Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[The Nostradamus]

Richmond fans on here have been absolutely drinking their own bathwater after being kissed on the d*** by Freo, GC and WCE in the trade period.

The key difference is that draft picks don't elect a club and force a trade with a particular team.

While 6 + 10/11/18 looks like the most appropriate trade, there is no restriction on us figuring something out with the Saints or Dee's.

The Saints in particular would probably be keen to get either FOS or Lalor as a point of difference in their midfield. 7 + F1 (+ 32 or F2) for 2 is definitely a possibility if the Tigers decide to be stubborn.

Still gets us Tauru or Armstrong, and banks more capital for next year.

also more than happy to just bring in FOS/Lalor ourselves

this is why we are in a win win situation

we either get one of them or get 6 and 10/11

 

[Twangler]

I'm not keen on trading 2 unless we get value for it. Despite backing ourselves into a corner by trading pick 25, it isn't a reason to accept unders for 2 IMO.

There should really be only three options:

Trade Pick 2 for 6 & one of the 10/11 picks.

Trade F1 for 6 or one of the 10/11 picks.

Take the best player on the board at Pick 2.

...

Unfortunately we aren't a club that thrives when backed into a corner, so my expectations are low.

So are you saying you’d prefer Sullivan or Lalor at pick 2 then a combination of Tauru and Whitlock/Shanahan/Faull at 18? I’d hope we do the latter given where we are at with our developing kp prospects

 

[speedy]

I think it would be criminal to walk away from this draft with only 2 kids.

This list needs high turnover until it gets better.

I’d be looking at 4 players. So bob work some magic and dig yourself out of the hole you created by only having pick 2 and junk change.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

I think it would be criminal to walk away from this draft with only 2 kids.

This list needs high turnover until it gets better.

I’d be looking at 4 players. So bob work some magic and dig yourself out of the hole you created by only having pick 2 and junk change.

Probably why I'd take 6,18,20 for 2 and a F3.

We need more talent coming through the door. It's as simple as that for mine.

 

[backtothedraft]

Probably why I'd take 6,18,20 for 2 and a F3.

We need more talent coming through the door. It's as simple as that for mine.

I think something close to that deal could get done but would have to be with a F2

 

[Makeshift Park]

Tauru's second half against the Stringrays in the CTL finals has turned everyone's head and mainly ours by the looks of it.

At that point people probably thought of him as a 10-14 prospect given how aggressive and strong of an interceptor he'd developed into across the year.

He looked like an alpha, mobile, aggressive, modern KPF/CHF in that game and turned the tide in that game when moved up forward however. Dominant in the air, involved at ground level, setting the tone for forward pressure, his endurance numbers are excellent and he was getting up and down the ground even intercepting the ball as part of the forward half zone.

The fact he's grown an inch since preseason, his vertical numbers, long arms and game style you can see why he's bolted.

Everyone laments not having an additional pick for Caddy last year, but there were question marks with Nate. He played like a flanker at time, he liked the ball on ground level, whilst good overhead with long arms, he wasn't quite KPP size and how that might translate on a genuine #1 200cm AFL KPD. He was hot and cold throughout the season.

I don't have any of those same reservations with Tauru. He's taller, he's more aggressive in the air than Caddy, he's right at the pointy end of young talls and attacking the footy in the air and competitiveness (Im talking Jono Brown, Riewoldt etc) he's just as mobile and quick. He's got a big tank for a tall. With his vertical and the strength of his hands, he's going to be a handful for any defender at AFL level, also a genuine swingman whether forward or back.

Clubs would see the potential of Charlie Curnow 2.0 and I think I agree with them after that game. You can just imagine him with 10kg's. The fact he's looked like James Sicily for most of the year in defence, only further strengthens his prospects.

His sample size as a forward is admittedly very small, but I think some clubs would view that as a positive. He's come from the clouds this season, had he played more forward, he might not even be an option, even as high as #6.

Sometimes you only need to see flashes of a player, they were there in spades in that final. So much so I'd rate him ahead of Cadman in his draft year comparatively now.


IF of this is not to say we should just accept anything for #2 though.

Imagine pairing him up with Chom at opposite ends of the ground for the next decade and flipping their positions at will.

Two big and agile crazy-brave mofos attacking everything they can.

It'd be a sight to behold.

 

[DuckYeah]

Tauru's second half against the Stringrays in the CTL finals has turned everyone's head and mainly ours by the looks of it.

At that point people probably thought of him as a 10-14 prospect given how aggressive and strong of an interceptor he'd developed into across the year.

He looked like an alpha, mobile, aggressive, modern KPF/CHF in that game and turned the tide in that game when moved up forward however. Dominant in the air, involved at ground level, setting the tone for forward pressure, his endurance numbers are excellent and he was getting up and down the ground even intercepting the ball as part of the forward half zone.

The fact he's grown an inch since preseason, his vertical numbers, long arms and game style you can see why he's bolted.

Everyone laments not having an additional pick for Caddy last year, but there were question marks with Nate. He played like a flanker at time, he liked the ball on ground level, whilst good overhead with long arms, he wasn't quite KPP size and how that might translate on a genuine #1 200cm AFL KPD. He was hot and cold throughout the season.

I don't have any of those same reservations with Tauru. He's taller, he's more aggressive in the air than Caddy, he's right at the pointy end of young talls and attacking the footy in the air and competitiveness (Im talking Jono Brown, Riewoldt etc) he's just as mobile and quick. He's got a big tank for a tall. With his vertical and the strength of his hands, he's going to be a handful for any defender at AFL level, also a genuine swingman whether forward or back.

Clubs would see the potential of Charlie Curnow 2.0 and I think I agree with them after that game. You can just imagine him with 10kg's. The fact he's looked like James Sicily for most of the year in defence, only further strengthens his prospects.

His sample size as a forward is admittedly very small, but I think some clubs would view that as a positive. He's come from the clouds this season, had he played more forward, he might not even be an option, even as high as #6.

Sometimes you only need to see flashes of a player, they were there in spades in that final. So much so I'd rate him ahead of Cadman in his draft year comparatively now.


IF of this is not to say we should just accept anything for #2 though.

I don't have any of those same reservations with Tauru. He's taller, he's more aggressive in the air than Caddy, he's just as mobile and quick. He's got a big tank for a tall. With his vertical and the strength of his hands, he's going to be a handful for anyone whether forward or back.

Set shot?

 

[ansonholt]

Many of you want to split pick two. In an even draft I can see why. However, for your consideration, in the last seven drafts, this is what we'd have if we split 2 for 6 & 20, for example, which is roughly the same amount of points:

Year	Pick 2	Pick 6	Pick 20ish (after f/s, academy picks)	VERDICT
2023	Colby McKercher	Caleb Windsor	26: Will Graham	Pick 2
2022	Harry Sheezel	Cameron McKenzie	24: Charlie Clarke	Pick 2
2021	Finn Callaghan	Jye Amiss	22: Josh Goater	Pick 6 & 20
2020	Will Phillips	Nik Cox	24: Blake Coleman	Either
2019	Noah Anderson	Fischer McAsey	22: Deven Robertson 2 Deven Robertson Age 23 Ht 185cm Wt 84kg Pos. M/F Career Season Last 5 D 7.0 2star K 3.0 1star HB 4.0 3star M 0.0 1star T 3.0 5star CL 0.0 1star D 7.0 1star K 3.0 1star HB 4.0 3star M 0.0 1star T 3.0 4star CL 0.0 1star D 7.0 2star K 3.0 1star HB 4.0 3star M 0.0 1star T 3.0 5star CL 0.0 1star	Pick 2
2018	Jack Lukosius	Ben King	23: Jez McLennan	Either
2017	Andrew Brayshaw	Jaidyn Stephenson	20: Callum Coleman-Jones 21 Callum Coleman-jones Age 25 Ht 200cm Wt 104kg Pos. Fwd Career Season Last 5 D 13.0 3star K 6.0 2star HB 7.0 4star M 3.0 3star T 5.0 5star G 0.0 1star No current season stats available D 13.0 4star K 6.0 3star HB 7.0 5star M 3.0 3star T 5.0 5star G 0.0 1star	Pick 2

Yes, I know, Sheezel was pick 3, but that was after Ashcroft as a f/s, so he was effectively pick 2. Same for Phillips in 2020 after JUH went #1.

Look at the 2017 draft. We literally HAVE pick 6 and pick 20 from that draft. I think we'd rather have Brayshaw. Only once has splitting pick 2 been the better option. Four times it's been better to have pick 2.

VERDICT: Keep pick 2.

 

[DuckYeah]

I think it would be criminal to walk away from this draft with only 2 kids.

This list needs high turnover until it gets better.

I’d be looking at 4 players. So bob work some magic and dig yourself out of the hole you created by only having pick 2 and junk change.

Split pick 2 and we get 3 young players.

 

[My Left Foote]

They don’t usually send the brightest in the first wave of attack - thanks for being the sacrificial lamb

 

[Ruckle]

Many of you want to split pick two. In an even draft I can see why. However, for your consideration, in the last seven drafts, this is what we'd have if we split 2 for 6 & 20, for example, which is roughly the same amount of points:

Year	Pick 2	Pick 6	Pick 20ish (after f/s, academy picks)	VERDICT
2023	Colby McKercher	Caleb Windsor	26: Will Graham	Pick 2
2022	Harry Sheezel	Cameron McKenzie	24: Charlie Clarke	Pick 2
2021	Finn Callaghan	Jye Amiss	22: Josh Goater	Pick 6 & 20
2020	Will Phillips	Nik Cox	24: Black Coleman	Either
2019	Noah Anderson	Fischer McAsey	22: Deven Robertson	Pick 2
2018	Jack Lukosius	Ben King	23: Jez McLennan	Either
2017	Andrew Brayshw	Jaidyn Stephenson	20: Callum Coleman-Jones	Pick 2

Look at the 2017 draft. We literally HAVE the pick 6 and pick 20 from that draft. I think we'd rather have Brayshaw. Only once has splitting pick 2 been the better option. Four times it's been better to have pick 2.

VERDICT: Keep pick 2.

Here's the full list (*=pick 2, #=pick 6. Pick 20-something is listed after academy and f/s selections)
--------------------
2023
Harley Reid
* Colby McKercher
Jed Walter
Zane Duursma
Nick Watson
Ryley Sanders
# Caleb Windsor
.
.
26 Will Graham (after f/s & academy)

2022
Aaron Cadman
Will Ashcroft (f/s)
* Harry Sheezel
George Wardlaw
Elijah Tsatas
Bailey Humphrey
# Cameron McKenzie
.
.
24 Charlie Clarke (after f/s & academy)

2021
Jason Horne-Francis
Sam Darcy (f/s)
* Finn Callaghan
Nick Daicos (f/s)
Mac Andrew
Josh Rachele
Josh Ward
# Jye Amiss
.
.
22 Josh Goater (after f/s & academy)

2020
Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (academy)
Riley Thilthorpe
* Will Phillips
Logan McDonald
Braeden Campbell (academy)
Denver Grainger-Barras
Elijah Hollands
# Nick Cox
.
.
24 Blake Coleman (after f/s & academy)

2019
Matt Rowell
* Noah Anderson
Luke Jackson
Lachlan Ash
Dylan Stephens
# Fischer McAsey
.
.
22 Deven Robertson (after f/s & academy)

2018
Sam Walsh
* Jack Lukosius
Izak Rankine
Max King
Connor Rozee
# Ben King
.
.
23: Jez McLennan (after f/s & academy)

2017
Cam Rayner
* Andrew Brayshaw
Paddy Dow
Luke Davies-Uniacke
Adam Cerra
# Jaidyn Stephenson
.
.
20 Callum Coleman-Jones

Appreciate the work you have done there but arent we hoping for 6 and 10 or 11?

 

[DocSholl]

If we don't or cant split, would any of the resident draft experts just take Tauru at 2?

 

[Shermanator]

Just waiting for Wreck-em Ralphy to get on his soap box and start spruiking Pick 2 for 11 & 20 ‘Is great for North’ agenda in his paper and Fox Footy gigs..

You know it’s gonna happen, just a matter of time..

 

[DocSholl]

I said experts Nostra

 

[ansonholt]

Appreciate the work you have done there but arent we hoping for 6 and 10 or 11?

I had to edit it multiple times.

2 won't translate into 6 & 10 or 6 & 11. 2 for 6 & 20 is roughly the same amount of points. If we want 6 and 10 or 11 we'd have to give up more. I was looking purely at a direct value comparison.

 

[The Nostradamus]

I said experts Nostra

yes it is why i responded
you're welcome

pick 2 is FOS/Lalor if we keep it despite me wanting smillie

 

[DesertRoo]

I had to edit it multiple times.

2 won't translate into 6 & 10 or 6 & 11. 2 for 6 & 20 is roughly the same amount of points. If we want 6 and 10 or 11 we'd have to give up more. I was looking purely at a direct value comparison.

a future 3rd should do it

 

[roos_fanatic08]

If we don't or cant split, would any of the resident draft experts just take Tauru at 2?

Nah. I honestly don't think I'd be all that keen with a pick inside the top 12ish. Too many others I rate before him.

 

[Wild Bill]

I genuinely mean no offense but this is an extremely lazy and overall horrible argument that removes context and nuance from the discussion.

The discussion is sliding back - I don't agree with it unless the offer is amazing. More than happy to take pick 2 to the draft - where history says we will get a much better player than we will later in the draft.

 

[Souup]

The discussion is sliding back - I don't agree with it unless the offer is amazing. More than happy to take pick 2 to the draft - where history says we will get a much better player than we will later in the draft.

History and 'facts' would have told the Dogs to trade up in 2013 too because Pick 4 was a historically shit pick. I suppose we should have traded back (or ahead) when we had pick 4 (and picked LDU) in 2017 because the pick was historically bad? Maybe trade back to a pick which had a better hit rate historically?

It's an argument that is ridiculous because it checks the brain at the door.

 

[backtothedraft]

Nah. I honestly don't think I'd be all that keen with a pick inside the top 12ish. Too many others I rate before him.

If we hold at 2 your preference would be FOS/Draper?

Lets say we slide to 6 and 18 what your preferences look like at each pick?

 

[KingNorth23]

yes it is why i responded
you're welcome

pick 2 is FOS/Lalor if we keep it despite me wanting smillie

We need a Lalor or Langford more than a Smillie

 

[KingNorth23]

If we hold at 2 your preference would be FOS/Draper?

Lets say we slide to 6 and 18 what your preferences look like at each pick?

Sid Draper is one of my favorite players in the draft but I doubt he goes pick 2 due to his ACL. Also I wouldn't want a player with no big injury history just too much of a risk

 

[Lomas]

Nice to hear on SEN that we are the club that really needs to nail this draft with TAS coming in and raiding our young stars, followed by chuckles all 'around.

 

[SWMD]

People so used to getting bent over 6 & 18 are being put up as reasonable?

6 & 11

f2 for 20

they've got 10,000 points ffs

Hold the line.