16 Mourayan - Odd prep, and kept short in the markets because of that. Can't in any world see myself waking up on Wednesday morning to the news that Mourayan is the Melbourne Cup winner.
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- Oct 16, 2008
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16. Mourayan.
Not for me, I don't like the Sydney form.
Not for me, I don't like the Sydney form.
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MQFP.
Needs to improve on the CC run, but not by much to feature in the finish. Corey Brown scares me though. Stable has high opinions, according to them he is just as good as Mount Athos and had him pegged as a Arc horse.
Needs to improve on the CC run, but not by much to feature in the finish. Corey Brown scares me though. Stable has high opinions, according to them he is just as good as Mount Athos and had him pegged as a Arc horse.
Cousin Jed
Retired President of BigFooty
Niwot needs the track to be flooded overnight
Greening Magic
Club Legend
Mourayan is my best roughie. Using English Stayers prep. Worth a small e/w ticket.
Chism
Franks & Beans
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19. TDB. My best roughie this year and impossible to ignore at 100-1 on the tote.
Screaming for 2 mile and ignore the Geelong Cup run which was a sprint home and an unsuitable distance.
Screaming for 2 mile and ignore the Geelong Cup run which was a sprint home and an unsuitable distance.
My Tri-
Duneden
Sanagas (been watching super close the last month, can run the distance, watching replays of US races, seems to be able to stay all day (class is the worry)
Lights Of Heaven
Mount Athos
Duneden
Sanagas (been watching super close the last month, can run the distance, watching replays of US races, seems to be able to stay all day (class is the worry)
Lights Of Heaven
Mount Athos
17 My Quest For Peace - Not sure he'll go the full 3200m. Will whack away up close to the speed and can see him coming in a respectable 6th. Reminds me of Mad Rush.
Cousin Jed
Retired President of BigFooty
TDB - 11 starts on a good track 0-0-0
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Niwot - Hasn't shown much this prep, Sydney Cup he beat nothing except Efficient off a break.
TDB - Yes he needs it wet, but MK has been working on getting him used to firm ground, apparently was trained almost exclusively on sand before coming out. Even with the likely lack of give, over the odds at 67s.
TDB - Yes he needs it wet, but MK has been working on getting him used to firm ground, apparently was trained almost exclusively on sand before coming out. Even with the likely lack of give, over the odds at 67s.
How many runs has TDB had 2400+ on good tracks? Or has it failed due to distance as much as the track condition?
18 Niwot - Not going well. Even a heavy 9 will bring others further into calculations than him.
Like taking an 8 horse box tri in the Cup and get about 15%, but this year I am really struggling to eliminate enough horses to get down to the 8. Currently sitting on 11 and making a real case for them all to keep in there. In racebook order I have:
Dunaden - a winner, must include
Americain - with the doubts over the glue on the hoofs and whether fully fit or not, and the fact it tends to run well without winning I may leave this out (or chuck it one out in 4th for a first four!)
Red Cadeaux - know it will get the distance, prepped specifically all year
Cavalryman - Godolphin have a knack of getting a place at big odds (Crime Scene, Central Park), and very solid form coming in. You know it will get the distance.
Ethiopia - Is it too green? Could be the Maluckyday of this year. Untapped.
Galileo's Choice - like the talk from the Weld camp, good form, will be taking on double fixed odds
Maluckyday - Great sectionals at Geelong were influenced by the lack of speed in the race, but can't leave out after performance in 2010 and dropping 5-5.5kgs from last two starts.
Mourayan - probably the closest to being left out, but had this earmarked as a cup horse for a while. Think it can sneak into the placings at odds.
My Quest For Peace - very impressive on the speed in the Caulfield Cup, only it and LOH really held on of the on-pacers in the hot speed of the race. Distance only query.
Lights of Heaven - see MQFP but actually made ground late in the CC and rated in as the best Cup trial outside of Dunaden
Zabeelionaire - love it's run in the Mackinnon, just watched it's SA and QLD Derby runs again and was very impressed again. Don't think distance is a concern. Can slot in three wide with cover slightly behind midfield and work home.
Really struggling to cut this down at all. Mourayan's probably the closest at the moment, it's best may be top 6 rather than top 3. But outside of that, jeez this year is tough. What do people think here?
Dunaden - a winner, must include
Americain - with the doubts over the glue on the hoofs and whether fully fit or not, and the fact it tends to run well without winning I may leave this out (or chuck it one out in 4th for a first four!)
Red Cadeaux - know it will get the distance, prepped specifically all year
Cavalryman - Godolphin have a knack of getting a place at big odds (Crime Scene, Central Park), and very solid form coming in. You know it will get the distance.
Ethiopia - Is it too green? Could be the Maluckyday of this year. Untapped.
Galileo's Choice - like the talk from the Weld camp, good form, will be taking on double fixed odds
Maluckyday - Great sectionals at Geelong were influenced by the lack of speed in the race, but can't leave out after performance in 2010 and dropping 5-5.5kgs from last two starts.
Mourayan - probably the closest to being left out, but had this earmarked as a cup horse for a while. Think it can sneak into the placings at odds.
My Quest For Peace - very impressive on the speed in the Caulfield Cup, only it and LOH really held on of the on-pacers in the hot speed of the race. Distance only query.
Lights of Heaven - see MQFP but actually made ground late in the CC and rated in as the best Cup trial outside of Dunaden
Zabeelionaire - love it's run in the Mackinnon, just watched it's SA and QLD Derby runs again and was very impressed again. Don't think distance is a concern. Can slot in three wide with cover slightly behind midfield and work home.
Really struggling to cut this down at all. Mourayan's probably the closest at the moment, it's best may be top 6 rather than top 3. But outside of that, jeez this year is tough. What do people think here?
19 Tac De Boistron - Liked him early (pre Geelong). Didn't like his run at Geelong even if it was only a warm up, even if 2400 is unsuitable, even if the pace was unsuitable, even if the track was too hard. They just don't turn it around like that to win the big one. Slow 6/7 up to 3200 is his hope, although we won't get it.
20 Lights Of Heaven - Has never struck me as a stayer. Big unders IMO.
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Lights of Heaven.
Moody having a shocker of a carnival, but she stuck on well in the CC and looks like she will stay but its still a risk. Not good enough to win, but an outside chance at a place.
Moody having a shocker of a carnival, but she stuck on well in the CC and looks like she will stay but its still a risk. Not good enough to win, but an outside chance at a place.
21 Precedence - Won't stay, and is in yuck form. A JRA Cup win (2000m) 2 years ago shouldn't keep him in the field.
Agreed. People look at Sydney form and pot on that but go back a little further and he is tied around Americain (Hayes version admittedly) and Manighar at WFA. Fair weight pull on Americain on that sandown classic run. Don't think it can win but must for multiples imo. He has beaten Dare to Dream and Lights of Heaven this prep, who have ran well in the Lexus or (insert sponsor here) and the CC.
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