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  1. Sizzlepack

    Bigman’s Training Reports

    Apologies for the public tag bigman but I sent you a DM that I'm hoping you can take a look at!
  2. Sizzlepack

    Bigman’s Training Reports

    Think I've written this before but I recently spoke to someone who currently works as a data analyst for an AFL club and he said his models had Rankine as the third-best midfielder in the AFL this season. Lots can happen that's beyond our/his control, especially injury, but his talent and impact...
  3. Sizzlepack

    One Percenters

    A piece on the evolution of recruitment and player evaluation, based on a conversation with someone who works in list management at an AFL club: https://www.onepercenters.net.au/p/beyond-the-eye-test-how-analytics
  4. Sizzlepack

    Player Watch Darcy Fogarty - Re-Signed to End of 2031

    This probably isn't what you mean, but Fogarty recorded a higher player rating in his seventh season (2024) than Hawkins did in his (2013) https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_player_profile.html?ID=2dc423 https://www.wheeloratings.com/afl_player_profile.html?ID=228206
  5. Sizzlepack

    Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread (Wed Nov 20 to Fri Nov 22)

    It's hardly a stretch, given he did it for years at another club.
  6. Sizzlepack

    Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread (Wed Nov 20 to Fri Nov 22)

    He didn't say ANB plays the same role as Rankine, he said that his role – and the amount of defensive running he does – will free up Rankine (much like he did at Melbourne with Petracca).
  7. Sizzlepack

    Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread (Wed Nov 20 to Fri Nov 22)

    Very little new stuff in Gettable. Pretty funny that "Crows narrow sights on Pick 4" was just a 30-second response to a viewer question rather than an actual segment, despite getting top billing in the show's title. Pretty much all I've learnt from the last couple of weeks is that there's very...
  8. Sizzlepack

    Player Watch Darcy Fogarty - Re-Signed to End of 2031

    Happy with this. Fogarty was never going to leave, but the length of the deal makes me think it's probably at below-market rates given the security this provides him with.
  9. Sizzlepack

    Prediction 2025 Most Important Player

    Fun fact: I recently spoke to someone who works in list management for an AFL club. He said that according to his models, Rankine was the third-best midfielder in the competition this year. Getting a full season out of him is essential.
  10. Sizzlepack

    List Mgmt. 2024 List Mismanagement and Trading Part 2

    ROB leaving feels like some motivated reasoning plus 2+2=5 stuff, based on the fact he's studying and will enter free agency. I guess it's possible – particularly because you think his next contract won't be so generous – but I've not actually heard anything about him being interested in doing...
  11. Sizzlepack

    Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread (Wed Nov 20 to Fri Nov 22)

    Treloar (good accumulator with average disposal) with some of Warner's athletic traits?
  12. Sizzlepack

    Analysis Why pick 4 is the most important selection the club will have in the next decade.

    Agree that it's a very important pick. In general, I'm cautiously optimistic about the long-term prospects of our list build, but the reality is that no player that we've drafted since the rebuild began in 2019/2020 has yet become a genuine star. I think we're all confident that some of those...
  13. Sizzlepack

    Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation Part 3

    Just astonishing hypocrisy to, with one breath, accuse anyone who took issue with the GWS function – and, indeed, modern "woke society" (how original!) – as "lacking nuance" and then, with the next, to go on a "Jarryd Hayne was innocent" crusade. Wonder what the women who listen to the podcast...
  14. Sizzlepack

    Welcome Welcome to Adelaide: James Peatling - Traded with F3, F4 for F2

    Very few things I want more right now than the 15-second video of him awkwardly saying "My name's James Peatling, and I'm an Adelaide Crow."
  15. Sizzlepack

    Welcome Welcome to Adelaide: James Peatling - Traded with F3, F4 for F2

    Think people are overthinking the future picks. We'll probably use them given we'll have at least 5 players coming off the list next year. Really excited to see Peatling in the tri-colours, reckon he'll be a very good player for us.
  16. Sizzlepack

    Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation Part 3

    Yep. That macca guy (no idea if he has history on this board) in particular seems to have a very strange agenda against Jenny.
  17. Sizzlepack

    Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation Part 3

    There's a Richmond F3, which will be the first pick of the round. I called it Pick 40 and it generated Pick 4 as the result. Call it Pick 3. I'd still do that deal, especially with Bolton being – on paper – such a nice fit for Freo.
  18. Sizzlepack

    Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation Part 3

    Robbo's top 50 is not a legitimate barometer of player quality in any sense. The deal values Bolton at about Pick 4. The unique characteristics of the draft might eventually skew it slightly in Richmond's favour but for now I like the deal for both sides. Bolton is a gun.
  19. Sizzlepack

    Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation Part 3

    Because the Saints would laugh us out of the room. From next year, we'll be able to use future picks from T+2 and T+3 years. More tools to get a trade like that done.
  20. Sizzlepack

    Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation Part 3

    I'm assuming we try for a big fish trade/FA next year (LDU, NWM, Phillipou etc) and then supplement the list with some late picks/rookies. Maybe we trade up for a Sharp. Hard to see fewer than 5 outgoings next year.
  21. Sizzlepack

    Welcome Welcome to Adelaide: James Peatling - Traded with F3, F4 for F2

    My read on why we're haggling so hard to keep the F2 is because we'll have a bunch of vacant list spots in 12 months and we trust Hamish with late picks.
  22. Sizzlepack

    Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation Part 3

    Usually when no parties are fully satisfied, that signals that it's a fair deal. This feels a bit different. FWIW, here's how I have it: WCE – big loss Carlton – big risk (F1, F2, 12 and Owies for 3 is a lot) Richmond – moderate win
  23. Sizzlepack

    Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation Part 3

    Yeah I agree. Funnily enough, I don't particularly like this deal for either Carlton or WCE. Imo the only clear winners are Richmond: Baker is good, but 14 in this draft is a very valuable pick.
  24. Sizzlepack

    Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation Part 2

    They had to reduce their rookie list by 5, not the senior list. But they're still tight for list spots, especially with another clutch of academy kids coming next year.
  25. Sizzlepack

    Welcome Welcome to Adelaide: James Peatling - Traded with F3, F4 for F2

    I think an F2 is par. Obviously our exact finish next year will determine if it's slight overs or slight unders, but I'm content to do the deal at that price.
  26. Sizzlepack

    Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation Part 2

    Dogs rejecting North's offer of Pick 25 for Caleb Daniel + Pick 48 is absolutely wild.
  27. Sizzlepack

    Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation Part 2

    No chance (imo) Richmond agree to a deal that's essentially Pick 6 + Pick 1 (2025) for Pick 4 + Pick 4-12 (2025). Too much risk.
  28. Sizzlepack

    Rumour 2024 Rumours and Speculation Part 2

    Realistically, it's at least another 2 years to shift all those guys (and that's under the assumption that we don't have any players who shift into that category in the meantime). Can't see us having fewer than 5 departures next year. It's what makes me wonder if we're all slightly overthinking...
  29. Sizzlepack

    Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread (Wed Nov 20 to Fri Nov 22)

    It's a speculative pick (which will probably be part of the Peatling deal anyway) but given we weren't going to use 46, it's still a value-positive for us.
  30. Sizzlepack

    Resource 2024 AFL Draft discussion thread (Wed Nov 20 to Fri Nov 22)

    Sure, but the assertion from combine sceptics always seems to be that Lockett, at the condition he was throughout his career, would still dominate. He absolutely wouldn't. He's a hell of a lot fitter now than when he was playing.
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