List Mgmt. Christmas comes early (Nov 28 - 19 sleeps) - Draftee discussion
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The last bit of your second paragraph is why we shouldn’t get suckered in. Maybe there’s a dearth of plug and play best 22 ruckman, but there’s plenty of hacks like CCJ that teams blow good picks on because they get caught up in this idea that you have to pay more for one. We could get a similarly aged state league ruckman in the rookie or mid season draft surely. Meek will be in his 6th year and is still just ‘competent’. Happy to get him but there’s still likely to be some decent draft sliders at 38
Let’s not forget we got Judd as a PP despite being in the top 8 for most of the previous year, and Shuey as a PP despite being close to a prelim the previous year.
Miguel Sanchez
(Unique injury) TBC
This idea that we can just go pluck a ruckman out of a state league isn’t based on real events.
We signed up the top WAFL ruckman as an SSP this year and it didn’t exactly work out. He played two games then walked out on the club in July when he fell behind Jamieson in the pecking order.
And a few years ago we signed up the top SANFL ruckman as an SSP, he played zero games, got delisted, went to Hawthorn and played one game in two years.
The players who are actual “plug and play prospects” are pretty much already on a list somewhere.
There is a heap of speculation with possibly trading of draft picks but here is what I see as certain:-
1. Norf and West Coast have both stated publicly that picks 1 and 2 are for sale if the right offer comes. I do not expect the same craziness of offer that the Crows did in 2021 for Norf's No 1.
2. Lions R1 pick is for sale (15 to 18). Likewise, if they get an end of R1 compensation pick for McStay, it will be sold off. They are needing points for Ashcroft (a clear No. 1) and Fletcher (ranked end of R1 early R2). their second R2 pick will be mid to late 30's so little premium.
3. Essendon will be looking to sell of their R2 pick (currently 22) as Davey is a F/S who is being tipped to go late R1.
4. GWS will want high compensation in picks from Richmond for Taranto and Hopper. Richmond currently hold picks 12, 19 and 30 plus all of 2023 picks. Will GWS continue to want to push up the draft board like in prior years? They currently hold picks 3, 21, 39, 57, 59 which is expected to grow significantly. Add to that Bruhn is tipped to go to Geelong who hold 18 and 36.
5. The northern clubs with academies do not need points but Suns will need heaps in 2023 for 2 top ten KPP.
6 Suns hold a plethora of picks - currently 7, 25, 31, 34, 43, 52, 67 and 70. They are hard up on list spots and probably just take the mandatory 3 picks at the draft. They will want to cash in the 8 picks to either move up the board, offload a salary dump with a pick and the pick comes back next year, buy a player (eg Long), and buy future picks.
General flavour is that there are no first round FA's stuffing up the first round with the exception of de Goey.
Norf will not get a R1 pick but may get an end of R1 priority pick.
There are a couple of FA's that might impact the end of R1 or R2 in McStay and Amon. Of these, only end of R1 will impact us.
In terms of what we hold and might get for Rioli, I am OK holding firm in 2022 and I am also OK in strengthening 2023. Port's R2 looks about right.
I see real evenness in the draft this year in top 10 with not many absolute stand outs and another strong level in the 10 to 20 mark.
There is also a decent depth in the 20 to 35 level and then I see a slightly earlier than usual drop off at 35. There are still good players I see post 35 but it gets pretty thin thereafter. It may be me and a bunch of other draft watchers who have not seen enough of players in the last 3 years.
Teams I would expect West Coast deal with on trading of picks (excluding Port which is a trade of player for pick) will be:
1. Lions - I like their R1 and possibly the end of R1 for McStay
2. Essendon - I would be OK sliding back to 4 if they want a specific target (eg - we lose slightly on points but I would do 2 and 38 for 4 and 22)
3. Suns - if they get the Crows pick 5 and want to move up for pick 2
4. GWS - if they want to move up and get pick 2 (for 24 and 6)
5. Hawks if they really want Sheezel and want to get ahead of GWS and Dons
6. Crows is they want 2 for Rankine and give up 5 and future R2
There may also be some requests for clubs wanting pointy end picks for trades - ie Freo for Jackson, Tigers for Hopper/Taranto, etc. I would look at options but again want to land in the sweet spots of the draft. They may only be sweet for us given our needs and differ for other clubs.
1. Norf and West Coast have both stated publicly that picks 1 and 2 are for sale if the right offer comes. I do not expect the same craziness of offer that the Crows did in 2021 for Norf's No 1.
2. Lions R1 pick is for sale (15 to 18). Likewise, if they get an end of R1 compensation pick for McStay, it will be sold off. They are needing points for Ashcroft (a clear No. 1) and Fletcher (ranked end of R1 early R2). their second R2 pick will be mid to late 30's so little premium.
3. Essendon will be looking to sell of their R2 pick (currently 22) as Davey is a F/S who is being tipped to go late R1.
4. GWS will want high compensation in picks from Richmond for Taranto and Hopper. Richmond currently hold picks 12, 19 and 30 plus all of 2023 picks. Will GWS continue to want to push up the draft board like in prior years? They currently hold picks 3, 21, 39, 57, 59 which is expected to grow significantly. Add to that Bruhn is tipped to go to Geelong who hold 18 and 36.
5. The northern clubs with academies do not need points but Suns will need heaps in 2023 for 2 top ten KPP.
6 Suns hold a plethora of picks - currently 7, 25, 31, 34, 43, 52, 67 and 70. They are hard up on list spots and probably just take the mandatory 3 picks at the draft. They will want to cash in the 8 picks to either move up the board, offload a salary dump with a pick and the pick comes back next year, buy a player (eg Long), and buy future picks.
General flavour is that there are no first round FA's stuffing up the first round with the exception of de Goey.
Norf will not get a R1 pick but may get an end of R1 priority pick.
There are a couple of FA's that might impact the end of R1 or R2 in McStay and Amon. Of these, only end of R1 will impact us.
In terms of what we hold and might get for Rioli, I am OK holding firm in 2022 and I am also OK in strengthening 2023. Port's R2 looks about right.
I see real evenness in the draft this year in top 10 with not many absolute stand outs and another strong level in the 10 to 20 mark.
There is also a decent depth in the 20 to 35 level and then I see a slightly earlier than usual drop off at 35. There are still good players I see post 35 but it gets pretty thin thereafter. It may be me and a bunch of other draft watchers who have not seen enough of players in the last 3 years.
Teams I would expect West Coast deal with on trading of picks (excluding Port which is a trade of player for pick) will be:
1. Lions - I like their R1 and possibly the end of R1 for McStay
2. Essendon - I would be OK sliding back to 4 if they want a specific target (eg - we lose slightly on points but I would do 2 and 38 for 4 and 22)
3. Suns - if they get the Crows pick 5 and want to move up for pick 2
4. GWS - if they want to move up and get pick 2 (for 24 and 6)
5. Hawks if they really want Sheezel and want to get ahead of GWS and Dons
6. Crows is they want 2 for Rankine and give up 5 and future R2
There may also be some requests for clubs wanting pointy end picks for trades - ie Freo for Jackson, Tigers for Hopper/Taranto, etc. I would look at options but again want to land in the sweet spots of the draft. They may only be sweet for us given our needs and differ for other clubs.
If we are backing in Jamo and Williams then lets do it properly.
Seems like the best of bad choices. You hope Naitanui plays all year and you have two unconfirmed backups who may still develop into handy players yet.
Dont burn picks or list spaces on average players as thats what we have already.
You're probably right.
The point is though: we are at the bottom of a very steep rebuild, Meek (presumably) wants out, and will be 30 by the time our midfield draftees start to hit their peak. Players taken around pick 38 in the last few years:
Chad Warner (39)
Kaidean Coleman (37)
Harrison Petty (37)
Charlie Ballard (42)
Justin Mcinerney (44)
Rhett Bazzo (37)
Sure, there are heaps of players taken around that mark who don't make it, but you wonder how a side like Sydney rebuilds so easily... well you add Errol Gulden (32) to the two mentioned above and that's three B22 mid/flank players for what probably seemed like fairly cheap picks at the time. Nail picks in this draft range and you move your rebuild along a lot faster.
Ruck trades are obviously a unique phenomenon and teams pay a premium for someone reliable, but I don't think we should be rush into doing so for someone that only managed 12 HO against supposedly overweight NN, despite spending 20% more of the game on-field.
Miguel Sanchez
(Unique injury) TBC
I think we need an upgrade on Williams as the backup, whether that’s Meek or someone else. I’d be hopeful that we could trade Williams out and his replacement in without too much of a loss of draft capital, but that depends whether clubs would have much interest in Williams.
But if we go into 2023 with NicNat, Williams, Jamieson and a draftee then so be it.
JD camping trip all over again
Thems end of season weighting of ability.
I still think he goes mid draft 30-40
I was in Melbourne last weekend and went to the Collingwood game. What has become so evident this year is that the successful teams play at pace. The speed of ball movement is at another level and there is also the complete team pressure that forces errors and turnovers.
So the draftees that will attract early bids will have the following attributes
1. Decent foot skills at pace
2. Make decisions at pace
3. Two way runners
4. Can find separation from stoppages
The old control ball and chipping around is not going to cut it. Supposedly Simmo says he knows and is in the process of changing. I do worry about the likes of Hurn, Sheed, Barrass, Duggan, Gaff etc playing at pace.
Kelly, Shuey, Yeo and Jones - have shown the ability. To that extent McGovern at times selectively does so. If we want to start building a list who can compete, we better find players that can cope with points 1 to 4. Hough and Chesser (more on belief than what I've seen) are a good start.
So the draftees that will attract early bids will have the following attributes
1. Decent foot skills at pace
2. Make decisions at pace
3. Two way runners
4. Can find separation from stoppages
The old control ball and chipping around is not going to cut it. Supposedly Simmo says he knows and is in the process of changing. I do worry about the likes of Hurn, Sheed, Barrass, Duggan, Gaff etc playing at pace.
Kelly, Shuey, Yeo and Jones - have shown the ability. To that extent McGovern at times selectively does so. If we want to start building a list who can compete, we better find players that can cope with points 1 to 4. Hough and Chesser (more on belief than what I've seen) are a good start.
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Mop
Not anymore
Well lads, I've been called into work on a quiet day so I've read all 26 pages of this thread. Having not followed the up and comers for around 12 or 13 years, I feel this thread has given me more than enough information for the next decade.
I think... we need to draft local. We need to go best available local. Stuff positional need, we need to find the best Sandgroper, one with political ambition who can champion our cause for our inevitable succession from the scourge that is east of the Nullabor.
Ideally the bigger the better.
Ergo, Busslinger at 2. Dude even has a cool name.
I will not take any further questions
This is as close to Chiffon as we have now.
Stuff Port and stuff Rioli.
Get the best available blue chip mid and go from there. Zero question
I think... we need to draft local. We need to go best available local. Stuff positional need, we need to find the best Sandgroper, one with political ambition who can champion our cause for our inevitable succession from the scourge that is east of the Nullabor.
Ideally the bigger the better.
Ergo, Busslinger at 2. Dude even has a cool name.
I will not take any further questions
This is as close to Chiffon as we have now.Stuff Port and stuff Rioli.
Get the best available blue chip mid and go from there. Zero question
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I honestly have no idea where to place him. Definitely goes, just not sure where.
I'd say 35 to rookie.
WCE1698
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Tsatas and Wardlaw tick those boxes out of the top prospects.
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This is a great opportunity to really screw freo on picks…
Freo first this year and next for #2 and make them throw something else in extra. They can have Jackson at the expense of picks, players, dollars and culture
Disclaimer: I don’t research or read - that’s why I come here. You guys fill in the blanks
Freo first this year and next for #2 and make them throw something else in extra. They can have Jackson at the expense of picks, players, dollars and culture
Disclaimer: I don’t research or read - that’s why I come here. You guys fill in the blanks
To the serious draft watchers, could Broadbent jump before this season? If so, maybe it’s easier to attribute the drop off in form to shin splints.
Who is Johnson?
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Errol Guilden is a classic example of why we should take Darcy Jones.
Height means diddly for that type of role. High football IQ, quick, class. Would have gone much higher if taller. everyone else missed out on a damn good footballer.
Sorry - Not the point you were making mate but a real bugbear of mine.
More the Sandilands type of ruck. Is good because of the accumulation of everything he does rather than any out of the box highlights. Gets around the ground pretty well too.
I've been trying to put a bit of a timeline together:
-Rucked the full AIS game on May 22 (played well)
-Played U18 Champs July 2 Vic Metro and rucked probably 75%
-Ended up omitted from the WA side for the last couple of Champs games yet played pretty well in the WAFL colts oon the same days.
It's not like WA had a heap of options with Mitch Edwards preferred in the ruck being still a year away from draft eligibility.
If you have shin splints and perhaps are reduced from training during the week then you would expect fitness to suffer and to drop away towards the end of the year. However largely has produced the same numbers throughout the year. (Has played fine but never really dominated the competition)
The biggest problem in my eyes is that he hasn't improved significantly since last year. Sure he has a few more disposals and hitouts but still relies on physical reach a bit too much rather than out-bodying his direct opponent.
Freo do that trade in a heart beat and don’t look back.
So he’s basically a younger version of Sean Darcy.
If you’re all so invested in another ruck, probable questions should be;
Is xxxx potentially better than Jamo and Williams? Does he project better long term.
How soon could he be playing AFL football?
Watched Meek on the weekend, he probably just shaded his opponent, Taps were even, Meek had a few more disposals, didn't see anything that screamed AFL player.
Admittedly only a sample of one game.
Carbine Chaos
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Worth looking at as people have been talking up Free as a ruckman too.
Hit outs not dissimilar but Meek killed him around the ground it seems.
Only 1 mark each but also 7 tackles which is impressive.
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