Preview Round 21, 2024: GWS Giants v Hawthorn, Sun 4 August, 1.10pm AEST @ Manuka Oval

[DogDaySonny]

They do that, every player does have a "Pressure Points" tally (sum of all pressure acts x their pressure rating) it's just not widely provided. We only get Pressure Acts, and when a media outlet decides to provide something else, we get that too.

Yeah, it could be pretty rewarding to be a stats nerd with an AFL side (most rewarding with Hawthorn, of course). Just working pressure acts. Where on the ground do you corral, and where to you push hard to make contact? I imagine they have an overall line-up potential rating algorithm (oooh, a neural network even!) that balances defensive and offensive metrics for a selected side against the coming opposition, working in possible opposition selections and optimising the overall rating potential of a lineup.

Now that I think about it, I would not be surprised if the selection meeting doesn’t start with, “The computer says this is GWS’s top three lineups and this is ours. It optimises this as the best selection. Let’s get to picking.”

And it makes me wonder if clubs don’t have real-time feedback on recommended moves given the current stats of the game, like a chess computer rating possible next moves. If clubs don’t have that level of algorithm-driven insight (AI even!), then they soon will.

 

[KermitJagger]

Yeah, it could be pretty rewarding to be a stats nerd with an AFL side (most rewarding with Hawthorn, of course). Just working pressure acts. Where on the ground do you corral, and where to you push hard to make contact? I imagine they have an overall line-up potential rating algorithm (oooh, a neural network even!) that balances defensive and offensive metrics for a selected side against the coming opposition, working in possible opposition selections and optimising the overall rating potential of a lineup.

Now that I think about it, I would not be surprised if the selection meeting doesn’t start with, “The computer says this is GWS’s top three lineups and this is ours. It optimises this as the best selection. Let’s get to picking.”

And it makes me wonder if clubs don’t have real-time feedback on recommended moves given the current stats of the game, like a chess computer rating possible next moves. If clubs don’t have that level of algorithm-driven insight (AI even!), then they soon will.

I think they'd definitely have some sort of model which informs how other teams play, but one thing that makes it difficult and that Champion Data don't do at all well is quantifying the off ball stuff. They're very good at determining impact where the play is unfolding, but the further out from the contest you go the less they have. A lot of that still needs human coaches to look at and determine the rationale and pattern behind why teams structure up and defend the way that they do.

I'd love to work in an AFL club opposition analysis or stats department though, it'd be a great experience.

 

[Phil McCreviss]

They are not at home Chad.

The game is in Canberra.

Electrickery Touchwood

 

[Franko Armani]

Need to find a way to get Morrison in. 31 disposals (24 kicks) with 3 goals, 7 marks and 6 tackles.

No need, Harry’s a great VFL player.

Finn to starting 18, Bruest to sub perhaps. Can’t see any other changes unless enforced.

I do wonder whether we need to give Scaife a game on the run home, just in case we need to call up a replacement KPF in September.

 

[Hawkspot]

Gunston in to play on their intercept defenders again.

Finn’s done nothing wrong but I’d have him make way, can’t play as sub again and doesn’t fit our 22.

Similar to Mackenzie, Mitchell, and Morrison missing out - they don’t deserve to but there’s no room in the team currently.

Get the ball to ground and go to work again. Interesting to see how they try to match up on our small forwards.

 

[Yardie]

Gunston in to play on their intercept defenders again.

Finn’s done nothing wrong but I’d have him make way, can’t play as sub again and doesn’t fit our 22.

Similar to Mackenzie, Mitchell, and Morrison missing out - they don’t deserve to but there’s no room in the team currently.

Get the ball to ground and go to work again. Interesting to see how they try to match up on our small forwards.

You could start him and tag Whitfield, sending Breust to the sub.

 

[Roddy]

Tough game, we only just scraped over the line against them last time with a lucky umpiring decision, at OUR home away from home…

 

[Manila_Hawk]

Electrickery Touchwood

Shine tiny Sun

 

[Sixpence]

Tough game, we only just scraped over the line against them last time with a lucky umpiring decision, at OUR home away from home…

There was nothing lucky about that umpiring decision. It was a very clear downfield free.

We are also in much better form and have much more confidence since then. Look at the two Adelaide games (incidentally before both GWS games), 27 points on our home deck vs 66 on theirs. Nothing is guaranteed, but we have every reason to be confident about this.

 

[jenniferHAWKinS]

Tough game, we only just scraped over the line against them last time with a lucky umpiring decision, at OUR home away from home…

We played terribly in the 1st half, travelling much better at the moment.

 

[RX Hawk]

He doesn't like a tag. Hopefully we put a bit of work into him because if we don't he will use his class to pierce us

This a good observation and a good comment.

 

[Bugs1977]

Did GWS get any injuries or concussions?

This is be the hardest since the Geelong game I feel.

Briggs did get a stinger to his shoulder but even though he wasn't 100% he played the game out. If he plays I'd like Meeky to give it a good stretch.

 

[Hawk88]

According to Wheelo, GWS is third in pressure acts over the last five weeks behind Collingwood and Geelong. And Hawthorn is dead last.

Sometimes I don’t get these stats. I think I must be reading them wrong.

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

You cant pressure the ball when you have it most of the time haha

 

[theiaofseed]

Tough game, we only just scraped over the line against them last time with a lucky umpiring decision, at OUR home away from home…

In: Breust, Ward, Watson, Meek

Out: Gunston, Reeves, Mitchell, Mackenzie

Those are some pretty damn big inclusions.

 

[TylerDurden]

Kelly and Cogs ruled out apparently.

 

[DogDaySonny]

Are tickets already sold out for this game? I just decided to drive up to Canberra and I can’t get two tickets. As far as I can tell there are only two individual seats left in the stadium and they are in different sections. Am I missing a trick on access to tickets?

 

[peetoo]

There was nothing lucky about that umpiring decision. It was a very clear downfield free.

We are also in much better form and have much more confidence since then. Look at the two Adelaide games (incidentally before both GWS games), 27 points on our home deck vs 66 on theirs. Nothing is guaranteed, but we have every reason to be confident about this.

Didn’t GWS get a lucky win year before. Would not be surprised at a repeat

 

[The Chad and I]

Isolating one metric is not gonna tell us much. Look at the results and their opponents.

Giants are just going ok right now.
Nothing to be scared about if we show up.

They are formidable on their day of course, but so are we.

According to Wheelo, GWS is third in pressure acts over the last five weeks behind Collingwood and Geelong. And Hawthorn is dead last.

Sometimes I don’t get these stats. I think I must be reading them wrong.

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

 

[peetoo]

Our inexperience at the venue is not a good thing.

If I remember their players checked out when that game got too hard for them. It’s the key I think

 

[SSSSSS]

Finn would absolutely smash Lachie.

Need our boys to smash Bedford at every chance. No doubt he will try to clamp Day or Newk.

 

[Walshawk]

Are tickets already sold out for this game? I just decided to drive up to Canberra and I can’t get two tickets. As far as I can tell there are only two individual seats left in the stadium and they are in different sections. Am I missing a trick on access to tickets?

Sold out. Grab any seats you can then you can sit on the hill/GA.

 

[Rich]

Looks like it's a sell out.

Looking forward to the vibe on the hill, have tickets for it and hoping it's Hawks fans causing the sellout!


edit
just read on the GWS board that it's the first time they have sold out all three games in Canberra, good on them.

 

[BlueWaterHawk]

Tough game, we only just scraped over the line against them last time with a lucky umpiring decision, at OUR home away from home…

We've improved since then though. Significantly.

 

[Blackhawk42]

If you're hitting up Canberra for the weekend, make sure to check out BentSpoke (Braddon) or Capital Brewing (fyshwick) for a pre or post game beer.

Two of the best in the country.

I'll be checking out Cypher Brewing on Saturday on the way in as well. New kids on the block making some BIG stuff.

I believe Capital beers are available at Manuka Oval as well.

Pumped for the weekend. If we can cap it off with a win it would be icing on the cake!

 

[eldorado]

They do that, every player does have a "Pressure Points" tally