Bit of a long one (actually two posts), but thought I’d take a bit of a deeper look into our rebuild to see if, and when, we might have a list that can compete for a flag. The following is a list breakdown for each club for 2022.
I’ve used AFL Stats Insider player ratings to rank players (which is based on average game rank, coaches’ votes, stats and a few other things), but then applied a quality guide based on the AFL website (stats only, but it’s what we’ve got) so it’s a bit easier to follow. There are more players with exposed form than play each year, so I’ve added an additional category of “Poor”, which covers players with exposed form that sit out of the top 540 players (i.e. outside a theoretical top 30 players on an average list).
In 2022, Geelong and Sydney both had the equal highest number of elite players with 6. But Sydney was belted in the gf, likely because Geelong had more above average (7 v 6) and average players (10 v 7). Melbourne won the flag the prior year with only 4 elite players but good depth. So elite players alone won’t win the flag.
Unsurprisingly, quality is an age-based thing for footballers (2022 data below):
Players tend to peak between 24 and 30, when 4 to 5 players per cohort are consistently elite (although you may have up to 7 at around 27 years old). A player or two may be good enough to be elite in their 21st year and around 2 will be elite from 31 to 34. Talls take longer to develop and tend to top out at an average of 1 player per draft year from 23 years old. They do hold their form through to their mid 30’s.
Above average players follow a similar pattern but start a bit earlier and end a bit later (elite players on their way up and then down would be included in this). Talls are better represented at the above average level, with an average of 4 talls per cohort from 24 to 30 years old.
A lot of below average and poor players are held by clubs even up to 23 years old, as these players can improve to be average or better, but half of draftees are gone by their 30th year (you’d assume the worst of them). The rest go in the next 5 or so years, with hardly any players over 30 who aren’t at least average.
Based on these numbers, players ranked in the top 5 of their cohort are tracking to be elite, although late developers can rise above them and talls take a bit longer to emerge. Players in the top 22 of their cohort are tracking to be above average at their peak and players in the top 34 of their cohort are tracking to be average at their peak.
I’ve used AFL Stats Insider player ratings to rank players (which is based on average game rank, coaches’ votes, stats and a few other things), but then applied a quality guide based on the AFL website (stats only, but it’s what we’ve got) so it’s a bit easier to follow. There are more players with exposed form than play each year, so I’ve added an additional category of “Poor”, which covers players with exposed form that sit out of the top 540 players (i.e. outside a theoretical top 30 players on an average list).
In 2022, Geelong and Sydney both had the equal highest number of elite players with 6. But Sydney was belted in the gf, likely because Geelong had more above average (7 v 6) and average players (10 v 7). Melbourne won the flag the prior year with only 4 elite players but good depth. So elite players alone won’t win the flag.
Unsurprisingly, quality is an age-based thing for footballers (2022 data below):
Players tend to peak between 24 and 30, when 4 to 5 players per cohort are consistently elite (although you may have up to 7 at around 27 years old). A player or two may be good enough to be elite in their 21st year and around 2 will be elite from 31 to 34. Talls take longer to develop and tend to top out at an average of 1 player per draft year from 23 years old. They do hold their form through to their mid 30’s.
Above average players follow a similar pattern but start a bit earlier and end a bit later (elite players on their way up and then down would be included in this). Talls are better represented at the above average level, with an average of 4 talls per cohort from 24 to 30 years old.
A lot of below average and poor players are held by clubs even up to 23 years old, as these players can improve to be average or better, but half of draftees are gone by their 30th year (you’d assume the worst of them). The rest go in the next 5 or so years, with hardly any players over 30 who aren’t at least average.
Based on these numbers, players ranked in the top 5 of their cohort are tracking to be elite, although late developers can rise above them and talls take a bit longer to emerge. Players in the top 22 of their cohort are tracking to be above average at their peak and players in the top 34 of their cohort are tracking to be average at their peak.
