Preview Round 1: Hawthorne vs Essendon, Melbourne Cricket Ground, Sunday 19th March @ 3.20pm

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citizen-erased said:
its pretty grim

I have us comfortably in the worst 3 clubs of the comp this century, along with GCS and Carlton.

There is a slight edge that we have managed to make a prelim (2001), however that was more a hangover of last century.
We have less worse finals appearance droughts however we do have the league record for not winning a final.

Our biggest issue is we never seem to swallow our pride and bottom out properly.
Lose to the Hawks and i hope we go full tank.
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We made the Grand Final. Brisbane got on the IV's and we fell behind.
 
BomberManU said:
One of these sides will win very easily, setting up a positive/feel good start to 2023. Problem is, I have no idea which team it will be.
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We are actually $1.57 with the bookies to Hawkes at $2.42. We are the same odds of winning as the Swans are against Suns (at GC). Either we don't really know just how bad Hawthorne is or the bookies dont understand the power of Essington. But you are right, either side could win this by 10 goals.
 

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So, where are we at then? Given our list, new coach, history of mediocrity and last years Rd. 1 disaster, should we be winning this, in theory/on paper? I think Scott will get a bit of leeway from the media, but what about the fans? Personally I think we should be winning this, but I have a feeling we won't. Good sides recover from a Rd.1 loss, we're not a good side, need a good showing first up.
 
I'd like to say I'm confident but I'm taking the approach to the season where if I set the bar very low then if we exceed my expectations we're not going so bad. I therefore am anticipating we just scrape over the line or we get behind, drop our bundle, and lose by 4+ goals.

On paper we should win this game reasonably comfortably. How the game pans out in reality will tell us plenty about where we're at.
 
BomberManU said:
So, where are we at then? Given our list, new coach, history of mediocrity and last years Rd. 1 disaster, should we be winning this, in theory/on paper? I think Scott will get a bit of leeway from the media, but what about the fans? Personally I think we should be winning this, but I have a feeling we won't. Good sides recover from a Rd.1 loss, we're not a good side, need a good showing first up.
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We tend to beat sides worse than us, and lose to sides better than us.

We've just not been any better than a mid-table side for a long time now.

People have had unrealistic expectations of where the club is at, so assume we've been failing to win games we should have won.
 
Pweter said:
I'd like to say I'm confident but I'm taking the approach to the season where if I set the bar very low then if we exceed my expectations we're not going so bad. I therefore am anticipating we just scrape over the line or we get behind, drop our bundle, and lose by 4+ goals.

On paper we should win this game reasonably comfortably. How the game pans out in reality will tell us plenty about where we're at.
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It's first real game with a new coach. I don't think it will tell us much at all. We might have a bit of new coach bounce to us that will come crashing down in due course or we might be still getting things together so much that the Hawkes do us in. Sadly, if we don't have things tight enough to win at least 2 of the first 4, the season is going to get very ugly for us after that. Can't see how we get a win from rounds 5 to 10 (maybe a chance on Anzac Day).
 
maybe I’m a masochist but I still have hope for the season.

Essendon seemed to be lacking athleticism, intensity and intelligence vs the saints.

Fortunately you don’t need high level intelligence to win footy games. Intensity should lift in real games and with real selection pressure now existing across a few lines.

Setterfield and Weiderman looked good additions to the team at inside mid and backup ruck* both which were big needs.

A lack of athleticism /size looked a worry. As was the coach doing the Parish/Shiel/Merrett trio despite years of evidence it doesn’t work.

But some players getting healthy and playing some of the kids will help with that. Swapping out JKelly for NCox would be a big upgrade.

I also tend to think Draper ends up as more of a key forward and part time ruck, which would add some physicality to the forward line.
 
I know this is dumb because its our first game but it's genuinely the most important game for us all year. Confidence is everything for youngsters.

If we win convincingly, the young group will be full of confidence and we could have a respectable year.

If we lose, we'll probably end up bottom 4 and miserable.
 

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Petrify said:
I know this is dumb because its our first game but it's genuinely the most important game for us all year. Confidence is everything for youngsters.

If we win convincingly, the young group will be full of confidence and we could have a respectable year.

If we lose, we'll probably end up bottom 4 and miserable.
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I don't know if I'd go that far, but if we don't get dismantled by the eventual premiers in the first ten minutes of round 1 I think we'd be better off.
 
 
BomberManU said:
So, where are we at then? Given our list, new coach, history of mediocrity and last years Rd. 1 disaster, should we be winning this, in theory/on paper? I think Scott will get a bit of leeway from the media, but what about the fans? Personally I think we should be winning this, but I have a feeling we won't. Good sides recover from a Rd.1 loss, we're not a good side, need a good showing first up.
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Hawks will be up for this.
2-3 goal loss wouldn't surprise me any more than a 10 goal win.
 
www.afl.com.au

MOCK TEAMS: Who's in your club's best 22 for round one?

Recruits, draftees, bolters ... we pick the team that's running out for your club's season-opener
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au

ESSENDON

B: Jordan Ridley, Jayden Laverde, Jake Kelly
HB: Mason Redman, Brandon Zerk-Thatcher, Andrew McGrath
C: Sam Durham, Zach Merrett, Nic Martin
HF: Archie Perkins, Sam Weideman, Harrison Jones
F: Jye Menzie, Peter Wright, Matt Guelfi
Foll: Sam Draper, Darcy Parish, Dylan Shiel
I/C: Jye Caldwell, Massimo D'Ambrosio, Will Setterfield, Alwyn Davey jnr
EMERG: Kyle Langford, Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti, Andrew Phillips, Nick Hind

NEW: Alwyn Davey jnr, Will Setterfield, Sam Weideman
UNAVAILABLE: Nik Cox (back), Dyson Heppell (foot), Zach Reid (back), Jake Stringer (hamstring), Elijah Tsatas (knee)

NOTES: The Bombers have some tight selection calls ahead of round one despite a scratchy performance against St Kilda last week. Davey jnr's impressive performances will see him in a battle with McDonald-Tipungwuti for a spot, while Heppell and Stringer shape as more unlikely than likely for round one with their injuries. The Bombers' backline looks relatively settled but they will continue to work through their best forward mix – against the Hawks in round one it could be having tall trio Wright, Jones and Weideman in the same attack. Langford has had some interruptions in pre-season so could be placed as the Bombers substitute if the team fitted this way. - Callum Twomey

www.afl.com.au

MOCK TEAMS: Who's in your club's best 22 for round one?

Recruits, draftees, bolters ... we pick the team that's running out for your club's season-opener
www.afl.com.au www.afl.com.au
 
Hawks have lost a bit of experience but anything is possible. Round 1 last year was a massive reality check that killed our season in 5 minutes.

You would hope the players are switched on this year. Hopefully as the year goes on Scott doesn't hesitate to drop players not giving 100%. I can cop losses but not half hearted efforts.

Nervously awaiting this game. If manic effort is missing it will be a long year.
 
Petrify said:
I know this is dumb because its our first game but it's genuinely the most important game for us all year. Confidence is everything for youngsters.

If we win convincingly, the young group will be full of confidence and we could have a respectable year.

If we lose, we'll probably end up bottom 4 and miserable.
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I wouldn’t go that far. I think the first 4 games will show where we are at and how much of an impact the coaches have made over summer, and whether the players have actually turned a leaf on consistent effort.
 
Looks good in the back half. Don’t understand the forward line. Or playing Sheil, merret and parish at the same time.

The forward line is all talls and smalls but lacking grunt/physicality. Considering that’s hawthorns best trait I think this will be a pretty big test this week
 
For me:

FB: Jordan Ridley - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Jake Kelly
HB: Mason Redman - Jayden Laverde - Massimo D'Ambrosio
MF: Sam Durham - Will Setterfield - Nic Martin
HF: Archie Perkins - Sam Weideman - Will Snelling
FF: Jye Menzie - Peter Wright - Harrison Jones
OB: Samuel Draper - Dylan Shiel - Zachary Merrett
IC: Darcy Parish - Andrew McGrath - Alwyn Davey jr - Kyle Langford
MS: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
 
Last edited:
eth-dog said:
For me:

FB: Jordan Ridley - Brandon Zerk-Thatcher - Jake Kelly
HB: Mason Redman - Jayden Laverde - Massimo D'Ambrosio
MF: Sam Durham - Will Setterfield - Nic Martin
HF: Archie Perkins - Sam Weideman - Will Snelling
FF: Jye Menzie - Peter Wright - Harrison Jones
OB: Sam Draper - Dylan Shiel - Zach Merrett
IC: Darcy Parish - Andrew McGrath - Alwyn Davey jr - Kyle Langford
MS: Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti
Click to expand...
1678319758654.gif

it's no longer "MS", just "S"
 
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