Prediction Your rd 1 team in 2019

[Murray2503]

R1 team looking like this to me...

B: Brown Talia Doedee
HB: Laird Keath Smith
C: Milera B Crouch Seedsman
HF: Atkins Walker Lynch
F: Betts Jenkins Gallucci
R: Jacobs M Crouch Sloane
Int: Greenwood, Douglas, Gibbs, Murphy

Emg (from): O’Brien, McHenry, Knight, Hartigan, CEY, Kelly, Jones

Notes:
*I wouldn’t pick Kelly, I just think the selectors will go this way as it’s the “safe” option. EDIT: I completely forgot about Murphy, so Jake gets the chop for him as the 22nd player selected.

*Knight’s ankle / foot problem from yesterday is surely likely to cost him his spot against GWS, which in turn likely pushes him out of the Rd 1 side.

*McAdam will not be considered until around Rd 5 due to fitness issues IMO.

*McHenry is very close and could easily break in ahead of Kelly or even Gallucci if the selectors are swayed by his tackling prowess in JLT2.

*Jones also isn’t far off.

*Can’t see Stengle getting a gig any time soon.

*I’m assuming Greenwood proves his fitness. If not, McHenry, Knight or Ellis-Yolmen are his most likely replacements.

*Poholke is a long way down the pecking order and we may have even seen the last of him at AFL level tbh.

*Keath absolutely gets first crack at the 2nd KPD spot. Hartigan is waiting in the wings, which is very healthy competition. I’m assuming Talia will be right to go.

*Douglas absolutely plays. High B&F finish, enters leadership group = not done with yet.

*Jacobs is under intense pressure from ROB and probably only gets 3 games to nail down his spot. If Sauce is still struggling by then, ROB can and should step in. Has a lot more pace and intensity and brings something different.

*Fogarty is stuck in no-man’s land. Sadly he needs an injury to take place to even be in the frame.

In regards to Kelly I don't see a spot for him if all of Brown, Laird, Seedsman, Milera and Smith play. Our 3 talls are Talia, Keath, Doedee. Kelly is backup and may not even be backup by the end of year if Hamill and McPherson come on. I think Kelly wanted to get back to Victoria end of last year and will most likely find a taker end of this year. I believe we have also seen the last of Mackay.
In regards to Douglas I don't really see a spot for him especially if Greenwood is fit. Douglas is now in direct competition with Jones who has a lot more pace. I feel leadership group will have little to do with selection if form or age doesn't warrant selection. In my opinion Douglas has been on slow decline for sometime and he isn't turning back the clock. Unless injuries this year I see him only playing a handful of games and will retire end of the year imo. I would be getting as many games into Jones as possible. You don't play a top 10 pick in the 2nd's. In regards to Jacob's. If your only giving him 3 games you already have your answer as to what needs to happen. Yesterday sealed Jacob's fate imo. He got towelled up by Ryder and Lycett. Gawn and Grundy will destroy him. He just looks tired and slow and cannot jump. There will be no flag if he is our first ruck.
Fogarty is interesting. Your right there isn't really a place for Fog unless he plays the Lynch role or if Tex was injured. He might be picked as a backup if Talia or Keath go down. More than likely he will be a backup for injuries and will play around 10 games.
In regards to Murphy I don't see a spot for him if knight and Gallucci are fit. Next in line are Mcadam, McHenry and Davis. We lack contested marking so I see a very big future for Mcadam and possibly Davis once fit enough. Mchenry may be likely successor to Betts once he hangs them up. End of the day there is always injuries but I hope we go with youth instead of aging players such as Mackay, Douglas, Jacob's, Otten etc. 1997 contained many first year players.

 

[huludicidal]

I posted the team I believe will be selected above. Here’s what I would roll with if it was up to me :

B: Brown - Talia - Doedee
HB: Laird - Keath - Smith
C: Milera - B Crouch - Seedsman
HF: Atkins - Walker - Lynch
F: Betts - Jenkins - MCHENRY
R: O’BRIEN - M Crouch - Sloane
Int: Greenwood, Gibbs, Douglas, JONES

Emg: Jacobs, Gallucci, Murphy, Hartigan

In: O’Brien, McHenry, Jones
Out: Jacobs, Gallucci, Murphy

I’d keep Douglas in because his experience will be important against the Hawks in an away game at a venue we’ve struggled at for a long time now (EDIT: clearly the game is at Adelaide Oval and I’m an idiot - I’d still keep Dougie in because I think he’s earned the right to have first crack). He needs to be told he’s under the pump and that Knight, McAdam, Gallucci and Murphy are all champing at the bit to take his spot. You have to remember, Dougie looked great right up until he copped that injury last year - was genuinely in our best 6 players right up until that point, was regularly hitting the scoreboard with high accuracy, and even absolutely annihilated Josh Kennedy (kept him to 14 touches or something ridiculous) in the upset win against the Swans early on. Not sure the injury was managed too well (surprise, surprise) and his second half of the season was then shithouse (he had mates). I think a lot of people forget these things and just want to write him off because of his age.

I’m going with the two debutants in Jones and McHenry, not because I like shiny new things, but because I like what each of them have to offer the side in this particular fixture. Stamina is extremely important in the early rounds of the season - every year we see these round 1 games turn into an absolute gong show in the 4th quarter as cramp and fatigue set in. These guys are young, but they can both run all day. McHenry’s defensive stuff combined with Jones’ all around class will be telling late in the game IMO. I’m hopeful McHenry can play a standout game in JLT2 to turn this into reality. Jones only played 35% game time in JLT1, so hopefully this can be ramped up to 65% or so in JLT2 to get him amongst it too. Realistically, we almost definitely won’t see both of Jones and McHenry run out there in Rd 1 (our conservative selection policies wouldn’t allow it), but I’d like to think one of them could squeeze in.

Gallucci gets pushed out of my side due to the above guys being preferred. Ditto Murphy. I don’t hate either of these two, I just think Jones offers significantly more than Gallucci, and McHenry is a better version of Murphy.

I wouldn’t be risking Knight in JLT2 after yesterday’s incident. He’s proven in the past that he needs more time than most to recover from injuries. This pushes him out of Rd 1 for mine. Still like him moving forward, and I’m hopeful he can play around 12-15 games this year.

I’m putting Jacobs out to pasture. Maybe he regains some confidence in the SANFL and comes back into calculations, but until I see him dominate a few games down there, I wouldn’t be selecting him at AFL level. Too immobile and is consistently a liability in key moments these days.

Other than those mentioned already, my most contentious selection is Greenwood, because of the injury concerns. I just think he’s the sort of guy who we’re willing to send out there with the intention of only playing him for around 50-65% game time in Rd 1. He can spend some time at stoppages, where he is ELITE, and can spend the remainder up forward, where he’s a really tough matchup for opposition defenses. We’ll know more about how realistic this is after Friday night. If he can’t play much or any of that game, he’s obviously not going to be risked.

Talia and Brown should be fine from all reports. Hartigan and Kelly (*shudder) the obvious replacements if they’re not.

 

[Tex Danger]

I posted the team I believe will be selected above. Here’s what I would roll with if it was up to me :

I’d keep Douglas in because his experience will be important against the Hawks in an away game at a venue we’ve struggled at for a long time now.

Adelaide Oval?

 

[huludicidal]

Adelaide Oval?

Lol, my bad. Had it in my head that Rd 1 was at the G. Carry on!

 

[Mego Red]

Greenwood will need a run in 5 days time if he's to play round one, and that seems unlikely.

Jacobs and Douglas are certainly playing.

Murphy seems like he's leading the race, but yesterday pointed out as many issues for him as it did recognise his strengths. McHenry for mine.

 

[Ian Dunross]

How's McAdam tracking?

 

[Tex Danger]

How's McAdam tracking?

Would seem his Fitness is a bit behind but if that’s in terms of behind enough to prevent afl games or just an area for growth is unclear.

He was hospitalized with gastro and suggested in s player interview they had only just started to see him regularly on the track and what he can do due to some niggles he was managing earlier on (unclear if that was the gastro or I interpreted it as having to be managed due to issues with coming to terms with an afl preseason early on)

I pin him as an option from approx rd 6 as he builds match form/condition/pressure on spots and hope he can be a back end of season best 22 regular.

Not playing yesterday suggests he isn’t quite in rd1 frame but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play next week and missing out this week been a management thing in which case would change perception in his place in the squad.

 

[GROTTO]

Would seem his Fitness is a bit behind but if that’s in terms of behind enough to prevent afl games or just an area for growth is unclear.

He was hospitalized with gastro and suggested in s player interview they had only just started to see him regularly on the track and what he can do due to some niggles he was managing earlier on (unclear if that was the gastro or I interpreted it as having to be managed due to issues with coming to terms with an afl preseason early on)

I pin him as an option from approx rd 6 as he builds match form/condition/pressure on spots and hope he can be a back end of season best 22 regular.

Not playing yesterday suggests he isn’t quite in rd1 frame but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him play next week and missing out this week been a management thing in which case would change perception in his place in the squad.

Could be an interesting weapon to have towards the end of the year and in September.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I'm assuming Talia & Greenwood will be too underdone for round 1... though we have a habit of risking players when we have suitable replacements. Allows a Hartigan v Keath shootout. If Brown doesn't come up, then Kelly slots in

B: Brown, Hartigan, Doedee
HB: Smith, Keath, Laird
C: Seedsman, Mrouch, Atkins
HF: Lynch, Walker, Knight
F: Betts, Jenkins, Douglas
R: Jacobs, Brouch, Sloane
I: Milera, Gibbs, Gallucci, Fogarty

 

[Bicks]

I'm assuming Talia & Greenwood will be too underdone for round 1... though we have a habit of risking players when we have suitable replacements. Allows a Hartigan v Keath shootout. If Brown doesn't come up, then Kelly slots in

B: Brown, Hartigan, Doedee
HB: Smith, Keath, Laird
C: Seedsman, Mrouch, Atkins
HF: Lynch, Walker, Knight
F: Betts, Jenkins, Douglas
R: Jacobs, Brouch, Sloane
I: Milera, Gibbs, Gallucci, Fogarty

I'll be more than mildly surprised if Talia doesn't suit up Round 1, it's just not the nature of the beast that is Daniel Talia.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I'll be more than mildly surprised if Talia doesn't suit up Round 1, it's just not the nature of the beast that is Daniel Talia.

Yes, it wouldn't surprise me either, but why risk an underdone player with a long season ahead.

 

[Bicks]

Yes, it wouldn't surprise me either, but why risk an underdone player with a long season ahead.

He's likely fitter right now than any time throughout the season last year because he hardly trained during the week last season carrying multiple niggles into matches but still got the job done mostly. Body wise he's be in better nick right now and certainly fresher. My money says he plays.

 

[Bicks]

Yes, it wouldn't surprise me either, but why risk an underdone player with a long season ahead.

I rest my case...

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

I think the following changes will be made from the JLT side compared to the R1 side:

In: Talia, Gibbs, Greenwood
Out: O'Brien, Jones, Poholke, Otten, Ellis-Yolmen, Keath/Hartigan, Knight/Murphy (Last 2 line-ball, depending on performance in second JLT game)

Missing through injury: Brown

If Greenwood isn't fit, then both Knight and Murphy play. If Talia isn't fit, then both Keath and Hartigan play. If Brown is fit then Kelly drops out.

Changes compared to R23, 2018:
In: Walker, Sloane, Brouch, Smith, Talia, Hartigan, Doedee, Fogarty
Out: McGovern, Gallucci, Ellis-Yolmen, Mackay, Keath, Otten, Brown, Himmelberg

When you look at the like for like comparison from R23 last year, that is several massive upgrades.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Just looked at the probable Hawks team for R1. Their midfield looks a lot shallower without Titchell. Starting 3 mids are basically Shiels, O'Meara and Worpel with Burgoyne their 4th mid.

In comparison we're likely to be something like Sloane, Gibbs, Mrouch with Brouch our 4th mid.

Based on previous performances, you'd have to think the Crows have a significant advantage there.

 

[Golumless]

My guess right now:

Brown - Talia - Doedee
Smith - Keath - Laird
Atkins - Brouch - Seedsman
Gibbs - Tex - Lynch
Betts - Jenkins - McHenry
Jacobs - Sloane - Mrouch
Greenwood/CEY -Gallucci - Milera - Otten

Now the super surprising one - I'm opting for Otten as a swing-man. Primarily we'll need a adequate KPD who can just pinch hit forward when required (though I'd opt for Greenwood for this more) which suits Otten much more then Fogarty, both in a skills and a development sense. I also absolutely loathe the idea of trying to develop a kid in a swing man role, as a fair bit of development is just from learning how to play to a structure, something which is hindered rather massively if you are forced to learn two separate roles at the same time.

 

[crows dude]

Wow if Talia is now ready for this week our Injury list is



Should be 28 February.

So this week Talia, Mackay, Gibbs and Greenwood all in leaving Brown, Himmelberg and McPherson

Fridays AFL

F Murphy Jenkins Betts
HF Knight Walker Lynch
C Seedsman B Crouch Gibbs
HB Milera Talia Smith
B Laird Keath Doedee
Ruck Jacobs M Crouch Sloane



Inter - Jones, Atkins, Macadam, McHenry, Douglas, o'Brien, Eliis Yolman



Fridays SANFL

F Stengle Strachan Davis
HF Gallucci Fogarty Wright (c)
C top up Greenwood Mackay
HB Kelly Otten Hamil
B Sholl Butts top up

Ruck
Hunter
Wilson
Poholke


Inter - top up, top up, top up

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

I rest my case...

As I suggested in my original post, I expect AFC to pick Talia for round 1 as that's how they roll. I'm just saying that I would not risk him if he is underdone as it's a long season ahead & he is a key to our success.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Wow if Talia is now ready for this week our Injury list is

View attachment 629083

Should be 28 February.

So this week Talia, Mackay, Gibbs and Greenwood all in leaving Brown, Himmelberg and McPherson

Fridays AFL

F Murphy Jenkins Betts
HF Knight Walker Lynch
C Seedsman B Crouch Gibbs
HB Milera Talia Smith
B Laird Keath Doedee
Ruck Jacobs M Crouch Sloane



Inter - Jones, Atkins, Macadam, McHenry, Douglas, o'Brien, Eliis Yolman



Fridays SANFL

F Stengle Strachan Davis
HF Gallucci Fogarty Wright (c)
C top up Greenwood Mackay
HB Kelly Otten Hamil
B Sholl Butts top up

Ruck
Hunter
Wilson
Poholke


Inter - top up, top up, top up

With Brown out, imo Kelly is a Monty to replace him in defence.

 

[Jack is Back]

After two trial matches, IMHO nothing much has changed.

At this stage we will only be missing 1 or 2 definite best 22 players. It looks like Luke Brown will not be ready but latest information indicates that THE MIGHTY THOR will play on Friday plus Gibbs and Talia should be good to go for round one. IMHO there are at least 17 names in in permanent marker on the white board (plus 4 very likely to play in Round one if fit).

#1 Talia Doedee

Laird #2 Smith

Seedsman Sloane Atkins

#3 Walker Lynch

Betts Jenkins #4


#5
M Crouch
B Crouch

Milera, Gibbs, Greenwood, #6

#1 - The replacement for Brown, we are a bit light on for lockdown medium/small defenders. Whilst this would usually be a classic Bran Nue Mackae (Bradbury), it looks like Kelly is next in line.
#2 - Keath, Hartigan or Otten. My preference is Keath but alll three are a chance.
#3 - Defensive forward/mid. My guess is Knight but we could slot in Douglas, Gallucci, Murphy, McHenry or Jones.
#4 - Deep forward, this is the toughest call. Will we stick with a tall marking option = The FOG or an additional small pressure forward = Douglas, Gallucci, Murphy, McHenry, Jones, Stengle or McAdam.
#5 - Jacobs, ROB or both ????? My heart says ROB, my head says Sauce
#6 - Another forward/mid, refer to #3.

My guess for the last six spots are Kelly, Keath, Knight, Gallucci, Jacobs and Douglas.

 

[1970crow]

B: Brown, Talia, Doedee
HB: Smith, Keath, Laird
C: Seedsman, Sloane, Milera
HF: Lynch, Walker, Gibbs
F: Betts, Jenkins, McAdam
Ruck: Jacobs, M Crouch, B Crouch

Interchange: Atkins, Douglas, Fogarty, Gallucci

No Knight or Greenwood for me.

I reckon Knight will play, probably at 5he expense of Fog. I will be surprised if McAdam has the fitness required yet, so I’m expecting one of our first rounders or Murphy. And reckon Harto will get first crack over Keath, but he’d want to perform because I doubt there’s much between them.

 

[1970crow]

any folks not heading to round 1 and comfortable donating a member barcode?

7 of us are coming over from Melbourne - I got 4 tickets with my barcode, just wanted to secure the other three without risking the game selling out when general public release happens

Or would you guys think I'd be safe waiting til then for the other three?

You can use mine. PM me if you’re still needing them, I’ve got 2 AO memberships.

 

[1970crow]

R1 team looking like this to me...

B: Brown Talia Doedee
HB: Laird Keath Smith
C: Milera B Crouch Seedsman
HF: Atkins Walker Lynch
F: Betts Jenkins Gallucci
R: Jacobs M Crouch Sloane
Int: Greenwood, Douglas, Gibbs, Murphy

Emg (from): O’Brien, McHenry, Knight, Hartigan, CEY, Kelly, Jones

Notes:
*I wouldn’t pick Kelly, I just think the selectors will go this way as it’s the “safe” option. EDIT: I completely forgot about Murphy, so Jake gets the chop for him as the 22nd player selected.

*Knight’s ankle / foot problem from yesterday is surely likely to cost him his spot against GWS, which in turn likely pushes him out of the Rd 1 side.

*McAdam will not be considered until around Rd 5 due to fitness issues IMO.

*McHenry is very close and could easily break in ahead of Kelly or even Gallucci if the selectors are swayed by his tackling prowess in JLT2.

*Jones also isn’t far off.

*Can’t see Stengle getting a gig any time soon.

*I’m assuming Greenwood proves his fitness. If not, McHenry, Knight or Ellis-Yolmen are his most likely replacements.

*Poholke is a long way down the pecking order and we may have even seen the last of him at AFL level tbh.

*Keath absolutely gets first crack at the 2nd KPD spot. Hartigan is waiting in the wings, which is very healthy competition. I’m assuming Talia will be right to go.

*Douglas absolutely plays. High B&F finish, enters leadership group = not done with yet.

*Jacobs is under intense pressure from ROB and probably only gets 3 games to nail down his spot. If Sauce is still struggling by then, ROB can and should step in. Has a lot more pace and intensity and brings something different.

*Fogarty is stuck in no-man’s land. Sadly he needs an injury to take place to even be in the frame.

Sauce will get a lot more than 3 games to find form. At least a dozen, more likely many more than that.

 

[Elite Crow]

I reckon Knight will play, probably at 5he expense of Fog. I will be surprised if McAdam has the fitness required yet, so I’m expecting one of our first rounders or Murphy. And reckon Harto will get first crack over Keath, but he’d want to perform because I doubt there’s much between them.

Knight will play, Hart said his ankle was minor and might play this week.

Greenwood and Brown likely to play sanfl if they play

 

[Shaz2012]

If picking Douglas is the worst of our problems then we are bloody laughing. Personally, I wouldn't pick him, but I think Pyke will and that is all that matters. I think he picks Sauce over ROB and based on JLT1 I do too. I dont think he picks Mackay and I think its still unclear who he picks out of Hartigan and Keath.

All in all, I am not too fussed about the R1 team. Its just one game and it might take a couple of months to sort out who is our best 22 for 2019.