Will we make finals?

[TiAn_]

When your finals hopes potentially rest on an opponent’s captain being suspended with two weeks to go you’ve had a bit of a mare.

 

[Libbaaaa]

If the favourites win out across both rounds we make it, which is insane.

 

[footscray1973]

Only 6 games to win the 2022 flag. Our last 6 game streak was the 2016 EF through to the GF replay in round 2, 2017.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Collingwood are $1.72 and Carlton $2.13 for round 23. Legitimate toss of the coin in my opinion

 

[Unorth]

Collingwood are $1.72 and Carlton $2.13 for round 23. Legitimate toss of the coin in my opinion

Watch Cripps get suspended for just 1 week so he's back in for the Collingwood game.

 

[Martyn_30_]

What possible reason do people think the side won't win the last two? The last two weeks have been quite reflective of where the sides sit on the ladder. How exactly do the Giants win in Melbourne with their putrid form with nothing on the line and Hawthorn who play a style that suits the awful zone defence and also have nothing on the line? Outside of the Adelaide game the side hasn't lost a game it should have won all year.

 

[dogwatch]

GWS - I’m hopeful of a win.
Hawthorn at UTAS - worries me.

And if the players think losing a must-win match against an inferior opponent might just bag them a new coach, well who knows how that might play out.

 

[The Inbetweener]

What possible reason do people think the side won't win the last two? The last two weeks have been quite reflective of where the sides sit on the ladder. How exactly do the Giants win in Melbourne with their putrid form with nothing on the line and Hawthorn who play a style that suits the awful zone defence and also have nothing on the line? Outside of the Adelaide game the side hasn't lost a game it should have won all year.

Hawks beat us down there last year, so there’s that.

The main thing for me overall though is I think Carlton are better than Collingwood, so I think they’ll win that game. We really needed to beat Freo to keep an advantage

 

[Doggy]

Hawks beat us down there last year, so there’s that.

The main thing for me overall though is I think Carlton are better than Collingwood, so I think they’ll win that game. We really needed to beat Freo to keep an advantage

Without most of their midfield and maybe no Cripps as well? Would be a good effort

 

[Ash1337]

Without most of their midfield and maybe no Cripps as well? Would be a good effort

No Cripps but Hewitt should be back for them. Their forward line is their problem though.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Without most of their midfield and maybe no Cripps as well? Would be a good effort

Taylor Adams is a big out for the Pies in my opinion. Just feel like the Blues will really lift for it and Collingwood’s run of close wins won’t last forever. Just my opinion though.

 

[Doggy]

Taylor Adams is a big out for the Pies in my opinion. Just feel like the Blues will really lift for it and Collingwood’s run of close wins won’t last forever. Just my opinion though.

Carltank have more out. Collingwood playing much better

 

[ScragCity]

If the favourites win out across both rounds we make it, which is insane.

The favourites winning all of six games is still an unlikely outcome though. Let's say each favourite has about a 66% chance to win (pretty generous), then the chance that the favourite wins in all six games is 8%.

This is why the betting agencies can profitably offer 5:1 odds on us making finals.

 

[dogwatch]

The favourites winning all of six games is still an unlikely outcome though. Let's say each favourite has about a 66% chance to win (pretty generous), then the chance that the favourite wins in all six games is 8%.

But is the ONLY way we can play finals if all favourites win those six games? Or would some other permutations also work for us? That could mean significantly more than 8% chance of making the eight.

Two of those games of course are ours against GWS and Hawthorn and they are clearly must-win. But are all the others as unambiguous? (CBF working through the ladder predictor myself )

 

[stevieg1969]

But is the ONLY way we can play finals if all favourites win those six games? Or would some other permutations also work for us? That could mean significantly more than 8% chance of making the eight.

Two of those games of course are ours against GWS and Hawthorn and they are clearly must-win. But are all the others as unambiguous? (CBF working through the ladder predictor myself )

The only interchangeable matches are those involving St.Kilda. They need to lose one of their matches v Brisbane and Sydney. If Carlton win or we lose a match then we are out.

 

[Blue1980]

Odds for you guys now $4 to make the 8, which I personally think is still great value.

We look cooked, our most realistic play is hoping Hawks beat you guys R23, and saints don’t win their last 2.

Next most likely way we make it is if Pies bubble is burst and they don’t keep winning every week by a goal and we wake up from our slumber with Kennedy and maybe Hewett back.

 

[Blue1980]

The only interchangeable matches are those involving St.Kilda. They need to lose one of their matches v Brisbane and Sydney. If Carlton win or we lose a match then we are out.

Or we could rely on Richmond losing to Hawthorn and Essendon

 

[Al dente]

are there still people who have watched us this year who still want us to play finals?

 

[ScragCity]

But is the ONLY way we can play finals if all favourites win those six games? Or would some other permutations also work for us? That could mean significantly more than 8% chance of making the eight.

Two of those games of course are ours against GWS and Hawthorn and they are clearly must-win. But are all the others as unambiguous? (CBF working through the ladder predictor myself )

According to another poster, we only need the Saints to lose one of the two games they are underdogs in. So if we stick to the 66% estimation:

Probability that Saints lose either of their two games:

0.66 + 0.66 - 0.66 x 0.66 = 0.88

Probability that Saints lose either of their two games AND the other four outcomes go our way:

0.88 x 0.66 x 0.66 x 0.66 x 0.66 = 0.16

So the likelihood of us making finals would be 16% if the favourite of each match had about a 66% chance of winning.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

According to another poster, we only need the Saints to lose one of the two games they are underdogs in. So if we stick to the 66% estimation:

Probability that Saints lose either of their two games:

0.66 + 0.66 - 0.66 x 0.66 = 0.88

Probability that Saints lose either of their two games AND the other four outcomes go our way:

0.88 x 0.66 x 0.66 x 0.66 x 0.66 = 0.16

So the likelihood of us making finals would be 16% if the favourite of each match had about a 66% chance of winning.

But each match we play we'll have a 66% chance to win - better than average.

And each match Saints play they'll have a 66% chance to lose.

So just take one game at a time and you can be 66% optimistic each time.

Lies damned lies and statistics

 

[Cudi]

are there still people who have watched us this year who still want us to play finals?

You'd rather the alternative of 9th or 10th?

I find it hard to believe if we did manage to make it you and every other supporter wouldn't feel some excitement in the lead up to the first final.

 

[TiAn_]

According to another poster, we only need the Saints to lose one of the two games they are underdogs in. So if we stick to the 66% estimation:

Probability that Saints lose either of their two games:

0.66 + 0.66 - 0.66 x 0.66 = 0.88

Probability that Saints lose either of their two games AND the other four outcomes go our way:

0.88 x 0.66 x 0.66 x 0.66 x 0.66 = 0.16

So the likelihood of us making finals would be 16% if the favourite of each match had about a 66% chance of winning.

16% is just a roll of the dice

 

[Charlie Bucket]

You'd rather the alternative of 9th or 10th?

I find it hard to believe if we did manage to make it you and every other supporter wouldn't feel some excitement in the lead up to the first final.

I’d say a lot of the supporters who are preferring us to not make finals, to make some sort of point, are more recent/younger fans that haven’t been following the club through some of its dirt poor periods of no success, no grand finals, no preliminary final wins, no amazing finals runs.

No all, but a lot would be too young or too new to know what following this team has been like. Up until 2016, it was decades of heartbreak and disappointment.

Too many take the last 7 years for granted. We won’t be making multiple GF’s and winning premierships every 8 years from here on in. You can guarantee that. And we certainly won’t be making finals every year. F***ing enjoy it while it’s here.

 

[Cudi]

I’d say a lot of the supporters who are preferring us to not make finals, to make some sort of point, are more recent/younger fans that haven’t been following the club through some of its dirt poor periods of no success, no grand finals, no preliminary final wins, no amazing finals runs.

No all, but a lot would be too young or too new to know what following this team has been like. Up until 2016, it was decades of heartbreak and disappointment.

Too many take the last 7 years for granted. We won’t be making multiple GF’s and winning premierships every 8 years from here on in. You can guarantee that. And we certainly won’t be making finals every year. F***ing enjoy it while it’s here.

Yep agree.

Like I get it, I had much higher expectations for us too at start of year and am disappointed where we are at now but playing finals is still playing finals!

Look at Carlton, their fans haven't been involved in it for 8 years and are desperate to just make it this year and we have some people actually saying they would rather us miss.

 

[ScragCity]

16% is just a roll of the dice

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