Preview 2024 National Draft Preview Thread

[wormy]

Yeah I wouldn’t do it if I were a tigers fan either. But I would be tempted by 2 and F1 for 6, 10 and one of the later first rounders. Tigers need multiple years to attack the draft and our F1 would be perfect for you (albeit agreed that this is a deep draft this year so I’d try to keep at least 4-5 first rounders)

You're right, I'm tempted. Realistically Richmond could see something in that.

Tigers take 2 top mids at 1 and 2, then another sliding mid at 11.

Then Richmond take a couple of talls towards the end of first round and head to next year with 2 first rounders.

I think North would be happy with that as well if you thought you could move up the ladder a bit in 2025.

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[Chip Scab1]

View attachment 2146186

 

[wormy]

Oh wormy, the bubble hasn't been popped and its not going to be, the well established draft of all time is true but what a lot of people are forgetting are a few important details.
1/ The top six midfielders in this draft are in different ways elite, after that you have a very very strong and even draft.

2/ Like St Kilda and Melbourne who both need an elite midfielder, they are there if you have the picks, if you have the courage and if you back in your knowledge that quality trumps over quantity most times.

3/ List managers and recruiters have sometimes a vastly different opinion on players that supporters do and sometimes do things that supporters would laugh at if someone told them that a certain scenario might happen. One classic example is West Coast, not one supporter thought their club would do what they did and look what happened? A lot of supporters have been saying {like the media} the same old thing about this draft without checking the facts and telling the rest of the story.

4/ A classic example is Carlton, even though every second person is sprouting an even draft Carlton moved at warp speed to get that pick 3, now why do you think they did that? Answer, to get that elite midfielder of their choice. A little tip, Carlton won't be the only one to do this and get that star midfielder

True, anything could happen for sure. I just think 6 and 11 for 2 is unrealistic from a Richmond perspective.

To be fair I think teams like Carlton who are might contend might be more likely to target and move up for a specific player. Whereas Richmond is in a different spot considering we won twice in 2024 and then proceeded to trade half our team lol. We'd be slightly more inclined to go for a quantity approach, as evidenced by how many picks we've gone to acquire.

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[The Nostradamus]

Even though I truly think we split pick 2 but wouldn’t it be a so good & a kick in the balls for Carltank if we just pick FOS on draft night with pick 2 ?!
I can just see them on draft nite scrambling for like Wtf ? Who do we go for now ?!!

The good news is I think FOS goes top 2 no matter which clubs have the first 2 picks

 

[King Hansen]

Came to suss what Kangas fans were saying about splitting your pick...

I hate to pop the bubble, but there's absolutely no chance Richmond would trade out pick 10 or 11 to move up 4 spots from 6 to 2, in what has been well established as one of the most even drafts of all time.

That trade would be a significantly worse outcome for the Tigers as opposed to just taking our picks 1, 6, 10 and 11 to the draft. Effectively, it would mean giving up a top 10 pick to rise 4 spots.

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It's not really about the pick. It's about the player now.

 

[Wild Bill]

Came to suss what Kangas fans were saying about splitting your pick...

I hate to pop the bubble, but there's absolutely no chance Richmond would trade out pick 10 or 11 to move up 4 spots from 6 to 2, in what has been well established as one of the most even drafts of all time.

That trade would be a significantly worse outcome for the Tigers as opposed to just taking our picks 1, 6, 10 and 11 to the draft. Effectively, it would mean giving up a top 10 pick to rise 4 spots.

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Check out the last 10 number 2 and number 6 picks.

I hope we stay with 2.

 

[Shermanator]

Came to suss what Kangas fans were saying about splitting your pick...

I hate to pop the bubble, but there's absolutely no chance Richmond would trade out pick 10 or 11 to move up 4 spots from 6 to 2, in what has been well established as one of the most even drafts of all time.

That trade would be a significantly worse outcome for the Tigers as opposed to just taking our picks 1, 6, 10 and 11 to the draft. Effectively, it would mean giving up a top 10 pick to rise 4 spots.

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[speedy]

Came to suss what Kangas fans were saying about splitting your pick...

I hate to pop the bubble, but there's absolutely no chance Richmond would trade out pick 10 or 11 to move up 4 spots from 6 to 2, in what has been well established as one of the most even drafts of all time.

That trade would be a significantly worse outcome for the Tigers as opposed to just taking our picks 1, 6, 10 and 11 to the draft. Effectively, it would mean giving up a top 10 pick to rise 4 spots.

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You talk a lot of sense, too much sense for this board. But you haven’t factored in our secret weapon… B.O.B.

 

[The Talent Scout]

They don’t usually send the brightest in the first wave of attack - thanks for being the sacrificial lamb

wormy likes this!

 

[4cunningTonneTruck]

True, anything could happen for sure. I just think 6 and 11 for 2 is unrealistic from a Richmond perspective.

To be fair I think teams like Carlton who are might contend might be more likely to target and move up for a specific player. Whereas Richmond is in a different spot considering we won twice in 2024 and then proceeded to trade half our team lol. We'd be slightly more inclined to go for a quantity approach, as evidenced by how many picks we've gone to acquire.

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The team moving up always pays a premium. How much can depend but usually to move into the top 5 of any draft it's usually a big premium. 6+11 is only a surplus of about pick 33 points wise. 6+18 is a negligible surplus of pick 55 points wise. While it's an even draft, the recruiters will all know who other teams want. It sounds like there is a top 3 tier forming of Lalor, FOS and Smith (maybe 4 with Draper added in). Tigers have gone all in on this draft and nailing the picks will either set your rebuild up for success or many years of pain. The median games played for a player selected at pick 2 is 213 games. The median games played for a player picked at 6 is around 125. That's a huge difference. North are in a position where we have selected many players in the top 3 so we can afford to drop down. Tigers only have 1 pick in the top 3 this year. It statistically becomes far more speculative after pick 3.