Will we make finals?

[bommena]

Disagree, although I respect the fact that you've gone into some detail with your reasons and not just re-stated a cliche about wallpaper and cracks.

My reasons (apart from the emotional and ingrained one of always wanting my team to win any time they are playing) are:

• Develop a winning culture and a winning mindset
• Self-belief ("we've been finalists for the last three years ... we're worthy") rather than an inferiority ninthscray sort of complex
• Important finals experience for those who have never played there before
• A belief or a hope that we might just go further than week one whoever and wherever we play. We are a bit dispirited, uncohesive and banged up at the moment but we saw in 2016 how the pre-finals bye provided a massive benefit to us even if those circumstances were somewhat different to today's. The point being that finals form is often different to H&A form, even recent H&A form.
• The chance that our walking wounded will have healed a bit by the time the EF comes around. Bont, Macrae, Naughton ... maybe others we're not aware of. If those three come out refreshed it could give us a real lift.
• The impact that a positive finish to the season might have on the decisions of one or two players who may be weighing up whether to go elsewhere (but not those who have already made up their mind).

That said, there are still the benefits you've mentioned if we happen to miss out. They are only minor ones but they will give me some small consolation if we don't make it. However ...

• If we get knocked out in week 1 of the finals I don't think it makes any practical difference to the duration of our off season. Maybe even the same for a week 2 final.
• The draft benefit is marginal. While it's always more comforting to have a higher draft pick the difference between pick 9 and pick 10 is almost inconsequential. Just ask any honest St Kilda fan about whether having higher picks has been of benefit to them over the last decade. It's much much more to do with the eye and acumen of the list managers.
• The better draw doesn't come into it because as noted above you are in the same pool of six whether you finish 7th or 12th.

However the draw DOES comes into it if we happen to win week 1. We would automatically be elevated into the top group (1st to 6th).
That raises another challenging question for the diehard WB supporter: if we win week 1 do you want us to win week 2? And if we win week 2 well of course we'd want to win week 3 and play in the GF. Where do you stop wanting us to lose?

In the end though, it's not so much driven by the rationalisations as by the gut feeling. That emotional pull.
I just want us to make the finals.

Agree . Even it’s a preseason game . I just want to win regardless wherever or whichever position or how ugly we win Singular reason is this “ Winning culture “.

 

[X_box_X]

I genuinely hope that we don't make finals.

The benefits of not making finals are a longer break, a better draw next year and a better draft pick, among others. I don't believe we are any chance of achieving any success in this year's finals series and I don't think there's anything to be gained by making it. I suspect that the benefits of a game or two of finals experience into our younger players are overstated.

I believe that we are a much better chance at
achieving real success next year and I think missing finals this year improves our chances next season.

Ultimately I want as much success as possible for the club, just like I presume all of you do. The difference of opinion is that I believe we are better placed to have more overall success if we end our season early this year. I'm not advocating that we tank or anything like that either. I just think it would be a better outcome for us if we miss and therefore I find myself hoping that we do.

The 'couldn't care less' attitude you employ for whether we play finals or not is nonsense.

It is ALWAYS better to play finals. ALWAYS.

In order of importance:

1. If you play finals, you're a chance to win the flag. That goes without saying. As unlikely as that seems, I have learnt never to throw in the towel while Bevo is our coach.

2. Finals experience. This will hold us in good stead for the future. How awesome will it be getting at least one finals Game into the likes of JUH, Darcy, West and Richards?

3. Carlton miss out. For the LOLs. Even if you don't agree with the first two points, you have to admit this would be hilarious.

 

[X_box_X]

I am more confident beating Hawthorn now than what I was 60 seconds ago.

For some reason I'd completely forgotten that we avenged our Tassie loss to the Hawks by dismantling Essendon there three weeks later.

 

[Chalky White]

The 'couldn't care less' attitude you employ for whether we play finals or not is nonsense.

It is ALWAYS better to play finals. ALWAYS.

In order of importance:

1. If you play finals, you're a chance to win the flag. That goes without saying. As unlikely as that seems, I have learnt never to throw in the towel while Bevo is our coach.

2. Finals experience. This will hold us in good stead for the future. How awesome will it be getting at least one finals Game into the likes of JUH, Darcy, West and Richards?

3. Carlton miss out. For the LOLs. Even if you don't agree with the first two points, you have to admit this would be hilarious.

haha agree it would be hilarious if they were to miss, imagine the melts.
I guess I hear what people are saying, you never should want to lose. I just don't think it would be the worst thing in the world.
In other years when we have had good runs at it in the finals from low in the 8 we were in far better form than this year. I just don't see us doing any damage to any other team in the 8.
We are a bit of an enigma really. If we make the 8 it will be a bit like Essendon last year. We will be there, but......

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Motivation to kick the blues out of finals is high in the words of the late John Elliott it would continue there tragic history this century.

 

[Merlins Revenge]

I think we will smack the Hawks in Tassie, especially with Mitchell Lewis

2

Mitchell Lewis

Age

26

Ht

199cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.5

2star

K

5.9

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.3

3star

G

1.2

4star

D

4.3

1star

K

2.8

1star

HB

1.5

1star

M

0.8

1star

T

0.3

1star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.6

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.6

3star

and Jiath being out. Takes away their scoring and run out of defence.

Collingwood beating Carlton I’m not sure about. I feel that Carlton have them covered in the midfield and their forward line is imposing. Hopefully Degoey plays. Thankfully the Pies lost today, making them more hungry and motivated to take a top 4 spot.

 

[bobs head soup]

Be nice to play a final Melbourne. Haven’t had one since 2016.

Almost certainly going to be in Perth if at all though.

Last time we had to play an elimination final in Perth we were written off as almost no hope. That ended up being a pretty fair month.

 

[Rocketsurgery]

I think we will smack the Hawks in Tassie, especially with Mitchell Lewis

2

Mitchell Lewis

Age

26

Ht

199cm

Wt

99kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

9.5

2star

K

5.9

2star

HB

3.6

3star

M

3.4

3star

T

1.3

3star

G

1.2

4star

D

4.3

1star

K

2.8

1star

HB

1.5

1star

M

0.8

1star

T

0.3

1star

G

0.3

3star

D

8.6

3star

K

4.6

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

2.6

3star

T

1.8

4star

G

0.6

3star

and Jiath being out. Takes away their scoring and run out of defence.

Collingwood beating Carlton I’m not sure about. I feel that Carlton have them covered in the midfield and their forward line is imposing. Hopefully Degoey plays. Thankfully the Pies lost today, making them more hungry and motivated to take a top 4 spot.

If Collingwood lose next week, they will likely finish 6th and play the Tigers in an elimination final according to my attempt at ladder predictor. But if they win next week they likely finish 4th and play a qualifying final against Geelong with a double chance. Both Collingwood and Carlton have a huge incentive to win.

Sent from my SM-G986B using Tapatalk

 

[Norm De Guerre]

We need to make it to the finals if for no other reason than avoiding the humiliation of playing in a grand final and then missing out completely the following season. No slight bump in draft picks, extra weeks off or any other minor benefit would make up for the effect that missing out will have on the cub, its players and supporters.

 

[Spiritof82]

We need to make it to the finals if for no other reason than avoiding the humiliation of playing in a grand final and then missing out completely the following season. No slight bump in draft picks, extra weeks off or any other minor benefit would make up for the effect that missing out will have on the cub, its players and supporters.

We've done it 3 times already and I can't see the trend changing this year

 

[The Inbetweener]

Blues $1.92
Pies $1.92

Toss of the coin

 

[X_box_X]

Doing a ladder predictor based purely on TAB current lines for round 23:

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

I am in two minds about the boys playing finals. If we play finals it puts our history of not making finals after a GF appearance into the rubbish bin.

But, the team is unbalanced and it’s a high stakes off season, even a draft pick two spots down can alter our negotiations. Also, the team has not looked right since the GF and need a good rest from footy, along with Bevo.

 

[bobs head soup]

Blues $1.92
Pies $1.92

Toss of the coin

Seems like a strange market. Collingwood are 10-1 over the last half of the season whilst Carlton are 4-7.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Seems like a strange market. Collingwood are 10-1 over the last half of the season whilst Carlton are 4-7.

Reactionary to their performances over the weekend. Blues play like they did Sat night and they are a big chance

 

[BIG_BONTS]

Collingwood isn't a top 8 side. They'll lose against Carlton and go out in straight sets. Been very fortunate that their draw building confidence but I just don't see it with the team doing anything this year or next.

Edit: they've beaten a bunch of bottom 4 sides by a kick or two. Wowee

 

[miller80]

Can see Carlton beating Collingwood next week

 

[Palace03]

Always better to play finals, would be quite incredible to make it after the train wreck of a year we've had.

Couple of spots in the draft or starting a week earlier makes zero difference. Get in there and see what happens.

If I'm reading right we most likely play Freo at Optus if we get there, can't play Geelong, Collingwood or Richmond week 1. An inexperienced finals team in Freo, even over there wouldn't be the worst result.

 

[The Inbetweener]

Collingwood isn't a top 8 side. They'll lose against Carlton and go out in straight sets. Been very fortunate that their draw building confidence but I just don't see it with the team doing anything this year or next.

Edit: they've beaten a bunch of bottom 4 sides by a kick or two. Wowee

This has generally been my view too, just hope Carlton fired their best shot already. Tend to think they’ll account for Collingwood quite well.

 

[Anja_Nees]

This has generally been my view too, just hope Carlton fired their best shot already. Tend to think they’ll account for Collingwood quite well.

A lot of the sides they beat in their winning streak were lowly teams, but it also included Melbourne (twice), Freo and Carlton.

Of course Carlton are in with a show, but you don’t win 15 in a season by accident.

 

[bobs head soup]

Collingwood isn't a top 8 side. They'll lose against Carlton and go out in straight sets. Been very fortunate that their draw building confidence but I just don't see it with the team doing anything this year or next.

Edit: they've beaten a bunch of bottom 4 sides by a kick or two. Wowee

Don't agree, they have won more than lost against top 8 teams, including 2 wins against Melbourne.

Their only losses against top 4 teams were a 13 point loss to Geelong and a 7 point loss to Brisbane in Brisbane.

I don't know how they'll go in finals but they are a decent team who will be competitive.

 

[Maverick Dog]

Bevo has played this like the mastermind he is. Been playing such a poor defensive system that no clubs fear us and take us for granted. At training we have perfected our man on man defence that we will slowly switch to.

Bevo has been playing possum all year and we will go all the way. Other teams will not know what hits them.

unfortunateky he struggle wth maths so got a little mixed up on how many wins required.

Alternative he is now just a poor coach who has only been good when surrounded by good assistants.

 

[Oliver G]

Not gonna win many finals leaking 120+ uncontested marks...

Average Uncontested Marks Conceded (R18-R22)

 

[Dazb86]

Not gonna win many finals leaking 120+ uncontested marks...

Average Uncontested Marks Conceded (R18-R22)

View attachment 1477562

The 5m backing off the mark working wonders

 

[Optimistic Dog]

What a big turnaround in the Blues favour Cripps In when he was out and De Goey out if he does not get up. That is probably 3 to 4 goals advantage to the blues.