Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[The Talent Scout]

Thanks - I do personally rate performances against men; do we know whether Smillie has form in that regard?

No Merlin007, I'm pretty sure Josh has just played against his own age.

 

[giantroo]

 

[My Left Foote]

Potentially Twomey gets some intel from North?

Other than the Phillips stuff from back when Luff was recruiter when Twomey had McDonald/Hollands as the options for our pick, he has been reasonably bang on with the players we’re interested in.

Rawlings & Thursfield have been on gettable / trade radio once if not multiple times.

He was the first to run with our 5 year Zurhaar offer IIRC.

Just a hunch but we’ve mentioned big body mids in multiple pressers / radio moments and when we we looked guaranteed for pick 1, he had Smillie as clear number 1 based on his comments on Gettable, then once we go to 2 and looking closer to getting pick 3, Langford jumps up to 4 which would be our first pick after an Ashcroft bid.

Twomey certainly knows his stuff, he watches A LOT of junior footy every year but he also has a direct line to all recruiters / list managers, it's why his Phantom Drafts are pretty much spot on.

They won't tell him who they are picking but they'll say who they think the other clubs are picking. If 17 other clubs say they think Richmond are taking Smillie with pick 1 that's what he runs with. Father / Son and Academy bids can muck with this a bit but you can be reasonably certain that when his final Phantom Draft drops that will be who we're taking.

I wouldn't read too much into any talk of a big body mid and Langford jumping up to 4, these are just his Power Rankings not a Phantom Draft. It may well play out that way but at this stage I think it's a coincidence more than anything else.

 

[andana]

Our second round pick looking good in these drafts

 

[Colby Cheer Squad]

So based on Twomey and ESPN, Ben Whitlock will be available at our second round pick but Harry Whitlock will have been taken just prior.

 

[The Talent Scout]

Cal Twomey's Phantom Form Guide: Top draft prospects' July ranking

AFL.com.au's draft guru Cal Twomey delivers his first Phantom Form Guide ahead of the 2024 Telstra AFL Draft

www.afl.com.au

My initial reaction from this is we will be able to bank one of the top line mids with our first pick & take one of the KPFs with our second pick.

That's quite possible Psicosis, all depends where the recruiters have Jack Whitlock, Harry Armstrong, Kayle Gerreyn and Jonty Faull and the big question FOR US, do we take the chance that we can get the 2nd, 3rd ,4th best key forward with our second pick to go along with our top mid or do we go something like Harry's a forward with a lot of potential , he's our guy and pick dynamite small forward Joe Berry with his precision kicking skills.

With this new rule change that means Isaac is off the list so I guess the question now becomes how much do we rate Joe Berry? And are we prepared to split our top pick to get him with the best key forward in the draft? Will and Brady's thinking on this matter would be quite intriguing to say the least.

 

[hoffseason gains 01]

Twomey certainly knows his stuff, he watches A LOT of junior footy every year but he also has a direct line to all recruiters / list managers, it's why his Phantom Drafts are pretty much spot on.

They won't tell him who they are picking but they'll say who they think the other clubs are picking. If 17 other clubs say they think Richmond are taking Smillie with pick 1 that's what he runs with. Father / Son and Academy bids can muck with this a bit but you can be reasonably certain that when his final Phantom Draft drops that will be who we're taking.

I wouldn't read too much into any talk of a big body mid and Langford jumping up to 4, these are just his Power Rankings not a Phantom Draft. It may well play out that way but at this stage I think it's a coincidence more than anything else.

Yes definitely a reach by me

 

[My Left Foote]

Rank	Cal Twomey AFL July Rankings	Jasper Chellappah ESPN July Rankings
1	Levi Ashcroft	Sid Draper
2	Josh Smillie	Jagga Smith
3	Finn O'Sullivan	Leonardo Lombard
4	Harvey Langford	Finn O'Sullivan
5	Murphy Reid	Josh Smillie
6	Jagga Smith	Sam Lalor
7	Luke Trainor	Levi Ashcroft
8	Sam Lalor	Tobie Travaglia
9	Sid Draper	Luke Trainor
10	Bo Allan	Harvey Langford
11	Leonardo Lombard	Xavier Lindsay
12	Taj Hotton	Joe Berry
13	Tobie Travaglia	Taj Hotton
14	Harry Armstrong	Isaac Kako
15	Isaac Kako	Bo Allan
16	Xavier Lindsay	Murphy Reid
17	Joe Berry	Alex Dodson
18	Jack Whitlock	Jobe Shanahan
19	Cooper Hynes	Christian Moraes
20	Tom Gross	Harry Armstrong
21	Samuel Marshall	Ben Camporeale
22	Christian Moraes	Kayle Gerreyn
23	Alex Dodson	Jack Whitlock
24	Alix Tauru	Samuel Marshall
25	Harrison Oliver	Jonty Faull
26	Matt Whitlock	Tom Gross
27	Jobe Shanahan	Harry O'Farrell
28	Jonty Faull	Matt Whitlock
29	Thomas Sims	Cooper Hynes
30	Noah Mraz	Hamish Davis

 

[giantroo]

 

[My Left Foote]

Rank	Cal Twomey AFL July Rankings	Jasper Chellappah ESPN July Rankings
1	Levi Ashcroft	Sid Draper
2	Josh Smillie	Jagga Smith
3	Finn O'Sullivan	Leonardo Lombard
4	Harvey Langford	Finn O'Sullivan
5	Murphy Reid	Josh Smillie
6	Jagga Smith	Sam Lalor
7	Luke Trainor	Levi Ashcroft
8	Sam Lalor	Tobie Travaglia
9	Sid Draper	Luke Trainor
10	Bo Allan	Harvey Langford
11	Leonardo Lombard	Xavier Lindsay
12	Taj Hotton	Joe Berry
13	Tobie Travaglia	Taj Hotton
14	Harry Armstrong	Isaac Kako
15	Isaac Kako	Bo Allan
16	Xavier Lindsay	Murphy Reid
17	Joe Berry	Alex Dodson
18	Jack Whitlock	Jobe Shanahan
19	Cooper Hynes	Christian Moraes
20	Tom Gross	Harry Armstrong
21	Samuel Marshall	Ben Camporeale
22	Christian Moraes	Kayle Gerreyn
23	Alex Dodson	Jack Whitlock
24	Alix Tauru	Samuel Marshall
25	Harrison Oliver	Jonty Faull
26	Matt Whitlock	Tom Gross
27	Jobe Shanahan	Harry O'Farrell
28	Jonty Faull	Matt Whitlock
29	Thomas Sims	Cooper Hynes
30	Noah Mraz	Hamish Davis

A lot to play out but interesting to see some big discrepancies between Cal and Jasper;
Sid Draper 1 and 9
Levi Ashcroft 1 and 7
Harvey Langford 4 and 10
Murphy Reid 5 and 16
Leonardo Lombard 3 and 11
Cooper Hynes 19 and 29
Jobe Shanahan 18 and 27

 

[giantroo]

Which Key Forwards should North Melbourne target at the draft?

View attachment 451441853_8360098270675922_1905659126379380247_n.mp4

 

[Merlin007]

No Merlin007, I'm pretty sure Josh has just played against his own age.

thanks; I did a bit of follow up after your first reply; Smillie had a big game for the academy agains the footscray VFL side, and was also among the best vs Coburg

 

[Ichiro #51]

That there is why there wont be any splitting and kings ransoms.

People are delusional for thinking otherwise, the only club with incentive is Gold Coast and the absolute best result for them only occurs if they keep their current Pick 7 & 8.

It's also close to a worst case scenario for most of the comp.

In that scenario, Gold Coast get a double dip with Lombard and take two other top 10 picks like Trainor and Lalor.

Essendon get a double dip with Kako as he goes at their natural selection and could simply select Lindsay and match Kako the pick after.

Adelaide would get Draper if they want him, so don't need to trade up.

Ditto anyone that really wants Trainor.


Doubt there's much jostling for top pick places other than a position here or there.

Fremantle could legitimately set themselves up for a flag in this even draft if they don't follow the Richmond fools gold.

I think most clubs will be looking to buy into the top 30, so clubs like Sydney and Gold Coast who ended up with our PP's would be absolutely laughing at this point.


The AFL better adjust the points table and new bidding rules immediately if they are bringing in these NGA rules.

It’s almost not worth discussing any scenarios until we know what the **** is going on with points/bids/NGA rules.

Absolute clown show, even by afl standards.

 

[ToxicMegaPunts]

Which Key Forwards should North Melbourne target at the draft?

View attachment 2050547

I was half expecting Twomey to burst into laughter and proclaim "North? Key Forwards? North don't draft no key forwards! First two picks will be inside mid and a half-back!".

 

[ohmygewd]

Rank	Cal Twomey AFL July Rankings	Jasper Chellappah ESPN July Rankings
1	Levi Ashcroft	Sid Draper
2	Josh Smillie	Jagga Smith
3	Finn O'Sullivan	Leonardo Lombard
4	Harvey Langford	Finn O'Sullivan
5	Murphy Reid	Josh Smillie
6	Jagga Smith	Sam Lalor
7	Luke Trainor	Levi Ashcroft
8	Sam Lalor	Tobie Travaglia
9	Sid Draper	Luke Trainor
10	Bo Allan	Harvey Langford
11	Leonardo Lombard	Xavier Lindsay
12	Taj Hotton	Joe Berry
13	Tobie Travaglia	Taj Hotton
14	Harry Armstrong	Isaac Kako
15	Isaac Kako	Bo Allan
16	Xavier Lindsay	Murphy Reid
17	Joe Berry	Alex Dodson
18	Jack Whitlock	Jobe Shanahan
19	Cooper Hynes	Christian Moraes
20	Tom Gross	Harry Armstrong
21	Samuel Marshall	Ben Camporeale
22	Christian Moraes	Kayle Gerreyn
23	Alex Dodson	Jack Whitlock
24	Alix Tauru	Samuel Marshall
25	Harrison Oliver	Jonty Faull
26	Matt Whitlock	Tom Gross
27	Jobe Shanahan	Harry O'Farrell
28	Jonty Faull	Matt Whitlock
29	Thomas Sims	Cooper Hynes
30	Noah Mraz	Hamish Davis

Yes, very interesting how each sitesare quite different in their rankings! So to further muddle it, l added a 3rd site:

Rank	Cal Twomey AFL July Rankings (170724)	Jasper Chellappah ESPN July Rankings (170724)	Michael Alvaro/CRM July Rankings (160724)
1​	Levi Ashcroft	Sid Draper	Josh Smillie
2​	Josh Smillie	Jagga Smith	Finn O'Sullivan
3​	Finn O'Sullivan	Leonardo Lombard	Jagga Smith
4​	Harvey Langford	Finn O'Sullivan	Levi Ashcroft
5​	Murphy Reid	Josh Smillie	Sam Lalor
6​	Jagga Smith	Sam Lalor	Luke Trainor
7​	Luke Trainor	Levi Ashcroft	Leonardo Lombard
8​	Sam Lalor	Tobie Travaglia	Sid Draper
9​	Sid Draper	Luke Trainor	Bo Allan
10​	Bo Allan	Harvey Langford	Murphy Reid
11​	Leonardo Lombard	Xavier Lindsay	Taj Hotton
12​	Taj Hotton	Joe Berry	Xavier Lindsay
13​	Tobie Travaglia	Taj Hotton	Christian Moraes
14​	Harry Armstrong	Isaac Kako	Samuel Marshall
15​	Isaac Kako	Bo Allan	Joe Berry
16​	Xavier Lindsay	Murphy Reid	Jack Whitlock
17​	Joe Berry	Alex Dodson	Tom Gross
18​	Jack Whitlock	Jobe Shanahan	Matt Whitlock
19​	Cooper Hynes	Christian Moraes	Harry Armstrong
20​	Tom Gross	Harry Armstrong	Isaac Kako
21​	Samuel Marshall	Ben Camporeale	Jobe Shanahan
22​	Christian Moraes	Kayle Gerreyn	Tobie Travaglia
23​	Alex Dodson	Jack Whitlock	Harry O'Farrell
24​	Alix Tauru	Samuel Marshall	Noah Mraz
25​	Harrison Oliver	Jonty Faull	Harvey Langford
26​	Matt Whitlock	Tom Gross	Harrison Oliver
27​	Jobe Shanahan	Harry O'Farrell	Alex Dodson
28​	Jonty Faull	Matt Whitlock	Alix Tauru
29​	Thomas Sims	Cooper Hynes	Cooper Hynes
30​	Noah Mraz	Hamish Davis	Logan Smith

 

[shinboner magic]

From what I’ve seen Lalor should be higher - probably pick 4

Looks very degoey like

 

[HBFlanker]

If Trainor is still rated 5-9 by draft night, for the love of god Brady please split the pick.

Gold Coast will 100% need to get in early for Lombard.

its literally there for us on a platter.

 

[Sphynx]

If Trainor is still rated 5-9 by draft night, for the love of god Brady please split the pick.

Gold Coast will 100% need to get in early for Lombard.

its literally there for us on a platter.

And what if the offer is Pick 3 for Pick 8 and Pick 20?

 

[HBFlanker]

And what if the offer is Pick 3 for Pick 8 and Pick 20?

Pick 8 and next years first from the Suns I would do for Pick 3.

Fremantle would come for pick 3 if they think they are a chance for Warner too. Would have to be in the trade period though.

 

[DesertRoo]

And what if the offer is Pick 3 for Pick 8 and Pick 20?

you bid on Lombard at pick 3

 

[Better Loosen Up]

Ok talent spotters,

• how confident are we that Armstrong, Shanahan and J Whitlock will be players, and
• in the event we end up with pick ~22/23 as our second, would you be comfortable just waiting to see which of these players is still available at that pick, or would you be tempted to shuffle our first and second around to ensure we get the best key forward of the bunch?

I would throw Gerreyn into that group as well

 

[noobermensch]

Murphy Reid has been the biggest bolter in the draft class through this Champs series, from back end of the first round to comfortably inside the top 10. He done this by showing how his innate poise and class becomes more valuable the higher the level and the more intense the pressure. In this final champs game he didn't have his most prolific game, but there were a few moment of sheer class and creativity that few if any can match in this draft pool.

 

[DrZaius]

Thanks - I do personally rate performances against men; do we know whether Smillie has form in that regard?

Never understood this point of view tbh. There are plenty of players in the state leagues that seem dominant against their peers but aren't good enough for AFL level, so their relative performance can hardly be used as a measure of a players full potential.
As an indicator of how a (in theory) less physically developed player copes with the increased physicality of playing against hardened bodies? Sure. But we've also seen plenty of cases of more physically developed players start off AFL life well and stagnate as their peers catch up.

Pitting teams of players that are likely to be drafted in the next year or two, of the same age and roughly same levels of physical development head to head and seeing who is a cut above on a more or less even playing field is surely more representative of potential no? They are going to be the ones making up the bulk of AFL teams in the future after all.

 

[noobermensch]

A wild ride of ups and downs in this game for Trainor. In the opening half he was matched up predominantly on Jonty Faull and blanketed him extremely well. In the second half he was shifted onto Jack Whitlock who exposed some of Trainor's limitations against the super tall 200cm forwards as Whitlock outmarked him on several occasions by simply reaching up to a higher point than Trainor was capable of, and Trainor failed to use his body or block his run at the footy. During this period, Trainor also committed some damaging turnovers by foot and seemed to be out of sorts. But in a final dramatic twist, he pushed himself forward with seconds remaining and Metro in need of a goal, won the pivotal free kick and 50 meter penalty and kicked the winning goal from point blank range.

 

[giantroo]