2012 Emirates Melbourne Cup thread and Formtalk (Merged)

[sethlad]

9. Sanagas......$51.....to win 10k

Theres good mail for this horse but the US form is a worry for me

seth

 

[Ricketts]

9 Sanagas - Reasonable at Caulfield, but no thanks given American form. Best finish in Aus so far is 6th (ie last) in the Caulfield Stakes. Will risk him.

 

[sethlad]

10 Ethiopia..$21.....6k e/w

Cox Plate run was good enough to put him in the finish

seth

 

[mayhem]

Mount Athos has to be considered for the first 3.

 

[sethlad]

11. Fiorente...$31.....$400

has the ability but it seems like an after thought

seth

 

[Ricketts]

10 Ethiopia - On the up but is he seasoned enough? Has he been prepared for this all along? Ride him the same as Cox Plate and he's no chance. Will put him in my tri.

 

[Ricketts]

11 Fiorente - Couldn't bare to see him win given trainer. And due to trainer I give him no hope. That said I'd probably include in the tri given a win over Red Cadeaux and/or fear of him actually running well.

 

[sethlad]

12. Galileos Choice..$17.....to win 60k

Another winner who would be shorter if the rain arrived,trainer seems happy with him

seth

 

[Ricketts]

12 Gallileo's Choice - Respecting the stable. Should I be concerned about their complaining about the track before the race is even run? Or are they just foxing / overly picky. Top chance on nothing more than a hunch I'd say.

 

[half_back_flank]

Sorry, just got back from golf.

11. Fiorente's euro form stacks up favorably to others, but as Seth said, he is one of the very few who havn't been building to this for 12 months, willing to risk.

Don't see how Gai can claim it if it wins, hardly seen the horse since it arrived it seemed.

 

[sethlad]

13. Glencadam Gold.$51 to $41......10k e/w & well backed?

They dont win after running so poorly in the C Cup

seth

 

[Chris3Judd]

Looks like Im here with all my friends......
2. Americain $7 to win 10k & hard to lay

form is good but track condition may be against

seth

I seem to recall that it rained in 2010 when he won although the ground was still reasonably firm.

 

[half_back_flank]

12. Galileo's Choice.

Weld is bullish and has had him pegged as a MC horse for a couple of years. Have to respect his opinion, big chance.

 

[sloth6]

Surely the small amount of rain we have had wont make one iota of difference to the track. It's been 25 degrees all bloody day and it will be steamy again tomorrow.

Amercain for mine. Great form, great nick and we know it can run the journey.

 

[Ricketts]

13 Glencadam Gold - Can't win after Caulfield run. Probably be back there with Voila Ici again.

 

[deledio_gun]

1. Dunaden - A live hope for mine. Obviously loves it here. If you haven't watched it's run in the Hardwicke then go watch it. Extremely unlucky and finished super strong. Hard to find negatives other than the risk the weight is too much to carry over 3200m.

2. Americain - can obviously win but is it making a habit of running nice races but not winning? Needs some cut in the ground to win imo.

3. Jakkleberry - looks to lack a turn of foot. Looked the first one beat in the CC but battled on okay considering. Looks like it will stay so I'd say a top 10 hope but lacks that turn of foot when it needs it to win.

4. Red Cardeaux - Hard to find negatives other than no prep run but didn't seem to matter last year and is better at the weights this time around. If it's on song it won't be far away. It just comes and comes to the line.

5. Winchester - Hasn't done much for me. I just can't see it winning over these other horses with a clear class advantage. Will appreciate a good track though.

6. Voilà ici - Won't stay imo. Will sit off the speed for a change but was the first beaten in the CC so can't see it challenging.

 

[sethlad]

14.Green Moon.$18......1k e/w

Hard to be on him after MV run,better suited here but not sure if he's good enough

seth

 

[half_back_flank]

13. GG

No. Horse is desperate for a spell, injury concerns last week, going to be done by the 800 metre mark.

 

[Chism]

Just a tidbit on Red Cadeaux......

It is coming out of Barrier 18 which is the only barrier to have never won the race.

Just sayin.....

 

[Ricketts]

14 Green Moon - Won't stay.

 

[sethlad]

15. Maluckyday.....$16..1k e/w

He was good at Geelong but it was a sprint home,short enough now for me

seth

 

[half_back_flank]

14. GM - Has been unders all prep, I still think that. Not much went right in the CP, but can't having him after that and the injury concerns during the week,.

 

[Ricketts]

15 Maluckyday - Unders on loyalty / sympathy money. Surely can't be going as well as 2 years ago. Will run a good race though as he's in good form, but surely not good enough to be a winning factor here.

 

[half_back_flank]

Maluckyday is a huge chance. But for it to happen you have to be expecting him to find a few lengths on the return to Flem, yet I don't think it is beyond him. The Geelong Cup wasn't the ideal lead up due to walking for the first 1800m, but gee it was a fantastic finish for him.

Stable have worked wonders with ATH too.

 

[sethlad]

16.Mourayan.....$26...$500 e/w

Thought he had a better chance last year when scr on race morning

seth