.2% chance of losing.

That’s less than Scrag’s assumed 66% so if all games are about those odds our chances of making it would presumably be more like 12-13%. That’s about 7-1 ($8).

The $3.50 being offered seems like poor odds if my calculations are correct.

Disclaimer: I don’t gamble.

 

[dogwatch]

Note that the prospect of a draw complicates things. Havent done the analysis but I’d expect draws are generally bad for us.

 

[Al dente]

You'd rather the alternative of 9th or 10th?

I find it hard to believe if we did manage to make it you and every other supporter wouldn't feel some excitement in the lead up to the first final.

its an interesting point you made,

since the first Geelong game many weeks ago i felt our season was over, and i mentally let go of the season,

the way im watching games is much more relaxed, part of me wants a win and part wants us to bomb out so that we dont paper over the cracks,

although frustrated on the weekend i was kind of glad we lost, what i really dont want is for us to sneak in and win the first final for a top 6 finish, it kind of gives us a pass on the year which we shouldnt get, and reinforces Bevo's position on a number of issues.

in saying that, i would find it hard to not barick hard for us in a final, although i wouldnt be excited by it.

 

[TBOW]

It says a lot about how we are going at the moment that the thought of knocking carlton out of finals excites me more than the thought of getting in...

 

[Golden_6]

Those match odds equate to a 61.7% chance of the favourite winning and 43.3% of the outsider winning. That adds up to 105% which incorprates the bookies’ margin which is about 5% in this case (ignoring draws).

So pro rata that would mean a 58.8% chance of the favourite winning and 41.2% chance of losing.

That’s less than Scrag’s assumed 66% so if all games are about those odds our chances of making it would presumably be more like 12-13%. That’s about 7-1 ($8).

The $3.50 being offered seems like poor odds if my calculations are correct.

Disclaimer: I don’t gamble.

Well that's because all of the other games aren't those odds with that one being the shortest price. $3.50 is probably too short but it's not far off IMO. For example, we should take care of GWS very comfortably and Melbourne is very short priced favourite against Carlton this weekend.

 

[Dog 36]

its an interesting point you made,

since the first Geelong game many weeks ago i felt our season was over, and i mentally let go of the season,

the way im watching games is much more relaxed, part of me wants a win and part wants us to bomb out so that we dont paper over the cracks,

although frustrated on the weekend i was kind of glad we lost, what i really dont want is for us to sneak in and win the first final for a top 6 finish, it kind of gives us a pass on the year which we shouldnt get, and reinforces Bevo's position on a number of issues.

in saying that, i would find it hard to not barick hard for us in a final, although i wouldnt be excited by it.

I get what you are saying BUT I think that even if we sneak into the 8 (unlikely IMO) and we even win a final (even more unlikely) we wont be putting paper over the cracks and it wont reinforce anything of Bev's.

The lack of structure, game plan, performances against the better teams and confusion in footy areas cannot be ignored as damage is already done and plain for everyone to see.

Freo game was typical of our year with much on the line there was no appetite for the contest, there was confusion, we were disorganised, disinterested and disorientated.

IMO we won't make the 8.

 

[Sentinel]

Note that the prospect of a draw complicates things. Havent done the analysis but I’d expect draws are generally bad for us.

An unlikely draw is essentially as good as a win for Carlton and St Kilda, or a loss for us. Our percentage (assuming we make up that 1.7% over Carlton) is what otherwise puts us ahead if the results go our way.

 

[stevieg1969]

Toby Greene

4

Toby Greene

Age

31

Ht

182cm

Wt

85kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

22.7

5star

K

12.5

5star

HB

10.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.0

5star

G

1.2

4star

D

17.5

4star

K

9.5

4star

HB

8.0

4star

M

4.8

4star

T

1.0

2star

G

2.3

5star

D

26.6

5star

K

12.4

5star

HB

14.2

5star

M

4.8

5star

T

3.6

5star

G

0.0

1star

out for rest of season. Taranto also out against us.

 

[hutchy31]

Those match odds equate to a 61.7% chance of the favourite winning and 43.3% of the outsider winning. That adds up to 105% which incorprates the bookies’ margin which is about 5% in this case (ignoring draws).

So pro rata that would mean a 58.8% chance of the favourite winning and 41.2% chance of losing.

That’s less than Scrag’s assumed 66% so if all games are about those odds our chances of making it would presumably be more like 12-13%. That’s about 7-1 ($8).

The $3.50 being offered seems like poor odds if my calculations are correct.

Disclaimer: I don’t gamble.

I do gamble (responsibly) and I hate those odds personally. $5 was borderline but $3.50 is insane imo given we need to win twice, Carlton need to lose twice, and the Saints need to lose once. I understand that the opponents the blues and saints face make people think it's more likely than not that neither team makes it to 13 wins, and the assumption is that two wins from us and two losses from the blues make up the percentage difference comfortably. However, I just think that's an incredibly short price for an outcome that relies on several games falling a certain way.

I rarely bet on the dogs anyway, as I'm happy enough when they win. I look for value in our opponents (especially this year), although chickened out on Freo at about $3 which was a great get for those who did. I think we'll account for GWS this week and Melbourne beat Carlton, and then Hawks are probably about $2.50 to beat us in Rd 23 so I'll take some of that to cushion the blow if everything lines up for us and we fall over at the finish against them.

 

[Anja_Nees]

Not for the first time in recent years results are falling our way a bit and we might Bradbury our way in.

Honestly, if we make it we will have beaten every side outside the eight bar one, and three teams currently in the top four. That’s better than we did in 2020.

We’re probably about the eighth best side in it so it’s fair enough if we do make it, and I would always rather make it than not. It’s a good experience for younger players and helps with membership etc the next year.

 

[TiAn_]

Not for the first time in recent years results are falling our way a bit and we might Bradbury our way in.

Honestly, if we make it we will have beaten every side outside the eight bar one, and three teams currently in the top four. That’s better than we did in 2020.

We’re probably about the eighth best side in it so it’s fair enough if we do make it, and I would always rather make it than not. It’s a good experience for younger players and helps with membership etc the next year.

Plus it’d be nice to actually go to a Bulldogs final again…

 

[Custard Guts]

Look, exhilarating as it'd be stumbling arse-first into finals because the Blues aren't good enough, adore that we can't now simply be at peace with missing the cut and refocusing on next year, nuh-uh, we must be obliged to hang out our collective nuts over the mathematical chance fence for two more rounds knowing full well the likelihood of them being kicked very hard one more time.

Brace yourselves friends.

 

[hutchy31]

Look, exhilarating as it'd be stumbling arse-first into finals because the Blues aren't good enough, adore that we can't now simply be at peace with missing the cut and refocusing on next year, nuh-uh, we must be obliged to hang out our collective nuts over the mathematical chance fence for two more rounds knowing full well the likelihood of them being kicked very hard one more time.

Brace yourselves friends.

Scenario 1
Saints lose both
Dogs beat Giants, Blues lose to Dees
Dogs beat Hawks, but Blues beat Pies in a close one

Scenario 2
Saints squeak a win, Dogs beat Giants, Blues lose to Dees
Dogs beat Hawks, Blues lose to Pies, but Saints overcome a 5 goal deficit to reach finals against an apathetic Sydney team that already have fourth place sewn up because of other results

Scenario 3
Blues and Saints lose both, but Dogs also lose to Hawks - meaning a win would've put us in finals but we screwed it up

I can't see any other set of circumstances playing out, personally.

 

[Custard Guts]

Musing about the most cruel and unusual way we could miss and coming up with the Blues losing both their games by less than a kick while we win both of ours by similarly tight margins and falling short by 0.1% because we let Sicily jag a junk-time cheapie from outside fifty that finds it's way through six sets of hands in the goal square and bobbles through courtesy of a freakish leg break.

 

[hutchy31]

Not sure I've ever seen you with any positivity, at least this year so I see how you cannot possibly see it any other way.

The fact one of your scenarios has saints winning both games says it all.

Scenario one is probably closest to the mark, but I still think Collingwood lose this week then need to win next week for top 4. Carltank has been worse than us. With cripps it would still be advantage Collingwood. Without him it's harder (If he doesn't get off. If the tribunal has any integrity he won't)

Well, that post was fairly tongue-in-cheek as it was basically saying here are the three scenarios in which we'll get our hearts broken in the worst possible way. I will, however, admit to being glass half-empty this year given how it's played out and I don't think I'm flying solo there.

I actually think the most likely scenario is that we win both games, and Saints lose at least one so are out. So them it's just whether or not Carlton find a way to win one, probably the pies game. Carlton underdogs in both games but the prospect of them winning one of the two isn't that far-fetched.

I'm positive about a decent chunk of our list, the talent is there but imo they're just being failed by poor coaching and team selection - which has been an issue basically all year. But there are more than enough threads discussing that so I'll leave it there.

 

[Doggy]

Well, that post was fairly tongue-in-cheek as it was basically saying here are the three scenarios in which we'll get our hearts broken in the worst possible way. I will, however, admit to being glass half-empty this year given how it's played out and I don't think I'm flying solo there.

I actually think the most likely scenario is that we win both games, and Saints lose at least one so are out. So them it's just whether or not Carlton find a way to win one, probably the pies game. Carlton underdogs in both games but the prospect of them winning one of the two isn't that far-fetched.

I'm positive about a decent chunk of our list, the talent is there but imo they're just being failed by poor coaching and team selection - which has been an issue basically all year. But there are more than enough threads discussing that so I'll leave it there.

Don't think it's all coaching, there are a few pieces missing. Lobb would help more than people think but more is needed.

It's not far fetched for Carltank to win one at all. But on current form I don't see it but that could change

 

[Dog 36]

Don't think it's all coaching, there are a few pieces missing. Lobb would help more than people think but more is needed.

It's not far fetched for Carltank to win one at all. But on current form I don't see it but that could change

Form is always moments away.

Look at Tiggers many were saying they would drop one if not two in their last 4 games but they have found some sort of form or enough to get the job done.

IMO Carlton will one of their remaining two games they will just find enough energy, form and what is required to get it done even if it is an ugly win.

We had a real opportunity vs Freo to force Carlton to win both of their last two games but we just didn't want it that's and that's a bigger problem than what Carlton may or may not do.

 

[Doggy]

Form is always moments away.

Look at Tiggers many were saying they would drop one if not two in their last 4 games but they have found some sort of form or enough to get the job done.

IMO Carlton will one of their remaining two games they will just find enough energy, form and what is required to get it done even if it is an ugly win.

We had a real opportunity vs Freo to force Carlton to win both of their last two games but we just didn't want it that's and that's a bigger problem than what Carlton may or may not do.

Let's be honest, Brisbane is deplorable at the MCG. I have been saying it for years.. in fact they're crap away from home in general. That loss said more about them than Richmond who needed alot to go right and some dodgy umpiring to get them home.

Port lost their best forward to covid then stupidly dumped their second key forward and were relying on Dixon and Finlayson. Funnily enough they struggled to score.

If Richmond were playing Melbourne and Collingwood they'd probably have lost them both.

On another note, If we miss out we miss out, but it's embarrassing those that either want us to with some stupid idea it will inflict change that won't happen by scraping in

 

[Dog 36]

Let's be honest, Brisbane is deplorable at the MCG. I have been saying it for years.. in fact they're crap away from home in general. That loss said more about them than Richmond who needed alot to go right and some dodgy umpiring to get them home.

Port lost their best forward to covid then stupidly dumped their second key forward and were relying on Dixon and Finlayson. Funnily enough they struggled to score.

If Richmond were playing Melbourne and Collingwood they'd probably have lost them both.

On another note, If we miss out we miss out, but it's embarrassing those that either want us to with some stupid idea it will inflict change that won't happen by scraping in

Tiggers beat who they had to and when they had to all the other variables you mention are irrelevant IMO.

When you are not in control of your own destiny and you have been playing the way we have it will probably come back to bite you

 

[Doggy]

Tiggers beat who they had to and when they had to all the other variables you mention are irrelevant IMO.

When you are not in control of your own destiny and you have been playing the way we have it will probably come back to bite you

So all you have to fall back on is classic Bulldog supporter worst case scenario. Gotcha.

 

[Dog 36]

So all you have to fall back on is classic Bulldog supporter worst case scenario. Gotcha.

Not at all I see it as it is

Are we playing well? No
Is it in our own hands to make the 8 ? No
Can we still make it into the top 8 ? see above

 

[Doggy]

Not at all I see it as it is

Are we playing well? No
Is it in our own hands to make the 8 ? No
Can we still make it into the top 8 ? see above

The fact your last answer is effectively no says it all

 

[Dog 36]

The fact your last answer is effectively no says it all

Obviously we can make it but it is not in our hands and the insipid and confusing performance I witnessed on Saturday vs Freo is more of a concern than the mathematical possibilities of making the 8

More concerned how we are going rather than how Carlton, Saints etc etc will perform

 

[Anja_Nees]

Plus it’d be nice to actually go to a Bulldogs final again…

Had not realised since we discussed it that I had not been to one since the 2016 GF.

 

[Del165892]

I'd want something like 10:1 odds to bet on the Dogs making finals. I don't think we should start favourites against the Hawks in Tas.