List Mgmt. Trade & Draft Discussion 2023 post season - Picks Reid,30,40,49,66 (Bush league)

[Lore]

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Spoiler: 2023 Draft Order

Spoiler: 2024 Draft Order, aka Future Picks

Spoiler: Blue Tick Rumours

Keys you may like to sticky this post & move it to the start of the thread (so the sticky post doesn't rotate if a post is deleted before it), or copy it to your draft thread if you have one.

 

[Get_The_Gaff]

A high pick on a key forward? A high pick on a key defender maybe. Who would we look at this year forward-wise?

Not this year but top 25 for a key forward is the norm .

I don't want to spend a high pick on a key defender .

We have such a good record of picking up key defenders in the 30 or above range why would we bother .

Our 2 key defenders were barass pick 43 McGovern rookie

 

[Yeahnahmate]

Sliding Doors (11/10/23)


IF …

north are going to throw a dirty dishcloth at the eagles as an opening offer … to what will eventually be the kitchen sink …

THEN …

maybe west coast should bin it, leave them hanging all the way till the draft and then JUST TAKE REID.

 

[Kegs15]

4 Scenarios - listed in order of preferencec

1. The Bleeding Obvious - HOLD
So as it stands, we are hearing Cal, Juddy and even now Ralph saying Harley interviewed very well, has got his head around it and would love to join West Coast. Also hearing West Coast very keen and gives Sam McClure the bird

2. The Corleone - A Godfather Offer We Can't Refuse
Picks 2 and 3 and we go 2 of Curtin, McKercher, Duursma

3. The Corleone with a difference
As above but play some games.
Take McKercher with 2, sell 3 to Melbourne to get ahead of Hawks and Dogs and they take Duursma or Watson. We get back 6 and Melbourne's F1 for 3 and our F2.
Expect the balance of Watson or Duursma to go to Hawks at 4 and Dogs at 5 likely to go Sanders as they do not need height.
So fair expectation that Curtin is still be there at 6. If he is not, we take O'Sullivan.
Playing games might give us McKercher and Curtin and an upgrade in 2024 from about 23 to 15

4. The Dees King's Ransom
Dees have 6 and 11. They sell Petty to Crows for 10. We ask for 6, 10, 11, F1 for 1 plus our R3 at 44 and a F3
Take to the draft 6, 10, 11, 23 and 37
6 = a chance Curtin still there, if not O'Sullivan
10 and 11 = TWO of Murphy (might miss if we get O'Sullivan), Wilson, Tholstrup, Schoenmaker (if we miss out on Curtin)
We would not want the later pick this year and we upgrade 2024 from about 43 to 15

Loving Melbourne joining the auction. It just means that there is a greater likelihood of reaching our reserve price.

AsterixTheGaul (and others far far more knowledgeable than me):

How would you rate next year's crop of projected early draftees? The vibe I get for this current year is that it's more pointy-end heavy compared to last year being more balanced into the teens - so clubs offering us late first rounders wouldn't be worth as much to us this year.

Are F1s relatively enticing? And is there a range that might be a sweet spot eg the Ginbey/Hewitt picks last year or a particularly strong top 3 etc?

Am firmly in the #justtakereid camp but curious to know - obviously can change a lot in a year too given Moir's fall from grace

 

[Free Agent]

You keep pushing that Cheese go home factor but I’m less sold.

Even so, even if he did, there’s two other picks to mitigate. One of which in that scenario being the F1 which will likely be a top 4 pick.

Reid. McKercher. Anyone from interstate. There’s always some risk.

Disagree completely with this. It's reckless going the McKercher path.

Reid is a known now and if you have heard him in any of he's interview he's a long term prospect. If you believe he's a flight risk then you haven't done any research. He's not from Melbourne. He's from country Vic near Echuca and even he said it himself he would have to relocate for all 18 clubs. I say that again as it seems to get missed.
He will have to relocate for ALL 18 clubs. He's a flight risk for all 18 clubs.
He said he is happy to go anywhere.
It's a solid pick if I've ever seen one. Long term prospect and no flight risk.

McKercher on the other hand has a huge weight on his shoulders if he came to us. Once Tasmania comes into it he will likely be out of contract and offered a huge contract to leave.

Then you have North to consider. Who have a list of top quality talent over the last 5 years. They are going to rise up the ladder as much as most here don't want to recognise it. They destroyed Gold Coast in round 24 and are building quite a list of quality players. You can't throw our whole future on the basis of North not rising. It's way to much a gamble. Recipe for disaster.

1. Gamble in McKercher being flight risk for Tasmania
2. Gamble in a late pick around 15-20
3. Gamble in Norths Future pick which it's in hoping they don't climb the ladder.

Don't like it one bit. There is a hell of a lot more risk in this then there is in just picking the best rated talent who wants to come to us in Reid.

 

[Wooshaaaa]

4 Scenarios - listed in order of preferencec

1. The Bleeding Obvious - HOLD
So as it stands, we are hearing Cal, Juddy and even now Ralph saying Harley interviewed very well, has got his head around it and would love to join West Coast. Also hearing West Coast very keen and gives Sam McClure the bird

2. The Corleone - A Godfather Offer We Can't Refuse
Picks 2 and 3 and we go 2 of Curtin, McKercher, Duursma

3. The Corleone with a difference
As above but play some games.
Take McKercher with 2, sell 3 to Melbourne to get ahead of Hawks and Dogs and they take Duursma or Watson. We get back 6 and Melbourne's F1 for 3 and our F2.
Expect the balance of Watson or Duursma to go to Hawks at 4 and Dogs at 5 likely to go Sanders as they do not need height.
So fair expectation that Curtin is still be there at 6. If he is not, we take O'Sullivan.
Playing games might give us McKercher and Curtin and an upgrade in 2024 from about 23 to 15

4. The Dees King's Ransom
Dees have 6 and 11. They sell Petty to Crows for 10. We ask for 6, 10, 11, F1 for 1 plus our R3 at 44 and a F3
Take to the draft 6, 10, 11, 23 and 37
6 = a chance Curtin still there, if not O'Sullivan
10 and 11 = TWO of Murphy (might miss if we get O'Sullivan), Wilson, Tholstrup, Schoenmaker (if we miss out on Curtin)
We would not want the later pick this year and we upgrade 2024 from about 43 to 15

Loving Melbourne joining the auction. It just means that there is a greater likelihood of reaching our reserve price.

You missed the more likely scenario.

2 F1 and 15

I would take this.

2 mckercher or just take curtin and the melts.

15 Charlie Edwards.

Then next year we will have picks 1 (2)
Take the best kid and then split pick 2 into 5-10


Then pick one this year nets us across 2 drafts
2 5 10 15






On Pixel 6 Pro using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[MrWoollie]

I’m assuming you mean your future 1st

If so then that would be very close and something I think the club would strongly consider

I think it would have to be the genuine F1st.

As I see it now, all the charity end of R1's are gone. Sydney and GC have the 2024 ones.

 

[shoutsatclouds]

Disagree completely with this. It's reckless going the McKercher path.

Reid is a known now and if you have heard him in any of his interview his a long term prospect. If you believe his a flight risk then you haven't done any research. He's not from Melbourne. His from country Vic near Echuca and even he said it himself he would have to relocate for all 18 clubs. I say that again as it seems to get missed.

He will have to relocate for ALL 18 clubs. His a flight risk for all 18 clubs.
He said he is happy to go anywhere.
It's a solid pick if I've ever seen one. Long term prospect and no flight risk.

McKercher on the other hand as a huge weight on his shoulders if he came to us. Once Tasmania comes into it he will likely be out of contract and offered a huge contract to leave.


Then you have North to consider. Who have a list of top quality talent over the last 5 years. They are going to rise up the ladder as much as most here don't want to recognise it. They destroyed Gold Coast in round 24 and are building quite a list of quality players. You can't throw out whole future on the basis of North not rising. It's way to much a gamble. Recipe for disaster.

1. Gamble in McKercher being flight risk
2. Gamble in a late pick around 15-20
3. Gamble in Norths Future pick which it's hoping they don't climb the ladder.

Don't like it one bit.

FFS...you're doing it for the clicks now...is that you Kane?

 

[Carbine Chaos]

Let North know they're a chance of getting Reid, but that they have to keep trading up for more first rounders to sell.

Then on the last day of the trade period tell them there's no deal to be made.

It'd be like getting the missus revved up for two hours, then having her roll over and go to sleep.

 

[Free Agent]

FFS...you're doing it for the clicks now...is that you Kane?

I've gone back and fixed it for you. I can't get it stuck in my head sorry.

 

[dinnaz]

These things can only ever be judged on hindsight imo.

Dozens were ranging from annoyed to upset to 'fold the club' when we downgraded our pick 2 but they are all quiet now after seeing how Ginbey and Hewitt have turned out so far. They will be up in arms again if they fail to become good players.

I'n a vacuum id still rather Sheezy as a better talent tho!

 

[Get_The_Gaff]

Yeah that's what I meant

I think if we go for Geelongs pick 8
We may offer
Pick 2 & Pick 8 for Pick 1 straight up

Pick 8 is no use to us IMO . It will end up 10 and right in that zone where this draft drops off . Its why Geelong want to sell it . It is very even after sanders , caddy , Watson all the way to about 20 .

 

[twce13]

Ginbey 》 sheeezle

He's exactly what we needed imo.

 

[Jukes]

Don’t think we need to worry about McKercher if we get Pick 2, he’s simply just not an Eagles draft pick.

Duursma on the other hand…

 

[DanWCE]

It'd be like getting the missus revved up for two hours, then having her roll over and go to sleep.

Can you give me an analogy I can understand?

 

[blinkd]

Can someone please tell me especially those that are ok with splitting how McKercher at pick 2 is not a huge flight risk. It's easy to say pick 2 pick 15 and future whatever but at the end of the day it's that top pick. Pick 2 that will be the major factor before any other pick.

I want to know your reasons for McKercher and why especially knowing that Tasmania is just around the corner. How confident are you that you would split for McKercher.

To me it just seems ridiculous and way too much of a risk. AFL will throw everything at him for Tasmania. That is the one and major flaw. It's everything in the reason to be splitting and I can't get my head around it one bit. The more I think about it. It's a huge red flag the Tasmania factor

Surely you would select Curtin at 2 no?

On a sidenote, perhaps its recency bias but I can't remember such conjecture regarding a number 1 pick.

 

[Forward Press]

I'n a vacuum id still rather Sheezy as a better talent tho!

At the moment Sheezel is obviously better than either Ginbey or Hewitt. He is likely to remain that way for the rest of his career too.

But at the moment I'd prefer both of them instead of just Sheezel.

 

[Forward Press]

Surely you would select Curtin at 2 no?

On a sidenote, perhaps its recency bias but I can't remember such conjecture regarding a number 1 pick.

Just last year we had lots of discussion about whether Cadman should go number 1 and if GWS should trade it as they were rebuilding.

It's just due to the increasing prevalence of social media and the undisputed #1 being Victorian and the club holding #1 being from WA.

 

[Farang83150]

Guarantee that *en tuna-necked campaigner Garry Lyon is pushing the Dees to go all in for Reid. Just like him to try and pull the strings from behind the scenes but take zero responsibility from the fallout of bad decisions (Watts). Bet he's popped round Reid's place everyday to "check in", conveniently whilst his dad's at work.

DAD....Gary's hiding behind the back shed again, he still thinks we can't see him!

 

[Spange]

Keep holding the beggar club over the barrel. They NEED Reid more than you can imagine.

Attendance averages of around 20,000 per home game is diabolical for the league hence the handouts. Those are rookie numbers compared to us. Factor that in with lower ticket prices and the turnover from the gate would be millions in deficit compared to a club like the eagles.

As a player you are going to be regularly in front of 50000 adoring eagle fans, plus the fact the club, facilities and overall vibe is leagues ahead of the rabble club.

when it comes time make a decision. Just draft Harley Reid.

 

[Free Agent]

Surely you would select Curtin at 2 no?

On a sidenote, perhaps its recency bias but I can't remember such conjecture regarding a number 1 pick.

No Curtin is far from pick 2. That's actually even more a reason not to split if we are going there. We would be downgrading a player that's pick 6-5 and picking him at pick 2. Does that seem right to you.

McKercher is the 2nd best player in the draft by most experts and anyone with the knowledge of it.

 

[eaglesnutcase]

If we end up with Curtin this draft I’d like for him to have the number 4 jumper please.

Daniel Kerrtin


I’ll see myself out now

No! Please; allow us to throw you out!!!

 

[Spooky17]

Can you give me an analogy I can understand?

So, West Coast is currently holding pick one, Harley Reid, which is like holding a Charizard Base Set, First Edition Holographic Pokemon Card.

Norf are the nerdy friends from down the street, who are trying to trade you a grab bag of random Pokemon card booster packs, ie four shit end of first round draft picks, in exchange for said Charizard.

Moral of the story, just take Charizard… I mean Reid.

 

[eaglevision]

No Curtin is far from pick 2. That's actually even more a reason not to split if we are going there. We would be downgrading a player that's pick 6-5 and picking him at pick 2. Does that seem right to you.

McKercher is the 2nd best player in the draft by most experts and anyone with the knowledge of it.

I’m going to say McKercher is 3rd best after Reid and Walter but absolutely agree with what you’re saying. If we want Curtin, we get on the blower to GWS for pick 7 and say everything except pick 1, F1, Oscar and draftees from last 2 years is on the table, how can we make this work? It will deliver us Curtin or O’Sullivan with the pick they are actually valued at. I’m not splitting pick 1. Worst they can do is turn us down and I’m pretty sure Demons are taking Caddy at 6.

 

[TerryFilk]

Don’t think we need to worry about McKercher if we get Pick 2, he’s simply just not an Eagles draft pick.

Duursma on the other hand…

See I disagree I think McKercher is exactly the type of guy West Coast would love, I’m surprised there hasn’t been more noise around us and him.

 

[eaglesnutcase]

North being cheap campaigners.

Still dont get the emotional tirade against the offer. Simple no, and wait for a better offer.

If Kangaroos play hardball. And not offering 2 and 3, would this suffice 2, 8 18 and both next year's future firsts as the final hurrah?

What do you mean; hardball!!
You make it sound like we are desperate.I spit on 2&3!!