Will we make finals?

[Optimistic Dog]

The enigma that is the Bulldogs edition 2022

Round 1 Demons. In the game up to last 10 mins. Gave away 4 goal start and kicked 8 in a row but Dees to good and won by 26 pts.
Round 2 Blues Got 6 goals behind but squandered a lot chances in the last quarter. We win with straighter kicking lost by 12 pts
Round 3 Swans Won by 11 pts kicked bad could have won by more
Round 4 Tigers Biggest lost 38 pts caused by terrible kicking we had 2 more scoring shots
Round 5 Roos Won by 68 pts but who does not smash the roos
Round 6 Crows Lost by a point. Could have snatched it but did not deserve. Terrible selection got smashed in the air. Costly loss at home to a poor team.
Round 7 Bombers Won 32 pts but who does not beat the bombers
Round 8 Port Lost 17 finished with 1 on the bench tried hard but did not deserve to win
Round 9 Pies Won 48 Probably one of best games for the season
Round 10 Suns Won 19 Always in control but could not put them away. Missed some easy shots early
Round 11 WCE Smashed them by 101 pts but who does not smash them
Round 12 Cats Again they beat us, smashed us early helped by some bad plays by us. Controlled 2 quarters but could not peg them back lost by12 pts.


So out of our 6 losses there is only 2 games where did not look a real chance in the last quarter. The tigers due to terrible kicking for goal and Port with 3 players injured and down rotations.

However the way it looks we are capable of winning any game but finding extremely hard to win must win games. We will need to win 7 of the last 10 and with our draw that looks most unlikely.

 

[footscray1973]

The enigma that is the Bulldogs edition 2022

Round 1 Demons. In the game up to last 10 mins. Gave away 4 goal start and kicked 8 in a row but Dees to good and won by 26 pts.
Round 2 Blues Got 6 goals behind but squandered a lot chances in the last quarter. We win with straighter kicking lost by 12 pts
Round 3 Swans Won by 11 pts kicked bad could have won by more
Round 4 Tigers Biggest lost 38 pts caused by terrible kicking we had 2 more scoring shots
Round 5 Roos Won by 68 pts but who does not smash the roos
Round 6 Crows Lost by a point. Could have snatched it but did not deserve. Terrible selection got smashed in the air. Costly loss at home to a poor team.
Round 7 Bombers Won 32 pts but who does not beat the bombers
Round 8 Port Lost 17 finished with 1 on the bench tried hard but did not deserve to win
Round 9 Pies Won 48 Probably one of best games for the season
Round 10 Suns Won 19 Always in control but could not put them away. Missed some easy shots early
Round 11 WCE Smashed them by 101 pts but who does not smash them
Round 12 Cats Again they beat us, smashed us early helped by some bad plays by us. Controlled 2 quarters but could not peg them back lost by12 pts.


So out of our 6 losses there is only 2 games where did not look a real chance in the last quarter. The tigers due to terrible kicking for goal and Port with 3 players injured and down rotations.

However the way it looks we are capable of winning any game but finding extremely hard to win must win games. We will need to win 7 of the last 11 and with our draw that looks most unlikely.

Rounds 2, 6 and 8. Should have won 2. Might not have deserved 6 and 8, but should never have lost either of those anyway the way those opponets were travelling at the time, and Crows at Mars.

VFL/AFL Grand Finals:

1954 premiers.
1955 finish 5th, miss finals by 0.6%. Were in the top 4 rounds 1-5 and 7-14 (18 round season)

1961 runners up.
1962 finish 5th, 2 games and 4.4% adrift of 4th. Were in the top 4 rounds 1-2 and 4-10 (18 round season)

2016 premiers.
2017 finish 10th, 1 game and 8.6% behind 8th. In the top 8 in rounds 1-2, 4-12 and 20 (23 round/22 game season).

2021 runners up.
2022 ? So far have been in the top 8 for round 11 only.

On the plus side, we waited 7 years between grand finals 1954-61, but only 5 years between 2016 and 2021. On that trend, we should win our next flag, then only wait 3 years to lose another GF.

 

[Doggy]

We have a surprisingly decent percentage - only 3 times in the 2000s have we finished a season with a better percentage - last year, 2009 and 2010.

Sadly, I suspect that % will take a beating on the run home, and concur with many recent posts.

I tend to steer clear of ladder predictors, but just flew through one for the hell of it, ended up like this:

View attachment 1420076
Tipped us to win Round 14 v Giants, Round 15 v Hawks, a surprise Round 18 v Saints and Round 22 v Giants again.

I'm not excited about that top 4, or even the entire top 8 - hopefully will ride Dockers all the way to the flag.

Collingwood with 14 wins .. LOL

There's probably only one top 8 spot for Collingwood and Richmond. Saints won't drop out

 

[footscray1973]

Collingwood with 14 wins .. LOL

There's probably only one top 8 spot for Collingwood and Richmond. Saints won't drop out

Pies have GWS, Suns, Crows, Bombers, North, Port to come - all below them. Plus Blues, who they have already beaten.
They're on 7 wins, with 6 highly winnable games to come. Plus Blues.

Saints have Lions twice, Swans twice, Blues, Freo and Cats to come. Plus us at Marvel, and we're always a chance against Saints, and we will have a number of players back by then as well.

 

[Doggy]

Pies have GWS, Suns, Crows, Bombers, North, Port to come - all below them. Plus Blues, who they have already beaten.
They're on 7 wins, with 6 highly winnable games to come. Plus Blues.

Saints have Lions twice, Swans twice, Blues, Freo and Cats to come. Plus us at Marvel, and we're always a chance against Saints, and we will have a number of players back by then as well.

Collingwood simply won't win them all. Should have lost to Hawthorn

Saints won't drop out

 

[dogwatch]

Rounds 2, 6 and 8. Should have won 2. Might not have deserved 6 and 8, but should never have lost either of those anyway the way those opponets were travelling at the time, and Crows at Mars.

VFL/AFL Grand Finals:

1954 premiers.
1955 finish 5th, miss finals by 0.6%. Were in the top 4 rounds 1-5 and 7-14 (18 round season)

1961 runners up.
1962 finish 5th, 2 games and 4.4% adrift of 4th. Were in the top 4 rounds 1-2 and 4-10 (18 round season)

2016 premiers.
2017 finish 10th, 1 game and 8.6% behind 8th. In the top 8 in rounds 1-2, 4-12 and 20 (23 round/22 game season).

2021 runners up.
2022 ? So far have been in the top 8 for round 11 only.

On the plus side, we waited 7 years between grand finals 1954-61, but only 5 years between 2016 and 2021. On that trend, we should win our next flag, then only wait 3 years to lose another GF.

No, on that logic (Flag, then next GF in only five sevenths of the time then twiddle thumbs waiting for a flag opportunity again) we only have to wait 44 years (5/7 x 62) until our next flag. That will be in 2060 ... so now only 38 to go .

I'll be there!

 

[Maverick Dog]

In 3 or 4 weeks we may have our strongest team on the field since early 2021 and I would argue man on man it is the best 22 in the league.

we may have Bruce, JJ, Hunter, MCLean and a fitter smarter JUH player the third tall. Out goes McComb, McNeil, Scott, Khamis.

The players grow in confidence and Bont gets over his injury. Even Bevo‘s pathetic coaching probably could not get in the way. This will then gloss over the fact Bevo cannot coach and he will keep his spot.
Do I think this will happen, probably not but Bruce and JUH are natural forwards and confidence can do wonders

 

[doggies ftw]

Rounds 2, 6 and 8. Should have won 2. Might not have deserved 6 and 8, but should never have lost either of those anyway the way those opponets were travelling at the time, and Crows at Mars.

VFL/AFL Grand Finals:

1954 premiers.
1955 finish 5th, miss finals by 0.6%. Were in the top 4 rounds 1-5 and 7-14 (18 round season)

1961 runners up.
1962 finish 5th, 2 games and 4.4% adrift of 4th. Were in the top 4 rounds 1-2 and 4-10 (18 round season)

2016 premiers.
2017 finish 10th, 1 game and 8.6% behind 8th. In the top 8 in rounds 1-2, 4-12 and 20 (23 round/22 game season).

2021 runners up.
2022 ? So far have been in the top 8 for round 11 only.

On the plus side, we waited 7 years between grand finals 1954-61, but only 5 years between 2016 and 2021. On that trend, we should win our next flag, then only wait 3 years to lose another GF.

Probably flattering overview of us we’ve been pretty bloody poor for large parts of almost every game

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Sometimes you need to take a step back, so you can take two steps forward.

Worked for Melbourne, worked for Richmond, why can’t it work for us.

 

[hutchy31]

Sometimes you need to take a step back, so you can take two steps forward.

Worked for Melbourne, worked for Richmond, why can’t it work for us.

Yeah, it's interesting recent precedent. There would be something to be said for a full preseason, no real COVID impacts and an easier fixture.

It would be interesting for those teams you mention how much of their success they would ascribe to coaching/footy department resets too though. Not sure we'll bring in the assistant/experienced coaches that they did.

Aside from a couple of list issues (we all know what they are, I think), our main challenges imo are in approach to team selection and gameplan. If those can be reframed in the offseason then maybe there's significant improvement coming.

 

[stefcep]

Yeah, it's interesting recent precedent. There would be something to be said for a full preseason, no real COVID impacts and an easier fixture.

It would be interesting for those teams you mention how much of their success they would ascribe to coaching/footy department resets too though. Not sure we'll bring in the assistant/experienced coaches that they did.

Aside from a couple of list issues (we all know what they are, I think), our main challenges imo are in approach to team selection and gameplan. If those can be reframed in the offseason then maybe there's significant improvement coming.

In other words, its the coach.

 

[Claudonious]

In other words, its the coach.

A league average injury list or better would also help. Long term injuries in key positions tend to impact performance.

Keith,English,Bruce,Hunter,McLean,JJ,Hannan,Martin.

And before people bag Martin and Hannan - you can’t bang on about structure and then criticise players who form the structure.

I don’t care what anyone says - take the equivalent out of any team and they struggle.

Yes, I would have made different team selections - but I don’t know what unknown factors have influenced the decisions that were made.

If we get some health into our list - look out.

Perhaps the fitness staff need the microscope on them , not the coach.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Al dente]

for various reasons we have found ourselves in a situation where we are accepting of deficits (Bevo) in our team and its costing us. weve had the deficits one at a time or in pairs or threes but now its built up to a perfect storm of deficiencies. Our list is unbalanced and we need to bottom out this year and start to address it. that we have still been in games is a credit to the players.

1. Too many forwards who arent natural goal kickers (resting mids, excess half backs moved forward, VFL feel good stories, Dunkley, scott, McComb)
2. Poor ruck tapwork (no need to go over this again, we all know)
3. Mediocre tall backs (Cordy, Gardner, TOB)
4. at least one sub standard wingman (1 wing seems to be permanantly reserved for one of Bevo's VFL rookies)
5. No second tall forward (that should solve itself in time)

 

[Doggy]

for various reasons we have found ourselves in a situation where we are accepting of deficits (Bevo) in our team and its costing us. weve had the deficits one at a time or in pairs or threes but now its built up to a perfect storm of deficiencies. Our list is unbalanced and we need to bottom out this year and start to address it. that we have still been in games is a credit to the players.

1. Too many forwards who arent natural goal kickers (resting mids, excess half backs moved forward, VFL feel good stories, Dunkley, scott, McComb)
2. Poor ruck tapwork (no need to go over this again, we all know)
3. Mediocre tall backs (Cordy, Gardner, TOB)
4. at least one sub standard wingman (1 wing seems to be permanantly reserved for one of Bevo's VFL rookies)
5. No second tall forward (that should solve itself in time)

Bottom out? What crap

 

[Next Waiting]

We can still finish anywhere between 6th and 8th, Smith or no Smith. But we need a second ruck.

Season is far from done...yet.

 

[Al dente]

Bottom out? What crap

thanks for the insightful retort Doggy, gives us much food for thought

We can still finish anywhere between 6th and 8th, Smith or no Smith. But we need a second ruck.

Season is far from done...yet.

i agree that we can, and if this was 2021 that would be an ok result and something to strive for, but our chances of winning the flag are remote at best and after a grandfinal in 2021 that was the goal this year. we need to have one eye on winning it in 2023

im not suggesting tanking, id be going full throttle, but:

id bring back the knee recos slowly and safely,
give bont plenty of time forward
play JUH the rest of the year, get a few games into bedendo, darcy, and Jones
give Smith and Hunter the time they need (Smith's performance will probably be down anyway given the way he responded to the Brereton criticism last year)

 

[Next Waiting]

thanks for the insightful retort Doggy, gives us much food for thought

i agree that we can, and if this was 2021 that would be an ok result and something to strive for, but our chances of winning the flag are remote at best and after a grandfinal in 2021 that was the goal this year. we need to have one eye on winning it in 2023

im not suggesting tanking, id be going full throttle, but:

id bring back the knee recos slowly and safely,
give bont plenty of time forward
play JUH the rest of the year, get a few games into bedendo, darcy, and Jones
give Smith and Hunter the time they need (Smith's performance will probably be down anyway given the way he responded to the Brereton criticism last year)

My goal every year is to make finals. What happens after that depends on a lot of things but every time you make finals you're a chance. No chance if you don't.

I disagree with Bont forward. He can't influence the game a lot from there. He should be in the midfield with cameos forward in my view. Midfield anywhere from wing to centre.

Not at all in favour of playing the novices unless they will help us to win. If we're out of it by Round 20, then maybe

 

[Doggy]

thanks for the insightful retort Doggy, gives us much food for thought

i agree that we can, and if this was 2021 that would be an ok result and something to strive for, but our chances of winning the flag are remote at best and after a grandfinal in 2021 that was the goal this year. we need to have one eye on winning it in 2023

im not suggesting tanking, id be going full throttle, but:

id bring back the knee recos slowly and safely,
give bont plenty of time forward
play JUH the rest of the year, get a few games into bedendo, darcy, and Jones
give Smith and Hunter the time they need (Smith's performance will probably be down anyway given the way he responded to the Brereton criticism last year)

You do realise that bottoming out is a large rebuild? That would be the stupidest thing the club could do

 

[Next Waiting]

The Grand Final has been the 4th game of a finals series for 8 teams since 2005. Swans 2005, West Coast 2006, Hawthorn 2015, Dogs 2016, Collingwood 2018, GWS 2019, Geelong 2020 and Dogs 2021. 4 flags and 4 losses. 50% flag/loss

Only 3 teams have made the grand final from outside the 4. Dogs 2016, GWS 2019 and Dogs 2021. 33% flag/loss.

Of the 5 teams to play 4 finals matches during the bye era, only one has won the flag. 20% flag/loss. Dogs 2016

You are clearly a better chance of winning a flag from inside the top 4 and playing 3 games but.....Dogs (50%).

 

[Optimistic Dog]

I think the narrative if not already will be very soon is what can we get out of the season to set us for next season. We are not going to play finals with our draw and our best performed player looking at longer than 2 weeks out and the drug issuing hanging over him the club. The season has just been a disaster after starting with high expectations. Some of the issues

Bevo's bad press. He was never going to win the PR battle we did not need the distraction.
Bont playing injured
Bad kicking for goal
Hunters issues
Other injuries including English, JJ and Bruce last season
Now the Bailey Smith

3

Bailey Smith

Age

24

Ht

185cm

Wt

86kg

Pos.

M/F

Career

Season

Last 5

D

18.3

5star

K

8.5

3star

HB

9.8

5star

M

2.3

2star

T

3.8

5star

CL

2.7

4star

D

19.8

5star

K

9.6

4star

HB

10.2

5star

M

1.8

2star

T

3.2

4star

CL

3.2

4star

D

14.8

4star

K

7.6

3star

HB

7.2

5star

M

2.0

3star

T

3.4

5star

CL

1.6

4star

drug and headbutt incidents
JUH slow development.
Game Plan


Once we go down the path of we are not going to make finals which happens if lose to either the Hawks or GWS.

Bevo got to decide on one ruck or 2
I think when Bruce comes back and hopefully JUH deserves games, the Naughton back is worth a try. He could become the best defender in the comp.
Sam Darcy plays the last few games and Bebendo and Jones get a taste
Bont and any other players needing ops have them early do not play last few games

 

[Next Waiting]

I think the narrative if not already will be very soon is what can we get out of the season to set us for next season. We are not going to play finals with our draw and our best performed player looking at longer than 2 weeks out and the drug issuing hanging over him the club. The season has just been a disaster after starting with high expectations. Some of the issues

Bevo's bad press. He was never going to win the PR battle we did not need the distraction.
Bont playing injured
Bad kicking for goal
Hunters issues
Other injuries including English, JJ and Bruce last season
Now the Bailey Smith drug and headbutt incidents
JUH slow development.
Game Plan


Once we go down the path of we are not going to make finals which happens if lose to either the Hawks or GWS.

Bevo got to decide on one ruck or 2
I think when Bruce comes back and hopefully JUH deserves games, the Naughton back is worth a try. He could become the best defender in the comp.
Sam Darcy plays the last few games and Bebendo and Jones get a taste
Bont and any other players needing ops have them early do not play last few games

Not so OD. Losing to either Hawks or GWS does not make it impossible for us to play finals. In my view, only when it becomes mathematically impossible do we give people who we don't think can contribute in or aren't ready to play a final, a "taste".

 

[doggies ftw]

Not so OD. Losing to either Hawks or GWS does not make it impossible for us to play finals. In my view, only when it becomes mathematically impossible do we give people who we don't think can contribute in or aren't ready to play a final, a "taste".

Playing finals and tumbling out week 1 would be the worst possible thing that could happen, would paper over so many serious issues. We’re not winning the flag this year not a chance, either way we’re not making finals anyway so probably irrelevant.

Playing guys like McComb & Scott to try and force our way there when we have other options that can use the game time like Bedendo etc would be crazy.

The years a write off, let’s use it for development. As much as it’ll pain Bevo to do we know his preferred structure doesn’t work - let’s just try something different, 2 rucks another 10 games into Sweet so we know a bit more about him either way. JUH plays every week, along side two other tall forwards (Naughty, Schache/Bruce) Bedendo should get the other wing spot until Hunter comes back, give Arty a taste.

 

[Doggy]

Playing finals and tumbling out week 1 would be the worst possible thing that could happen, would paper over so many serious issues. We’re not winning the flag this year not a chance, either way we’re not making finals anyway so probably irrelevant.

Playing guys like McComb & Scott to try and force our way there when we have other options that can use the game time like Bedendo etc would be crazy.

The years a write off, let’s use it for development. As much as it’ll pain Bevo to do we know his preferred structure doesn’t work - let’s just try something different, 2 rucks another 10 games into Sweet so we know a bit more about him either way. JUH plays every week, along side two other tall forwards (Naughty, Schache/Bruce) Bedendo should get the other wing spot until Hunter comes back, give Arty a taste.

Playing players who don't deserve it to give them a 'taste' doesn't really aid things either

 

[Mantis Toboggan]

I think the narrative if not already will be very soon is what can we get out of the season to set us for next season. We are not going to play finals with our draw and our best performed player looking at longer than 2 weeks out and the drug issuing hanging over him the club. The season has just been a disaster after starting with high expectations. Some of the issues

Bevo's bad press. He was never going to win the PR battle we did not need the distraction.
Bont playing injured
Bad kicking for goal
Hunters issues
Other injuries including English, JJ and Bruce last season
Now the Bailey Smith drug and headbutt incidents
JUH slow development.
Game Plan


Once we go down the path of we are not going to make finals which happens if lose to either the Hawks or GWS.

Bevo got to decide on one ruck or 2
I think when Bruce comes back and hopefully JUH deserves games, the Naughton back is worth a try. He could become the best defender in the comp.
Sam Darcy plays the last few games and Bebendo and Jones get a taste
Bont and any other players needing ops have them early do not play last few games

I think the only way we stuff up this season more is by moving Naughton back. He is possibly the most dangerous key forward in the comp and only getting better. Absolutely insane suggestion.

 

[Next Waiting]

Playing finals and tumbling out week 1 would be the worst possible thing that could happen, would paper over so many serious issues. We’re not winning the flag this year not a chance, either way we’re not making finals anyway so probably irrelevant.

Playing guys like McComb & Scott to try and force our way there when we have other options that can use the game time like Bedendo etc would be crazy.

The years a write off, let’s use it for development. As much as it’ll pain Bevo to do we know his preferred structure doesn’t work - let’s just try something different, 2 rucks another 10 games into Sweet so we know a bit more about him either way. JUH plays every week, along side two other tall forwards (Naughty, Schache/Bruce) Bedendo should get the other wing spot until Hunter comes back, give Arty a taste.

Could not disagree more. Playing in September is playing in September. There is hope for at least one game and potentially a day out. Finals experience for some players for the following year. No-one will be blind to cracks if we go out first week. We're still a chance to win the flag this year but others are a better chance. We can make finals so relevant.

No need to respond. We're miles apart.