Player Watch #13 Clayton Oliver – UNPRECEDENTED 4x B&F, 3x AA, 2x AFLCA Winner and Premiership Player (formerly)

[Scythe94]

OK, I've removed about three pages of posts.

Please do not use this thread to speculate about Oliver's private life – medical or otherwise.

Regardless of the veracity of your rumour, or what you know/have heard, if it's not public knowledge, just don't post it.

I don't want to turn this place into Demonland, but if you can't see the potential harm that this sort of rumour-spreading can cause (regardless of your intentions), then perhaps it's best if you take a bit of a break.

Thanks.

 

[Topkent]

All good - welcome to your opinion of course and I'm not trying to be antagonistic on your board. But I'd simply ask which part of my logic do you disagree with?
The plus is his undeniable quality and then the minuses (IMHO) are his age, contract status, recent injuries/history/estrangement from the club. On balance I think he's worth 6-10. What do you think he's worth?

The whole he's 26 so he only has 7 years left. That's multiple premierships if the right team takes him. He's absolutely worth a top 5 pick and a top 10 pick. You're getting a guaranteed 30 disposal contested footy winner. Pick 7 is what you pay for someone like Rankine whos all potential.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Either would Jimmy Toumpas, Sam Weideman or Cale Morton.

Excellent examples. I guarantee this football department isn't selecting a Jimmy Toumpas or Cale Morton or taking a chance on a KPF if they trade Oliver. The confidence they must have in who they are targetting would be thru the roof to have Oliver available. I'll guarantee they become a gun.

 

[Bob Neil]

Think of it this way. What are the odds we get as much out of whoever we get from a 6-10 pick than the rest of Oliver's career?

As I said in my earlier post I think he's probably got 5-7 seasons left so you'll get another 100-150 games out of him (putting injuries aside which is an unknown). Based on Draftguru stats there's been ~100 players picked in that 6-10 range and on average they play 133 games. So the quantity of games you'd expect is roughly a wash but Oliver's average quality of game is probably better than the average pick 6-10. So I think the odds are that you'd probably get more of out Oliver than a draft pick but (i) that contract means you're paying over the odds for him versus a draft pick and (ii) there's major risks hanging over Oliver at this stage so a draft pick might be a safer bet at this stage...especially if you can parlay it into a deal for pick 1.

But to answer your question I think the expected output from Oliver versus pick 6-10 are not greatly different.

 

[BaliDemon]

Excellent examples. I guarantee this football department isn't selecting a Jimmy Toumpas or Cale Morton or taking a chance on a KPF if they trade Oliver. The confidence they must have in who they are targetting would be thru the roof to have Oliver available. I'll guarantee they become a gun.

Maybe, maybe not. Let’s wait five years to find out. Good plan.

 

[Topkent]

As I said in my earlier post I think he's probably got 5-7 seasons left so you'll get another 100-150 games out of him (putting injuries aside which is an unknown). Based on Draftguru stats there's been ~100 players picked in that 6-10 range and on average they play 133 games. So the quantity of games you'd expect is roughly a wash but Oliver's average quality of game is probably better than the average pick 6-10. So I think the odds are that you'd probably get more of out Oliver than a draft pick but (i) that contract means you're paying over the odds for him versus a draft pick and (ii) there's major risks hanging over Oliver at this stage so a draft pick might be a safer bet at this stage...especially if you can parlay it into a deal for pick 1.

But to answer your question I think the expected output from Oliver versus pick 6-10 are not greatly different.

That's an absolutely insane way to look at it. You're saying every single game played by every single player is the same value. The last 7 years of Andrew McLeod's career are only worth 7 years of David Mackay because they are the same amount of games

 

[Bob Neil]

The whole he's 26 so he only has 7 years left. That's multiple premierships if the right team takes him. He's absolutely worth a top 5 pick and a top 10 pick. You're getting a guaranteed 30 disposal contested footy winner. Pick 7 is what you pay for someone like Rankine whos all potential.

Rankine (cost pick 5) is (and was at the time we got him) definitely more potential than proven - especially compared to Oliver. But he's also four years younger so we should be getting 9-11 years out of him versus 5-7 for Oliver and he doesn't come with a 7 year, $1m plus (and growing with CBA) deal around his neck. Like it or not that's a millstone you've created and which detracts from his value.

In all likelihood he doesn't get traded so we won't know his worth but I think it's highly unlikely that he's worth both a top 5 and top 10 pick and I've stated my reasons...what are the reasons supporting your position?

 

[Bob Neil]

That's an absolutely insane way to look at it. You're saying every single game played by every single player is the same value. The last 7 years of Andrew McLeod's career are only worth 7 years of David Mackay because they are the same amount of games

I said the opposite: "Oliver's average quality of game is probably better than the average pick 6-10. So I think the odds are that you'd probably get more of out Oliver than a draft pick"

 

[Topkent]

Rankine (cost pick 5) is (and was at the time we got him) definitely more potential than proven - especially compared to Oliver. But he's also four years younger so we should be getting 9-11 years out of him versus 5-7 for Oliver and he doesn't come with a 7 year, $1m plus (and growing with CBA) deal around his neck. Like it or not that's a millstone you've created and which detracts from his value.

In all likelihood he doesn't get traded so we won't know his worth but I think it's highly unlikely that he's worth both a top 5 and top 10 pick and I've stated my reasons...what are the reasons supporting your position?

I really don't need to validate my opinion if you think Rankine and Oliver are the same value. That's a conversation ender.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Maybe, maybe not. Let’s wait five years to find out. Good plan.

Disagree with needing to wait 5 years, players can contribute early now. Look at Ashcroft and Sheezel last year.

 

[kool kangas]

I'd take that.

We then trade 3 and 5 to West Coast for pick 1 and still keep pick 10 and our 13.

Sorry for the intrusion but if the Eagles have their mind set on any player in the top 5 then this would be a good trade. However if they are after a specific player then you might find that with North having pick#2 they might take that player before the Eagles could get him...Melbourne would need to get Norths pick#2 for them to get a chance at Pick #1

 

[Topkent]

Disagree with needing to wait 5 years, players can contribute early now. Look at Ashcroft and Sheezel last year.

Nick Daicos, Errol Gulden etc. When they're good they are good

 

[Shooter#17]

Either would Jimmy Toumpas, Sam Weideman or Cale Morton.

Jack watts, Luke Molan, Lucas Cook... Oooh i like this game

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Jack watts, Luke Molan, Lucas Cook... Oooh i like this game

Well done on choosing players drafted by a completely different football department who couldn't draft.

 

[Shooter#17]

All good - welcome to your opinion of course and I'm not trying to be antagonistic on your board. But I'd simply ask which part of my logic do you disagree with?
The plus is his undeniable quality and then the minuses (IMHO) are his age, contract status, recent injuries/history/estrangement from the club. On balance I think he's worth 6-10. What do you think he's worth?

with all due respect you are a dead set clown, pick 6-10 for probably the best record ever for mid by the age of 25 and at 26 just coming into his prime now, get off the crack pipe.

 

[Bluelegs]

As I said in my earlier post I think he's probably got 5-7 seasons left so you'll get another 100-150 games out of him (putting injuries aside which is an unknown). Based on Draftguru stats there's been ~100 players picked in that 6-10 range and on average they play 133 games. So the quantity of games you'd expect is roughly a wash but Oliver's average quality of game is probably better than the average pick 6-10. So I think the odds are that you'd probably get more of out Oliver than a draft pick but (i) that contract means you're paying over the odds for him versus a draft pick and (ii) there's major risks hanging over Oliver at this stage so a draft pick might be a safer bet at this stage...especially if you can parlay it into a deal for pick 1.

But to answer your question I think the expected output from Oliver versus pick 6-10 are not greatly different.

Oliver has had one significant injury in his career, a bad hamstring and that's it, he's as reliable as you can get. Averaged 30 disposals, 6 tackles and 7 clearances a game over his career. This year in the games he did play he had even better numbers. You'd be lucky if there was one kid per draft who has that level of performance. As far as his contract goes, that's what the stars of the game are paid.

Despite all the rumours on bigfooty and social media the main point of contention that is being reported comes down to how Clayton believes his hammy was handled by the club vs how the club believes Oliver handled it.

We will absolutely get a better offer than pick 6-10.

 

[TheBoss]

Jason Taylor never misses in the first round!

 

[Shooter#17]

Rankine (cost pick 5) is (and was at the time we got him) definitely more potential than proven - especially compared to Oliver. But he's also four years younger so we should be getting 9-11 years out of him versus 5-7 for Oliver and he doesn't come with a 7 year, $1m plus (and growing with CBA) deal around his neck. Like it or not that's a millstone you've created and which detracts from his value.

In all likelihood he doesn't get traded so we won't know his worth but I think it's highly unlikely that he's worth both a top 5 and top 10 pick and I've stated my reasons...what are the reasons supporting your position?

hes actually only 3 years younger, jeezus you cant even get the basics right

 

[Shooter#17]

Well done on choosing players drafted by a completely different football department who couldn't draft.

They picked up Max Gawn, but yes i agree Taylor is much more astute

 

[Topkent]

with all due respect you are a dead set clown, pick 6-10 for probably the best record ever for mid by the age of 25 and at 26 just coming into his prime now, get off the crack pipe.

Maybe settle on the hyperbole. Think guys like Gaj have him covered.

 

[Bob Neil]

hes actually only 3 years younger, jeezus you cant even get the basics right

The reference was to when we traded for him a year ago when he was 22 and what he was worth then (pick 5) versus what Oliver is worth now at age 26.

 

[A11dAtP0w3R]

Jason Taylor never misses in the first round!

If we trade Oliver for pick 19 that we used on Laurie you're welcome to melt.

 

[BaliDemon]

Jason Taylor never misses in the first round!

I’ll see you and raise you!

 

[Shooter#17]

Maybe settle on the hyperbole. Think guys like Gaj have him covered.

not by the age of 25 he doesnt

 

[Jamurp]

You should care about draft picks, if it wasn't for draft picks Oliver wouldn't be a Melbourne player.

we're in a premiership window now though, don't want to lose a senior player for some kid who will shit the bed in a big final, we have enough bedshitting players as it is.

 

[Topkent]

not by the age of 25 he doesnt

Well he does. By 26 Gaj was a 2 time flag winner, 3x Leigh Matthews winner, 4xAA and 2x BNF, 3x Coaches player of the year and just a better player. It's not even an argument