Science/Environment Wuhan Coronavirus (COVID-19) - Pandemic Declared

[Ron The Bear]

We need a tv ad campaign that gives us basic facts and tells us what we need to do and why. It can help contain the virus and lessen panic. Do it.

Much harder these days, we have to make sure nobody takes offence.

 

[Dry Rot]

Italian first division football matches cancelled

All matches in Italy’s topflight Serie A division should be cancelled until further notice, the Italian Minister of Sport has said minutes before Serie A games were due to resume in empty stadiums.

Vincenzo Spadafora said that it made no sense to put at risk the health of players, officials, fans and others.
The news filtered through as players from Parma and Spal were already on the pitch in their clash in Parma today. They were invited to return dressing room and the game has been delayed.

Man in 60s becomes third to die from Covid-19 in UK – as it happened

Italy seals off northern region; US authorities say man in his 50s had no obvious contact with infection. This blog is closed.

www.theguardian.com

 

[Shane Heard]

View attachment 835962

In times like this, they should kill every single duck and chicken in the country tomorrow.

 

[AM]

Barrister Natalie Hickey on the implications of the Commonwealth Biosecurity Act.

Coronavirus: What can Big Brother make me do?

This post answers some questions about how the Commonwealth Biosecurity Act 2015 works. The word quarantine has Venetian policy as its source. Given Italy’s role at the centre of Europe’s coronavi…

sociallitigator.com

 

[Dry Rot]

Barrister Natalie Hickey on the implications of the Commonwealth Biosecurity Act.

Coronavirus: What can Big Brother make me do?

This post answers some questions about how the Commonwealth Biosecurity Act 2015 works. The word quarantine has Venetian policy as its source. Given Italy’s role at the centre of Europe’s coronavi…

sociallitigator.com

Christian Porter likes this

 

[hoianbulldog]

In times like this, they should kill every single duck and chicken in the country tomorrow.

Maybe, but duck and chicken are staples here.

We had to kill coupla hundred thousand, maybe millions of pigs 6 months ago because of swine flu. Pork is a staple so we imported to compensate.

Pork belly prices doubled...... Oh the humanity

 

[Dry Rot]

A dumb question:

Say you suspect you have this - what is the mechanism to get tested?

 

[SaltPeter]

A dumb question:

Say you suspect you have this - what is the mechanism to get tested?

Call your GP or your local hospital. The government also has an unpublicised number where you talk to an RN for advice

The government number is published on a 1 of their health sites

 

[Evolved1]

I know someone that lives in Thailand who took a friend to hospital who was showing general symptoms. Apparently they were turned away because he hadn't been to a high risk country recently (China, Italy, Iran).

 

[Shane Heard]

Maybe, but duck and chicken are staples here.

We had to kill coupla hundred thousand, maybe millions of pigs 6 months ago because of swine flu. Pork is a staple so we imported to compensate.

Pork belly prices doubled...... Oh the humanity

I understand they’re staples and know about the pig problem too.

But these are desperate times and humans come first.

im sure they survive on veges and rice and fish while the stocks get replenished over time with clean breeding

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

I know someone that lives in Thailand who took a friend to hospital who was showing general symptoms. Apparently they were turned away because he hadn't been to a high risk country recently (China, Italy, Iran).

I'd be surprised if most of SE Asia wasn't re-designated as do not travel for the virus in the coming weeks.

 

[Shane Heard]

A dumb question:

Say you suspect you have this - what is the mechanism to get tested?

it’s not dumb at all.

And it highlights our government’s failure atm to clearly inform the public about the correct procedures if someone shows symptoms.

Should’ve been done at the start of last week.

 

[its free real estate]

For deaths outside China:

Actual

-

345

421

503

[TD valign="bottom"]Date[/TD][TD valign="bottom"]Forecast[/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"]

5/03/2020​

[/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"]

273​

[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]

6/03/2020​

[/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"]

330​

[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]

7/03/2020​

[/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"]

400​

[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]

8/03/2020​

[/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"]

480​

[/TD]

[TD valign="bottom"]

9/03/2020​

[/TD]
[TD valign="bottom"]

580​

[/TD]

Just realised the function I thought I was using was wrong. Here's the predictions I expected:

DATE	FORECAST	CASES
05/03/2020	-	273
06/03/2020	320	345
07/03/2020	380	421
08/03/2020	450	503
09/03/2020	540

The next week:

DATE	FORECAST
2020-03-09	540
2020-03-10	640
2020-03-11	760
2020-03-12	910
2020-03-13	1000
2020-03-14	1200
2020-03-15	1400

~1 million dead by ANZAC Day.

 

[maryjames]

'Our hospitals are on their knees' says Italian doctor

The Italian doctor, a leading cancer specialist who wishes to remain anonymous, described how Italian hospitals are 'crowded with sick people' and struggling to cope.

t.co

 

[Dry Rot]

Just realised the function I thought I was using was wrong. Here's the predictions I expected:

DATE	FORECAST	CASES
05/03/2020	-	273
06/03/2020	320	345
07/03/2020	380	421
08/03/2020	450	503
09/03/2020	540

The next week:

DATE	FORECAST
2020-03-09	540
2020-03-10	640
2020-03-11	760
2020-03-12	910
2020-03-13	1000
2020-03-14	1200
2020-03-15	1400

~1 million dead by ANZAC Day.

Impresssive so far.

What is the methodology of your forecasting?

 

[Dry Rot]

'Our hospitals are on their knees' says Italian doctor

The Italian doctor, a leading cancer specialist who wishes to remain anonymous, described how Italian hospitals are 'crowded with sick people' and struggling to cope.

t.co

That link and info should be stickied for all the sceptics.

Advanced western country. Reasonable to good health system.

Overwhelmed. As always the govt here is bullshitting us.

This could get really, really ugly.

 

[its free real estate]

Impulsive so far.

What is the methodology of your forecasting?

Basically 20% increase per day, with a rounding down to the nearest 2 significant figures (eg if the number was 3456 it should round to 3400). The problem was a I used a function that rounded to the nearest number, not the smallest number, meaning 3456 would round to 3500.

What can curtail the rate of increase? Wuhan style shutdowns it seems. Don't think too many countries can manage it.

 

[Dry Rot]

Basically 20% increase per day, with a rounding down to the nearest 2 significant figures (eg if the number was 3456 it should round to 3400). The problem was a I used a function that rounded to the nearest number, not the smallest number, meaning 3456 would round to 3500. Code here:

import pandas as pd
from datetime import date, timedelta

df = pd.DataFrame({"DATE": [], "CASES" :
[], "FORECAST" : []})
cases = 273
i = 0
start_date = date.fromisoformat('2020-03-05')
while cases < 1e6:

    row = pd.Series()
    if i == 0:
        row["DATE"] = start_date
        row["CASES"] = cases
        row["FORECAST"] = None
    else:
        cases = cases * 1.2

        rnd = -(floor(log10(cases))-1)
        cases = int(cases * (10**rnd)) / (10**rnd)
        row["FORECAST"] = cases

        row["DATE"] = df.iloc[i-1]["DATE"] + timedelta(days=1)

    df = df.append(row, ignore_index=True)
    i = i +1
      
df.to_excel('cases.xlsx')

While my mistake has been more accurate so far, I don't think it's sustainable. At some point there will be an inflection, but I don't know when. But even if I reduce the rate of increase to 10% per day we have a million dead by June.

What can curtail the rate of increase? Wuhan style shutdowns it seems. Don't think too many countries can manage it.

Thanks for that. Apologies for the typo in my post: not "impulsive" but "impressive"

Keep up the good work.

It's interesting to consider the countries that will say exceed your estimates (Italy & Iran) and those will not, and why.

And yes, Wuhan measures seem to be the go:

 

[hoianbulldog]

I understand they’re staples and know about the pig problem too.

But these are desperate times and humans come first.

im sure they survive on veges and rice and fish while the stocks get replenished over time with clean breeding

I agree, take those as I called them staples away from the general population and they will manage fine. Today for example is one of the no meat days of the lunar month. The bang out kick ass veggie curries and everyone is happy.

 

[Over The Post]

Six minutes old - get it while its hot:

 

[Thrawn]

That link and info should be stickied for all the sceptics.

Advanced western country. Reasonable to good health system.

Overwhelmed. As always the govt here is bullshitting us.

This could get really, really ugly.

But but but... it's the DailyMail!

 

[its free real estate]

It's interesting to consider the countries that will say exceed your estimates (Italy & Iran) and those will not, and why.

France, Spain, Germany and UK seem about 7-10 days behind Italy, I think these will exceed the estimates.

 

[Dry Rot]

Six minutes old - get it while its hot:

I want Dr John's fountain pen if he cops it with the virus.

 

[mouncey2franklin]

Six minutes old - get it while its hot:

Aren't there laws about calling yourself a doctor when you are not in fact a doctor?

 

[Dry Rot]

Aren't there laws about calling yourself a doctor when you are not in fact a doctor?

Ask someone you know with a PhD, but you probably don't not know anyone like that.

Maybe ask someone of your own intellect, at the Coles checkout.